Racing September Daily Punt- RIP Mikaela Claridge & Mel Tyndall

[iluvparis]

The Danehill is horrible. A few of the noms have also nominated for the 1400m 3yo race. Not happy Yourdeel has moved to that stable. I dropped Tenley like a hot spud after its last start but woudn't be surprised if it won this.
I bet all those who backed Waging War last start and want to follow up would not be happy that hes in a non winnable race.... I dont like that MJ has had a long break between runs so i will just be barracking for her and watching. Interesting to see how Gallo Chop goes after its trials.
Races seem to really open at Flem at first look.. and i love it!
as for AQ... how on earth are horses like Invincebella and Champagne Cuddles rated higher than a last start 5 lengths group 1 WFA winner... Keep underestimating WA racing snobs it makes better odds for me every single time! (not AQ shes too hyped up to back!)

MJ seemed to go ok off an even longer break last start - seems a solid made up myth.

And AQ's rating is so low because those performances were as a 3yos and she beat horses that are getting belted over here.

 

[HeathySure]

MJ seemed to go ok off an even longer break last start - seems a solid made up myth.

And AQ's rating is so low because those performances were as a 3yos and she beat horses that are getting belted over here.

I have no problems with horses having a break and coming back in distance. but going up in distance is always a worry. It would have to be a proven trainer for me to be confident, and as much as i love MJ i still dont trust the trainer

 

[iluvparis]

I have no problems with horses having a break and coming back in distance. but going up in distance is always a worry. It would have to be a proven trainer for me to be confident, and as much as i love MJ i still dont trust the trainer

This good enough proof for you?

 

[TBellicious]

Mystic Journey has had practically all her runs with a couple of weeks gap between them. Trainer knows this is when she is at her best - he knows what he’s doing.

 

[HeathySure]

This good enough proof for you?

View attachment 743511

nope. different taking on 3yo fillies and taking on the big boys and also different 1400m to 1600m

Look i know you like being argumentative but i want her to win and think she probably will but shes not a betting proposition in this race cos there are ifs and buts. If by some miracle she gets out to $5 yeah then i might have a bet but we both know thats not going to happen and there are better $2 chances to bet on at the weekend.

 

[FallingLiefs]

i think they will back SOJ.

lackluster resumption from MJ, rider, trainer, position in running all big negatives for the shorts on offer. already looks unders in the red. in what i must say is a good field if not top end talent at least reasonable depth.

#prayforhumidor

 

[iluvparis]

nope. different taking on 3yo fillies and taking on the big boys and also different 1400m to 1600m

Look i know you like being argumentative but i want her to win and think she probably will but shes not a betting proposition in this race cos there are ifs and buts. If by some miracle she gets out to $5 yeah then i might have a bet but we both know thats not going to happen and there are better $2 chances to bet on at the weekend.

I'm not being argumentative I am just providing reasonable evidence to disprove your made up myth.

 

[iluvparis]

i think they will back SOJ.

lackluster resumption from MJ, rider, trainer, position in running all big negatives for the shorts on offer. already looks unders in the red. in what i must say is a good field if not top end talent at least reasonable depth.

#prayforhumidor

SOM does have that compelling So Si Bon form

Massively harsh on MJ's first up performance too and all those things you mentioned have been negatives at basically every start she has had to date and she has seemed to overcome them.

But wouldn't expect anything less from Mr Contrarian

 

[FallingLiefs]

SOM does have that compelling So Si Bon form

Massively harsh on MJ's first up performance too and all those things you mentioned have been negatives at basically every start she has had to date and she has seemed to overcome them.

But wouldn't expect anything less from Mr Contrarian

haha every start she had to date

was on her every start* last prep despite you telling me she's not good enough but i guess you might as well jump on the bandwagon when odds go red.

*except when Hartnell should have beat her but hey he was 18:1

 

[iluvparis]

haha every start she had to date

was on her every start* last prep despite you telling me she's not good enough but i guess you might as well jump on the bandwagon when odds go red.

*except when Hartnell should have beat her but hey he was 18:1

Yes but you are never going to tip a hot fave mate - except when you keep getting sucked balls deep into Nature Squib

You had the same doubts first up - she won easily - and now you are saying she was average first up.

If the prices were reversed no doubt you'd be bigging up her first up run and talking down SOM

 

[rideclutch]

I lol'd - she will destroy Dalacat if she finds her BD/GS form.

Looks like the Official Handicappers agree with ME

How is a Blue Diamond win superior to beating Scales Of Justice?

I can't have it.

 

[HeathySure]

I'm not being argumentative I am just providing reasonable evidence to disprove your made up myth.

i literally spent the 1990s and half of the 2000s studying this crap.
I know things have changed but some things still stand the test of time and race fitness is still the number 1 thing a horse needs to be able to win a race.
if you choose to ignore this .. .well its your money

 

[iluvparis]

How is a Blue Diamond win superior to beating Scales Of Justice?

I can't have it.

Ask the Chief Handicapper - I am guessing it is because SA is a complete backwater

 

[iluvparis]

i literally spent the 1990s and half of the 2000s studying this crap.
I know things have changed but some things still stand the test of time and race fitness is still the number 1 thing a horse needs to be able to win a race.
if you choose to ignore this .. .well its your money

Except for MJ last Spring apparently? Why didn't they stand the test of time then?

 

[FallingLiefs]

Yes but you are never going to tip a hot fave mate - except when you keep getting sucked balls deep into Nature Squib

You had the same doubts first up - she won easily - and now you are saying she was average first up.

If the prices were reversed no doubt you'd be bigging up her first up run and talking down SOM

i wouldn't big up her first run but yes, i'd be on MJ. I thought she was plain first up. for the record I don't think SOJ was great last week either, he had a lot go his way and was disappointed late towards the line. that seems to be his level what he's done 4-5 times now.

 

[iluvparis]

I'm also seeing people already talking up Rostro off a Cranbourne trial defeat of a BM 64 horse

 

[FallingLiefs]

Ask the Chief Handicapper - I am guessing it is because SA is a complete backwater

handicappers penalise on previous performance on several guidelines.

Frankel could walk in on debut and still run into Estijaab being 20-40lb the inferior. handicap is irrelevant measure of horses until they are 4-5 in australia.

 

[iluvparis]

handicappers penalise on previous performance on several guidelines.

Frankel could walk in on debut and still run into Estijaab being 20-40lb the inferior. handicap is irrelevant measure of horses until they are 4-5 in australia.

- Seems a complete myth- especially once they have competed in open age black type races

Why don't we see 3yo after 3yo cleaning up in handicap after handicap then?

 

[FallingLiefs]

the only important handicap is when they flatline around a mark.

if you believe that Dalasan going 59,64,69,74,90 is a true indication of his ability give the game away.

 

[HeathySure]

Except for MJ last Spring apparently? Why didn't they stand the test of time then?

Are you are seriously using the same argument as a climate denier in picking small samples of not exact like for like comparisons to prove your theory?
i knew you would be a Donald Trump supporter!

 

[iluvparis]

the only important handicap is when they flatline around a mark.

if you believe that Dalasan going 59,64,69,74,90 is a true indication of his ability give the game away.

Solid question dodge as always leifzy Rating seems fair given it got rolled by La Tene last time it was in a decent racing state.

 

[iluvparis]

Are you are seriously using the same argument as a climate denier in picking small samples of not exact like for like comparisons to prove your theory?
i knew you would be a Donald Trump supporter!

It is the same fecking horse!?!?!! You can't get a better like for like comparison!?!?!

Tell me some of these horses who are having longer breaks and subsequently running ordinary then

 

[FallingLiefs]

- Seems a complete myth- especially once they have competed in open age black type races

Why don't we see 3yo after 3yo cleaning up in handicap after handicap then?

3yo's have a 17% win rate in open metro handicaps in the last year.

i will await your facts to back up your statements.

 

[iluvparis]

3yo's have a 17% win rate in open metro handicaps in the last year.

i will await your facts to back up your statements.

What is their share of starters in races they contest?

 

[FallingLiefs]

What is their share of starters in races they contest?

that's in all handicaps. non listed included. so it's a pointless question that your response wouldn't change if i said 1% or 100%