The Greens

[Pie eyed]

Am I missing the narrative on the Greens being "smashed" in the 2024 Qld election?

Yes they lost a seat... so in terms of representation that's bad. But they have a positive swing statewide? So at worst you might say they just had 1 bad or disliked candidate?


Disappointing and particularly if they were targeting an improvement on 2024, but hardly a smashing.

The Greens and the media were hoping and publically talking up the prospect of winning several more seats pre-election.
The result, losing a seat while not a smashing does not really support a celebration on their part.
Blaming Labor for actively defending seats that they hold, and claiming they "Targeted" the Greens is the spin of simpletons.

 

[Gralin]

Neither Labor or the Greens will learn the lessons out of Queensland they should

1) People will vote for Labor if they have progressive policies and they won't bleed to the greens on the left
2) Federal Politics doesn't matter as much in state elections and MCM is not going to help the greens win local seats

 

[RedStarUncle]

The Greens and the media were hoping and publically talking up the prospect of winning several more seats pre-election.
The result, losing a seat while not a smashing does not really support a celebration on their part.
Blaming Labor for actively defending seats that they hold, and claiming they "Targeted" the Greens is the spin of simpletons.

Certainly not something for the Greens to celebrate... but I just feel like it's been talked up as a "wake-up call" and a "rejection of them" when really it was just them stagnating rather than continuing their general growth in the last decade or two.


On numbers without knowing how the election played out... it looks like a reasonable analysis that Labor might've fought too hard to prevent votes bleeding to the Greens, and in doing so may've lost ground in the purple-voter zone swinging between themselves and Libs. Might not be true but would certainly work with how the numbers played out. Greens of course would love to see Labor put all it's resourced into shoring up the purple border stopping voters leaking into the LNP while the Greens still more votes off Labor and put them into minority government requiring Greens support.

That's exactly the scenario we'll see next year at Federal level. So far, it looks like Labor is playing to the purple-voter which suits the Greens (and Teals) nicely...... except if Labor do a bad job of it then LNP could win anyway and the Greens could just end up with a bigger piece of the smaller half of the pie.

 

[Gralin]

Certainly not something for the Greens to celebrate... but I just feel like it's been talked up as a "wake-up call" and a "rejection of them" when really it was just them stagnating rather than continuing their general growth in the last decade or two.


On numbers without knowing how the election played out... it looks like a reasonable analysis that Labor might've fought too hard to prevent votes bleeding to the Greens, and in doing so may've lost ground in the purple-voter zone swinging between themselves and Libs. Might not be true but would certainly work with how the numbers played out. Greens of course would love to see Labor put all it's resourced into shoring up the purple border stopping voters leaking into the LNP while the Greens still more votes off Labor and put them into minority government requiring Greens support.

That's exactly the scenario we'll see next year at Federal level. So far, it looks like Labor is playing to the purple-voter which suits the Greens (and Teals) nicely...... except if Labor do a bad job of it then LNP could win anyway and the Greens could just end up with a bigger piece of the smaller half of the pie.

Queensland Labor turned what was shaping up as a bloodbath into a narrow loss by..........
Appealing to their base with the kind of policies they claim to be about but somehow never are

They actually campaigned on things to help people

Oh and they actually did stuff before the election instead of saying vote for us and we'll do it they did it and said vote for us to keep doing it

Sure they still did bullshit Queensland cop stuff and not so great things but this was a government that didn't lose wondering

And their traditional base responded

Move right and you lose your base to greens and don't grow off the libs votes but they won't take that lesson to the federal election next year

 

[RedStarUncle]

Queensland Labor turned what was shaping up as a bloodbath into a narrow loss by..........
Appealing to their base with the kind of policies they claim to be about but somehow never are

They actually campaigned on things to help people

Oh and they actually did stuff before the election instead of saying vote for us and we'll do it they did it and said vote for us to keep doing it

Sure they still did bullshit Queensland cop stuff and not so great things but this was a government that didn't lose wondering

And their traditional base responded

Move right and you lose your base to greens and don't grow off the libs votes but they won't take that lesson to the federal election next year

They avoided a bloodbath... but they still lost fairly convincingly.

As much as it's what you'd want to see the ALP do if you're politics are on the Green-Red border, it doesn't seem like a winning strategy.

 

[Gralin]

They avoided a bloodbath... but they still lost fairly convincingly.

As much as it's what you'd want to see the ALP do if you're politics are on the Green-Red border, it doesn't seem like a winning strategy.

If Labor don't want to lose more of their traditional base to the greens they need to stop moving right to try and capture coalition voters

They can't have it both ways

Losing this election doesn't mean it's a losing strategy let's not forget nobody expected them to even get close a few months ago

People in this country generally don't vote governments in, they vote governments out

If Labor actually governed for the people more when in they'd have a much easier time staying in

That is the lesson Federal Labor will refuse to learn though because they don't want to govern for the people

The greens are also unlikely to learn that a lot of people would rather vote for a progressive labor than for them

They're not seen as a real option by many

Labor are also unlikely to ever treat them as anything other than the enemy

 

[The Tilt]

‘I am angry’: Greens leader says co-deputy never welcome back after staffer affair revelation

Sam Hibbins has resigned after admitting to having a consensual relationship with a staffer. Greens leader Ellen Sandell said she would also move to have Hibbins’ party membership cancelled.

www.theage.com.au

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

Neither Labor or the Greens will learn the lessons out of Queensland they should

1) People will vote for Labor if they have progressive policies and they won't bleed to the greens on the left
2) Federal Politics doesn't matter as much in state elections and MCM is not going to help the greens win local seats

It is amazing how political parties don't learn even when it's spelled out to them.

 

[Gralin]

It is amazing how political parties don't learn even when it's spelled out to them.

well they pay "very smart people" to figure it out for them, they couldn't possibly listen to the actual electorate!

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

well they pay "very smart people" to figure it out for them, they couldn't possibly listen to the actual electorate!

The irony is those "very smart people" would be telling them exactly what the electorate wants. It's just they don't like the answer.

 

[Gralin]

The irony is those "very smart people" would be telling them exactly what the electorate wants. It's just they don't like the answer.

There's been plenty of evidence that's not what happens though

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

There's been plenty of evidence that's not what happens though

It's be because politicians are stuck in their bubble.
They don't want to believe what they're told and convince themselves it's wrong.

They eventually wake up and realise it's right. Normally right after they get blown away at an election

 

[Gralin]

It's be because politicians are stuck in their bubble.
They don't want to believe what they're told and convince themselves it's wrong.

No you're really missing the point

The advisors are also in the bubble because nobody outside the bubble is worth listening to

Labor especially operate this way from what I've seen

 

[RedStarUncle]

No you're really missing the point

The advisors are also in the bubble because nobody outside the bubble is worth listening to

Labor especially operate this way from what I've seen

I don't think it's that simple. Elections are won and lost because votes swing between ALP and LNP. Yes every now and then a minor party will blip where the votes go, but even then it's what happens with the purple voters that decides who governs.

I think both parties have, depending on your viewpoint, either "fallen-into-the-trap-of-believing-that" or "come-to-the-realisation-that" they can only win elections by playing politics to appeal to the purple voters, because that's where the votes will come from to win them an election.



What you're proposing is for a government to just govern for what they ideologically believe is for the best for the country, and hoping the votes will come their way on the basis that they're doing a good job of governing. Screw the politics.

It's a ballsy strategy... too ballsy for most politicians. And I don't think I've seen a side of politics in my lifetime with people competent and capable enough to pull it off. Both sides too busy focused on the rorts and benefits and post-politics career to actual focus on running the country well... but playing politics every 3 years to win over the swing voters is an easy backup plan.

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

No you're really missing the point

The advisors are also in the bubble because nobody outside the bubble is worth listening to

Labor especially operate this way from what I've seen

That they are. They would still see the data but just ignore it.

 

[Gralin]

I don't think it's that simple. Elections are won and lost because votes swing between ALP and LNP. Yes every now and then a minor party will blip where the votes go, but even then it's what happens with the purple voters that decides who governs.

I think both parties have, depending on your viewpoint, either "fallen-into-the-trap-of-believing-that" or "come-to-the-realisation-that" they can only win elections by playing politics to appeal to the purple voters, because that's where the votes will come from to win them an election.



What you're proposing is for a government to just govern for what they ideologically believe is for the best for the country, and hoping the votes will come their way on the basis that they're doing a good job of governing. Screw the politics.

It's a ballsy strategy... too ballsy for most politicians. And I don't think I've seen a side of politics in my lifetime with people competent and capable enough to pull it off. Both sides too busy focused on the rorts and benefits and post-politics career to actual focus on running the country well... but playing politics every 3 years to win over the swing voters is an easy backup plan.

It's not at all what I'm saying

 

[RedStarUncle]

It's not at all what I'm saying

Not sure... what are you saying then? That the average swing-vote punter thinks progressive policies are the way to go?

ALP strategists seem to not think that... and I tend to think they're right.

 

[Seeds]

Certainly not something for the Greens to celebrate... but I just feel like it's been talked up as a "wake-up call" and a "rejection of them" when really it was just them stagnating rather than continuing their general growth in the last decade or two.


On numbers without knowing how the election played out... it looks like a reasonable analysis that Labor might've fought too hard to prevent votes bleeding to the Greens, and in doing so may've lost ground in the purple-voter zone swinging between themselves and Libs. Might not be true but would certainly work with how the numbers played out. Greens of course would love to see Labor put all it's resourced into shoring up the purple border stopping voters leaking into the LNP while the Greens still more votes off Labor and put them into minority government requiring Greens support.

That's exactly the scenario we'll see next year at Federal level. So far, it looks like Labor is playing to the purple-voter which suits the Greens (and Teals) nicely...... except if Labor do a bad job of it then LNP could win anyway and the Greens could just end up with a bigger piece of the smaller half of the pie.

Federal labor have claimed they are going after greens held inner seats. Qld has shown them they can win there. That suggests they arent focusing on the purple seats.