September Daily Punt - Spring is in the air

[iluvparis]

Probably fair - TS has been beaten by Spillway and TUS has been beaten by LV so they both have it in them to lose to cats over 2000 in Australia

 

[Main Man]

Amralah won with 58.5 in Adelaide last year - Raw Impulse is carrying 56 - says all you need to know about the two horses. Latter is a potential country cups horse hyped beyond belief. Can be backed at $220 on betfair for the Melbourne Cup for the speed fappers who want to load up.

Given some of the Tosen boom has died down I think RI has taken ownership of hype horse of the spring.

Didn't say I was backing him this weekend, simply pointing out that he is taking the same path as Amralah from last year.

 

[iluvparis]

Splitting hairs, nothing between them at this stage.

Some of us don't fence sit

 

[iluvparis]

Didn't say I was backing him this weekend, simply pointing out that he is taking the same path as Amralah from last year.

No but you didn't rule him out from a Caulfield Cup perspective - he's got none.

 

[Main Man]

Some of us don't like speculating based on limited evidence, good way to do your dough.

 

[Main Man]

No but you didn't rule him out from a Caulfield Cup perspective - he's got none.

Pointing out that its a very open race at this stage with a distinct lack of quality at the top, something in form and down in the weights could be capable of winning it.

 

[iluvparis]

Pointing out that its a very open race at this stage with a distinct lack of quality at the top, something in form and down in the weights could be capable of winning it.

Good value add - that's basically 90% of Caulfield Cups

And is Raw Impulse that horse?

I'd say he's not in form and won't get into the field.

 

[iluvparis]

Some of us don't like speculating based on limited evidence, good way to do your dough.

I lol'd

 

[FallingLiefs]

That's a fair bit of speculation there, based on their MV runs there is nothing between them as far as I'm concerned.

To be honest TS performances here over 2000M are very similar to TUS performances last year, as I say there is nothing between them going forward.

I disagree. still prefer TS at that g2 level. maybe a MV crystal mile.

 

[iluvparis]

I disagree. still prefer TS at that g2 level. maybe a MV crystal mile.

Too slow for a mile I reckon - I'd be aiming for the Mackinnon and hoping it drops away.

 

[Main Man]

I disagree. still prefer TS at that g2 level. maybe a MV crystal mile.

To be fair I think you have a slightly inflated opinion of TUS, has run on at the end of some brutally runs 1400 & 1600M races passing tired horses, remember he was beaten by He or She in the Blamey, then was good in beating Huraki in the Ranvet but was hardly a run of an elite G1 horse, as far as I'm concerend he isn't much more than a G2 horse himself but given there is virtually no good WFA horses getting around at the moment he is one of the better ones going around.

There is nothing between them based on their first up runs and until we see them again you are purely speculating as to who will go better when they meet again.

 

[Main Man]

Good value add - that's basically 90% of Caulfield Cups

And is Raw Impulse that horse?

I'd say he's not in form and won't get into the field.

Don't know who the horse is yet but Amralah's first couple of runs in Australia were putrid before he found his form, I wouldn't be writing any horse off at this stage.

 

[iluvparis]

Don't know who the horse is yet but Amralah's first couple of runs in Australia were putrid before he found his form, I wouldn't be writing any horse off at this stage.

As I said - good value add. Amralah at least had some quality black type form in Europe to back up the fact he might have some ability.

 

[FallingLiefs]

To be fair I think you have a slightly inflated opinion of TUS, has run on at the end of some brutally runs 1400 & 1600M races passing tired horses, remember he was beaten by He or She in the Blamey, then was good in beating Huraki in the Ranvet but was hardly a run of an elite G1 horse, as far as I'm concerend he isn't much more than a G2 horse himself but given there is virtually no good WFA horses getting around at the moment he is one of the better ones going around.

There is nothing between them based on their first up runs and until we see them again you are purely speculating as to who will go better when they meet again.

i agree i probably slightly overrate TUS. nature of the game that those horses pop up, however nothing currently wrong with He or She form. gave it 3kg in the blamey in a brutal race. gapped the rest. runs great races in an Emirates, 2L behind BHB at WFA at next time at the track/trip 3L behind Palentino huge spike. TS form isn't as pretty, with respect to margins and tempo it isn't probably up to that.

(if i were to david gately this i'd say 3kg in blamey = 2.5L better than He or She = better than worlds best 1400m horse BHB confirmed)

as for the purely speculation. that's all punting is, of course a horse with a higher quality profile (TUS) is going to be allotted a higher improvement factor on their second run because he has a history of saying he can do better. with me, TS doesn't have that body of work behind him you may well rate TS's starts previously higher. i'm not a fan personally. if you have their peak performances equal or top 2 quartiles of performances equal. then i understand your call. but i don't have him that close at all.

 

[Main Man]

I'll reserve my judgement on TS until we see him again but for me there is absolutely nothing between them on all runs you have mentioned, Ranvet, QE & Feehan.

You could also make a case that TS is open to as much and if not more improvement being a lightly raced 6yo with the Weir polish.

Remember that Weir hasn't had him long and only learning about him, all the talk from within the camp is that they have a big opinion of him to a point where he is their number 1 seed ahead of BHB and Palentino.

If they didn't rate him then no chance they would be heading to Sydney to race Winx when he could have run next week in what looks a more suitable race.

 

[iluvparis]

Horses in foreign jurisdictions just run a lot less. It doesn't mean they are not fully exposed. It is only Australian trainers who need to run them into the ground to see how good they are.

As a 6yo with 17 starts he is fully exposed. Now Weir might improve him - but that is pure speculation which you said earlier you don't make calls on. You also said Price is the only trainer you listen too so all of that other info is just noise.

Both are fully exposed older WFA horses and are unlikely to make meaningful improvement from what they have already shown.

The United States has a slightly higher peak and achieved it much more recently than TS which is why he is ahead in my book.

 

[Main Man]

Horses in foreign jurisdictions just run a lot less. It doesn't mean they are not fully exposed. It is only Australian trainers who need to run them into the ground to see how good they are.

As a 6yo with 17 starts he is fully exposed. Now Weir might improve him - but that is pure speculation which you said earlier you don't make calls on. You also said Price is the only trainer you listen too so all of that other info is just noise.

Both are fully exposed older WFA horses and are unlikely to make meaningful improvement from what they have already shown.

The United States has a slightly higher peak and achieved it much more recently than TS which is why he is ahead in my book.

Exactly why I'm reserving my judgement.

I'm not making calls on him either way until he is further exposed, hopefully get more of a read on him this weekend because the only thing the Feehan told us is that he is not going awful.

 

[RWnBluey]

Winx/English double $4 @ TAB

 

[Gavin Excell]

Winx/English double $4 @ TAB

Thats fair

 

[iluvparis]

Winx/English double $4 @ TAB

Where?

 

[Main Man]

TAB put it up for an hour or something.

 

[RWnBluey]

Where?

Was a Formline special

 

[iluvparis]

Was a Formline special

 

[RWnBluey]

TS out. Race has become another barrier trial for Winx

 

[Main Man]

Hopefully Winx gets a proper race when she comes to Caulfield, at least one with some genuine pace in it,she goes around against 5 horses tomorrow and as good as she is does she want to go into a Cox Plate on the back of 3 barrier trials against limited opposition?

If I was Waller I would be putting a bunny in these races instead of his plodding stayers.