Preview The breakout man

[Red Black and Blue]

Discuss???

Good analysis. For mine Kav is in that group as he still fills a need, as a midfielder who finds space on the inside and moves through congestion. ATM we only have Watson and Heppell doing that, which is relatively good but we get exposed with injury or if one of them gets tagged out of it.

 

[rines]

* also the sign of our team maturing will be when they learn to 'go through' the guy not getting tagged.. that is to say that IF Heppell is being tagged.. then you send the ball through Goddard or Stanton.. if Stanton gets tagged then Heppell has 20 extra touches.. basically ensure that you always have other options and there is no way to defensively cover them all..

Potentially that is where a guy like Myers becomes important as a back up 'big midfielder' or Melksham continues to improve and demands a tag in his own right too..

 

[Yoda_]

Like those 3 Yoda.. probably the 'pick' of the crop..

Personally I think Edwards is the one 'most likely' to raise eyebrows if given the chance.. has pace, skills and good footy smarts.. If he gets in good shape and gets an opportunity, may solve our forward pocket dilemna nicely..

I also have big hopes that EKav is going to step up this year and nail down a bench spot at least...

Edwards I have hopes of him becoming that utility, that no 18 - 22 bench player with the hope that Myers can force his way onto the ground in place of a Hocking and someone like Edwards (or which ever midfielder does stand up - Hams, Aylett, Kav etc.) can replace Hocking on the bench.

The thing people have missed with Kavanagh is, he has always been a 3 - 5 year project.
year 1 was all about getting his body right after missing so much footy in the 18 prior to being drafted.
Year 2 was about teaching him the defensive aspects of top level football (watched him numerous times do a tagging role, none more so than a usually dominant James Magner at Casey where he laid 14 tackles)
Year 3 im hoping will be his year where he breaks out from the child and into the man, taking his dominant underage football to the next level. *crosses fingers*

How could you leave out Gleeson? I genuinely think outside of Daniher he is one of the top young talents on our list. Every time of seen him he has impressed me in a different way. Weather it be poise, kicking skills, athleticism, strong overhead marking or plain old footy smarts I see him as someone who could be a very complete player.*

*May have just watched him in the right VFL games seeing as I only got down to a few.

The fact Gleeson had a shoulder reconstruction in the second half of last year, and the fact that he still weighs almost as much as a box of tissues suggests he still isnt quite ready to push for AFL selection.

I watched him closely a couple of times and he was actually a touch disappointing. Dont get me wrong, when he gets the pill, he does something with it, guess he just needs that consistency that will come with age.

Good stuff Yoda.

Out of the three I am picking Dalgleish, for reasons already mentioned. Hopefully he can develop into (and more polished) a Isaac Smith/Clinton Young type. Massive upside, exciting year ahead for him and us supporters.

Not sure if Browne can break into the seniors after playing an entire VFL season last year - not in the best 22. I wonder what role/position Bomber has for him in 2014.

Agree with Edwards, could be anything or we could just bust on him.

How exciting is this year going to be? I am pumped just writing about it.

I was so big on Dalgleish early doors when everyone else was so gobsmacked we didnt take Campbell (who is doing ok at the Dogs I guess), but what Dalgleish offers is something very, very unique that whoever possess' such weapons can bust games open. As mentioned, Hawthorn have Isaac Smith, we dont really have that speedy outside runner, maybe Zaka, but he seems more a smart runner than an out and out speedster. Dempsey I guess could be one as well.

Alex Browne is more my wild card. He possess' everything you want in a modern day footballer, good speed, good size, is skills are good and he has a tenacity that belies his years.

Good analysis. For mine Kav is in that group as he still fills a need, as a midfielder who finds space on the inside and moves through congestion. ATM we only have Watson and Heppell doing that, which is relatively good but we get exposed with injury or if one of them gets tagged out of it.

This is a good lead into where I wanted to finish off.

Using the Best 22 that eth-dog put up on the previous page

Fletcher - Hurley - Baguley
Dempsey - Hooker - Hibberd
Stanton - Watson - Goddard
Zaharakis - Carlisle - Winderlich
Chapman - Daniher - Bellchambers
Paddy - Hocking - Heppell
Myers- J Merrett/Kommer - Melksham - Howlett

We need people to be pushing out the guys in bold. Even then, no one should be safe, only Jobe is guaranteed a place each week and that should be it. We have a plethora of young mids that need/want game time in the seniors, but it is hard to see whose places they take.

Push there way onto the bench, and then maybe force there way onto the ground by years end.

 

[eth-dog]

You want to push out Melksham and Merrett Yoda_? I would want to be pushing out Licha (as much as I love him) and Fletch (same applies) ahead of those two. Ideally our best 22 by seasons end should be:

OUT: Fletch, Howlett, Winderlich, Kommer (if ahead of J Merrett)
IN: Ambrose (Carlisle back)/Pears (Carlisle forward), Colyer, Browne (look to trade if otherwise), J Merrett (if behind Kommer)

Carlisle/Pears - Hurley - Baguley
Dempsey - Hooker - Hibberd
Stanton - Watson - Goddard
Zaharakis - Ambrose/Carlisle - Melksham
Chapman - Daniher - Bellchambers
Paddy - Hocking - Heppell
Myers - Browne - Colyer - J Merrett

 

[Yoda_]

You want to push out Melksham and Merrett Yoda_? I would want to be pushing out Licha (as much as I love him) and Fletch (same applies) ahead of those two. Ideally our best 22 by seasons end should be:

OUT: Fletch, Howlett, Winderlich, Kommer (if ahead of J Merrett)
IN: Ambrose (Carlisle back)/Pears (Carlisle forward), Colyer, Browne (look to trade if otherwise), J Merrett (if behind Kommer)

Carlisle/Pears - Hurley - Baguley
Dempsey - Hooker - Hibberd
Stanton - Watson - Goddard
Zaharakis - Ambrose/Carlisle - Melksham
Chapman - Daniher - Bellchambers
Paddy - Hocking - Heppell
Myers - Browne - Colyer - J Merrett

I didnt want to be too controversial. Had Winderlich bolded but decided against naming him. Same as Fletcher

 

[eth-dog]

Oh and recruit reid from the pies to stick him at CHF and allow Carlisle and Hurley to be in defence

 

[Keystone agony]

If you take out his sub affects games he (Zaka) averaged over 24 possessions a game which is getting right up there in the elite category.

Considering how well he can use the footy its pretty good and thats still spent with some time across half forward.

The club, just by looking at what they have been doing the past year are trying to transition him from a half forward flanker who rotated into the midfield into a starting onballer who rest forward. Thats what i was wanting the last 1-2 years ago because of how good i thought he could become.

For me i now prefer Heppell in the onball brigade marginally ahead of him with Hocking and Watson. Zacka will certainly spend plenty of time through there but hes also a better forward than most of our midfielders thus he will be important in spending time forward. Where as Heppell hasnt shown anything as a forward and rotating back is much more difficult so due to his (Zacka) greater attributes in flexibility he may find himself with rotation caps spending a touch more time forward.

Im looking for that 9 goal season to become a 20 goal season next year. Remember he kicked 31 in just his 3rd year as a more genuine forward flanker.

A 24-25 possession avg midfielder who kicks 20+ goals will be huge next year. Its time for the 2008 national draft boys to really step up as consistent top end players this year.

 

[Keystone agony]

Oh and recruit reid from the pies to stick him at CHF and allow Carlisle and Hurley to be in defence

Do we realistically have the cap space eth-dog ?

Youd think Fletcher will be our only retiree. Maybe Winderlich aswell but i hope not i think hes still can offer something really good to us in the future unless his body collapses. Then Chapman would be the only other if his body really fails this year he may be happy to call it time. Cant see anyone on decent coin moving after next year esp with how contracts look.

 

[Yoda_]

Zaka doesn't really go into the 'break out' category. Has already played 87 games and is pretty settled in our starting 21.

 

[eth-dog]

Do we realistically have the cap space eth-dog ?

Youd think Fletcher will be our only retiree. Maybe Winderlich aswell but i hope not i think hes still can offer something really good to us in the future unless his body collapses. Then Chapman would be the only other if his body really fails this year he may be happy to call it time. Cant see anyone on decent coin moving after next year esp with how contracts look.

It's been said by Ben the Gooner that we've kept space in the cap. If we see Fletch retire that's a little off the cap, considering Watson and Stanton would go on the vets, trade Jetta that's another $250-300k off the cap considering he came off his best season when getting the contract. Say we have $300k room, add about 400k from Fletch and Jetta, then trade Pears if he wants out (which I think he would if we recruit reid), we have the cash to give him 600k and still retain 300-400k in the cap.

 

[Keystone agony]

Didnt Pears just sign 2 years recently if he wanted to go he wouldve fine one.

Remember the spots that open ie: fletch, jetta, browne, hardingham they have to be filled by others that still cost money.

Reid will need more than 600k i reckon.

Cant see us winning that race with coin.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Zaka doesn't really go into the 'break out' category. Has already played 87 games and is pretty settled in our starting 21.

He may not fit your narrow definition, but given the way his promising starts to the past two seasons were derailed by serious injuries he certainly has the capacity to step up in a big way. A fit and improving Zaharakis will be a key factor in any meaningful run into September.

 

[Yoda_]

He may not fit your narrow definition, but given the way his promising starts to the past two seasons were derailed by serious injuries he certainly has the capacity to step up in a big way. A fit and improving Zaharakis will be a key factor in any meaningful run into September.

Same could be said for a fit and firing Dempsey, and a fit and (hopefully) firing Hurley.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

I think Dempsey has more or less found his level.

 

[fishardansin]

Oh and recruit reid from the pies to stick him at CHF and allow Carlisle and Hurley to be in defence

So we can have three guys who are very good KPDs who can play a bit up forward. If we were to get Reid I'd rather player Hurley forward and trade out Hooker.

 

[fishardansin]

I think Dempsey has more or less found his level.

..... and it's a pretty freakin good one. I think he'll be pushing AA if he can stay fit and Essendon competitive for a whole season. As will Hibberd.

 

[eth-dog]

So we can have three guys who are very good KPDs who can play a bit up forward. If we were to get Reid I'd rather player Hurley forward and trade out Hooker.

Reid will kick 40 goals at CHF this year. I know you think Pears is better than Hooker, but you're wrong. Hooker/Carlisle/Hurley would be the best KPD trio in the AFL. Yes, even better than if Pears was there instead of Hooker.

 

[ant555]

We need people to be pushing out the guys in bold. Even then, no one should be safe, only Jobe is guaranteed a place each week and that should be it. We have a plethora of young mids that need/want game time in the seniors, but it is hard to see whose places they take.

Push there way onto the bench, and then maybe force there way onto the ground by years end.

No one should be safe but i never get the mindset that we need to be pushing certain blokes from the side. Maybe 6 years ago but all things being even if we had a normal season we win 14 games and more than likely a final.
We need our best side on the ground, young blokes do not need game time, like Merrett this year if they are good enough they will get into the side. They will get into the side as no one ever has an injury free season.
Personally i would hope to see them playing 2 or 3 seasons in the VFL like most of the Hawks and Geelong players do. If they are good enough by season 4 they will pass others and get into the side.

What i want this year ? Hurley to do well in defence , Carlisle to kick 40 to 50 goals.
Chapman not to be injured.
Melksham continue his improved form.
Stanton being injury free and returning to his 2012 and early 2013 form and not the run past for easy stats form he was in late in the season.
Zaka to be more consistent over 4 quarters.
Kommer to keep doing what he was but add a goal per game to his form.

If someone new breaks into the side and we are winning then great.

 

[Yoda_]

I think Dempsey has more or less found his level.

I think Dempsey can take another step in 2014. As comparison, when Goddard was one of the top 5 players in the comp in 2010, he averaged a whopping 115.6 (2009), 130.2 (2010) and 107.9 (2011) to underline his status as one of the premier half backs in the game in the past 2 decades.

If Dempsey can improve his output (supercoach average of 78.9 in 2013) another 15% (to somewhere near 88 - 92 supercoach points per game as a guide) he would be right at the forefront of All Australian selectors minds.

 

[BrunoV]

Stanton is the only one who might cop a tag ahead of Zaharakis. A tag will hardly inhibit players like Watson, Goddard and Heppell. Outside players like Stanton and Zaharakis are extremely damaging when left to run free but can suffer badly when tagged. Note that Stephen Hill is tagged more often than Fyfe, Mundy or Barlow. In the first half of the year Zaharakis was more damaging than Stanton so I expect him to cop tags more regularly. If he's kept quite we have no dash or zip in our midfield - I think his injuries late in the season have been one of the big reasons we've faltered in the past two seasons. Edwards looks like good cover for Zaharakis assuming he can find enough ball.

Agree completely. Still not sure Heppell is close to damaging enough to be tagged ( though it may happen this year). You probably want to sit on Goddard to ensure he is limited on outside. If Zaharakis gets 30+ with high uncontested possession / hball receives and running bounces my guess is that efc does not lose.

Watson and Heppell frequently get great numbers in losing sides.

 

[fishardansin]

Reid will kick 40 goals at CHF this year. I know you think Pears is better than Hooker, but you're wrong. Hooker/Carlisle/Hurley would be the best KPD trio in the AFL. Yes, even better than if Pears was there instead of Hooker.

In the set up Hooker is much better value than Pears, and has been for 3 years now. However, if Hurley was to go back then Hurley and Carlisle would be the big guys and Hooker would just be lumbering after someone he can't keep up with. Hooker and Pears have different qualities and it isn't fair on either of them to compare them directly.

 

[fishardansin]

Agree completely. Still not sure Heppell is close to damaging enough to be tagged ( though it may happen this year). You probably want to sit on Goddard to ensure he is limited on outside. If Zaharakis gets 30+ with high uncontested possession / hball receives and running bounces my guess is that efc does not lose.

Watson and Heppell frequently get great numbers in losing sides.

The team is in desperate need of two or three more with those qualities to move through the middle. Spread the load inside games and have depth across the list.

 

[The Dustbin]

..... and it's a pretty freakin good one. I think he'll be pushing AA if he can stay fit and Essendon competitive for a whole season. As will Hibberd.

Demspey's defensive skills and efforts last year were phenomenal.

 

[Keystone agony]

Dempsey wouldve probably averaged that if you take away his injury affected games Yoda_ Hes already at that level for me.

Heppells clearly damaging enough to get tagged. It happened last year, let alone this year. He got tagged in his last 3 games of the AFL season that he played in Plus had Lewis spend fair chunks on him the game before that and then got a very good tagger from GWS in Whiley who didnt know what a footy looked like. He then also got the Kornes tag from port only a few rounds before. Clubs clearly see him as a very damaging player hes probably our number one tagged player next year, certainly according to his last 7 games where effectively he had someone with him in 6 of those games. Due to Heppell being predominantly outside hes a little easier to tag than say a Watson, or have an effect on.

 

[Big Fresh]

Dempsey wouldve probably averaged that if you take away his injury affected games Yoda_ Hes already at that level for me.

Heppells clearly damaging enough to get tagged. It happened last year, let alone this year. He got tagged in his last 3 games of the AFL season that he played in Plus had Lewis spend fair chunks on him the game before that and then got a very good tagger from GWS in Whiley who didnt know what a footy looked like. He then also got the Kornes tag from port only a few rounds before. Clubs clearly see him as a very damaging player hes probably our number one tagged player next year, certainly according to his last 7 games where effectively he had someone with him in 6 of those games. Due to Heppell being predominantly outside hes a little easier to tag then say a Watson, or have an effect on.

I would say Heppell's more of an inside midfielder and he seemed pretty much unaffected by the tags he got. The players who should, if other teams are smart, be tagged most next season in order are:
1. Zaharakis
2. Stanton
3. Goddard
4. Watson
5. Heppell

Heppell got tagged because Zaharakis was hampered by injury, Stanton disappeared on his own, and Watson wasn't playing. You should tag players who either rely on run and carry (Zaha) or have particularly damaging disposal in space (Stanton/Goddard), and this season Heppell had the worst foot skills in our midfield and isn't particularly fast so a tag will hardly impact his game. I don't think he'll receive many tags next season and if he does, they'll be ineffective and would be a blessing for us.