Since '94, a side from outside the 8 has made the top 4 every year. Who

[krisholio14]

Hawks are still a fair chance.

yes indeed

 

[Dan26]

In 1997, three of the top-4 missed rthe finals the year before.

Tonight, we have the amazing situation where all the current top-4 missed the finals the year before.

It just goes to show you that people are far too conservative with their ladder predictions for each season. The trend is set to continue.

 

[Tas]

In 1997, three of the top-4 missed rthe finals the year before.

Tonight, we have the amazing situation where all the current top-4 missed the finals the year before.

It just goes to show you that people are far too conservative with their ladder predictions for each season. The trend is set to continue.

So far...

A lot can happen in 6 weeks.

 

[red+black]

The final 8 started in 1994, but I thought I'd go further back in history.

The theory that "a team that finished 9th or worse in one year has made the top 4 the following year" can be extrapolated all the way back to 1988 (apologies if this has already been mentioned).

1993 - Kangaroos (3rd) finished 12th the previous year
1992 - Footscray (2nd) finished 10th the previous year
1991 - Geelong (3nd) finished 10th the previous year, St Kilda (4th) finished 9th the previous year
1990 - West Coast (3rd) finished 11th the previous year
1989 - Geelong (3nd) finished 9th the previous year
1988 - Collingwood (2nd) finished 12th the previous year

If you go further back, the theory breaks down:

1987 - Melbourne (5th) finished 11th the previous year
1986 - Swans (2nd) finished 10th the previous year, Fitzroy (4th) finished 9th the previous year
1985 - Kangaroos (5th) finished 11th the previous year

But if you look at 1983 and 1984, the top 4, and indeed the top 5, were comprised solely of teams that finished 6th at worst in the previous season.

So you could say that this consistent variability started around 1985-1987. Perhaps coincidentally, the first official VFL Draft was held in 1986.

 

[Lunchlady Doris]

I tend to agree with Mark T on Geelong. My biggest worry about them in recent years has concerned their lack of 'go-up' capacity and they won't rectify this weakness for 2007. The side lacks genuine class and has a real blue-collar look about it. Will struggle to make the finals in 2007.

That only leaves Essendon Carlton and the Kangaroos, all of whom will have their work cut out escaping the bottom four, let alone ascending to the top four.

A couple of sides will fall out of the eight and a couple will make it in, but I'd expect any movement into the four to come from a side like the Bulldogs.

Well I guess the dogs have moved. Down.

Lack of 'go-up' capacity. That's a new one.

 

[Lunchlady Doris]

Just like to say well done to Zebra, for fighting the good fight for his club in this thread, against so many detractors, and believe he should have a good laugh about it

 

[krisholio14]

Just a quick question.
Do you actually believe what you type?

North have a stronger list than Essendon, Richmond and Hawthorn?
Pfft, yeah, and Tony Woods was an elite midfielder.

Did I say Vandenberg was Elite?

Answer the question.
Tell me if you really do believe the crap you type.

Stop deflecting away from your silly comments about your list. This thread is not about VDB's captaincy.



I've read some of your posts talking about how you could make the top 8.
It's fanciful dreaming.
Have a look at your list. Better still have a look at your 2006 season and your coach.
Don't start blaming the fitness advisor again.
Have a good hard look and maybe some honesty might start to assemble in your brain and you'll realise Harvey, Grant, Simpson and Archer just aint goin to cut it anymore. They are getting on.
You have to start rebuilding. Lachlan Hansen was a good start, but you'll need more than just him and Jesse Smith to rise from the bottom.

What makes Hawthorns list better in my eyes?
The fact we've drafted players to form a spine in the last three years.
Roughead
Thorp
Franklin
Dowler
Murphy
with a group of mids as well
Ellis
Lewis
Birchall
Muston
Tuck
Moss
Two young ruckman(which I not you have also)
Bailey
Renouf

Add all them to a partnership of Hodge and Mitchell in the centre square who are young, plus Croad, Crawford, Jacobs, Smith, Williams, Guerra and Brown who are are all solid players and I do believe our list has more upside than yours.

So typical of you Zebra. Deflect and insult.

You were the one who made the comment about us finishing bottom year after year and how it didn't constitute a rebuild.
Not all our draftees will make it, that's a given, but our list still looks alot more promising than yours.

Not that I expect you to admit it.

Just be selective and reply to what parts of a post you wish to, insult the other poster and bury your head back into the sand.

2007, year of the Roos.

I wonder what condiments this bloke would like with his humble pie?

 

[jazz]

I wonder what condiments this bloke would like with his humble pie?

I think that the Hawks list is definitely better than the Kangas.

Laidley has them fired at the moment but when Boomer Harvey is always your best player, your future is not looking as good as teams where the younger players are the ones performing well.

The "backs to the wall" mentality at the Kangaroos is serving them well but how long can it hold up? I guess that next week will be a good pointer for the Hawks & Kangas.

 

[The Zebra]

Just like to say well done to Zebra, for fighting the good fight for his club in this thread, against so many detractors, and believe he should have a good laugh about it

It is funny - but most of the good North supporters could see last year for what it was and didn't doubt the quality of our list. Hawthorn supporters have massive chips because they refuse to believe that spending years and years at the bootom of the ladder is not the only way to rise up......well it ain't Hawkies(as the Cats also know)

My predicton of Cats, Port and Roos as the most likely to move into the top 4 is looking OK at rd. 16. Fair way to go though.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Dan26's theory holds watertight again.

From bottom 8 to top 4

Geelong 10th to 1st
Port 12th to 2nd
Kangaroos 14th to 4th

and from this thread that he said someone from top 8 will go to bottom 4
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=304802

Bulldogs 8th (6th after finals) to 13th
Melbourne 7th (5th after finals) to either 14th or 15th depending on Tankmania result.

 

[Scotland]

Bruce talked up the phenomenon during the Bulldogs/Roos match.

When quizzed as to whether it was the work of 'Josh' the statistician, he replied 'this one was a combined effort'.

Looks like newspaper journo's aren't the only ones who use BigFooty as a source of inspiration.

 

[ashley12]

3 out of 4 top 4 from outside the 8 last year.

Overall half the top 8 fell out this year. (Freo, bulldogs, melbourne and st.kilda)

 

[94_Eagles]

Interesting.



Port look to have added some speed to their midfied, and if Treadrea came back and was in form they could rise up the ladder quickly. Cornes at CHb, Tredrea at CHF and the Burgoynes in the guts is a pretty good start.

The Cats could easily rise into the top 4. Plenty of improvement to come from their core group and if Ablett can replicate his late VFL form, and Hawkins provides any type of presence they will have enough scoring options. They are very even over the ground, but speed in midfield is still the biggest flaw. May see Gary jnr spending more time in their which would make a difference.

The Roos finished 5th in 2005 and then had a year this year where pretty much every player played well below previously displayed form. If they can pick up a CHF in the draft to even half cover the gaping hole at CHF then they ould be a chance as they are otherwise pretty even across the ground. A new reliance on young guys in the midfield may see an inconisistency that would see them get that high..

Can't see any of the other teams doing it.

Can I call you C. Ball?

 

[DeadlyAkkuret]

Next will be Brisbane.

 

[ashley12]

Interesting.



Port look to have added some speed to their midfied, and if Treadrea came back and was in form they could rise up the ladder quickly. Cornes at CHb, Tredrea at CHF and the Burgoynes in the guts is a pretty good start.

The Cats could easily rise into the top 4. Plenty of improvement to come from their core group and if Ablett can replicate his late VFL form, and Hawkins provides any type of presence they will have enough scoring options. They are very even over the ground, but speed in midfield is still the biggest flaw. May see Gary jnr spending more time in their which would make a difference.

The Roos finished 5th in 2005 and then had a year this year where pretty much every player played well below previously displayed form. If they can pick up a CHF in the draft to even half cover the gaping hole at CHF then they ould be a chance as they are otherwise pretty even across the ground. A new reliance on young guys in the midfield may see an inconisistency that would see them get that high..

Can't see any of the other teams doing it.

Good call. Who will win the flag zebra

 

[TigerGlory]

Next will be Brisbane.

I agree, i think Brisbane will be the surprise packet next year.

What about Fremantle and St Kilda? Both have a big oppertunity.

 

[Nezzar]

Interesting.



Port look to have added some speed to their midfied, and if Treadrea came back and was in form they could rise up the ladder quickly. Cornes at CHb, Tredrea at CHF and the Burgoynes in the guts is a pretty good start.

The Cats could easily rise into the top 4. Plenty of improvement to come from their core group and if Ablett can replicate his late VFL form, and Hawkins provides any type of presence they will have enough scoring options. They are very even over the ground, but speed in midfield is still the biggest flaw. May see Gary jnr spending more time in their which would make a difference.

The Roos finished 5th in 2005 and then had a year this year where pretty much every player played well below previously displayed form. If they can pick up a CHF in the draft to even half cover the gaping hole at CHF then they ould be a chance as they are otherwise pretty even across the ground. A new reliance on young guys in the midfield may see an inconisistency that would see them get that high..

Can't see any of the other teams doing it.

Beyond astute
one of my favourite posters, ever the optimist, but more often than not with good reason!

 

[DeadlyAkkuret]

I agree, i think Brisbane will be the surprise packet next year.

What about Fremantle and St Kilda? Both have a big oppertunity.

Sadly we're the only ones staying on topic. I think the only way for the Saints is down, before they come back up, they're in bad shape. Fremantle always have a heap of potential, but it rarely eventuates into anything meaningful.

 

[Nezzar]

Ha, i laugh at your optimism. Only a Kangaroo supporter would thing the Roos have even a half decent chance of making the finals next year. "If they can pick up a CHF in the draft", as if, even if they do it takes a while and a couple of pre-seasons to get KPP up to AFL star level

aaand just had to quote the richmond supporter having a go at zebra

 

[Lunchlady Doris]

The obvious choice would be Brisbane I think. Bradshaw back, excellent player who takes another quality defender, can Brown improve again?

I think I'd like to see him crack the ton Is Coleman Medal betting open for next year?

 

[sabre_ac]

This would be one of the greatest thread's in bigfooty's history.

Well done Dan.

 

[Mead]

This would be one of the greatest thread's in bigfooty's history.

Well done Dan.

Just to prove I am small minded, petty and insecure.. I posted the exact same observation on this board over two years before Dan did, and copped a bagging for it.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=152216

Quite a lot of people said it was rubbish and would definitely not happen that year- it was true then and it's true now. The same will happen again next year, just one of those weird things in football,

 

[konstas_87]

Next will be Brisbane.

bradshaw + brown = unstoppable!

we can only hope

 

[Quinz]

You're a star Mead, we all know that. Let Dan have some glory.

 

[Scotland]

Mead > Dan26.