Analysis Have the Crows botched their rebuild?

[Daka]

Pyke ruined them. Never recovered from the fallout of that stupid leading teams crap. Walker still playing is ridiculous.

Say what you want about Pyke but he did get them to a GF their list was right at the end of their window imo.
with Betts form was starting to waver but still a good player.

Charlie Cameron seemed a much bigger loss retrospectively, he certainly went to another level at the Lions but still the Crows have had some retention issues with quality players for a while.

 

[smish]

Ah, not this again.

Some teams simply refuse to accept that they have stuffed up their rebuild, or rebuilt too harshly. Or just aren't very good at recruiting and trading.

Since 2015, St Kilda, Carlton and Melbourne have rebuilt. The fact that the only Victorian team that hasn't is North Melbourne has nothing to do with how unfair and unjust the competition is.

If it weren't for FS, academies and free agency then the Crows would have Bailey Smith, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Nick Daicos instead of Chayce Jones, Riley Thilthorpe and Josh Rachele.

I don't think anyone can deny that would make a massive difference, no?

 

[kreuze_missile]

You mean like North Melbourne? Scorched earth rebuilds make no sense with the removal of priority picks and the draft being compromised.

What’s the last tear down rebuild that can be pointed to as a success?

There are many examples of clubs who have had sustained success after gutting their lists and rebulding through the draft.

Hawthorn went to the draft in 2000-2005, won an initial flag ahead of their time, and then topped up a bit to win 3 more and have an extended premiership contention window.

Richmond didn't quite bottom out as hard, but did build from a great draft hand between 2007-2010, again topping up (i.e. Lynch & Prestia) to have a highly succesful premiership window between 2017-2020.

Melbourne had great draft hands from 2008-2019. Turned over a heap of players. List build through the draft. Premership window remains open since 2021.

Brisbane had great draft hands from 2014-2018. Practically turned over the entire list from the Voss era. Premiership window open since 2019. Maybe closing now.

North Melbourne is a bizarre example of a club who seemingly wants to have a never-ending rebuild. At some point you've got to stop stockpiling draft picks, start retaining your young talent, and focus on getting competitive again. They will either have a massive premiership run starting in 2028 or be the biggest case of list mis-management in AFL history.

 

[Harris 10]

Ah, not this again.

Some teams simply refuse to accept that they have stuffed up their rebuild, or rebuilt too harshly. Or just aren't very good at recruiting and trading.

Since 2015, St Kilda, Carlton and Melbourne have rebuilt. The fact that the only Victorian team that hasn't is North Melbourne has nothing to do with how unfair and unjust the competition is.

The system is wrong when all 18 teams don’t have access to players like Darcy, JUH, Ashcroft, Mills, Blakey, Daicos, Walter, Tom Green.
Last year 25% of the first 20 picks were unavailable to all clubs and were matched with rubbish late picks.

None of the big name free agents ever go to rebuilding clubs which maintains the gap in the string and the week.

My team added to their own issues by botching development and a heap of other off field stuff. Other teams have been a lot better in these areas and still struggle to rebuild because of the things I’ve raised.

 

[joe444]

If it weren't for FS, academies and free agency then the Crows would have Bailey Smith, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Nick Daicos instead of Chayce Jones, Riley Thilthorpe and Josh Rachele.

I don't think anyone can deny that would make a massive difference, no?

Indeed, but that's a rule that applies to everybody else, too.

The idea, though that the rules are skewed against teams trying to rebuild is ridiculous. In fact:
2023: Adelaide Academies Manager Jarrod Meers says the Club is about to hit a “sweet spot” when it comes to potential father-son talents.

So, no, I don't accept that there is a bias against rebuilding teams.

 

[Daka]

North Melbourne is a bizarre example of a club who seemingly wants to have a never-ending rebuild. At some point you've got to stop stockpiling draft picks, start retaining your young talent, and focus on getting competitive again. They will either have a massive premiership run starting in 2028 or be the biggest case of list mis-management in AFL history.

North Melbourne is an example of what can happen if you cut too deeply, It's better to remain competitive while slowly introducing young talent to learn or else they will pick up bad habits. I truly believe in that.

 

[BACCS]

Yeah, I was just looking at the 2020 draft again. Of the top 20 picks, Adelaide have Thilthorpe and Pedlar.
Geelong have Bruhn, O Henry and Holmes.
That's pretty stark.

Thilthorpe is a 200cm KPF/ruck, they always take time as anyone well knows. He was decent last year and looked like 2024 could be the breakout until injury, which has set us back. Pedlar kicked 30 goals last year and was very important to our high scoring; low disposal count, but high hurt factor.

Bruhn wasn’t actually drafted by Geelong, btw.

 

[joe444]

None of the big name free agents ever go to rebuilding clubs which maintains the gap in the string and the week.

Again, not true. Lowly North got Dal Santo, Waite and Higgins through free agency.
Lowly Essendon nabbed Goddard.

Geelong have got bugger all out of free agency, unless you count Dahlhaus and Scott Selwood as amazing gets. People forget Geelong traded for Cameron, giving up three first round picks which they had strategically planned to accrue.

The "free agents go to big clubs" claim is largely a myth. They go all over the place, and it's only when they play in a premiership that anyone notices.

 

[joe444]

Thilthorpe is a 200cm KPF/ruck, they always take time as anyone well knows. He was decent last year and looked like 2024 could be the breakout until injury, which has set us back. Pedlar kicked 30 goals last year and was very important to our high scoring; low disposal count, but high hurt factor.

Bruhn wasn’t actually drafted by Geelong, btw.

My point was about trading and what was possible. Henry wasn't either.

 

[BACCS]

Indeed, but that's a rule that applies to everybody else, too.

The idea, though that the rules are skewed against teams trying to rebuild is ridiculous. In fact:
2023: Adelaide Academies Manager Jarrod Meers says the Club is about to hit a “sweet spot” when it comes to potential father-son talents.

So, no, I don't accept that there is a bias against rebuilding teams.

We are about to get Tyler Welsh, who is very clearly a top 10 talent this year. Benefited from Michelaney last year. Starting to get that free talent is helping.

I hate going through draft misses anyway, all clubs have them. McAsey was an AA U18 in an area of need for us, that it didn’t work out is not ideal, but the selection made sense. Serong is a great player, but seems a very similar type of mid to what we already have. In any case, we have been able to build our KPD stocks on the cheap with Murray and Keane, who look our combo for the next decade.

 

[JimmyBC]

The system is wrong when all 18 teams don’t have access to players like Darcy, JUH, Ashcroft, Mills, Blakey, Daicos, Walter, Tom Green.
Last year 25% of the first 20 picks were unavailable to all clubs and were matched with rubbish late picks.

None of the big name free agents ever go to rebuilding clubs which maintains the gap in the string and the week.

My team added to their own issues by botching development and a heap of other off field stuff. Other teams have been a lot better in these areas and still struggle to rebuild because of the things I’ve raised.

The FS probably should mean giving up a round 1 pick if the player is rated in that range.

 

[BACCS]

My point was about trading and what was possible. Henry wasn't either.

Yeah, and we have traded in Dawson and Rankine to help offset some draft misses. Drafted a very promising midfield talent in Soligo with pick 36 (the best young A grade potential talent we have). Drafted cheap KPDs (Butts, Keane and Murray) to offset the miss with McAsey.

 

[Harris 10]

Again, not true. Lowly North got Dal Santo, Waite and Higgins through free agency.
Lowly Essendon nabbed Goddard.

Geelong have got bugger all out of free agency, unless you count Dahlhaus and Scott Selwood as amazing gets. People forget Geelong traded for Cameron, giving up three first round picks which they had strategically planned to accrue.

The "free agents go to big clubs" claim is largely a myth. They go all over the place, and it's only when they play in a premiership that anyone notices.

Free agents go to competing clubs is what I said, all those players you mentioned did that. Goddard got screwed over by the drug saga though.

 

[kreuze_missile]

Free agents go to competing clubs is what I said, all those players you mentioned did that. Goddard got screwed over by the drug saga though.

Not always.

Essendon got 45 year old Todd Goldstein

 

[Ambrosia]

Ah, not this again.

Some teams simply refuse to accept that they have stuffed up their rebuild, or rebuilt too harshly. Or just aren't very good at recruiting and trading.

Since 2015, St Kilda, Carlton and Melbourne have rebuilt. The fact that the only Victorian team that hasn't is North Melbourne has nothing to do with how unfair and unjust the competition is.

I’m just not sure the tear down rebuild is the right method. The AFL still has a ton of poorly run clubs (my team is one of them) there’s a huge competitive advantage to be had just by employing a good footy department and letting them run your club without meddling from non footy people.

I don’t see much value in the 2000s style tear down rebuild unless you’ve mismanaged your list to the point where that’s the only option.

 

[Harris 10]

The FS probably should mean giving up a round 1 pick if the player is rated in that range.

Take the 20% discount away on all these gifts for starters.

 

[citizen-erased]

still think they're good side building and will be prone to bursts of inconsistency.

I really like Soligo in the middle. Still a bit rough, but is only 21.
Curtin will be a good player once ready. And i liked the Edwards pick.
Rankine is a gun, but like many small fwd/mids, will have on and off days.

They always recruit well in defence and have a bit to work with there
Fog + Thilthorpe are good fwds...just need to keep Riley on the pitch.

 

[Macca19]

Not sure their rebuild is botched, its just still going. This year seems more a coaching/gamestyle issue than a talent issue.

 

[Macca19]

I'm mainly interested to see how Thilthorpe and Fogarty go once Walker retires. Fogarty is just ok, Thilthorpe has underwhelmed. Can either/both become the 50-60 goal a year target once Walker retires?

 

[40porpoise]

Kind of yes, kind of no.

If we had a good aggressive coach I think we could make finals, but we're still crying out for another elite mid, and Tyler Welsh has big shoes to fill when Tex retires.

 

[Fat Nyfe]

They lack a soul. They have no soul. They need a father like figure in Ken Hinkley ro restore their pride.

And Port need a fresh outlook to reinvigorate them.

I’m sensing a coach swap

 

[JimmyBC]

And Port need a fresh outlook to reinvigorate them.

I’m sensing a coach swap

Nicks is a Hinkley student I'd rather dip my balls in lava.

 

[tonygeeks]

Big statements on topics like this are over-reactions

Every club is one hit it out of the park draft away from being right back in it

Even WC


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[citizen-erased]

Probably because he’s an elite key forward and has kicked 50+ goals in a season before. We also had 7 other players kick 20-30+ goals last year too, it wasn’t all just Tex (otherwise you end up like North with Larkey).

he had a couple of feasts on poor backlines too didn't he?
Anyone doubling up against roos and eagles will find themselves with an additional 10ish goals to their tally.

 

[blueboy25]

Did Tex having a big year in 2023 paper over a few cracks?

At his age those little niggling injuries are starting to creep in and he may not get a clean run at it again.