Prediction The Rolling Outrageous Claims Thread

[Warhorse]

Shaun Mannagh takes the lead in the only objective measure I choose acknowledge

2024 coaches votes:
Schultz 0
Mannagh 1

I'm of the belief that Mannagh is a better player than Schultz and only poor selection has stopped this from being a great call

 

[Warhorse]

This one should get the juices flowing...

Duncan has not one, but two decent seasons of footy left in him. His 300th game will still have people incorrectly shaking their heads that he should've hung them up in 2022.

This is an underrated call. Every week there seems to be people wanted him dropped yet one of the few in the team that is able to get 20 touches a game.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I'm of the belief that Mannagh is a better player than Schultz and only poor selection has stopped this from being a great call

I was running on an opinion of him being a pure forward pocket goal sneak too. Didn't see Mannagh as having an impact defensively through the middle of the ground and impacting midfield like he had in the weekend.

 

[calder_daddy]

CatToTheFuture
Mannagh vs Schultz head 2 head stats last night?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

CatToTheFuture
Mannagh vs Schultz head 2 head stats last night?

Be rude not dip into that thanks Calder

Bit harsh to judge Schultz given the headclash limiting his impact to 85 minutes against Shaun's 105 minutes, but even with limited time the impact for Lachie should be stark given the big ticket trade value attached.

Let's have a look.

Moving the footy:
Start with where Mannagh has the advantage of being deployed further afield, though as the premium trade in Schultzy should at least match it with the state leaguer.

Shaun 14d @ 71% DE% isn't bad for a small forward. 20% defensive half, 80% forwards half and 232m gained. Rocks the box but for marquee trade you would expect youn Lachie to walk this one in. Let's check the data and ... umm.... oh dear... I see it says 10d @ 70% DE%. 141m gained also reflecting his tendency to handpass rather than bite off the attacking kick suggesting is 71% DE% is worse than it looks.

I guess factoring for the difference in game time (which I'm told is a totally valid linear extrapolation, can you confirm Warhorse ?) You get to 11 as the bar for young Lachie which he failed to meet. If we torture the data a bit we can say that at best Lachie was not worse than Shaun. But I am more interested in hyperbole so I will state that Mannagh was better as observed fact.

There are other elements to footy though so let's check some other angles.


Scoring:
Well Schultz is usually deployed closer to goal so I expect him to be the finisher and track up a few goals and assists. Shaun got 1 goal 1, 1 goal assist, 6 score involvements. Lachie's bread and butter so expect him to dominate here and let's see... erm... 0 goals 1 behind, zero assists, 5 involvements. Ok that's not great but given the sub out we can probably be generous and say maybe he kicks a goal in the last 20 minutes, but given we had clear ascendancy by then probably not. So judgement is at best neutral if you make the excuses, but if we're honest it's a loss for Lachie here.

Not the result the Collingwood list managers expected there I'll wager.


Defensive work:
12 pressure acts, 4 tackles, 2 of which were inside 50 for young Lachie. You can't say he didn't run both ways but we aren't talking elite impacts here. That's fine, Shaun is fresh out the VFL, he won't be used to the pace of AFL and is unlikely to be able to keep up with seasoned AFL forwards and mids. Expect Schultz to hold ground here. Right?

... right ?!?

Well no. The bloke from the half pace ressies came up and applied 25 pressure acts and was obviously better defensively.

Win to Mannagh here outright no matter how you spin it.


Numbers can lie though. What does the vision tell you?

The vision tells me they are the same age, the same height, the same position, and overall very similar players. Shaun is however better defensively and gets much better return from his kicking which has much more penetration.

 

[Cataholic]

So I just want to bring everyone's attention to the fact that, as predicted, BT has continued to rise through the ranks of commentary, and is now universally lauded for his knowledge and understanding of the game, and the superlative quality of his commentary.

 

[catempire]

Back to back Swans flags still in lockstep with my prediction.

 

[Mr Meow]

In contrast to recent trend at the club of our veterans having careers that extend well into their 30s, most players currently in the 24-29 year age group for us will finish up at a much younger age. In the end, none of the following premiership players (plus Jack Bowes) will make it to 200 games:

Tom Atkins (currently 27 years old, 105 games played)
Jack Bowes (currently 26 years old, 100 games played)
Zach Guthrie (currently 25 years old, 77 games played)
Jake Kolodjashnij (currently 28 years old, 174 games played)
Mark O'Connor (currently 27 years old, 109 games played)
Brandan Parfitt (currently 25 years old, 121 games played)
Tyson Stengle (currently 25 years old, 60 games played)

Kolo is obviously the best chance to prove me wrong. I'm basing my assumption on him retiring early due to concussion/injuries though.

I think these 3, and perhaps Stengle, are going to prove you wrong.

Bowes game doesn't really depend on speed, the two defenders look capable of becoming 30+ year old veterans and Stengle is so talented, with a late start, that reaching 31-32 wouldn't be a big surprise.

 

[Mr Meow]

Brad Close won’t be getting a game for us in 2025
He will get dropped and replaced and won’t get another afl life line

WRONG!

Goal assist King.

 

[Mr Meow]

This one should get the juices flowing...

Duncan has not one, but two decent seasons of footy left in him. His 300th game will still have people incorrectly shaking their heads that he should've hung them up in 2022.

This one has solid potential to play out, right through to people incorrectly shaking their heads at supposedly retirement-worthy form.

 

[calder_daddy]

WRONG!

Goal assist King.

He did have a patchy time a few weeks back and people were calling for him to be dropped.
I feel like that will be the closest I get

 

[winty]

Be rude not dip into that thanks Calder

Bit harsh to judge Schultz given the headclash limiting his impact to 85 minutes against Shaun's 105 minutes, but even with limited time the impact for Lachie should be stark given the big ticket trade value attached.

Let's have a look.

Moving the footy:
Start with where Mannagh has the advantage of being deployed further afield, though as the premium trade in Schultzy should at least match it with the state leaguer.

Shaun 14d @ 71% DE% isn't bad for a small forward. 20% defensive half, 80% forwards half and 232m gained. Rocks the box but for marquee trade you would expect youn Lachie to walk this one in. Let's check the data and ... umm.... oh dear... I see it says 10d @ 70% DE%. 141m gained also reflecting his tendency to handpass rather than bite off the attacking kick suggesting is 71% DE% is worse than it looks.

I guess factoring for the difference in game time (which I'm told is a totally valid linear extrapolation, can you confirm Warhorse ?) You get to 11 as the bar for young Lachie which he failed to meet. If we torture the data a bit we can say that at best Lachie was not worse than Shaun. But I am more interested in hyperbole so I will state that Mannagh was better as observed fact.

There are other elements to footy though so let's check some other angles.


Scoring:
Well Schultz is usually deployed closer to goal so I expect him to be the finisher and track up a few goals and assists. Shaun got 1 goal 1, 1 goal assist, 6 score involvements. Lachie's bread and butter so expect him to dominate here and let's see... erm... 0 goals 1 behind, zero assists, 5 involvements. Ok that's not great but given the sub out we can probably be generous and say maybe he kicks a goal in the last 20 minutes, but given we had clear ascendancy by then probably not. So judgement is at best neutral if you make the excuses, but if we're honest it's a loss for Lachie here.

Not the result the Collingwood list managers expected there I'll wager.


Defensive work:
12 pressure acts, 4 tackles, 2 of which were inside 50 for young Lachie. You can't say he didn't run both ways but we aren't talking elite impacts here. That's fine, Shaun is fresh out the VFL, he won't be used to the pace of AFL and is unlikely to be able to keep up with seasoned AFL forwards and mids. Expect Schultz to hold ground here. Right?

... right ?!?

Well no. The bloke from the half pace ressies came up and applied 25 pressure acts and was obviously better defensively.

Win to Mannagh here outright no matter how you spin it.


Numbers can lie though. What does the vision tell you?

The vision tells me they are the same age, the same height, the same position, and overall very similar players. Shaun is however better defensively and gets much better return from his kicking which has much more penetration.

This post needs to be framed and hung in the Louvre. Pure art.