It probably boils down to the fact that we've added significantly to our offence over the last 3 months with only a moderate reduction in restricting scores.
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AFLW 2024 - Round 2 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Tell me why we shouldn't be expecting to make Top 4 this year
- Thread starter Fat Nyfe
- Start date
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True. Also could've put the Sydney game to bed with the opportunities we had at the beginning of that last quarter.
Five rounds to go...there are only outside chances to jag a flag!
No one is odds on.
Agree but I do feel talk of winning in the 2025-28 period should be put to bed until this season is done.
There is an opportunity to seize the moment this year if we finish top 4. We should be absolutely all in to win it all in 2024 now.
Many things can go wrong in future years. Injuries, loss of form etc can derail even the best laid plans.
There would be 14 AFL teams that think they could win the flag inside 5 years if things went well for them. Obviously most of them won’t.
On the other hand if you can jag a flag early in a “window” suddenly you can quickly find a second or third one is not out of the question.
I’d hate to do a Brisbane since 2018 (minus the academy draft gifts) and end up in finals every years without winning the ultimate prize.
2024 is 100% on. The door is slightly ajar… time to bash it down like we didn’t do in 2013.
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I have expected top 4 this year from the start. This team just has too many good elements in all areas. However, I find the discussion grand finals a bit cringy; the team’s made 1 in 28 years, it’s a hard thing to do and there’s a long way to go.
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Oh yes. I understand the whole positivity thing but more than a few people round here need to wind their necks in.
Before, as my dear old dad would have said, their heads get ripped off by a passing cattle truck.
Shadow Man
Premiership Player
Think we need to be near perfect from here, there really isn't much margin for error if we want to finish deep inside the top four.
I think I would’ve said we’re too young for top four this year at the start tbh. On average age we probably statistically have no right to be there.
If we make it this year it’s just scary what this team could become.
If we make it this year it’s just scary what this team could become.
and yet some people expect so much more from them...
Playwr average ages never account for the variability in talent and quality between players though. It’s especially true of us where we have a core of concentrated talent aged 21-25 on the list.
Our 21-24 year old players are much better than league average and a lot of our older blokes are worse than league average for their age.
That’s why I’ve always argued it’s such a simplistic thing to say - oh we are too young, we can’t be expecting much.
We could take two good youngsters from the 22 out tomorrow and replace them with Tabs and Ethan Hughes and our average age probably rises to a more favourable level from a premiership winning point of view, but we would simply be making the team poorer even though it’s older.
Not every player reaches their peak at 26-30 too, which is a very common misconception on here. That may broadly be the case over the entire league (only to a certain degree) but there are many players that play their best footy in their early 20s. In fact, possibly even more so from WA teams. Fyfe, S Hill, Tabs, some good examples from our club. A whole host of eagles in recent times fell off a cliff when they turned 28/29, for varying reasons including Gaff, Darling, Sheed, Yeo etc.
I just reckon if you finish top 4 you are in premiership contention that season and year 1 of maybe a 5 or 6-year window to win a flag is upon us, already in 2024.
This sort of argument goes both ways. There is no way we are getting 500 games of quality out of the combination of Fyfe or Sonny atm and if you replace them with some 25yo 80 game B graders (their rough output level) from another club suddenly we're bottom 3 for age and experience.
Almost all (haven't checked all of them) premiership sides are noticeably older and more experienced than us. The only outliers I am aware of are the 2016 Dogs (both age and experience), 2008 Hawks (who had the experience but not the age) and the 2021 Dees who are right on the cusp of both (like 24y 10m and 99 games)
So it doesn't seem to matter where the spread is, the mean tells you what you need to know. Over 25 (most over 26), and over 100 games. I think the experience matters more. I also note that the Dogs finished 7th and we may never see a run like that again in our lives. Especially with blokes like Boyd playing out of his skin and then falling off a cliff.
You do see young top 4 sides regularly, but they are the minority. Most are old and experienced. This is easy to check, 8/8 of the most recent PF sides were over 25 and all but 1 (Blues at 98 last year) were over 100 games. I think the 2021 Dees are on the only recent counter.
This thread was only about expectations. A justified expectation strictly means it is more likely than unlikely, and there is no way you can argue it with the historical data. If you're expecting something that is unlikely, you're a fool. I don't think there was anyway you could argue that you were justified in expecting top 4 from us this year without some purple-tinted glasses.
If we actually finish top 4, then expectations are irrelevant and fingers crossed we're the next Dogs.
DRAGONS FFC - Moderator
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The stat that has produced 17 of the last 18 premiers and the three teams leading the way in 2024
It is based on the points differential from turnover.
www.sen.com.au
chaosball32
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Screw top 4, tell me why we shouldn’t be booking the bus
Looking at the current top 8 as it stands:
Sydney are still the clear #1 but have proven to be very beatable
Carlton are not as good as they were in the first half of the season
Port just don’t feel like a top 4 team, they have some great players but their play style is ugly and unconvincing
Haven’t understood the hype surrounding Brisbane this year, feels just like the last 6 years for them - good enough to consistently make finals but struggle in September
Then there’s us, the age factor is the big question mark but our best has proven to be good enough
GWS don’t feel as good as they have been in previous years
Geelong’s aging list is seeing them run out of legs as the season goes on
Essendon might be a great team in a few years time but they aren’t there yet
I’m not saying we are definitely going to win the flag, but it confuses me as to why we are the only fanbase who seem to write off our own team when we are very clearly in the race. Hate seeing the “we are still a year or 2 away” rhetoric. There’s no reason why this year can’t be the year especially given how beatable every team is. Believe.
Looking at the current top 8 as it stands:
Sydney are still the clear #1 but have proven to be very beatable
Carlton are not as good as they were in the first half of the season
Port just don’t feel like a top 4 team, they have some great players but their play style is ugly and unconvincing
Haven’t understood the hype surrounding Brisbane this year, feels just like the last 6 years for them - good enough to consistently make finals but struggle in September
Then there’s us, the age factor is the big question mark but our best has proven to be good enough
GWS don’t feel as good as they have been in previous years
Geelong’s aging list is seeing them run out of legs as the season goes on
Essendon might be a great team in a few years time but they aren’t there yet
I’m not saying we are definitely going to win the flag, but it confuses me as to why we are the only fanbase who seem to write off our own team when we are very clearly in the race. Hate seeing the “we are still a year or 2 away” rhetoric. There’s no reason why this year can’t be the year especially given how beatable every team is. Believe.
This is a mixed bag. We might be a chance in September but so are 7 more teams. Which reduces the odds again.
Finish top 2 and it's on like donkey Kong.
Helps this year that its more likely to be non vic teams in the gf. I feel we play the G well.
Helps this year that its more likely to be non vic teams in the gf. I feel we play the G well.
“People hate that I keep saying this, but I’ll back history until history changes,” Hoyne said on SEN’s Sportsday.The stat that has produced 17 of the last 18 premiers and the three teams leading the way in 2024
It is based on the points differential from turnover.
“The number one go-to that we constantly refer to is: how is your turnover game and where is that actually poised?
“So the points differential from turnover is the ‘real ladder’.
“Why is it the ‘real ladder’? Because 17 of the last 18 premiers have been top three. Not top six, not top eight, but top three in the turnover game.
It's a nice stat, but I'm not sure he can call it the real ladder when the actual ladder is an even better indicator. 23 of the last 24 premiers have been top 3 on the ladder. It's only the dogs who have been able to win a flag from outside the top 3 the century. You have to go back to Adelaide's premierships to find another, and that was under a different (worse) finals system.
Yep the difference between playing the Lions in Perth or going to the gabba could define our finals run.
I would feel more comfortable finishing 3rd and playing at the MCG then the Gabba.
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I think we can safely disregard that guy. Busy peddling lagging indicators as leading. His job is to sell their product (and himself) not to deliver unbiased analysis, which must necessarily deliver ambiguities and acknowledge its limits.
Really? I think it's pretty spot on.
It's also why we have improved massively this season and the reason why we dropped off in 2023.
The huge positive for us in that is that we are first in that number over the last 5 weeks.
Piggy Smalls
Piggy’s in the middle
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If we have a good win at the G next week against a desperate Essendon we will be well and truly in contender territory.
As Randomizor pointed out, the Squiggle model is said to be red-hot on us for next year as things currently stand. I doubt we will ever see that data as it won't be published until the post season draft/trade windows has closed. It's exciting though. The Squiggle has been pretty accurate more often than not in the past.
As Randomizor pointed out, the Squiggle model is said to be red-hot on us for next year as things currently stand. I doubt we will ever see that data as it won't be published until the post season draft/trade windows has closed. It's exciting though. The Squiggle has been pretty accurate more often than not in the past.
King Huskii
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Freo could win the premiership this season
