Analysis Have the Crows botched their rebuild?

[TubbsFarquhar]

Lachie Murphy in part of their leadership group, dude is barely SANFL standard. Rabble.

On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app

I used to give North shit for having Kayne Turner in their leadership group.

Murphy is much worse.

 

[SSSSSS]

I honestly don't think I could pick Lachlan Murphy

4

Lachlan Murphy

Age

25

Ht

174cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.8

2star

K

5.8

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.4

5star

G

0.9

4star

D

8.8

2star

K

4.8

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

G

0.7

4star

D

9.0

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

2.8

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.6

5star

G

1.0

4star

out of a line up.

 

[blackus]

I dont think fogarty is totally useless.

As most people agree, he is a great kick at the footy, especially at set shots on goal.

Fogarty thrives as a third tall on a forward flank like a Jack Gunston.

I can see him thrive as a 2nd tall as a Floating CHF kicking 40-50 goals a season like Jack Darling. But the Full forward has to be either a quality key forward or a KPF ruck.

If he was from WA, i would love Fogarty at the dockers, massive upgrade to Sam Sturt and I love Sam Sturt.

I would take Sturt everyday of the week over fogarty. I reckon Jeremy McGovern would have been a Fogarty type player if he hadn’t been so strict with his diet. Gov can cover the ground as well as anyone and still take strong pack marks. I reckon fog needs to lose 10kegs and he would be that key third tall.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

I would take Sturt everyday of the week over fogarty. I reckon Jeremy McGovern would have been a Fogarty type player if he hadn’t been so strict with his diet. Gov can cover the ground as well as anyone and still take strong pack marks. I reckon fog needs to lose 10kegs and he would be that key third tall.

McGovern's been super strict with his diet?

God forbid what he'd look like if he wasn't!!

 

[blackus]

McGovern's been super strict with his diet?

God forbid what he'd look like if he wasn't!!

Govs weight issues have been well documented. In the early days he was told over pre season by Woosha it’s all over of you don’t drop a ton of weight. I reckon he is slimmer than ever right now and you can see it the way he covers the ground. Probably right at his optimum size. Not too light for the forward gorillas and can still cover the smalls as well being more agile.

 

[Freomaniac]

Rate in what way? Where do you see Fogarty getting to?

He's pretty consistent. 10 disposals and a goal per game.

Fogarty is averaging 9.39 disposals a game and 1.5 goals a game.

he is struggling in 2024.

But his 2 or 3 year prior to that, he has been more than useful

 

[Freomaniac]

McGovern's been super strict with his diet?

God forbid what he'd look like if he wasn't!!

You cant fat shame people on here on Bigfooty!

 

[WillHayward]

Fogarty is averaging 9.39 disposals a game and 1.5 goals a game.

he is struggling in 2024.

But his 2 or 3 year prior to that, he has been more than useful

Look you may be right but you aren't right yet.
If he kicks more than 40 in a season then let me know.
I just can't see it happening ever.
He's a good solid footballer but he's not going to move the needle either way
If he is their great white hope then they are in all sorts.
The fact we are even talking about him says everything I need to know about their list currently. It's his 7th season.
Just can't see how he thrives in modern footy. He was a brute as a teenager. I fear he has already peaked .

Hopefully thilthorpe can make it.

 

[BACCS]

Said this in another thread, but I'd like to see a midfield run by Dawson, consisting of Soligo, Dowling, Berry, Rankine and Rachele for the remainder of the season.

Entirely youth focused. Try something to kick-start the midfield woes before addressing it come trade/draft time.

Soligo and Berry have proven to have a bit of mognrel to their game.
Dowling is a pure accumulator with some height and general footy smarts, and is currently playing above a SANFL level.
Rankine and Rachele are your part timers who add that bit of class and X-factor.

There's some talent and balance here.

Once finals are completely out of the equation I'm not sure what there is to lose.

The only fault in your plan is that Dowling isn't part of the AFL setup, so according to our very intelligent coach with a supreme coaching record, he still has faults in his game that have to be worked on at SANFL level.

We also picked up this elite talent in the draft last year, Dan Curtin, maybe people have heard of him? Instead of utilising his attacking weapons like they did late last year at U18 level by trialling him in the midfield, we are instead playing him on hulking full forwards like McBean at SANFL level, when he will never play on that forward type at AFL level with Murray/Keane/Butts/Borlase our main KPDs. Couldn't even get a game off half back to replace an injured and well out of form Brodie Smith against Essendon, who has even admitted this week the back injury was hampering him.

Don't get me started on continually backing in players that are clearly on the delist pile at most clubs such as McHenry, Murphy and Sholl, because they are so good at executing Nicks' 'processes'. Can't have a Dowling or Curtin coming in to provide a bit of spark when these 'processes' are going so well at AFL level.

Oh, and then Nicks talked down to his own supporter base in the presser today when pressed on his reluctance to try anyone new. Questioned whether any of us actually watch SANFL, or just see losses at AFL level and want new players in. Given our coaching panel don't even seem to watch AFL matches atm, it was a bit rich from ol' Nicksy. He's such a good bloke though, didn't ya know? It's what Kingy keeps telling me.

 

[Blackhawk42]

The only fault in your plan is that Dowling isn't part of the AFL setup, so according to our very intelligent coach with a supreme coaching record, he still has faults in his game that have to be worked on at SANFL level.

We also picked up this elite talent in the draft last year, Dan Curtin, maybe people have heard of him? Instead of utilising his attacking weapons like they did late last year at U18 level by trialling him in the midfield, we are instead playing him on hulking full forwards like McBean at SANFL level, when he will never play on that forward type at AFL level with Murray/Keane/Butts/Borlase our main KPDs. Couldn't even get a game off half back to replace an injured and well out of form Brodie Smith against Essendon, who has even admitted this week the back injury was hampering him.

Don't get me started on continually backing in players that are clearly on the delist pile at most clubs such as McHenry, Murphy and Sholl, because they are so good at executing Nicks' 'processes'. Can't have a Dowling or Curtin coming in to provide a bit of spark when these 'processes' are going so well at AFL level.

Oh, and then Nicks talked down to his own supporter base in the presser today when pressed on his reluctance to try anyone new. Questioned whether any of us actually watch SANFL, or just see losses at AFL level and want new players in. Given our coaching panel don't even seem to watch AFL matches atm, it was a bit rich from ol' Nicksy. He's such a good bloke though, didn't ya know? It's what Kingy keeps telling me.

I wanted us to draft Dowling (we took Hustwaite instead, which I'm happy with).

Will be following his career pretty closely. Pretty strange to me that he hasn't been called up yet when there are glaring midfield issues at the Crows. Hopefully they are resolved and it's beneficial for both Billy and Adelaide.

 

[Daka]

I'm struggling who to pick this week in the Showdown, with Port Adelaides out.

Crows should be a big chance at home especially with Aliir Aliir

21

Aliir Aliir

Age

29

Ht

194cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.2

4star

K

9.3

4star

HB

5.9

4star

M

5.2

5star

T

1.9

4star

MG

240.9

4star

D

11.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

5.0

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

3star

D

13.0

4star

K

6.4

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.0

4star

MG

158.4

3star

& Rozee out.
Tex Walker might be in for a big game. not sure I can trust them though.

 

[Jeremias]

But his 2 or 3 year prior to that, he has been more than useful

Fogarty finished outside the top 30 in the Coleman in both 2022 and 2023, and kicked 1 goal or fewer in nearly half the games over that two year period.

"More than useful" is a serious stretch. Bog ordinary is probably closer to the reality.

 

[BACCS]

Fogarty finished outside the top 30 in the Coleman in both 2022 and 2023, and kicked 1 goal or fewer in nearly half the games over that two year period.

"More than useful" is a serious stretch. Bog ordinary is probably closer to the reality.

He was an important cog in our forwardline late in 2022 and all of 2023 and certainly isn't bog ordinary, but we all expected him to take that next step in 2024. It's been a frustrating start to 2024 for him, just like the team really.

We don't need him finishing top 30 in the Coleman, 30-40 goal seasons are fine when we can get a more even distribution across the board like we did in 2023 (6-7 players kicking 20+, at least one 50+). I see Thilthorpe as eventually being our KPF that is having those big 50+ goal seasons once Tex retires, with Fog and Welsh spreading the load for 2nd/3rd talls.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

Interesting to see how Crows forward line functions without Tex.

It looks to be a big hole.

Or …could the other forwards fill the gap with more opportunity?

At some point Tex needs to wonder off into the sunset so this team can take responsibility.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Interesting to see how Crows forward line functions without Tex.

It looks to be a big hole.

Or …could the other forwards fill the gap with more opportunity?

At some point Tex needs to wonder off into the sunset so this team can take responsibility.

Good question.

Think the Crows will be better off without Walker and his bitter cooker mates in Olsen and Roo.

Reckon they have some great kids and in Nicks and Dawson they have two great leaders to take them forward.

 

[Jeremias]

He was an important cog in our forwardline late in 2022 and all of 2023 and certainly isn't bog ordinary, but we all expected him to take that next step in 2024. It's been a frustrating start to 2024 for him, just like the team really.

Nobody is doubting he's an important member of your forward line, but that alone doesn't elevate him above bog ordinary.

There are a lot of bog ordinary footballers who have kicked 30 goals in a season.
Fogarty is dangerous on his day but he doesn't have a big enough impact on a consistent basis to warrant being rated any higher than that.

If he takes his game to the next level he'll be rated accordingly. It doesn't look as though it'll happen this season, maybve it will next year as a 25 year old.

We'll have to wait and see, but I am not holding my breath.

We don't need him finishing top 30 in the Coleman, 30-40 goal seasons are fine when we can get a more even distribution across the board like we did in 2023 (6-7 players kicking 20+, at least one 50+). I see Thilthorpe as eventually being our KPF that is having those big 50+ goal seasons once Tex retires, with Fog and Welsh spreading the load for 2nd/3rd talls.

More even distribution across the park is great and exactly what a side heavily reliant on a 34 year old should be striving for.

But clearly that includes Fogarty. You absolutely need him (and others) to take their games to the next level, wherever that may see him end up on the Coleman ladder.

Top 30 in and of itself is no marker, I simply used it to show how far off it he has been as a goal kicker even in his best seasons to date. Lots of players contribute as much if not more than he does - including many who fit with Darcy in the bog ordinary bucket.

 

[BACCS]

Nobody is doubting he's an important member of your forward line, but that alone doesn't elevate him above bog ordinary.

There are a lot of bog ordinary footballers who have kicked 30 goals in a season.
Fogarty is dangerous on his day but he doesn't have a big enough impact on a consistent basis to warrant being rated any higher than that.

If he takes his game to the next level he'll be rated accordingly. It doesn't look as though it'll happen this season, maybve it will next year as a 25 year old.

We'll have to wait and see, but I am not holding my breath.



More even distribution across the park is great and exactly what a side heavily reliant on a 34 year old should be striving for.

But clearly that includes Fogarty. You absolutely need him (and others) to take their games to the next level, wherever that may see him end up on the Coleman ladder.

Top 30 in and of itself is no marker, I simply used it to show how far off it he has been as a goal kicker even in his best seasons to date. Lots of players contribute as much if not more than he does - including many who fit with Darcy in the bog ordinary bucket.

People see that Tex kick 76 last year and automatically assume we solely rely on him, but if he were our only goal kicker then we would be North. In reality, our high scoring in 2023 came from a really even distribution after Tex.

1​	Taylor Walker​	22​	76​
2​	Izak Rankine​	20​	36​
3​	Darcy Fogarty​	21​	34​
4​	Luke Pedlar​	21​	25​
5​	Josh Rachele​	21​	23​
6​	Ben Keays​	23​	22​
7​	Riley Thilthorpe​	21​	18​

Thilthorpe's injury was really poor timing, as he finally looked primed to step up and try take that number one mantle off Tex. He's the most likely option we have of being that dominant key forward. Entering his 5th season next year and while we still have Tex, really need him to be breaking out and kicking 40+.

 

[Jeremias]

People see that Tex kick 76 last year and automatically assume we solely rely on him, but if he were our only goal kicker then we would be North. In reality, our high scoring in 2023 came from a really even distribution after Tex.

I don't think anyone said you've been solely reliant on Walker. Clearly that is not the case. It's hard to argue though that you haven't been heavily reliant on him.

It's also hard to argue that it isn't anything other than extremely unlikely that a 33/34 year old will be able to reproduce a career year, and therefore those around him need to lift significantly (including but not limited to Fogarty) if you're to take the next step and push into finals.

Thilthorpe's injury was really poor timing, as he finally looked primed to step up and try take that number one mantle off Tex. He's the most likely option we have of being that dominant key forward. Entering his 5th season next year and while we still have Tex, really need him to be breaking out and kicking 40+.

Yes. Thilthorpe is one who you needed to elevate his game in 2024, so the injury is unfortunate for him and the team.

But again, you're talking about a 21 year old with 40 odd games under his belt, who has kicked more than one goal in 10 games out of 41.

I'm not being critical of him at all, but I think if you're expecting him to kick 40 next year, I suspect you're going to be disappointed. He'll have done well to get to 30.

 

[adammania9]

Their defence is far too inexperienced to win enough games to play finals. Following the 254-game Brodie Smith

33

Brodie Smith

Age

32

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.5

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

7.2

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.1

4star

MG

500.1

5star

D

17.1

4star

K

12.6

5star

HB

4.5

3star

M

3.5

3star

T

2.3

3star

MG

438.9

5star

D

17.2

5star

K

10.8

4star

HB

6.4

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

3.6

5star

, the next most experienced back on the list is Wayne Milera

30

Wayne Milera

Age

26

Ht

184cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.9

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

6.8

4star

M

4.3

4star

T

2.5

4star

MG

265.3

4star

D

15.0

4star

K

8.5

3star

HB

6.5

4star

M

3.5

3star

T

1.0

2star

MG

282.0

4star

D

11.4

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

5.6

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.4

4star

MG

182.0

3star

(99) who is out for the year, then Jordon Butts (64) who is probably on borrowed time until Murray returns since Keane has outperformed him this year. They were the highest scoring side in the league last year with a 76-goal kicker but still couldn't play finals (granted, they were robbed of the opportunity). Unfortunately, they peaked last year for a while. Their 2018-2024 is somewhat reminiscent of the Saints from 2012-2018 (obscure comparison I know). Some nifty trade work and quality veterans have papered over the cracks of terrible drafting from 2016-20 (potentially ongoing but too early to tell), and it'll still take some time to get properly into finals contention.

 

[BACCS]

Their defence is far too inexperienced to win enough games to play finals. Following the 254-game Brodie Smith, the next most experienced back on the list is Wayne Milera (99) who is out for the year, then Jordon Butts (64) who is probably on borrowed time until Murray returns since Keane has outperformed him this year. They were the highest scoring side in the league last year with a 76-goal kicker but still couldn't play finals (granted, they were robbed of the opportunity). Unfortunately, they peaked last year for a while. Their 2018-2024 is somewhat reminiscent of the Saints from 2012-2018 (obscure comparison I know). Some nifty trade work and quality veterans have papered over the cracks of terrible drafting from 2016-20 (potentially ongoing but too early to tell), and it'll still take some time to get properly into finals contention.

Our defensive six is the last area of the ground any Crows fan is worried about with Keane, Worrell and Michallaney all coming on these last 1-2 seasons. Especially with Murray to return soon as well. Butts and Borlase are perfectly adequate depth.

Hinge has become our designated kicker and call also play tall if absolutely required, with Curtin to then hopefully come in this week too just to add another elite kick back there.

Heading into 2023 Crows supporters were definitely concerned with this area of the ground, but certainly not now.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Their defence is far too inexperienced to win enough games to play finals. Following the 254-game Brodie Smith, the next most experienced back on the list is Wayne Milera (99) who is out for the year, then Jordon Butts (64) who is probably on borrowed time until Murray returns since Keane has outperformed him this year. They were the highest scoring side in the league last year with a 76-goal kicker but still couldn't play finals (granted, they were robbed of the opportunity). Unfortunately, they peaked last year for a while. Their 2018-2024 is somewhat reminiscent of the Saints from 2012-2018 (obscure comparison I know). Some nifty trade work and quality veterans have papered over the cracks of terrible drafting from 2016-20 (potentially ongoing but too early to tell), and it'll still take some time to get properly into finals contention.

Our defence is the least of our worries as has stood up even with injuries.

Murray (when he returns), Keane & Worrell give us a good spine (with Butts & Borlase providing useful depth).

Michaelanny, Hinge, Nankervis coming along nicely... in the absence of Milera & Smith. Hopefully see Curtin debut this week & Ryan not far behind.

 

[Freomaniac]

He was an important cog in our forwardline late in 2022 and all of 2023 and certainly isn't bog ordinary, but we all expected him to take that next step in 2024. It's been a frustrating start to 2024 for him, just like the team really.

We don't need him finishing top 30 in the Coleman, 30-40 goal seasons are fine when we can get a more even distribution across the board like we did in 2023 (6-7 players kicking 20+, at least one 50+). I see Thilthorpe as eventually being our KPF that is having those big 50+ goal seasons once Tex retires, with Fog and Welsh spreading the load for 2nd/3rd talls.

I agree about your views on fogarty.

He did start slowly in his 1st 3 years in 2018-20. Some KPFs slowly take time to develop.

24 goals and 12 behinds from 17 games in 2021 isnt terrible for a younger tall forward.

33 goals and 17 behinds from 17 games in 2022 is his "break though" year.

34 goals and 23 behinds in 21 games in 2023 is still good.


A fully fit season can get him 40 goals easily and in his prime Fogarty can kick 50-60 goals as a 2nd tall.

Tilthorpe is your full forward. Dont be suprised when he is fully developed, he is doubled teamed in the goal square and Fogarty is free to roam and kick 4 or 5 goals in a game.

 

[Freomaniac]

Their defence is far too inexperienced to win enough games to play finals. Following the 254-game Brodie Smith, the next most experienced back on the list is Wayne Milera (99) who is out for the year, then Jordon Butts (64) who is probably on borrowed time until Murray returns since Keane has outperformed him this year. They were the highest scoring side in the league last year with a 76-goal kicker but still couldn't play finals (granted, they were robbed of the opportunity). Unfortunately, they peaked last year for a while. Their 2018-2024 is somewhat reminiscent of the Saints from 2012-2018 (obscure comparison I know). Some nifty trade work and quality veterans have papered over the cracks of terrible drafting from 2016-20 (potentially ongoing but too early to tell), and it'll still take some time to get properly into finals contention.

Yeah The backline is ok. But I agree not strong enough or experienced enough to play finals.

Yeah Broadie Smith has got 254 games. But when you got the 4 or 5 other team mates with a combined games tally of 254 games, is that a bad thing? depends. Again, that could be Broadie smith and 5 other blokes aged 21-24 with 40-60 games each.

Milera has played 100 games. Is he a defender? Can play on a back flank, but he is a winger.

I think Butts and Murray can play in the best 23. Actually, I think all 3 of Butts, Murray and Keane can play in the best 23.

you are sort of right about Crows 2018-24 side similar to the saints 2012-18 side. Saints nearly made finals in 2016-7. Riewoldt had decent seasons in 2016-7 as well. Then all of a sudden Riewoldt just declined in 2018 and retired.

 

[Golumless]

Interesting to see how Crows forward line functions without Tex.

It looks to be a big hole.

Or …could the other forwards fill the gap with more opportunity?

At some point Tex needs to wonder off into the sunset so this team can take responsibility.

It's certainly the hot-button question at this point. After all, whilst Tex is putting up solid numbers, there are certainly the occasional moment where it looks like the game is just getting too fast for him - some of the frees he gave against Charlie Comben stood out in particular. I don't think we're quite at the point where his game will fall apart, but I also wouldn't be too surprised if that's Tex fate in 2025.

That said, and in a cruel twist of fate, the guy who's the most well equipped to replace Tex and be that genuine line-leading CHF is out with a knee injury in Thilthorpe. Seeing there is a case to be made that Thilthorpe hasn't been given the opportunities in the last couple of years due to Tex and, to a lesser extent, Fogartys form.

Tilthorpe is your full forward. Dont be suprised when he is fully developed, he is doubled teamed in the goal square and Fogarty is free to roam and kick 4 or 5 goals in a game.

I would be very surprised. That double teamed in the goalsquare kind of lad is not Thilthorpe. As much as he's a 202 cm/105+ kg monster, he's not a brute. Of course, he's capable, but the talents that'll carry him when the time comes are elsewhere. The one-wood is the monster tank and the skill level, pushing him more towards a Riedwoldt style of player where it's as much about the roaming and being a focal point to a side. It's just a matter of opportunity and putting it all together, but I think he's just about there with his game - top 10 in contested marks per game in 2023 is the big reason there.

Whereas Fogarty is that brute. Sure, his roaming game has improved in the last twi year, but when I say improved, what I mean is he's gone from completely sucking at it to now where it provides some value. What'll end up holding back is the game Fogarty is pre-disposed to play. He wants to be that physically dominant key forward, but doesn't have the strength to do it - and likely won't at this level. He'll have a solid career, but I doubt there is much more there. Just seems like there is always a flaw that'll hold him back.

I wanted us to draft Dowling (we took Hustwaite instead, which I'm happy with).

Will be following his career pretty closely. Pretty strange to me that he hasn't been called up yet when there are glaring midfield issues at the Crows. Hopefully they are resolved and it's beneficial for both Billy and Adelaide.

Dowling isn't the answer to those midfield problems, not yet anyway. Doesn't fit the profile for a guy who can come in year 1 or 2 and patch holes on the inside, seeing they tend to fall to the inside dominant types.

Still, I suspect he's debut in the next 6 weeks. Just seems stuck in that holding pattern at the moment where they're always the 24-27th person on the list, whether another role player gets first crack to fix a problem, or the return of a best 22 player. That said, Adelaide probably won't go 6-0 in the next stretch, and there is only so long someone can be stuck in that kind of situation before they end up the 22nd selected.

I do quietly think that Cook kicking 3 against the Roos may have prevented Dowling from debuting this week.

 

[Freomaniac]

Fogarty just isn't good enough to be a number one. He's not that tall and not that fast. Yes he's strong and has a nice kick. He would dominate country footy but he won't dominate against AFL standard defenders who are usually taller faster and just as strong.

He's a good third banana at AFL level.

Your thoughts on Fogarty last night?