Sydney 4th on ladder - can they stay there?

[db swannie]

So far so good...but it's only round 3A definite chance to go 7-4 by the halfway mark (8-3 would be exceptional, but less likely). If we are 7-4 at the turn, then yes I think we can make fourth spot. IF...

 

[DeadlyAkkuret]

We have to win our next two games, if you're a top 4 side you can't drop games against North or West Coast. The Roos can be tough at home so I'd settle for any sort of win there, but we should beat the Eagles at home by 6-8 goals if we're serious.

The next 5 games after that will be telling.

Brisbane (Home) 60/40
Geelong (Away) 40/60
Bulldogs (Manuka) 50/50
Fremantle (Home) 70/30
Hawthorn (Away) 50/50

If we don't win at least 3 of those, we're not genuine.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

I agree with the last poster. Sydney dont build an all conquering team by dropping down the ladder. They will never have the quality of a Brisbane, Geelong, or on-paper Saints of today.

But what they do do, is stay there and abouts, so that in years where one era ends, before the next starts up, they can snaffle a flag with a good injury run.

Think about 2005 and 2006. There was no standout team all year. With Geelong on the wane, and Reiwoldt-less saints, it could be that sort of year again.

Agree with your post, except i am not sure Geelong are on the wane. I expected them to be on the wane this season, but they don't appear to be. A close loss to an in form team with Ottens, Scarlett, Milburn, Mooney, and Rooke out, and with a seriously soft pre-season under the belt (to be ready for the latter part of the year) does not point to being on the decline. Actually, its a bloody good sign!

Anyway, i have Sydney finishing 5th-7th. If they play very well and have a good run with injuries they can make 4th. And i hope they do.

 

[CursoryMercenary]

Paul Roos is an amazing coach, he will be a big loss to the league in that department from next year onward.

 

[RizzoTheRat]

Right now we are still turning to ball over too much. If this improves as the season goes on we can stay there.

What will hurt is that we have the Cats, Hawks and Doggies twice this year, as well as the form side in the comp at the moment - Freo.

 

[cammo78]

this is my ladder for this year
1:st kilda win grannie by 13
2:geelong lose prelim to dogs by 1
3:bulldogs runners up by 13
4:hawthorn lose prelim to saints by 23
5:sydney lose semi to hawks by 18
6:brisbane lose semi to dogs by 10
7:magpies lose elimination to lions by 47
8:fremantle los elimination to swans by 26
9ort adelaide
10:adelaide
11:melbourne
12:essendon
13:west coast
14:carlton
15:north
16:tigers

those prelims can't occur if the ladder is as you say...

 

[raskolnikov]

They've beaten Richmond and an abysmal Adelaide. Lost to St.Kilda narrowly but it was their home ground and Saints-Swans matches are traditionally close. Way too early to call yet.

 

[Doctor Jolly]

Agree with your post, except i am not sure Geelong are on the wane. I expected them to be on the wane this season, but they don't appear to be. A close loss to an in form team with Ottens, Scarlett, Milburn, Mooney, and Rooke out, and with a seriously soft pre-season under the belt (to be ready for the latter part of the year) does not point to being on the decline. Actually, its a bloody good sign!
.

Geelong will still probably be top 4, just not the dominant team they have been.

Their wane will not be apparent until later in the season. They've had shortened pre-seasons for the last 3 years. They've had to play 4 extra high intensity games every year (finals). Their players are getting a bit older, and take longer to recover from injuries.
All this will catch up to them come August/September IMO.

 

[HolyWars]

Paul Roos is an amazing coach, he will be a big loss to the league in that department from next year onward.

If they give September a shake, I wouldnt be suprised if he stayed for another year or two.

 

[Bloods Rule!]

If they give September a shake, I wouldnt be suprised if he stayed for another year or two.

You can guarantee that just won't happen. He has a deal in place with John Longmire and if he reneged Horse may walk and there would be a lot of heartache around the club. However, the club is already talking about Roos staying on in some capacity and that may be more active if the team looks like it's rising towards a premiership again.

Of course, we're all hoping the team will develop its potential very quickly - as it did 2003-2005 - and we're in the mix this year. But we're only at the beginning of a long season. Right now the Swans are not playing as well as the top teams - but there are glimpses of how they could. That's exciting. I reckon they are going to push hard in Roos' and probably Kirk's last year - just as they did in Jason Ball's Swan Song.

 

[DVD Player]

top 8. yes. Top 4, doubt it, still possible though....

 

[MARK In TIME]

The next 5 games after that will be telling.

Brisbane (Home)
Geelong (Away)
Bulldogs (Manuka)
Fremantle (Home)
Hawthorn (Away)

If we don't win at least 3 of those, we're not genuine.

This is a very important period for the club - almost a make it or break it situation. We can really test ourselves against some inform teams. It we are compettive and get a few wins the confidence gained will do wonders and we will be right up there on the table. If we sustain a few bad losses in a row then its not looking good. Honestly I hope it turns out like at the end of last year where our close game against St Kilda played us into form. Hopefully we can snatch some wins instead of losing by a few points against the some good sides.

 

[nineteen eighty]

There is no reason why they can't but there are also reason why they won't. Here is overview of each case:

Reasons why they can:
1 - Have a relatively easy draw and should look to be 4 - 1 going into the Cats at home.
2 - Have a good developing list with genuine stars as well who can win games of their on boot or leadership e.g. Goodes, ROK, Bradshaw, Kirk and McVeigh.
3 - Are relatively good travlers and are very hard to beat at the SCG and ANZ.
4 - They dictate the tempo like no other side and can shut down sides completely if they are on top.
5 - They have good depth with guys like MOD, Bevan, Richards, Vezpremi and Rohan playing in the 2nds.
6 - They have a more solid ruck combo than other previous years with Seaby/Mumford>Jolly
7 - I go for them so they automatically can beat anyside and it's the umpires fault if they lose or the other team is cheating e.g. Rnd 1 Riewoldt's Oscar winning performance.

Reasons why they can't:
1 - There are much better sides out there with more quality in their ranks e.g. Cats, Dogs, Pies, Saints, Lions
2 - The midfield is not elite and struggles against some of the better midfields e.g. Cats, Dogs, Saints
3 - We tend to have form slumps throughout theseason and sometimes lose 3 or 4 winable games in a row, not top 4 behaviour
4 - We are little bit on the older side with some important 29+ players but we also have some youth to balance it out.
5 - Our goal kicking has been known to let us down at stages which could be a factor
6 - If injuries hit we may be exposed in certain positions e.g Ruck or KPB
7 - There alot of sides we wil have to compete with for a top 4 spot; Cats, Saints, Dogs, Pies, Lions, Freo and even Hawks if they can pull themselves together
8 - We also tend not to demolis teams so our percentage may not be as good as say a team like the Lions who are capable of beating teams by 100+ and the last few spots could be decided on percentage.

My Diagnosis:
We will look good for top 4 for a while but I think a finish around 5 - 8 is a much more realistic target for this year. Look for the bloods to be a Top 4 and Flag contender from 2012 - 2016 and beyond

Well thought out discussions are not welcome on Big Footy. Go away and take a good hard look at yourself before posting again

 

[Bollox]

If they give September a shake, I wouldnt be suprised if he stayed for another year or two.

Nope..its done and dusted. He's off regardless.
Not to say he wont coach again in the AFL one day i suppose...and if we make top 6 this yr he'll probably be able to right his own salary

No sensible reason why we cant make top 4...just a bit of a bridge too far to dream about. Ya never know tho. Just giving September a shakeup again from anywhere in the 8 would be brilliant.
Nothing worse than not playing finals at all.

 

[indieswan96]

Well thought out discussions are not welcome on Big Footy. Go away and take a good hard look at yourself before posting again

It really wasn't that well thought out I only thought about it for a minute or so. Then I just wrote and hoped it made sense something alot of people do here, I was just lucky it made sense.

 

[giantsully]

They've beaten Richmond and an abysmal Adelaide. Lost to St.Kilda narrowly but it was their home ground and Saints-Swans matches are traditionally close. Way too early to call yet.

Yep, all true. Doesn't mean we can't dream tho!

 

[potatomasher]

It's incredible to think how we were written off over the off-season, and now we've beaten the bottom two teams on the ladder, people start to jump on board. So far we've proven nothing. I reckon we can go well this year, but that's not based on our results so far this year, it's based on me being a biased supporter.

 

[Bloods Rule!]

They've beaten Richmond and an abysmal Adelaide. Lost to St.Kilda narrowly but it was their home ground and Saints-Swans matches are traditionally close. Way too early to call yet.

Still it's better than losing to Richmond and an abysmal Adelaide - and being thrashed by the Saints. And it gives the new team some game time before facing other really solid challenges.

And Adelaide have been such a long term bogy of the Swans. Beating then must give the team some confidence heading towards our other bogy - the Pies. maybe we should slag Mick M to get some traction?

 

[Doctor Jolly]

It's incredible to think how we were written off over the off-season, and now we've beaten the bottom two teams on the ladder, people start to jump on board. So far we've proven nothing. I reckon we can go well this year, but that's not based on our results so far this year, it's based on me being a biased supporter.

After 3 rounds, they are legitimate bottom teams as much as we are a legitimate top team.

(ie, they are bottom in part because we beat them)

 

[Palmer Stoat]

Maybe top eight. Can't see a top-four finish for them.

 

[potatomasher]

After 3 rounds, they are legitimate bottom teams as much as we are a legitimate top team.

(ie, they are bottom in part because we beat them)

I see your point, but Richmond have been flogged three out of three times now, Adelaide lost to Melbourne, it's hard to argue that Sydney have beaten any real quality.

 

[SydneyGoose]

I don't want to Bag Collingwood but they had pretty much the same game we had against the Saints, only theirs was a bit worse since they had even more behinds. And Riewoldt was out as well as Kozzie. The north game will show us I think since they have now found form and will be at home (Oh god please not another draw!).

 

[Bloods Rule!]

If the Swans beat the Roos this weekend I think it'll be about the first time they have won against them in Melbourne in over a decade. That would suggest a bit of the giant-killer ability that drove the team 2003-06.

Of course, if they lose to the Roos and/or the eagles they'll settle down to where everyone expects them - middle of the pack but off the pace.

 

[Doctor Jolly]

If the Swans beat the Roos this weekend I think it'll be about the first time they have won against them in Melbourne in over a decade. That would suggest a bit of the giant-killer ability that drove the team 2003-06.

Of course, if they lose to the Roos and/or the eagles they'll settle down to where everyone expects them - middle of the pack but off the pace.

The Kanga's are an abysmal team, who on paper should be wooden spoon certainties.
Westcoast put in an absolute shocker to gift them their 1st, and maybe only, win.

If we cant beat them, then we dont deserve to be top 8, let alone top 4.

 

[legend166]

If the Swans beat the Roos this weekend I think it'll be about the first time they have won against them in Melbourne in over a decade. That would suggest a bit of the giant-killer ability that drove the team 2003-06.

Of course, if they lose to the Roos and/or the eagles they'll settle down to where everyone expects them - middle of the pack but off the pace.

That's because we've only played them twice in Melbourne in a decade. All the other times have either been a Swans home game, or a Kangaroos home game at Manuka or the SCG. Those two games were a loss and a draw.

With all respect to the Roos as they usually match up on us pretty decently, beating them in Melbourne isn't what I'd call 'giant killing'.