September Daily Punt - Spring is in the air

[Main Man]

I'm pretty keen Tango Rain personally, always a risk back on to a firmer surface but RR also done his best work on drier surfaces.

The Star Turn, Kentucky Miss, Capitalist and even Thronum before that is the A grade 3yo form.

Gaurd of Honour looks a good horse with some upside, to be honest its not a bad little race but happy to be with Tango Rain particularly at $4s.

 

[FallingLiefs]

What's he planning for?

just thought someone would at least try beat Winx but they're all probably Kris Lees' running for second destined for failure.

Tosen Stardom racing up there purely for a G1 WFA second next to it's name so craig won't be allowed to try beat her, merely run a race suited to the horse.

Hauraki is a cat that couldn't possibly establish a break on this field and not try and stop at the imaginary wall 200m out. It's somewhat is first up and no way it can possibly find a way to beat Winx.

Winx will jump out, lead and win while every jockey there will be there behind her sedate with trying to get second instead of trying to win a race and potentially running last.

 

[iluvparis]

just thought someone would at least try beat Winx but they're all probably Kris Lees' running for second destined for failure.

Tosen Stardom racing up there purely for a G1 WFA second next to it's name so craig won't be allowed to try beat her, merely run a race suited to the horse.

Hauraki is a cat that couldn't possibly establish a break on this field and not try and stop at the imaginary wall 200m out. It's somewhat is first up and no way it can possibly find a way to beat Winx.

Winx will jump out, lead and win while every jockey there will be there behind her sedate with trying to get second instead of trying to win a race and potentially running last.

If you're going to beat her its not with a horse that has yet to place from 4 starts over a mile and is 0 for 3 in Oz being beat by the likes of Contributor, Awesome Rock and Spillway. He needs to worry how he is going to outsprint Hauraki if they dawdle for starters!

Edit - I agree on your general premise though - was thinking the other day its about time someone tried to do a Hay List and just put the hammer down from the get go to see what eventuates.

Edit Edit - that's what Great Esteem should be doing

 

[Main Man]

If Craig had any brains which is questionable he should get rolling early on Tosen, thats his best chance of running 2nd, hes a tough Japanese horse used to running in fast races, he should get going from the 800M and make the others work to beat him.

 

[iluvparis]

If Craig had any brains which is questionable he should get rolling early on Tosen, thats his best chance of running 2nd, hes a tough Japanese horse used to running in fast races, he should get going from the 800M and make the others work to beat him.

They won't risk gutting him like that if he is on a Cox Plate preparation I would have thought.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Aus throroughred bloodstock won't risk anything I would have thought.

fixed that.

also i agree Great Esteem is actually overs here if that's possible. at least he's rock hard and running well some of these are running on well fresh but he's at his level and going ok. i see them heading to the Naturalism though which IMO is a sound call if they would rather race in a Caulfield Cup.

 

[plays tall 1]

Is Tosen Stardom assured of a Cox Plate start? I know he's high in the market, but he hasn't won a Group 1. The way connections are talking, it seems as if a start is a given. I'm not sure that's the case.

 

[iluvparis]

Is Tosen Stardom assured of a Cox Plate start? I know he's high in the market, but he hasn't won a Group 1. The way connections are talking, it seems as if a start is a given. I'm not sure that's the case.

Yeah I said that earlier in one of the threads - every chance of being balloted out depending on how the final field looks - although Winx might scare enough away that they don't reach capacity.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Is Tosen Stardom assured of a Cox Plate start? I know he's high in the market, but he hasn't won a Group 1. The way connections are talking, it seems as if a start is a given. I'm not sure that's the case.

nope. won't make it yet. same with Raw Impulse for the CC. from memory he was going very well and they opted to go the easier route in the autumn ended up hittting a bog track and a sit and sprint instead of a genuine dry G1. you get what you deserve i guess.

 

[iluvparis]

nope. won't make it yet. same with Raw Impulse for the CC. from memory he was going very well and they opted to go the easier route in the autumn ended up hittting a bog track and a sit and sprint instead of a genuine dry G1. you get what you deserve i guess.

He was going very well.......AGAINST CAMELS

 

[iluvparis]

Assume Tom Melbourne has to win on Saturday too to get into the Caulfield Cup

 

[Main Man]

I don't know why they chose to come here with Tosen to be honest, Turnball looks the perfect race for him to get that G1, 2000M on a big track, likely to get a genuine pace.

Instead they go to a 1600M against the best we have in what looks a sit sprint affair.

Lloyd going to the Turnbull with the TUS en route to the Cox.

 

[FallingLiefs]

He was going very well.......AGAINST CAMELS

actually i'll buy into the same thing you put up for Protectionist. high quality stayer that requires genuine tempo rarely found in australian racing to out grind the rest of the horses. his splits are basically identical in all his starts. hard to explicitly quantify across different tracks and days but to me that's more than just an anomaly.

 

[plays tall 1]

He was going very well.......AGAINST CAMELS

Draught horses do flash past trees!!!

 

[FallingLiefs]

I don't know why they chose to come here with Tosen to be honest, Turnball looks the perfect race for him to get that G1, 2000M on a big track, likely to get a genuine pace.

Instead they go to a 1600M against the best we have in what looks a sit sprint affair.

Lloyd going to the Turnbull with the TUS en route to the Cox.

safer bet for black type and it's a mile which ATB pushed for (stallion wise) reading between the lines with what weir said.

 

[FallingLiefs]

and he ain't beating TUS on their last run anyway.

 

[iluvparis]

actually i'll buy into the same thing you put up for Protectionist. high quality stayer that requires genuine tempo rarely found in australian racing to out grind the rest of the horses. his splits are basically identical in all his starts. hard to explicitly quantify across different tracks and days but to me that's more than just an anomaly.

WTF have you based that on? His Autumn wins under 2000m?

High quality WINTER stayer - they should send him to Warrnambool. He was a handicapper in the UK and pinched a couple of easy BM's in the Autumn over distances <2000. There is zero to suggest he is a high class horse at all let alone high class stayer - just another one where you blew your load way too early mate

 

[Main Man]

Raw Impluse going around in Adelaide on Saturday, the Amralah path of last year it appears.

Thought he was plain first up but if he wins well on Saturday I wouldn't write him off from a CC point of view.

At this point in time the CC and MC appear to be lacking quality.

 

[Main Man]

and he ain't beating TUS on their last run anyway.

Based on what?

Very little between them on their MV runs, they basically had the same runs in transit, copped the same amount of interference and ran virtually identical splits home.

TS was having his first run at the Valley whereas TUS is a proven Valley horse.

I don't favor either horse going forward to the Turnball at this stage and don't know how you can say TUS has a clear margin on him going into the race.

Ill be reserving my judgement on TS until after this weekend and even then might not get a true read on what he can do this campaign.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Based on what?

Very little between them on their MV runs, they basically had the same runs in transit, copped the same amount of interference and ran virtually identical splits home.

TS was having his first run at the Valley whereas TUS is a proven Valley horse.

I don't favor either horse going forward to the Turnball at this stage and don't know how you can say TUS has a clear margin on him going into the race.

Ill be reserving my judgement on TS until after this weekend and even then might not get a true read on what he can do this campaign.

i thought TUS took a bit longer to get rolling visually the clock doesn't back it up. thought it was a stronger run. then TUS also probably improves more over the 2000 and i don't think TS has that much improvement left in him based on his 3 runs in the country. compared to TUS who has runs on the board.

also will fall over when i hear of an asian horse not handling the Valley.

 

[iluvparis]

Raw Impluse going around in Adelaide on Saturday, the Amralah path of last year it appears.

Thought he was plain first up but if he wins well on Saturday I wouldn't write him off from a CC point of view.

At this point in time the CC and MC appear to be lacking quality.

Most likely won't make the field and if he does he won't be good enough. Went backwards only run above 2000 - absolutely ZERO evidence he will get the trip.

 

[iluvparis]

i thought TUS took a bit longer to get rolling visually the clock doesn't back it up. thought it was a stronger run. then TUS also probably improves more over the 2000 and i don't think TS has that much improvement left in him based on his 3 runs in the country. compared to TUS who has runs on the board.

also will fall over when i hear of an asian horse not handling the Valley.

I agree with Liefs - both copped interference but think TUS was slightly more disadvantaged in the run and given how the race developed.

 

[iluvparis]

Amralah won with 58.5 in Adelaide last year - Raw Impulse is carrying 56 - says all you need to know about the two horses. Latter is a potential country cups horse hyped beyond belief. Can be backed at $220 on betfair for the Melbourne Cup for the speed fappers who want to load up.

Given some of the Tosen boom has died down I think RI has taken ownership of hype horse of the spring.

 

[Main Man]

That's a fair bit of speculation there, based on their MV runs there is nothing between them as far as I'm concerned.

To be honest TS performances here over 2000M are very similar to TUS performances last year, as I say there is nothing between them going forward.

 

[Main Man]

I agree with Liefs - both copped interference but think TUS was slightly more disadvantaged in the run and given how the race developed.

Splitting hairs, nothing between them at this stage.