Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

Who has the better future prospects?

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Footy Smarts said:
Hey Meteoric Rise I really enjoyed this breakdown of Dempsey's game against Richmond.

Any chance you could do a similar breakdown of his 25 touches, 2 goals, 2 goal assists and 9 coaches votes against Essendon?
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Embarrassing callout for you Footy Smarts, thank god you are smart at footy cos you are a dumb as **** Big Footy poster. ;)

Going well the kid. Moves to 16 coaches votes in 16 games, way less than 20% of the votes of the highest polling 21yo this season. 9th most disposals per game same cohort. 9th highest player rating same cohort. 10th most goals same cohort. 11th most metres dishonestly gained same cohort. 29th highest defensive 1 v 1 contests same cohort. =19th highest tackles same cohort. 21st highest pressure acts same cohort. 41st highest spoils same cohort. 11th most score involvements same cohort. 31st highest 1%ers same cohort. 11th highest contested grabs same cohort.

What exactly is the campaigner supposed to be notably good at? :tearsofjoy: He is good for a Geelong 21yo that is about all I can see.

Pop gun one way runner with a weird Peter Korda head placed onto some un-Geelong like athletic frame.

Not even close to the best player named Dempsey ever to be associated with football in the Geelong district.

Had to give you guys some material to work with. :)
 
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Meteoric Rise said:
Embarrassing callout for you Footy Smarts, thank god you are smart at footy cos you are a dumb as **** Big Footy poster. ;)

Going well the kid. Moves to 16 coaches votes in 16 games, way less than 20% of the votes of the highest polling 21yo this season. 9th most disposals per game same cohort. 9th highest player rating same cohort. 10th most goals same cohort. 11th most metres dishonestly gained same cohort. 29th highest defensive 1 v 1 contests same cohort. =19th highest tackles same cohort. 21st highest pressure acts same cohort. 41st highest spoils same cohort. 11th most score involvements same cohort. 31st highest 1%ers same cohort. 11th highest contested grabs same cohort.

What exactly is the campaigner supposed to be notably good at? :tearsofjoy: He is good for a Geelong 21yo that is about all I can see.

Pop gun one way runner with a weird Peter Korda head placed onto some un-Geelong like athletic frame.

Not even close to the best player named Dempsey ever to be associated with football in the Geelong district.

Had to give you guys some material to work with. :)
Click to expand...

Love it. Good content!

What's he notably good at? Bradburying apparently. Might even Bradbury his way to the rising star at this rate.
 

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Meteoric Rise said:
When you are about the 9th best 21yo in the Competition, talk of being selected in the AA team is fanciful....unless you play your footy out of the Costa Zoo, so it is nailed on. :)

He doesn't even have the highest average player rating for a Geelong 21yo in 2024. :eek:
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Yeah give him a jacket I reckon! Or maybe just squad this year and the team next year.
 
Kobe Gryant said:
I'm just disappointed that we're only 100 votes ahead, really expected better from the BigFooty public.
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People have been seeing your "superstar" DeKoning spud his way through the season once again with a 1 v 1 defensive contest loss % of over 30%, meanwhile back at world sport headquarters, Ben Miller has more coaches votes and a defensive 1 v 1 loss % of 14% and is the 7th highest rated key defender on the planet. But of course Miller doesn't count as part of Richmond's rebuild according to Cat fans here because he is 1 year older than the way inferior DeKoning.

DeKoning, spud, learn to punch from behind campaigner. :)

So how are all these Geelong superstars we were told would be cornerstones of the seamless rebuild going now?

Holmes - The shining light, playing well. Been to the Clangerfield school of kicking though, and an eyebrow lowering 5.1 score involvements for a guy who runs around without an opponent 24/7, getting involved in a defensive 1 v 1 contest less than once every 3 matches.

Dempsey - 11th highest rated 21yo in the comp this year. Makes him worthy of desperate for attention Cats fans boasting about apparently.

DeKoning - Getting beaten in a third of his defensive v 1's this is so dire the Cats have to assign him a full time minder to ensure he doesn't get isolated in more than 1.8 defensive 1 v 1 contests per game. All we heard from Cats 2 years ago was this guy is going to be a pillar. :tearsofjoy:

O Henry - Should be oh dear oh dear Henry. "A Grader of the future" now a D grader in need of a suture. 101st rated forward in the AFL this season - below even T Hawkins. Say no more.

And don't mention his "jet" brother J Henry. Z Guthrie has gone straight past him in the Cats defensive pecking order I am sorry to say. Not in the top 90 rated defenders in the AFL in 2024. We thought he was supposed to be some sort of gun, LOL.

Jhye Clark Pfffffffff. Sorry, didn't mean to make everyone laugh. One of the lowest rated inside midfielders in the entire AFL right now. Thank god Cats have talent banked Mitch Knevitt, hey wait a minute. :tearsofjoy:

Tanner Bruhn - ok this is turning into a tragicomedy post. Broke down just when he was about to break out it seems. :)

Mullin, Neale, Conway - the list of young spuds is endless. Thank god Lawson "where's he been hiding" Humphries has finally appeared to reinstate false hope to the Cats fans, they were in grave danger of coming to terms with the shocking reality of their list. :cool:
 
Meteoric Rise said:
People have been seeing your "superstar" DeKoning spud his way through the season once again with a 1 v 1 defensive contest loss % of over 30%, meanwhile back at world sport headquarters, Ben Miller has more coaches votes and a defensive 1 v 1 loss % of 14% and is the 7th highest rated key defender on the planet. But of course Miller doesn't count as part of Richmond's rebuild according to Cat fans here because he is 1 year older than the way inferior DeKoning.

DeKoning, spud, learn to punch from behind campaigner. :)

So how are all these Geelong superstars we were told would be cornerstones of the seamless rebuild going now?

Holmes - The shining light, playing well. Been to the Clangerfield school of kicking though, and an eyebrow lowering 5.1 score involvements for a guy who runs around without an opponent 24/7, getting involved in a defensive 1 v 1 contest less than once every 3 matches.

Dempsey - 11th highest rated 21yo in the comp this year. Makes him worthy of desperate for attention Cats fans boasting about apparently.

DeKoning - Getting beaten in a third of his defensive v 1's this is so dire the Cats have to assign him a full time minder to ensure he doesn't get isolated in more than 1.8 defensive 1 v 1 contests per game. All we heard from Cats 2 years ago was this guy is going to be a pillar. :tearsofjoy:

O Henry - Should be oh dear oh dear Henry. "A Grader of the future" now a D grader in need of a suture. 101st rated forward in the AFL this season - below even T Hawkins. Say no more.

And don't mention his "jet" brother J Henry. Z Guthrie has gone straight past him in the Cats defensive pecking order I am sorry to say. Not in the top 90 rated defenders in the AFL in 2024. We thought he was supposed to be some sort of gun, LOL.

Jhye Clark Pfffffffff. Sorry, didn't mean to make everyone laugh. One of the lowest rated inside midfielders in the entire AFL right now. Thank god Cats have talent banked Mitch Knevitt, hey wait a minute. :tearsofjoy:

Tanner Bruhn - ok this is turning into a tragicomedy post. Broke down just when he was about to break out it seems. :)

Mullin, Neale, Conway - the list of young spuds is endless. Thank god Lawson "where's he been hiding" Humphries has finally appeared to reinstate false hope to the Cats fans, they were in grave danger of coming to terms with the shocking reality of their list. :cool:
Click to expand...
IMG_3077.jpeg
 
Meteoric Rise said:
People have been seeing your "superstar" DeKoning spud his way through the season once again with a 1 v 1 defensive contest loss % of over 30%, meanwhile back at world sport headquarters, Ben Miller has more coaches votes and a defensive 1 v 1 loss % of 14% and is the 7th highest rated key defender on the planet. But of course Miller doesn't count as part of Richmond's rebuild according to Cat fans here because he is 1 year older than the way inferior DeKoning.

DeKoning, spud, learn to punch from behind campaigner. :)

So how are all these Geelong superstars we were told would be cornerstones of the seamless rebuild going now?

Holmes - The shining light, playing well. Been to the Clangerfield school of kicking though, and an eyebrow lowering 5.1 score involvements for a guy who runs around without an opponent 24/7, getting involved in a defensive 1 v 1 contest less than once every 3 matches.

Dempsey - 11th highest rated 21yo in the comp this year. Makes him worthy of desperate for attention Cats fans boasting about apparently.

DeKoning - Getting beaten in a third of his defensive v 1's this is so dire the Cats have to assign him a full time minder to ensure he doesn't get isolated in more than 1.8 defensive 1 v 1 contests per game. All we heard from Cats 2 years ago was this guy is going to be a pillar. :tearsofjoy:

O Henry - Should be oh dear oh dear Henry. "A Grader of the future" now a D grader in need of a suture. 101st rated forward in the AFL this season - below even T Hawkins. Say no more.

And don't mention his "jet" brother J Henry. Z Guthrie has gone straight past him in the Cats defensive pecking order I am sorry to say. Not in the top 90 rated defenders in the AFL in 2024. We thought he was supposed to be some sort of gun, LOL.

Jhye Clark Pfffffffff. Sorry, didn't mean to make everyone laugh. One of the lowest rated inside midfielders in the entire AFL right now. Thank god Cats have talent banked Mitch Knevitt, hey wait a minute. :tearsofjoy:

Tanner Bruhn - ok this is turning into a tragicomedy post. Broke down just when he was about to break out it seems. :)

Mullin, Neale, Conway - the list of young spuds is endless. Thank god Lawson "where's he been hiding" Humphries has finally appeared to reinstate false hope to the Cats fans, they were in grave danger of coming to terms with the shocking reality of their list. :cool:
Click to expand...

Fair. I'd trade all of them for Thomson Dow, Noah Cumberland and Jacob Koschitzke. Deal?
 

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Footy Smarts said:
Fair. I'd trade all of them for Thomson Dow, Noah Cumberland and Jacob Koschitzke. Deal?
Click to expand...

Two of those are contract expired this year and probably won't be on our list going forward, so not exactly integral components of our rebuild, as foreshadowed by me all the way through this thread.

Koschitzke is doing the exact job you would expect from a $250-300k relief key positioner traded for pick 49. He rated a carer-high 16.8 v the Blues and was the 6th highest rated player in that match. He is taking 1.8 contested grabs per match this season, AFL #10, and is winning 33% of his offensive 1 v 1 contests AFL #21. Definitely showing some early signs of trending upwards from a small sample as he settles into the club, after a very poor start. Faintest of green shoots starting to put in an appearance there. Some chance to prove us all wrong, which would make me deliriously happy, but is turning you into a nervous wreck.

Earth to Footy Smarts, come in Footy Smarts are you there?.....we are no longer living in the aftermath of Geelong's 7th match of 2024, that world is gone forever Footy Smarts, over. :cool:
 
Meteoric Rise said:
Koschitzke is doing the exact job you would expect from a $250-300k relief key positioner traded for pick 49. He rated a carer-high 16.8 v the Blues and was the 6th highest rated player in that match. He is taking 1.8 contested grabs per match this season, AFL #10, and is winning 33% of his offensive 1 v 1 contests AFL #21. Definitely showing some early signs of trending upwards from a small sample as he settles into the club, after a very poor start. Faintest of green shoots starting to put in an appearance there. Some chance to prove us all wrong, which would make me deliriously happy, but is turning you into a nervous wreck.
Click to expand...
PlaYeR RatIngZ

Kositschke wouldn't have even been in the best 6 Richmond players on Sunday, a team that was beaten by 10 goals.
 
Fadge said:
PlaYeR RatIngZ

Kositschke wouldn't have even been in the best 6 Richmond players on Sunday, a team that was beaten by 10 goals.
Click to expand...

Lol, FaDgE rAtIngZ - A player rated 6th highest on the ground who kicks 2 and has 2 assists including from contests of his team's 10 goals, with the most contested marks in the game and the most score involvements for his team cannot under any circumstances be acknowledged as showing improvement.

We get it Fadge, it killed you to watch Koschitzke play well, it removes your anti-Richmond 1 wood when that happens. I wonder what Mrs Fadge thinks of FaDgE rAtIngZ, no doubt hugely impressed. :tearsofjoy:
 
Meteoric Rise said:
Embarrassing callout for you Footy Smarts, thank god you are smart at footy cos you are a dumb as **** Big Footy poster. ;)

Going well the kid. Moves to 16 coaches votes in 16 games, way less than 20% of the votes of the highest polling 21yo this season. 9th most disposals per game same cohort. 9th highest player rating same cohort. 10th most goals same cohort. 11th most metres dishonestly gained same cohort. 29th highest defensive 1 v 1 contests same cohort. =19th highest tackles same cohort. 21st highest pressure acts same cohort. 41st highest spoils same cohort. 11th most score involvements same cohort. 31st highest 1%ers same cohort. 11th highest contested grabs same cohort.

What exactly is the campaigner supposed to be notably good at? :tearsofjoy: He is good for a Geelong 21yo that is about all I can see.

Pop gun one way runner with a weird Peter Korda head placed onto some un-Geelong like athletic frame.

Not even close to the best player named Dempsey ever to be associated with football in the Geelong district.

Had to give you guys some material to work with. :)
Click to expand...
You seem to love the stats? Did statistics at uni?

Of course you would then know it all depends on how you cut the stats.

Calling his "cohort" 21 yo is interesting (not wrong) and of course gets you into the frame of some generational players. You could easily mount an argument that the best way of comparing a cohort is games played which will usually be similar age (and yes should exclude mature age recruits who have mostly had different footy developments) but focus more on where they are in the AFL journey.

If you take the under 25 games (excluding 5 or less to get a proper average - otherwise my man Lawson gets to top of pack!) Dempsey is all of a sudden third highest ranked among players with 25 or less games. The other two will be absolute stars of the competition (Reed - number 1 pick; Wardlaw 4th pick).

Now I am not saying Dempsey will end up in that league (he could but who knows) but just that the "ranking" depends on how you define the cohort. To me games played is equal if not better than picking a singular age

Having said that...if I stick to 21yo and exclude playings under 10 games (average not real yet? By the way 2 of those 3 exclusions are Cats players!!) then Dempsey is 8th in rankings of 21 yo (2024 stats).

He sits behind Daicos, Horne-Francis, Wanganeen-Milera, Callaghan, Sligo, Wilmot and D'Amborsio. 5 of those have played over 50 games and all of them are future stars of the game (some are current stars!).

anyway, I think you can argue around other things but your argument gets stronger when you recognise at least some of the other person's views when it is obvious Dempsey has come on massively this year and is rightfully being discussed as to what he might end up being

You then went from stats into classic loss of argument by emotionally just insulting a kid you have never met (I assume Peter Korda ref was not a compliment). And of course "one-way runner" ignores the stats you love (Telstra tracker he has been shown to do more defensive high speed and sprints than offensive) but assume that again was just an emotional pot.

Personally I think every one of those "top 11" 21 yo are going to be very exciting players to watch. I love them all and glad we have them to watch each weekend
 
Meteoric Rise said:
Lol, FaDgE rAtIngZ - A player rated 6th highest on the ground who kicks 2 and has 2 assists including from contests of his team's 10 goals, with the most contested marks in the game and the most score involvements for his team cannot under any circumstances be acknowledged as showing improvement.
Click to expand...
I never said Kotischke didn't show improvement in the game, but do you honestly think he was the 6th best player on the field? (And two other Richmond players the 4th and 5th best).
 
CHAWKTS said:
You seem to love the stats? Did statistics at uni?

Of course you would then know it all depends on how you cut the stats.

Calling his "cohort" 21 yo is interesting (not wrong) and of course gets you into the frame of some generational players. You could easily mount an argument that the best way of comparing a cohort is games played which will usually be similar age (and yes should exclude mature age recruits who have mostly had different footy developments) but focus more on where they are in the AFL journey.

If you take the under 25 games (excluding 5 or less to get a proper average - otherwise my man Lawson gets to top of pack!) Dempsey is all of a sudden third highest ranked among players with 25 or less games. The other two will be absolute stars of the competition (Reed - number 1 pick; Wardlaw 4th pick).

Now I am not saying Dempsey will end up in that league (he could but who knows) but just that the "ranking" depends on how you define the cohort. To me games played is equal if not better than picking a singular age

Having said that...if I stick to 21yo and exclude playings under 10 games (average not real yet? By the way 2 of those 3 exclusions are Cats players!!) then Dempsey is 8th in rankings of 21 yo (2024 stats).

He sits behind Daicos, Horne-Francis, Wanganeen-Milera, Callaghan, Sligo, Wilmot and D'Amborsio. 5 of those have played over 50 games and all of them are future stars of the game (some are current stars!).

anyway, I think you can argue around other things but your argument gets stronger when you recognise at least some of the other person's views when it is obvious Dempsey has come on massively this year and is rightfully being discussed as to what he might end up being

You then went from stats into classic loss of argument by emotionally just insulting a kid you have never met (I assume Peter Korda ref was not a compliment). And of course "one-way runner" ignores the stats you love (Telstra tracker he has been shown to do more defensive high speed and sprints than offensive) but assume that again was just an emotional pot.

Personally I think every one of those "top 11" 21 yo are going to be very exciting players to watch. I love them all and glad we have them to watch each weekend
Click to expand...

I welcome your post.

Yes, I was obviously having a few sly digs at Dempsey, well done for recognising that and calling me out for it, there should be more people like you in the world dealing with terrible scurges like me. :tearsofjoy:

We all know Dempsey is going well, and surprisingly well for a rookie pick who didn't always major in footy through certain periods of his youth. My main serious point with Dempsey is to put his good form into some sort of context. If he is roughly the 10th best player in his year group now and he has the average upside of all the others in his year group then he probably becomes a fringe top 5 player at an average AFL club. Certainly not to be sneezed at, but equally not to be confused with players who are tracking to be in the elite top 5-10% of AFL players. Dempsey looks to me to be tracking one step down from that, at the moment. Do you disagree with that?
 
Meteoric Rise said:
I welcome your post.

Yes, I was obviously having a few sly digs at Dempsey, well done for recognising that and calling me out for it, there should be more people like you in the world dealing with terrible scurges like me. :tearsofjoy:

We all know Dempsey is going well, and surprisingly well for a rookie pick who didn't always major in footy through certain periods of his youth. My main serious point with Dempsey is to put his good form into some sort of context. If he is roughly the 10th best player in his year group now and he has the average upside of all the others in his year group then he probably becomes a fringe top 5 player at an average AFL club. Certainly not to be sneezed at, but equally not to be confused with players who are tracking to be in the elite top 5-10% of AFL players. Dempsey looks to me to be tracking one step down from that, at the moment. Do you disagree with that?
Click to expand...
All good. we all move from facts to emotions when we think the other person isn't getting the "facts".

In terms of where Dempsey is at and your question...Nope. Too early to call Elite

BUT. his rise has been so rapid I am not putting a ceiling on it. Of course it could be that he is having a purple patch and/or his development will slow....but given he has come from zero development (he has a basketball background in case you missed the 1000 times it has been referenced!) and is on high curve if that continues for another year or two it is not impossible to think he gets into that frame. (my language is not really a strong endorsement as I just don't know)

For now, us Cats fans have to enjoy it. We have had limited top 10 draft picks in last 15 years (and only thanks to GC salary dump!) so we need rookies and late picks to outperform. We have had successes with rookies before but actually most if not all have been mature picks (Close, Atkins, Blitz, Stewart) - but a straight out of school footy rookie doing so well is something to get excited about.

I posted The Geelong Advertiser para (below) earlier today which shows he is in good company over the past month. But it is just a month at that "elite level" - lets see where we are at in 2 months time!

1. BOG DEMPSEY’S STOCKS RISING

A month ago we raised Ollie Dempsey as a genuine shot to win the Rising Star. After a month of stellar form, he is closing in on favourite George Wardlaw, who will miss another week with a concussion. Dempsey was awarded the Tom Willis Award as the best player on the ground in the wet against Essendon, finishing with 25 disposals, nine coaches votes, seven score involvements and two goals, one of those a miraculous soccer off the outside of his boot. Remarkably, Champion Data stats reveal he is one of just three players to average more than 22 disposals, 1.5 goals and two score assists since round 12. The other two are Collingwood superstar Nick Daicos and dynamic Hawthorn forward Dylan Moore, both of which are firmly in All-Australian calculations. Those numbers have come while splitting his time between a wing and the forward line, two positions that often go unheralded.
 
CHAWKTS said:
All good. we all move from facts to emotions when we think the other person isn't getting the "facts".

In terms of where Dempsey is at and your question...Nope. Too early to call Elite

BUT. his rise has been so rapid I am not putting a ceiling on it. Of course it could be that he is having a purple patch and/or his development will slow....but given he has come from zero development (he has a basketball background in case you missed the 1000 times it has been referenced!) and is on high curve if that continues for another year or two it is not impossible to think he gets into that frame. (my language is not really a strong endorsement as I just don't know)

For now, us Cats fans have to enjoy it. We have had limited top 10 draft picks in last 15 years (and only thanks to GC salary dump!) so we need rookies and late picks to outperform. We have had successes with rookies before but actually most if not all have been mature picks (Close, Atkins, Blitz, Stewart) - but a straight out of school footy rookie doing so well is something to get excited about.

I posted The Geelong Advertiser para (below) earlier today which shows he is in good company over the past month. But it is just a month at that "elite level" - lets see where we are at in 2 months time!

1. BOG DEMPSEY’S STOCKS RISING

A month ago we raised Ollie Dempsey as a genuine shot to win the Rising Star. After a month of stellar form, he is closing in on favourite George Wardlaw, who will miss another week with a concussion. Dempsey was awarded the Tom Willis Award as the best player on the ground in the wet against Essendon, finishing with 25 disposals, nine coaches votes, seven score involvements and two goals, one of those a miraculous soccer off the outside of his boot. Remarkably, Champion Data stats reveal he is one of just three players to average more than 22 disposals, 1.5 goals and two score assists since round 12. The other two are Collingwood superstar Nick Daicos and dynamic Hawthorn forward Dylan Moore, both of which are firmly in All-Australian calculations. Those numbers have come while splitting his time between a wing and the forward line, two positions that often go unheralded.
Click to expand...

The basketball bit is somewhat misguided here. He played footy as a junior and was playing footy in the year before he was drafted. He is in his 3rd year as a fully professional footballer, and is not some lanky kid that still needs to grow into his frame. I think we are entitled to think he wouldn't necessarily have much greater upside than others of his age cohort.


Whilst Dempsey has only come to prominence this season, he is not a player that was playing gaelic football or some other sport until last year and is brand new to footy. To this point in his life, football would definitely be the predominant sport.

Rising Star considerations are not really too much to get excited about, he is competing with mainly first and second year players 18-20yo and as we know a group of the best ones have been ruled out with injury and suspension. I don't think too many people would be confused into believing it makes him the best young prospect in the game if he won it.

The comparisons with Daicos and Moore over the last 4 matches are not full enough comparisons to be very meaningful. But they do show Dempsey is having a good run of impacting games in certain areas. Dempsey has to go through what all players who have good runs have to face yet, the opposition putting work into them. Then we will get a better grip on just how good he is.
 
Richmond fans told us repeatedly Tylar Young as a fully mature 25 year old in his 6th year back at the sport was still a kid with heaps of development so you couldn't judge his very ordinary performances.

Now a skinny 21 year old 3 years back at the sport has no greater upside than other 21 year olds despite exploding on the past 6 weeks.
 
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