The Answers Are There

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Apr 4, 2024
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AFL Club
St Kilda
I’ve been listening to the predictable media pile on after yesterday’s debacle in the city of weird sexual crimes and serial murderers. I hope all of our supporters have returned safely.

I just watched Matty Lloyd (aka Derek “Blue Steel” Zoolander) and his inbred sidekick, “Purple”, and they looked like they were on the verge of a reporter’s equivalent of premature ejaculation, so keen were they to get into their favourite punching bags. Us.

Anyhoo, neither had an answer to our so called myriad problems. It’s inevitable that the only outcome for us is a downward spiral into oblivion, according to these self-appointed “experts”.

They lamented they didn’t know where to look for answers. I’d like to help. How about we start with injury list, Derek and Damo?

Missing were King, Howard, Sharman, Butler, Phillipou, Henry, Owens and Dow. If we took the equivalent types out of the crows, it would have been a much closer result.

Our list, they maintained, was going nowhere and we were at the very start of a rebuild, rather than well into it. This is despite our drafting over the past 4 years has been positively rated by most pundits.

Interestingly, none of our draftees from last year were on show yesterday, which was probably a good thing for the long term. Apart from Tauru, they were all available. I have been to several sessions this preseason and have been impressed by the standards and intensity.

For those disheartened by Sunday, what we saw in the Power practice match and on the weekend is a long way from what we can produce. Think of the Carlton praccy match where we took down a near full strength team after giving them a 3 goal start. The brown baggers have been tipped as a possible top 4 or thereabouts finisher.

I’ve stated elsewhere, like many others have, we are still a 6-12 team, but on the rise because of our core of young talent and bags of cash. Sooner or later someone will take the bait.

Nas, Pou, Mitch, Windy, Keeler, Wilson, Lance, Hastie, Hugo, Arie, Alix, TT, Barrat, Box, Said and Dodson. That’s 16 youngsters as impressive as any other clubs’. Only 6 were on display on the weekend.

Play them, RTB! Just as you did in 2023 when you had to. It worked then and can again. The effort was the other problem. Fortunately, that is the one thing we can improve on quickly. Great coaches, a strong President and Board, a great facility and the most loyal supporters in the competition. I know we’re getting tired of excuses, but the future is far from bleak.

So, Derek and Damo, there are some of the answers for you. Just because you’re too lazy and incompetent to do some research and analysis you shouldn’t disparage our club.

Compared to your own s**tstain clubs we are way ahead. Try looking for answers for them and their chronic failures. It might teach you how to research and apply objective analysis. I’m sure I’ll turn blue and purple before you do.
 

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Any ideas of competing whilst Wilkie, Sincs and Marshall are at the peak of their powers is just fantasy. I think we have probably seen the best of all 3, albeit expect them to maintain a high standard for the next 2-3 years. Unfortunately the kids are not going to come on in time. Steele is already cooked.

Put a line through free agency as well, it's just not going to happen. So the next 2-3 years are going to be hard to stomach, as we are still early on in a rebound if we are honest.

Doesn't mean we don't have some exciting young talent. If we can retain Pou, Wilson, and NAS then we are are chance of being a pretty good side in 3 years, even if our current stars are all on the way out. I am confident all 3 will become elite.

Hopefully some if not all of King, Henry, Tauru, Owens Trav become A graders.

Then we just need another handful to be handy AFL players. Barret, Dodson, Windhager, Boxshall, Garcia, potentially Said.

Recruit well the next 2 years and we have the makings of a good side.

Must get 1-2 midfield guns and a proper key back and we won't be far off.

Coaching and training has to get better. The constant injuries are a concern and there is no excuse for being consistently underweight across the board. Contact injuries are far more likely when we have a bunch of twigs running around. Need to muscle up and get harder around the footy. Other clubs are running as hard as us, whilst clearly being stronger. Needs to be looked at ASAP.
 
Missing were King, Howard, Sharman, Butler, Phillipou, Henry, Owens and Dow. If we took the equivalent types out of the crows, it would have been a much closer result.

Our list, they maintained, was going nowhere and we were at the very start of a rebuild, rather than well into it.

Nas, Pou, Mitch, Windy, Keeler, Wilson, Lance, Hastie, Hugo, Arie, Alix, TT, Barrat, Box, Said and Dodson. That’s 16 youngsters as impressive as any other clubs’. Only 6 were on display on the weekend.

They are exactly right.

If this was Hawthorn they would have torn down the house in 2017. St Kilda and its' fans continue to chronically over rate our list, are perennially happy to "wait until next year", celebrate most wins like they are premierships and hold the faith that minor tweaks are all that is needed. Our favorite part of the season is draft week followed by pre-season.

The "missings" other than King would be bottom 10 in most other clubs.

Our youngsters are NOT as impressive as any clubs. On that list, only Nas and Wilson have shown anything beyond potential. Pou will make it. Trav highly likely. The rest are just question marks everywhere.
 
They are exactly right.

If this was Hawthorn they would have torn down the house in 2017. St Kilda and its' fans continue to chronically over rate our list, are perennially happy to "wait until next year", celebrate most wins like they are premierships and hold the faith that minor tweaks are all that is needed. Our favorite part of the season is draft week followed by pre-season.

The "missings" other than King would be bottom 10 in most other clubs.

Our youngsters are NOT as impressive as any clubs. On that list, only Nas and Wilson have shown anything beyond potential. Pou will make it. Trav highly likely. The rest are just question marks everywhere.
That’s a brutal assessment based on a single game. I beg to differ on the quality of our kids from the last 4 drafts. Let’s revisit this at the end of the season after a more realistic sample size. Watch out for Tauru. I got to watch him a fair bit last year. I’m willing to bet a couple of shillings that he’ll make it and be a gun.

BTW, the opinion on the quality of our 2024 draft haul was provided by Kevin Sheehan, who rated it second only behind Richmond’s. What would he know?
 
That’s a brutal assessment based on a single game. I beg to differ on the quality of our kids from the last 4 drafts. Let’s revisit this at the end of the season after a more realistic sample size. Watch out for Tauru. I got to watch him a fair bit last year. I’m willing to bet a couple of shillings that he’ll make it and be a gun.

BTW, the opinion on the quality of our 2024 draft haul was provided by Kevin Sheehan, who rated it second only behind Richmond’s. What would he know?
Kevin Sheehan, never saw a draftee he didn't rate. Every single kid in every draft is a gun and they should never have been picked so low etc etc.
 
Kevin Sheehan, never saw a draftee he didn't rate. Every single kid in every draft is a gun and they should never have been picked so low etc etc.


Actually looks like we did do very well. That said 2022 looked incredible too. Phillipou, Van Es, Hotton, Keeler with Stocker and and Hammer off the supplementary list, McLennan from the academy. Only time proves how good.
 
Saintbill can I just say I'm enjoying your more measured posts.

Yeah I'm sick of us getting beaten up by the Crows even when they were shite. Why did Jack Steele lose weight when that was one of his key advantages as a big body mid? Why do we always look like we don't have a weights room when you look at the centre bounce?

There is so much better about us already and we are paying a lot for the sins of 5-6 years ago but I'm one that has seen us brushed aside for way too many years. To be honest if we did nothing but weights and running and one light skills session a week and next year we came out looking like an AFL top 6 sized player list I'd nearly be happy with the losses. I'm an optimist for our players but I feel we lose our composure we because we get bullied.
 

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I’m going to go out on a limb. There’s been a myth for almost 15 years since 2009 that st Kilda doesn’t draft well or develop well. I’d say it was accurate not anymore tbh. However the AFL media is too stupid to do any real analysis. Therefore they peddle the same shit.

Tbh I think it’s been more luck than anything else.

As someone who been following the draft closely for those years I feel somewhat qualified to talk on it.

It is true we have made some mistakes.

Particularly
Billings
- I blame injuries and development tbh.

Mccartin( this one I’m putting down to luck) no one knew he’d have the concussions he ended up having. So whilst hindesite says we should have taken Trac, who knew.

Coff/Clark both of these two have been rules by injuries.
We forget Coff finnished 5th in the bnf in his second year when we made finals before injuries cooked him.

Now fine you can argue we still took the wrong players. Fine fair enough. However we managed to still draft
  • Sincs
  • Ro
  • Wilkie

We also brought in
Steele
Membrey
Bruce
Roberton before his heart issues

Now this period was disappointing but at the time no one was saying wow at Kilda brought in two all Australians as rookies.

Moving along to more recent times

Drafting of
King A + potential
Wilson A+ potential
Naz A+ potential
Windy
Owens
Byrnes
Sharman
Garcia
Pou A + potential
Trav
Taru
Boxman
Keeler

In terms of ranking potential levels I think there’s 4 who have all Australian ability and could all things being equal be top 10 players in the comp.

Call me biased but I don’t think it’s that unreasonable. I also think each of these players has shown at various stages match winning ability.

King - won a few games off his own boot for us.

Richmond
WC twice
Adelaide
2/3 finals he’s played in he’s been great. WB and Giants .

He had a downish year but I blame his injuries, and bad coaching.

Ultimately I still have faith, but he needs some continuity.

Naz - one of our most impressive players since day dot except for the bloke below. Seriously , he had two shots at goal and if he starts to kick them.

More regularly and moves up the ground who knows. I’d argue he’s a top 2 half back and now he’s genuinely taking the piss with his evasiveness. Like the fend off against soligo was just pure arrogance. (Amazing he never got the rising star nom)

Just SIGN HIM.

Wilson , the only player with a better first year than Naz. As I’ve said many times, tracking better than Max Holmes at the same stage. A goal kicking winger mid. I really hope we play him on the ball a bit more because his pace and explosiveness is out of this world. Played games last year where he could have kicked bags of 5.
I think he is seriously enviable to other teams. He is just an absolute weapon.

Pou - was about to explode. His last 4 games and his VFL games showed what he can be.

A tackling machine, goal kicking who can genuinely take over the game. His tackling just went up another level. Like Wilson a goal kicking mid. As I said it’s his ability to take over the game.

In addition, we started to see his under 18 strengths shine through.

His goal kicking, size and his marking. Pou’s decision making also went up another level. When he gets to 50 games look out. I have no doubt once he hits 30 disposals once we’ll see it regularly.

Lastly Trav, Taru and Boxman

Trav - despite the talk during the draft I was massive on him, as a mid too. He’s just got too many tools imo. I think he will be a mid eventually and from there who knows.

Taru- genuinely dk what he could do. I think if he’s a forward he could be anything. Like Charlie curnow level. He has the superstar like aura imo.

Boxman- hard to say as I do think his kicking may always hold him back , but Dunkley became a superstar without it.

Anyways it’s not all bad and I do have faith in at least a few of above becoming A+
 
That’s a brutal assessment based on a single game. I beg to differ on the quality of our kids from the last 4 drafts. Let’s revisit this at the end of the season after a more realistic sample size. Watch out for Tauru. I got to watch him a fair bit last year. I’m willing to bet a couple of shillings that he’ll make it and be a gun.

BTW, the opinion on the quality of our 2024 draft haul was provided by Kevin Sheehan, who rated it second only behind Richmond’s. What would he know?
Let’s say Tauru does end up being a gun, how much does another gun half back really help us? We’ve got two at the moment and we’re still lightyears away from a flag. If he’s a Tom Stewart that’s a different story but they’re not easy to find.

Like someone already mentioned Sheehan has never seen a draftee who won’t be a 200 game AA, IMO it was a very strange draft overall from us last year but I get the feeling we’re about to get some very early picks in the next couple of years and we’ll have no choice but to get exactly what we need. Nothing would surprise me though.
 
I'm finding the doom and gloom attitudes a bit odd, though l guess it's not abnormal under the circumstances.
6 months ago we finished off the season in fine style with 8 from the last 12 or whatever it was. The defining factors were getting best 22 players back from injury, and the same guys playing enough games to find form and fitness. We were also missing the likes of Crouch, King and Henry for large parts or the entirety of that period.

Taking the team at that time, we're currently missing Chito, Dow, Doogs, Bottle, Membrey, Coops, Butler, Stocker and Pou, whilst still missing King and Henry.
We've gained only MacLobster and Boyd.

Now l dunno what pie in the sky ideas people might have about our prospects, but you need only look at last season to see what the effect injuries has on our ability to win.
That doesn't excuse what happened against the Crom, but when you're plumbing the lower depths of your list to field a team, the drop off becomes rapid.
2 months ago the fear of injuries was the no1 reason given amongst supporters for what might inflict a bad season. Then we got smashed, and then we sucked, and then those same people are throwing the toys out of the cot after round 1 against a fired up Crom, in Adelaide, with their fully fit best 23 available.

When the injuries hit the club started telegraphing reduced expectations for 2025. It's been picked up by the media scum as an opportunity to criticise but it shows the club are very aware of their situation.
People just need to get a grip. We have a rough month coming and incessant moaning isn't gonna help anything.
 
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That’s a brutal assessment based on a single game. I beg to differ on the quality of our kids from the last 4 drafts. Let’s revisit this at the end of the season after a more realistic sample size. Watch out for Tauru. I got to watch him a fair bit last year. I’m willing to bet a couple of shillings that he’ll make it and be a gun.

BTW, the opinion on the quality of our 2024 draft haul was provided by Kevin Sheehan, who rated it second only behind Richmond’s. What would he know?

I couldnt agree more, over the past few years our drafting has been excellent. The major floor in our drafting for decades is the lack of genuine proven midfielders which are generally taken high in drafts. There are hopes for Windhager, Phillipou, Wilson, Garcia and Boxshall but they all need development like most kids. The problem is in the interim our older and middle tier players have to 1 be available (not injured) and 2 keep performing at a high level in the hope the kids start to perform before the older group fall off the cliff.

It is going to be a really tough start to the year, but lets see how we go as the season progresses!
 
I'm finding the doom and gloom attitudes a bit odd, though l guess it's not abnormal under the circumstances.
6 months ago we finished off the season in fine style with 8 from the last 12 or whatever it was. The defining factors were getting best 22 players back from injury, and the same guys playing enough games to find form and fitness. We were also missing the likes of Crouch, King and Henry for large parts or the entirety of that period.

Taking the team at that time, we're currently missing Chito, Dow, Doogs, Bottle, Membrey, Coops, Butler, Stocker and Pou, whilst still missing King and Henry.
We've gained MacLobster and Boyd.

Now l dunno what pie in the sky ideas people might have about our prospects, but you need only look at last season to see what the effect injuries has on our ability to win.
That doesn't excuse what happened against the Crom, but when you're plumbing the lower depths of your list to field a team, the drop off becomes rapid.
2 months ago the fear of injuries was the no1 reason given amongst supporters for what might inflict a bad season. Then we got smashed, and then we sucked, and then those same people are throwing the toys out of the cot after round 1 against a fired up Crom, in Adelaide, with their fully fit best 23 available.

When the injuries hit the club started telegraphing reduced expectations for 2025. It's been picked up by the media scum as an opportunity to criticise but it shows the club are very aware of their situation.
People just need to get a grip. We have a rough month coming and incessant moaning isn't gonna help anything.

The biggest disappointment for me is the amount injuries that keep occurring in our preseasons! I can understand injuries occurring during games as the seasons fatigue sets in, but we have consistently lost too many players every year before a ball is even bounced.
 
The biggest disappointment for me is the amount injuries that keep occurring in our preseasons! I can understand injuries occurring during games as the seasons fatigue sets in, but we have consistently lost too many players every year before a ball is even bounced.
I agree entirely but we need to have a deeper look.

Mitchito OwensShoulderTest
Liam HenryKneeTest
Cooper SharmanThumb1-2 weeks
Max KingKnee2-3 weeks
Dan ButlerAchilles2-3 weeks
Alix TauruBack3 weeks
Mattaes PhillipouLeg6-7 weeks
Dougal HowardShoulder6-7 weeks
Paddy DowKneeTBC

Chito, Coops, Butler, injured in a practice match. So do we stop practice matches?

Howard and King injured during normal run of the mill training. So do we stop training?

Dow, Tauru, Henry basically LTI from 2024

Pou stress fracture in the femur of all things.

So of the 9 it's really only Pou that "may" have been preventable.

I'd say the only thing I've heard that makes much sense is that our players aren't carrying enough muscle mass. RTB is philosophically looking for a running game which impacts the way they want the players conditioned.
 
Kevin Sheehan, never saw a draftee he didn't rate. Every single kid in every draft is a gun and they should never have been picked so low etc etc.
He commented in an overall manner. He didn’t single anyone out, but felt that overall, we did better than 16 other clubs, finishing only behind the tiggers, who had a slight advantage in that they had a million first round picks, including number one.

Still, what would Shifter know? He’s only been in the game for 50 years as a player, scout and recruiter. He’s been the AFL’s talent manager for more than 2 decades. Pfft!

Don’t forget the players he comments on have already been whittled down to the best 50 or so, so it’s little wonder he gushes occasionally. He’s assessing the cream of the crop as it is.
 
I agree entirely but we need to have a deeper look.

Mitchito OwensShoulderTest
Liam HenryKneeTest
Cooper SharmanThumb1-2 weeks
Max KingKnee2-3 weeks
Dan ButlerAchilles2-3 weeks
Alix TauruBack3 weeks
Mattaes PhillipouLeg6-7 weeks
Dougal HowardShoulder6-7 weeks
Paddy DowKneeTBC

Chito, Coops, Butler, injured in a practice match. So do we stop practice matches?

Howard and King injured during normal run of the mill training. So do we stop training?

Dow, Tauru, Henry basically LTI from 2024

Pou stress fracture in the femur of all things.

So of the 9 it's really only Pou that "may" have been preventable.

I'd say the only thing I've heard that makes much sense is that our players aren't carrying enough muscle mass. RTB is philosophically looking for a running game which impacts the way they want the players conditioned.
It seems that most clubs this year have longer than usual injury lists. Just our luck that on Sunday, we ran into the one club that didn’t. Cornhole and co. have offered reasonable explanations so I won’t rehash.

My disappointment is two-fold. Are the players being over trained in the relentless pursuit of becoming the strongest running side in the competition as per RTB’s stated goals?

The other is this has happened in all 3 preseasons Ross has been back at the helm. It must be as frustrating to him as it is for the rest of us. Nick Jones was flicked halfway through 2023 and replaced by Alex Sakadijian, Dave Misson’s “captain’s pick”.

Nothing’s changed. Last year we were hobbled by injuries early on and it’s the same again this year. If I was RTB I would be doing a Pauline Hanson to young Alex and ask him to, “Please explain?!”

Our list is still young and lacking depth at present. At its best it is very capable, but we desperately need our best players available to challenge for finals. RTB 2.0 and co. haven’t got a hope of producing the goods with so many players missing on a consistent basis.
 
I’m going to go out on a limb. There’s been a myth for almost 15 years since 2009 that st Kilda doesn’t draft well or develop well. I’d say it was accurate not anymore tbh. However the AFL media is too stupid to do any real analysis. Therefore they peddle the same shit.

Tbh I think it’s been more luck than anything else.

As someone who been following the draft closely for those years I feel somewhat qualified to talk on it.

It is true we have made some mistakes.

Particularly
Billings
- I blame injuries and development tbh.

Mccartin( this one I’m putting down to luck) no one knew he’d have the concussions he ended up having. So whilst hindesite says we should have taken Trac, who knew.

Coff/Clark both of these two have been rules by injuries.
We forget Coff finnished 5th in the bnf in his second year when we made finals before injuries cooked him.

Now fine you can argue we still took the wrong players. Fine fair enough. However we managed to still draft
  • Sincs
  • Ro
  • Wilkie

We also brought in
Steele
Membrey
Bruce
Roberton before his heart issues

Now this period was disappointing but at the time no one was saying wow at Kilda brought in two all Australians as rookies.

Moving along to more recent times

Drafting of
King A + potential
Wilson A+ potential
Naz A+ potential
Windy
Owens
Byrnes
Sharman
Garcia
Pou A + potential
Trav
Taru
Boxman
Keeler

In terms of ranking potential levels I think there’s 4 who have all Australian ability and could all things being equal be top 10 players in the comp.

Call me biased but I don’t think it’s that unreasonable. I also think each of these players has shown at various stages match winning ability.

King - won a few games off his own boot for us.

Richmond
WC twice
Adelaide
2/3 finals he’s played in he’s been great. WB and Giants .

He had a downish year but I blame his injuries, and bad coaching.

Ultimately I still have faith, but he needs some continuity.

Naz - one of our most impressive players since day dot except for the bloke below. Seriously , he had two shots at goal and if he starts to kick them.

More regularly and moves up the ground who knows. I’d argue he’s a top 2 half back and now he’s genuinely taking the piss with his evasiveness. Like the fend off against soligo was just pure arrogance. (Amazing he never got the rising star nom)

Just SIGN HIM.

Wilson , the only player with a better first year than Naz. As I’ve said many times, tracking better than Max Holmes at the same stage. A goal kicking winger mid. I really hope we play him on the ball a bit more because his pace and explosiveness is out of this world. Played games last year where he could have kicked bags of 5.
I think he is seriously enviable to other teams. He is just an absolute weapon.

Pou - was about to explode. His last 4 games and his VFL games showed what he can be.

A tackling machine, goal kicking who can genuinely take over the game. His tackling just went up another level. Like Wilson a goal kicking mid. As I said it’s his ability to take over the game.

In addition, we started to see his under 18 strengths shine through.

His goal kicking, size and his marking. Pou’s decision making also went up another level. When he gets to 50 games look out. I have no doubt once he hits 30 disposals once we’ll see it regularly.

Lastly Trav, Taru and Boxman

Trav - despite the talk during the draft I was massive on him, as a mid too. He’s just got too many tools imo. I think he will be a mid eventually and from there who knows.

Taru- genuinely dk what he could do. I think if he’s a forward he could be anything. Like Charlie curnow level. He has the superstar like aura imo.

Boxman- hard to say as I do think his kicking may always hold him back , but Dunkley became a superstar without it.

Anyways it’s not all bad and I do have faith in at least a few of above becoming A+


The problem with nearly all of those players that you listed is that they weren't in the national draft. They were recycled or rookie listed. The spectacular failure at the ND is so bizarre. It's literally a competitive balance mechanism that we completely failed at and then kept the basic structure of the recruiting department despite this.

The last few years looks streets ahead. Pretty much all of the Toce era was AFL standard or above. Dalrymple looks pretty good off his small sample size but only time will tell.

To me the new kids are what they are and we won't know for a while but they look promising. Nas, Phillipou and Wilson are hitting it out of the park. All look like they could be absolutely elite talent.
 
Let’s say Tauru does end up being a gun, how much does another gun half back really help us? We’ve got two at the moment and we’re still lightyears away from a flag. If he’s a Tom Stewart that’s a different story but they’re not easy to find.

Like someone already mentioned Sheehan has never seen a draftee who won’t be a 200 game AA, IMO it was a very strange draft overall from us last year but I get the feeling we’re about to get some very early picks in the next couple of years and we’ll have no choice but to get exactly what we need. Nothing would surprise me though.


I guess his role is probably more like Battle's as a third tall defender/ swingman.
 
I'm finding the doom and gloom attitudes a bit odd, though l guess it's not abnormal under the circumstances.
6 months ago we finished off the season in fine style with 8 from the last 12 or whatever it was.

I guess it can really depend on your perspective. For me, I am probably a bit older than many here. I remember the 71 grand final clearly, so let's say I have been following Saints for 55 years.

In that period, we have had two successful periods - 97/98 and 04/10 (and I am being a bit generous here, in truth 06/07 were very ordinary given the list and you could make a strong argument that 04/10 was our most disappointing period).

So in roughly 55 years we have effectively challenged twice. There is a lot of dross in there. Virtually the entire 80s. Virtually the entire 10s, a fair bit of the 70s.

Now I know none of this has much to do with today. But when people say "oh you base your doom and gloom on 1 match or 6 months and we were actually brilliant in 21.....

People of my vintage are running out of time. I was only saying to a mate the other day that on current trajectory there is an extremely high chance that we go out before we see a second St Kilda flag. Stupid decisions, poor list management, poor culture, trigger us far more than it would if we had another 40 or 50 years ahead of us. And the way this club self sabotages even with another 40 years ahead of us I would not be confident.
 

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