September Daily Punt - Spring is in the air

[rideclutch]

i don't rate Ken's Dream at all. Weir said "the Mahuta path" and if he becomes a genuine winner like Mahuta was he may well win those sort of races but wouldn't be competitive at the bigger level or where the Melbourne form analysts are suggesting his performances dictate. Weir looks to have a fair idea of what the horse is and his secondary formlines of Detective, Tessera, Archives are horses that sydney trainers have sent south which a worrying indication.

I'm still hoping there's 1 down in melbourne that's more that 2000m horse that is good enough of a guineas. of recent times that's probably Melbournes go. profiling says that horse is already out there and running on ok without winning but i can't see it, if it hasn't started in town yet we will get a fair indication this week with that 3yo mile but that should be all the 3yo's exposed this week.

Hey Doc may be that horse. but i don't know where he gets the staying ability from. so it probably leaves him a bit short.

Ciaron reckons Kaching goes pretty good, looks a Derby type.

He's The Boss was impressive as well, didn't win by much but have a look at how he did it in the run. Still very backward though, maybe too soon.

 

[rideclutch]

Id say the Melbourne colts are on a similar level to those that came through last year, we saw what Press Statement did to them when he came to town and I would have Impending/Divine Prophett on a similar level to him at this stage.

Yeah I think that's a fair comparison.

At least there was SOME kinda ability to them last year though, Bon Aurum was winning off tough runs, Tulsa looked to have upside, Dal Cielo ditto. They were B grade to the Golden Rose colts, but these look even further behind this time.

 

[plays tall 1]

I'm leaning to Whispering Brook for the Thousand Guineas. Great record in WA and looks like she can put herself into the race which is always a good attribute at Caulfield over 1600m. I'm surprised at the generous odds for her after a strong effort first up carrying 2.5kgs and up against that field.

Omei Sword and Yankee Rose are factors no doubt if they come, but the Flight Stakes is on the week before so there's got to be a bit of doubt over them even running.

 

[plays tall 1]

...and Luna Rossa, Murray Baker's Group 1 filly's en route to Melbourne and nominated for the Thousand Guineas. $101 with William Hill.

 

[HeathySure]

There is a horse that won a Mornington maiden the other day called The Horrovian. was first up and led all the way 1st up over 1500 meters. Was supposed to be ridden cold but Oliver went straight to the front and they never saw which way it went. no chance in the guineas, but watch it in the Derby.

 

[Gavin Excell]

yep. on times i'm confused also. first up she was mediocre with scope for a bit of improvement. as a 2yo she was ok with some high quality specking in the majors but being honest she started 100:1. her start last week was a big jump but the money says it probably wasn't a fluke leaving me thinking the training change is an important one. she's basically on Yankee Rose level pre GR for mine which i'm guessing is Yankee Rose post GR too but it's a one off at this stage but one i am assuming she will be able to maintain.

i will note she was a strong class rating horse (3.7L off a slipper as a Melbourne horse 4th up) that improved further into the prep last campaign which may explain some of the money too.

i have it

Whispering Brook
-
Omei
Yankee Rose
Sweet Sherry
Merriest
-
Foxplay
I Am a Star

merriest and sweet sherry both have question marks on sustainability of that form.

Reckon you are overating that MV race with Brooke up top

Also think you've undersold Foxplay

 

[Gavin Excell]

No Hartnell in the "Colgate Optic White Stakes, just 7 nominations including Winx.

The Colgate White optical Stakes?

What is its real name?

 

[Lockyer24]

The Colgate White optical Stakes?

What is its real name?

George Main

 

[Gavin Excell]

George Main

Ah ha

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

**** WH, useless campaigners they are. Backed a horse to place in England, nothing big $50 @2.75 then another $40 @2.60.. Runs 3rd. 14 horse field .. Comes up as a loss on my bet tracker ..

Wtf ring them.. Oh sorry mate, no idea it's an automatic pay thing ...
Soooooo you gonna fix it ??
Oh yeah sure 5-10 min..

Still waiting 2hrs later .. Surly I can ask for a free bonus bet for this shit right ??

 

[Gavin Excell]

George Main

For race name abominations, that is now rivalling the change from the Herbert Power Stakes to the Quickeze Stakes.

 

[iluvparis]

Let's Elope

She had a good long life though

Didn't realise she had died when I read this yesterday Vale to the mare who got me interested in the game. Bart at his best.

 

[FallingLiefs]

The Melbourne 3yos very underwhelming on Sat, slow time, slow sectionals, bunched finished.

I thought Tessera would measure up based on his RTR performance and he did without winning, I'd suggest that Astern has a conservative 5 lengths on them at this stage.

Evacuation is the wild card at this stage but he underwhelmed on the clock when winning first up, looks w good horse but jury out on him for me.

you don't like the 3yo's down the straight from the weekend?

for mine i said during the week i expected the Bobbie Lewis to be one of the higher rated races of the season so far. 3yo's slower early, stronger late. giving weight to all but Generalife and UTL. looks the be the form race of melbourne.

 

[Main Man]

you don't like the 3yo's down the straight from the weekend?

for mine i said during the week i expected the Bobbie Lewis to be one of the higher rated races of the season so far. 3yo's slower early, stronger late. giving weight to all but Generalife and UTL. looks the be the form race of melbourne.

I'd suggest that Archives was probably the one going forward out of the Melbourne meeting, he is a nice type and looks a miler but numbers nothing special with me, I thought they were entitled to go faster overall in the Bobbie Lewis given early sections, all credit to the winner there being first up but other than him I want to be potting the form out of that race.

I also thought the 3yo's were entitled to go through the line stronger than what they did given the slow early pace, I had them running negative splits over the last 400M and not particularly fast overall time, for me still very much 2nd stringers.

The Sydney colts/geldings well ahead of them at this stage.

 

[iluvparis]

Has there been a feature race moved from this Caulfield meeting? Don't remember the Naturalism being on such a poor day historically but could be wrong.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Has there been a feature race moved from this Caulfield meeting? Don't remember the Naturalism being on such a poor day historically but could be wrong.

yes, use to be run on underwood day. also had the rupert clarke too. i'm not sure where the races went or how it works with a gap week. but for the last couple of years at least it's been a terrible day in melbourne.

 

[FallingLiefs]

I'd suggest that Archives was probably the one going forward out of the Melbourne meeting, he is a nice type and looks a miler but numbers nothing special with me, I thought they were entitled to go faster overall in the Bobbie Lewis given early sections, all credit to the winner there being first up but other than him I want to be potting the form out of that race.

I also thought the 3yo's were entitled to go through the line stronger than what they did given the slow early pace, I had them running negative splits over the last 400M and not particularly fast overall time, for me still very much 2nd stringers.

The Sydney colts/geldings well ahead of them at this stage.

ok. i have these as competitive with horses behind Astern. raw time looks historically fast for a soft 5. numbers really stack up with the Bobbie Lewis horses form too. Faatinah obviously back a bit better than previous although not unexpected given it's probably equal to his Goodwood accounting for no cover.

 

[Main Man]

ok. i have these as competitive with horses behind Astern. raw time looks historically fast for a soft 5. numbers really stack up with the Bobbie Lewis horses form too. Faatinah obviously back a bit better than previous although not unexpected given it's probably equal to his Goodwood accounting for no cover.

On my rating scale they are still behind Impending & Devine Prophett.

I liked Faatinahs win as he did all the work in front exposed the entire trip, so don't mind him going forward out of the race but happy to pot the rest.

I didn't like UTL's trial before his first up run, jury was out on his first up run despite being visually impressive and after Saturday I don't think he has come up, or he certainly has not returned in peak form, take him out and there was a distinct lack of quality behind Faatinah, X and Kinglike were talented 3yos but both head cases and question marks on them going forward, Tivaci and We've got this are G3 horses at best with me.

 

[Main Man]

Has there been a feature race moved from this Caulfield meeting? Don't remember the Naturalism being on such a poor day historically but could be wrong.

Very underwhelming isn't it.

 

[iluvparis]

UTL racing like he needs weight relief for mine

 

[Lockyer24]

**** WH, useless campaigners they are. Backed a horse to place in England, nothing big $50 @2.75 then another $40 @2.60.. Runs 3rd. 14 horse field .. Comes up as a loss on my bet tracker ..

Wtf ring them.. Oh sorry mate, no idea it's an automatic pay thing ...
Soooooo you gonna fix it ??
Oh yeah sure 5-10 min..

Still waiting 2hrs later .. Surly I can ask for a free bonus bet for this shit right ??

They are a joke.

I only use them now in case of emergency, as they are my only online account.

 

[FallingLiefs]

On my rating scale they are still behind Impending & Devine Prophett.

I liked Faatinahs win as he did all the work in front exposed the entire trip, so don't mind him going forward out of the race but happy to pot the rest.

I didn't like UTL's trial before his first up run, jury was out on his first up run despite being visually impressive and after Saturday I don't think he has come up, or he certainly has not returned in peak form, take him out and there was a distinct lack of quality behind Faatinah, X and Kinglike were talented 3yos but both head cases and question marks on them going forward, Tivaci and We've got this are G3 horses at best with me.

very happy with UTL heading toward a RC. Smerdon said he was as fat as he had him early doors. he's going well but he probably won't be beating anything until he slides down the weight scale because continually giving 6kg to progressive horses is going to hurt so hopefully gets some relief in the RC. he's the same UTL as he was last year for mine. don't forget last time in he was second up goodwood so was much more forward.

also very happy with Bart's staying prospects over the 1800. I think he's a reasonable chance of beating Palentino next start and could be the better 2000m horse at this stage.

 

[iluvparis]

very happy with UTL heading toward a RC. Smerdon said he was as fat as he had him early doors. he's going well but he probably won't be beating anything until he slides down the weight scale because continually giving 6kg to progressive horses is going to hurt so hopefully gets some relief in the RC. he's the same UTL as he was last year for mine. don't forget last time in he was second up goodwood so was much more forward.

also very happy with Bart's staying prospects over the 1800. I think he's a reasonable chance of beating Palentino next start and could be the better 2000m horse at this stage.

He won't - based on his change in rating since last year he'd get 58.5 if it was run today

 

[Main Man]

very happy with UTL heading toward a RC. Smerdon said he was as fat as he had him early doors. he's going well but he probably won't be beating anything until he slides down the weight scale because continually giving 6kg to progressive horses is going to hurt so hopefully gets some relief in the RC. he's the same UTL as he was last year for mine. don't forget last time in he was second up goodwood so was much more forward.

also very happy with Bart's staying prospects over the 1800. I think he's a reasonable chance of beating Palentino next start and could be the better 2000m horse at this stage.

Smerdon was very bullish on him first up so not sure how much improvement he has to come? Always mixed messages coming from trainers to a point where you pretty much have to ignore them.

John O'Shea said he wasn't happy with the way Astern spelled before his first up run then Beadman was saying after the win in the RTR that he has matured into a proper horse now, a boy to a man or some such thing, for me I take little to no interest in what they are saying other than Price who I think is generally pretty honest.

I have UTL going about 1-2 lengths off what he is capable of and I personally don't see much improvement in him for the campaign, I said last week that his best runs have come when down in the weight so agree that could help but now he is a G1 winner when is he going to get this relief? A couple of kg is not enough relief to be winning the Melbourne handicaps in his current form in my book anyway.

I was harsh in my initial assessment of BHB and his late sections were actually good, however I still think that is about his level, might be good enough to win next time as he might face more or less the same field, that was a big peak for Palentino with me and have to question whether he can repeat at Caulfiled, if he does he will be beating BHB home again.

 

[FallingLiefs]

He won't - based on his change in rating since last year he'd get 58.5 if it was run today

more worried about who he's up against and the weight they get but yes it's going to be hard for him.