Opinion The Race for Pick #1 - It's ours (almost... again....)

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So? Should we trade pick 1, maybe the crows will throw in Seedsman


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I am just sick of the talk about it


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If it was a Vic kid thought of in this way, there would be stoopid trades on how we could get him, it happens every year
 
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So were we - the difference is simply a matter of timing, in that we're 'collecting' the spoon half a year after the run of 2-24 that represents us at our worst. Melbourne were worse for longer, no question (three very poor years in a row, 14th-last-last, before their first - failed - 'rise'), but we're also not exactly out of the woods yet either... the point is less that we're like Melbourne, so much as that the fan mentality here is every bit as misguided as it was there.

To be 100% clear, I'm not unhappy about getting Pick #1 - that's the pick that's warranted for the team that finishes on the bottom. What bothers me is the ridiculous logic that underpins every argument in favour of wanting the result we've now made a certainty - from the absurd paranoia ("we'd better tank, I bet Clarko is scheming hard to get the #1 pick for the Hawks... Adelaide are desperate to prise him from us... GC would do anything to get their grubby hands on him"), to the nuffieish contrarianism present in all fan communities ("actually, losing is better for us long term, and losing really badly would actually be even better" - not far from "all my favourite band's best songs are their B-sides and unreleased live tracks" really), to the meek unwillingness from some to ever spout anything more than self-serving platitudinous positives ("actually, our future is so bright that supporters of all other clubs are super envious of how woeful we are right now and the draft 'rewards' we'll reap")... and, as I was responding to, this bizarre contention that people having poor memories means history shouldn't inform anything. All of it is so utterly garbage that it's worth pushing back against wherever possible.

Ultimately, only one team since 2000 has taken less than ten years to go from the spoon to a premiership (West Coast, 2010 then 2018 - who, just by the by, 'only' got Pick #4 for that ignominy, and he wasn't even playing on the day...). Obviously it'd be fantastic if we could buck that trend, bound up the ladder over the next couple of years and win multiple flags in the '20s. Now that we're definitely finishing last, I'd like that to be true as much as anyone else here - though, as I've said elsewhere, whilst there are plenty of positives that point to imminent improvement, we're not nearly as worthy of the hype as some seem to think we are. But it is absolutely mental that anyone with any semblance of an understanding of how these things actually work would wilfully seek out a last-place finish; the whole thing is predicated on hollow fantasy.
I think this is one of the better posts I have seen on here and agree with most of what you said. I am interested to hear your thoughts on the future of this list and expectations for next season. I have high expectations if everything goes smoothly with development and the new recruits in the next few years, but I ( along with most here) am also very bias when it comes to North Melbourne.
 

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we maybe sh*t but at least we have forwards. you can get high qulity mids in every draft. forwards, not so much.
12 goals against Sydney were kicked by players aged 23 or under, again led by key targets Nick Larkey (39 season goals) and Cam Zurhaar (31) with goalkicking midfielders Tarryn Thomas (23) and Jaidyn Stephenson (17) also chipping in. Eddie Ford (two goals, game-high 10 score involvements) added a spark in just his third run at senior level while debutant Charlie Comben (one goal) gave a glimpse of his high-flying future and what he could bring to a twin towers forward structure.
 
He hasn't really been anything more than wrong mate, hes fine :thumbsu:
Always welcome to be civil on here
I enjoy his little tantrums, they lighten the mood.

Im sure by the time the draft comes around he will have convinced himself that there is no way we will take Horne.

We may well not, but it won’t be for any of the reasons Brett has set out.

The taking of Phillips over McDonald as logic as to why we won’t take Horne is my personal favourite.
 
I think this is one of the better posts I have seen on here and agree with most of what you said. I am interested to hear your thoughts on the future of this list and expectations for next season. I have high expectations if everything goes smoothly with development and the new recruits in the next few years, but I ( along with most here) am also very bias when it comes to North Melbourne.

Thanks. I think there are plenty of good reasons to be optimistic about the crop of young players we have coming through, it's just a matter of tempering those expectations and recognising what exactly has been substantiated vs. what's merely "potential" that may never be realised. Will Phillips is a good example - it's not for nothing we took him with Pick #3, and obviously not playing at all last year is a serious mitigating factor in any assessment of where he's at, but it's no knock on him as a player to say that what he's actually done at senior level has been relatively low-key (decision-making nous when in possession would be the only obvious standout element of his game at this stage). And recognising, of course, that other clubs are also building their lists for the future, and the fact we don't pay as much attention to their youth as to ours doesn't mean they don't also have plenty of potential...

There are still plenty of question marks around what we'll be like going forward. Goldstein is going to be difficult to replace, we're only now starting to play decent football without Cunnington, and our recent competency relies at least as much on the resurgence of Aaron Hall as it does on the emergence of players who might be around for another decade yet. It's no great worry yet, but some of our younger players have plateaued this year (Scott, Taylor...). Also, we've yet to sufficiently address the issue of how easily opposition teams seem to find options when we concede possession: that's not to pot Noble, whom I've been largely satisfied with as senior coach, but our own recent history in the 2010s suggests that sometimes the problems you think will fade as we gain experience linger or even get worse (e.g., starting strong but fading awfully under Scott - we did it in our wins against Adelaide and Brisbane in 2010 and it looked like just a young side fatiguing, but rather than disappearing, it became the norm by 2013).

We all have our biases; what would football fans be without them? It's just a case of acknowledging what your bias might be and adjusting for it. Me, I habitually favour tenacious battler-type players, so I don't take convincing of the merits of a Turner or Mahony to our team; by contrast, I tend to get frustrated with clear lapses of judgement from obviously talented players, so it takes more effort on my part to recognise (say) LDU's obviously positive development (rather than picking out all the times he tries to take on too many tacklers and gets caught HTB). For others, it might be the reverse, or something else entirely. And, of course, we're all predisposed to want North to do well, so it's a matter of not letting fantasies impair judgement.

The operative phrase in your post is "if everything goes smoothly", because it basically never does. I don't like to set ceilings when it comes to expectations - as far as I'm concerned, we could win the flag next year - but for a team that's where we're at, seemingly half a season up from our low ebb, I think it would be a passable step up to finish 11th-12th in 2022.
 
Time to come home now, Brett. Stop embarrassing us.


I enjoy his little tantrums, they lighten the mood.

Im sure by the time the draft comes around he will have convinced himself that there is no way we will take Horne.

We may well not, but it won’t be for any of the reasons Brett has set out.

The taking of Phillips over McDonald as logic as to why we won’t take Horne is my personal favourite.

Comben > McDonald........ Phillips is quality, it is already evident the way he hits targets by foot, and his hands are incredibly quick. Play an immense role in delivering the ball inside 50 going forward. A lot has been said about Lions rebuild, but honestly think there is more upside in our list. That interview with Lmac was really telling I think when asked about Josh Kelly.....kind of brushed it off and talked about the quality of young mids we already have. There is some genuine X factor there, add in Horne as well. What I like is we are building a core midfield that can hit the scoreboard. That is really important in my view, and I think Larkey is way ahead of hipwood, good chance comben is too, not to mention Zurhaar, and we're yet to spend the warchest the way the Lions have to bring in Lachie Neal and Daniher........ a lot to like in my view.
 
Will Phillips is a good example - it's not for nothing we took him with Pick #3, and obviously not playing at all last year is a serious mitigating factor in any assessment of where he's at, but it's no knock on him as a player to say that what he's actually done at senior level has been relatively low-key (decision-making nous when in possession would be the only obvious standout element of his game at this stage).

Disagree on WAP not showing any other standout elements. He’s literally been highlighted on the couch for his kicking inside 50. I could probably point to 10 eye catching kicks inside 50 this year. Probably more than any first year player I can remember. Just this weekend he hit ford and Stephenson.

I think he’s stand and deliver tackling has also been a standout.

I think he’s been a bit underrated due to lowish disposal numbers. Something not helped by his very low TOG (which probably says a whole lot itself).
 
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