Fixture The Run to Finals

[Old Campaigner]

I can get us as low at 11th in two rounds if the results fall the right (wrong) way

 

[eth-dog]

Sooo... Are we still finished guys?

 

[JayJ20]

Hawthorn could do us a huge favour the next two games. Beat Geelong and Fremantle. Also beat Carlton and crash and burn for the other games.

I want the following to happen today:

Port vs Bulldogs
Geelong vs Hawthorn
GWS vs Carlton although I guess widening our gap with GWS isn't a terrible thing, but we're only half a win behind Carlton if they lose.

I suppose I want North to beat Gold Coast and Richmond to beat Fremantle, but that's unlikely.

Beat Melbourne next week and I think top 4 is more likely than not.

 

[JT_the_Man]

I mean I’m not convinced we pull it off, but my ladder predictor has us making top 4.

 

[Bombers36]

We are a lock for finals and now hunting a top 4 spot.

In the coming 5 weeks we have the Demons without Gawn, Crows without Rankine, then Saints, Dockers & Suns all in Victoria. We will start favorite in all of those games…
Then we have Sydney at Marvel - the Swans are starting to look not so invincible so we are a huge chance here if we bring our A game.
Last game is Brisbane in Brisbane and I’m never confident playing the Lions on their home turf - but it will be a good test leading into the finals.
I feel like the Cats will make a strong run now and Dockers will drop off a little meaning we can snare a top four spot if we win the games we should in our relatively easy run home...

 

[ghostdog]

We are a lock for finals and now hunting a top 4 spot.

In the coming 5 weeks we have the Demons without Gawn, Crows without Rankine, then Saints, Dockers & Suns all in Victoria. We will start favorite in all of those games…
Then we have Sydney at Marvel - the Swans are starting to look not so invincible so we are a huge chance here if we bring our A game.
Last game is Brisbane in Brisbane and I’m never confident playing the Lions on their home turf - but it will be a good test leading into the finals.
I feel like the Cats will make a strong run now and Dockers will drop off a little meaning we can snare a top four spot if we win the games we should in our relatively easy run home...

The Dockers have only lost two of their last ten games. They were blown out of the water in one of those losses - an away game. They then 'grew up', as Dimma would put it, and beat Sydney away. I don't think they're just going to drop off at all.

I can see us beating Melbourne, St Kilda and Gold Coast, losing to Brisbane by a big margin and being 50/50 against both Freo and Sydney, especially Sydney; I think we'll rise to that occasion.

Edit: forgot Adelaide. We should beat them comfortably.

 

[eth-dog]

We are a lock for finals and now hunting a top 4 spot.

In the coming 5 weeks we have the Demons without Gawn, Crows without Rankine, then Saints, Dockers & Suns all in Victoria. We will start favorite in all of those games…
Then we have Sydney at Marvel - the Swans are starting to look not so invincible so we are a huge chance here if we bring our A game.
Last game is Brisbane in Brisbane and I’m never confident playing the Lions on their home turf - but it will be a good test leading into the finals.
I feel like the Cats will make a strong run now and Dockers will drop off a little meaning we can snare a top four spot if we win the games we should in our relatively easy run home...

We aren't a lock. You said the same thing this time last year. We should make finals but we aren't a lock. We're a lock when it becomes mathematically impossible for us to miss and only then.

 

[joey_jo_jo]

Dockers definitely is the game I most worry about (other than obvious two of swans and lions but hopefully we have a spot sewn up by then).
This week is a big one, I hope the pressure of being favourite doesn't get to us, if we win this it makes the next 4 games a lot easier to navigate.
The other darkhorse is saints, they could really disrupt us with their defensive system if our midfield/fwd connection continues to flounder.

 

[Bombers36]

We aren't a lock. You said the same thing this time last year. We should make finals but we aren't a lock. We're a lock when it becomes mathematically impossible for us to miss and only then.

Very different this year to last year Ethan...

 

[faible]

We aren't a lock. You said the same thing this time last year. We should make finals but we aren't a lock. We're a lock when it becomes mathematically impossible for us to miss and only then.

At least they're being positive unlike some other supporters!

 

[eth-dog]

The remaining 7 games for 3rd to 13th (nobody really out of it yet):

Fremantle: Haw (YP, 50/50), Mel (PS, 50/50), WC (PS, W), Ess (MCG, 50/50), Gee (PS, 50/50), GWS (SS, 50/50), PA (PS, 50/50)

Essendon: Mel (MCG, 50/50), Ade (Doc, W), StK (Doc, W), Fre (MCG, 50/50), GC (Doc, 50/50), Syd (Doc, L), Bri (G, 50/50)

Geelong: Col (MCG, 50/50), WB (KP, 50/50), NM (BO, W), Ade (KP, W), Fre (PS, 50/50), StK (Doc, W), WC (KP, W)

Port Adelaide: GC (Car, 50/50), Ric (AO, W), Car (Doc, L), Syd (AO, L), Mel (MCG, 50/50), Ade (AO, 50/50), Fre (PS, 50/50)

Brisbane: WC (PS, W), Syd (G, L), GC (Car, 50/50), StK (Doc, W), GWS (G, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50), Ess (G, 50/50)

Greater Western Sydney: Ric (MCG, W), GC (SS, 50/50), Mel (MCG (50/50), Haw (Man, 50/50), Bri (G, 50/50), Fre (SS, 50/50), WB (ES, 50/50)

Collingwood (all MCG): Gee (50/50), Haw (50/50), Ric (50/50), Car (L), Syd (L), Bro (50/50), Mel (50/50)

Melbourne: Ess (MCG, 50/50), Fre (PS, 50/50), GWS (MCG, 50/50), WB (Doc, 50/50), PA (MCG, 50/50), GC (Car, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50)

Western Bulldogs: Car (Doc, L), Gee (KP, 50/50), Syd (SCG, L), Mel (Doc, 50/50), Ade (AO, W), NM (Doc, W), GWS (ES, 50/50)

Gold Coast: PA (Car, 50/50), GWS (SS, 50/50), Bri (Car, 50/50), WC (PS, W), Ess (Doc, 50/50), Mel (Car, 50/50), Ric (MCG, W)

Hawthorne: Fre (YP, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50), Ade (AO, W), GWS (Man, 50/50), Car (MCG, 50/50), Ric (MCG, W), NM (YP, W)

Index:

YP, York Park
PS, Perth Stadium
MCG, Melbourne Cricket Ground
SS, Sydney Showgrounds
Doc, Docklands
G, Gabba
KP, Kardinia Park
BO, Bellerive Oval
Car, Cararra (GC)
AO, Adelaide Oval
Man, Manuka (Canberra)
ES, Eureka Stadium (Ballarat)

 

[eth-dog]

Very different this year to last year Ethan...

In that it's even more open? Yep. Last year we had two games we were very likely to win (NM/WC), three 50/50's (WB, Syd, GWS) and two games we were likely to lose (Gee, Col). This year we have two games we're very likely to win (Ade, StK), four 50/50's (Mel, Fre, GC, Bri) and one game we're likely to lose (Syd).

We were in a very similar position in terms of how far in the 8 we were too!

 

[The Prosecutor]

The remaining 7 games for 3rd to 13th (nobody really out of it yet):

Fremantle: Haw (YP, W), Mel (PS, 50/50), WC (PS, W), Ess (MCG, 50/50), Gee (PS, 50/50), GWS (SS, 50/50), PA (PS, 50/50)

Essendon: Mel (MCG, 50/50), Ade (Doc, W), StK (Doc, W), Fre (MCG, 50/50), GC (Doc, 50/50), Syd (Doc, L), Bri (G, 50/50)

Geelong: Col (MCG, 50/50), WB (KP, 50/50), NM (BO, W), Ade (KP, W), Fre (PS, 50/50), StK (Doc, W), WC (KP, W)

Port Adelaide: GC (Car, 50/50), Ric (AO, W), Car (Doc, L), Syd (AO, L), Mel (MCG, 50/50), Ade (AO, 50/50), Fre (PS, 50/50)

Brisbane: WC (PS, W), Syd (G, L), GC (Car, 50/50), StK (Doc, W), GWS (G, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50), Ess (G, 50/50)

Greater Western Sydney: Ric (MCG, W), GC (SS, 50/50), Mel (MCG (50/50), Haw (Man, 50/50), Bri (G, 50/50), Fre (SS, 50/50), WB (ES, 50/50)

Collingwood (all MCG): Gee (50/50), Haw (50/50), Ric (50/50), Car (L), Syd (L), Bro (50/50), Mel (50/50)

Melbourne: Ess (MCG, 50/50), Fre (PS, 50/50), GWS (MCG, 50/50), WB (Doc, 50/50), PA (MCG, 50/50), GC (Car, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50)

Western Bulldogs: Car (Doc, L), Gee (KP, 50/50), Syd (SCG, L), Mel (Doc, 50/50), Ade (AO, W), NM (Doc, W), GWS (ES, 50/50)

Gold Coast: PA (Car, 50/50), GWS (SS, 50/50), Bri (Car, 50/50), WC (PS, W), Ess (Doc, 50/50), Mel (Car, 50/50), Ric (MCG, W)

Hawthorne: Fre (YP, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50), Ade (AO, W), GWS (Man, 50/50), Car (MCG, 50/50), Ric (MCG, W), NM (YP, W)

Index:

YP, York Park
PS, Perth Stadium
MCG, Melbourne Cricket Ground
SS, Sydney Showgrounds
Doc, Docklands
G, Gabba
KP, Kardinia Park
BO, Bellerive Oval
Car, Cararra (GC)
AO, Adelaide Oval
Man, Manuka (Canberra)
ES, Eureka Stadium (Ballarat)

Not to nitpick, but I don't see how Hawks in Tassie are a win for Freo, yet Melbourne over there without Gawn & Petracca is a 50/50.

 

[eth-dog]

Not to nitpick, but I don't see how Hawks in Tassie are a win for Freo, yet Melbourne over there without Gawn & Petracca is a 50/50.

Both should be 50/50, actually haha.

 

[Jobe Watson]

The only games we should be losing are the final two, and even then Sydney in Melbourne are beatable. No excuses for dropping any of the others.

 

[Mercurial89]

In that it's even more open? Yep. Last year we had two games we were very likely to win (NM/WC), three 50/50's (WB, Syd, GWS) and two games we were likely to lose (Gee, Col). This year we have two games we're very likely to win (Ade, StK), four 50/50's (Mel, Fre, GC, Bri) and one game we're likely to lose (Syd).

We were in a very similar position in terms of how far in the 8 we were too!

I think it's generous to have the lions game as a 50/50.

It's certainly all within our control though.
1 focused offseason of "extra" work doesn't mean we suddenly run out the year well though, it normally takes few years to build.

I think the biggest thing for me is the mentality shift. I did not believe we had changed tbh, still too much of the same old list that is happy to be there and the first quarter against pies was proof positive for me to carry on believing the collapse was coming.

Now it still may but I don't think it's guaranteed anymore, and if it is it's more just talent and not being ready rather than the group collectively thinking it's all too hard and giving up.

I think 6th-8th is reasonable expectation from here. But I do long for a top four finish with possibly Carlton first up somehow.
The energy in Melbourne would be electric

 

[dank420_]

The remaining 7 games for 3rd to 13th (nobody really out of it yet):

Fremantle: Haw (YP, 50/50), Mel (PS, 50/50), WC (PS, W), Ess (MCG, 50/50), Gee (PS, 50/50), GWS (SS, 50/50), PA (PS, 50/50)

Essendon: Mel (MCG, 50/50), Ade (Doc, W), StK (Doc, W), Fre (MCG, 50/50), GC (Doc, 50/50), Syd (Doc, L), Bri (G, 50/50)

Geelong: Col (MCG, 50/50), WB (KP, 50/50), NM (BO, W), Ade (KP, W), Fre (PS, 50/50), StK (Doc, W), WC (KP, W)

Port Adelaide: GC (Car, 50/50), Ric (AO, W), Car (Doc, L), Syd (AO, L), Mel (MCG, 50/50), Ade (AO, 50/50), Fre (PS, 50/50)

Brisbane: WC (PS, W), Syd (G, L), GC (Car, 50/50), StK (Doc, W), GWS (G, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50), Ess (G, 50/50)

Greater Western Sydney: Ric (MCG, W), GC (SS, 50/50), Mel (MCG (50/50), Haw (Man, 50/50), Bri (G, 50/50), Fre (SS, 50/50), WB (ES, 50/50)

Collingwood (all MCG): Gee (50/50), Haw (50/50), Ric (50/50), Car (L), Syd (L), Bro (50/50), Mel (50/50)

Melbourne: Ess (MCG, 50/50), Fre (PS, 50/50), GWS (MCG, 50/50), WB (Doc, 50/50), PA (MCG, 50/50), GC (Car, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50)

Western Bulldogs: Car (Doc, L), Gee (KP, 50/50), Syd (SCG, L), Mel (Doc, 50/50), Ade (AO, W), NM (Doc, W), GWS (ES, 50/50)

Gold Coast: PA (Car, 50/50), GWS (SS, 50/50), Bri (Car, 50/50), WC (PS, W), Ess (Doc, 50/50), Mel (Car, 50/50), Ric (MCG, W)

Hawthorne: Fre (YP, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50), Ade (AO, W), GWS (Man, 50/50), Car (MCG, 50/50), Ric (MCG, W), NM (YP, W)

Index:

YP, York Park
PS, Perth Stadium
MCG, Melbourne Cricket Ground
SS, Sydney Showgrounds
Doc, Docklands
G, Gabba
KP, Kardinia Park
BO, Bellerive Oval
Car, Cararra (GC)
AO, Adelaide Oval
Man, Manuka (Canberra)
ES, Eureka Stadium (Ballarat)

I was gonna tell you to go outside but to be fair it’s miserable out there

 

[ghostdog]

The remaining 7 games for 3rd to 13th (nobody really out of it yet):

Fremantle: Haw (YP, 50/50), Mel (PS, 50/50), WC (PS, W), Ess (MCG, 50/50), Gee (PS, 50/50), GWS (SS, 50/50), PA (PS, 50/50)

Essendon: Mel (MCG, 50/50), Ade (Doc, W), StK (Doc, W), Fre (MCG, 50/50), GC (Doc, 50/50), Syd (Doc, L), Bri (G, 50/50)

Geelong: Col (MCG, 50/50), WB (KP, 50/50), NM (BO, W), Ade (KP, W), Fre (PS, 50/50), StK (Doc, W), WC (KP, W)

Port Adelaide: GC (Car, 50/50), Ric (AO, W), Car (Doc, L), Syd (AO, L), Mel (MCG, 50/50), Ade (AO, 50/50), Fre (PS, 50/50)

Brisbane: WC (PS, W), Syd (G, L), GC (Car, 50/50), StK (Doc, W), GWS (G, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50), Ess (G, 50/50)

Greater Western Sydney: Ric (MCG, W), GC (SS, 50/50), Mel (MCG (50/50), Haw (Man, 50/50), Bri (G, 50/50), Fre (SS, 50/50), WB (ES, 50/50)

Collingwood (all MCG): Gee (50/50), Haw (50/50), Ric (50/50), Car (L), Syd (L), Bro (50/50), Mel (50/50)

Melbourne: Ess (MCG, 50/50), Fre (PS, 50/50), GWS (MCG, 50/50), WB (Doc, 50/50), PA (MCG, 50/50), GC (Car, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50)

Western Bulldogs: Car (Doc, L), Gee (KP, 50/50), Syd (SCG, L), Mel (Doc, 50/50), Ade (AO, W), NM (Doc, W), GWS (ES, 50/50)

Gold Coast: PA (Car, 50/50), GWS (SS, 50/50), Bri (Car, 50/50), WC (PS, W), Ess (Doc, 50/50), Mel (Car, 50/50), Ric (MCG, W)

Hawthorne: Fre (YP, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50), Ade (AO, W), GWS (Man, 50/50), Car (MCG, 50/50), Ric (MCG, W), NM (YP, W)

Index:

YP, York Park
PS, Perth Stadium
MCG, Melbourne Cricket Ground
SS, Sydney Showgrounds
Doc, Docklands
G, Gabba
KP, Kardinia Park
BO, Bellerive Oval
Car, Cararra (GC)
AO, Adelaide Oval
Man, Manuka (Canberra)
ES, Eureka Stadium (Ballarat)

Melbourne's run home sucks. No Trac. No Gawn. They're not playing finals.

 

[The Prosecutor]

At this point I’m pretty confident

3 wins: 7-8
4 wins: 5-6
5+ wins: top 4

 

[jdstorm]

If we want to be considered a good side we should get the next 3

From there we will have 3 games against potential top 4 sides and will have to earn that spot.

I think the team is still going through some learnings but hopefully they find a way to fix up their transition attack as the list is really starting to make sense

 

[Dave]

I think the biggest thing for me is the mentality shift. I did not believe we had changed tbh, still too much of the same old list that is happy to be there and the first quarter against pies was proof positive for me to carry on believing the collapse was coming.

Take out three minutes of whoever was on Crisp having an allergic reaction to being with cooee of him and the quarter wasn't as bad as others we've played. We just let him off the hook for some reason.

I think the response in the nest three quarters shows more who/what the team has become than what occurred in the first.

 

[Mercurial89]

Take out three minutes of whoever was on Crisp having an allergic reaction to being with cooee of him and the quarter wasn't as bad as others we've played. We just let him off the hook for some reason.

I think the response in the nest three quarters shows more who/what the team has become than what occurred in the first.

Yeah possibly with the benefit of hindsight.
At the time I was furious though.
I'd also been doubting us since like round 9 because I just don't think we have played that well, so It kind of affirmed what I'd been thinking after the Geelong collapse and that start.

 

[joey_jo_jo]

Take out three minutes of whoever was on Crisp having an allergic reaction to being with cooee of him and the quarter wasn't as bad as others we've played. We just let him off the hook for some reason.

I think the response in the nest three quarters shows more who/what the team has become than what occurred in the first.

Add to that the two goals directly from unforced errors by ridley and perkins.

 

[JayJ20]

The remaining 7 games for 3rd to 13th (nobody really out of it yet):

Fremantle: Haw (YP, 50/50), Mel (PS, 50/50), WC (PS, W), Ess (MCG, 50/50), Gee (PS, 50/50), GWS (SS, 50/50), PA (PS, 50/50)

Essendon: Mel (MCG, 50/50), Ade (Doc, W), StK (Doc, W), Fre (MCG, 50/50), GC (Doc, 50/50), Syd (Doc, L), Bri (G, 50/50)

Geelong: Col (MCG, 50/50), WB (KP, 50/50), NM (BO, W), Ade (KP, W), Fre (PS, 50/50), StK (Doc, W), WC (KP, W)

Port Adelaide: GC (Car, 50/50), Ric (AO, W), Car (Doc, L), Syd (AO, L), Mel (MCG, 50/50), Ade (AO, 50/50), Fre (PS, 50/50)

Brisbane: WC (PS, W), Syd (G, L), GC (Car, 50/50), StK (Doc, W), GWS (G, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50), Ess (G, 50/50)

Greater Western Sydney: Ric (MCG, W), GC (SS, 50/50), Mel (MCG (50/50), Haw (Man, 50/50), Bri (G, 50/50), Fre (SS, 50/50), WB (ES, 50/50)

Collingwood (all MCG): Gee (50/50), Haw (50/50), Ric (50/50), Car (L), Syd (L), Bro (50/50), Mel (50/50)

Melbourne: Ess (MCG, 50/50), Fre (PS, 50/50), GWS (MCG, 50/50), WB (Doc, 50/50), PA (MCG, 50/50), GC (Car, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50)

Western Bulldogs: Car (Doc, L), Gee (KP, 50/50), Syd (SCG, L), Mel (Doc, 50/50), Ade (AO, W), NM (Doc, W), GWS (ES, 50/50)

Gold Coast: PA (Car, 50/50), GWS (SS, 50/50), Bri (Car, 50/50), WC (PS, W), Ess (Doc, 50/50), Mel (Car, 50/50), Ric (MCG, W)

Hawthorne: Fre (YP, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50), Ade (AO, W), GWS (Man, 50/50), Car (MCG, 50/50), Ric (MCG, W), NM (YP, W)

Index:

YP, York Park
PS, Perth Stadium
MCG, Melbourne Cricket Ground
SS, Sydney Showgrounds
Doc, Docklands
G, Gabba
KP, Kardinia Park
BO, Bellerive Oval
Car, Cararra (GC)
AO, Adelaide Oval
Man, Manuka (Canberra)
ES, Eureka Stadium (Ballarat)

My take. The bolded are my predictions for the 50/50s:

Fremantle: Haw (YP, 50/50 - W), Mel (PS, W), WC (PS, W), Ess (MCG, 50/50 - L), Gee (PS, 50/50 - W), GWS (SS, 50/50 L), PA (PS, 50/50 - W) - Prediction - Fremantle finish 15-7-1.

Essendon: Mel (MCG, 50/50 - L), Ade (Doc, W), StK (Doc, 50/50 - W), Fre (MCG, 50/50 - W), GC (Doc, W), Syd (Doc, 50/50 - L), Bri (G, L) - Prediction - Essendon finish 14-8-1.

Geelong: Col (MCG, 50/50 - W), WB (KP, W), NM (BO, W), Ade (KP, W), Fre (PS, 50/50 - L), StK (Doc, W), WC (KP, W) - Prediction - Geelong finish 16-6.

Port Adelaide: GC (Car, 50/50 - W), Ric (AO, W), Car (Doc, L), Syd (AO, 50/50 - L), Mel (MCG, 50/50 - L), Ade (AO, 50/50 W), Fre (PS, 50/50 - L) - Prediction - Port finish 13-10.

Brisbane: WC (PS, W), Syd (G, 50/50 - L), GC (Car, 50/50 - W), StK (Doc, W), GWS (G, 50/50 - W), Col (MCG, 50/50 - W), Ess (G, 50/50 - W) - Prediction - Brisbane finish 15-7-1.

Greater Western Sydney: Ric (MCG, W), GC (SS, W), Mel (MCG (50/50 - L), Haw (Man, W), Bri (G, 50/50 - L), Fre (SS, 50/50 - W), WB (ES, 50/50 - L) - Prediction GWS finish 13-10.

Collingwood (all MCG): Gee (50/50 - L), Haw (50/50 - W), Ric (W), Car (50-50 - L), Syd (L), Bri (50/50 - L), Mel (50/50 - W) - Prediction - Collingwood finish 11-10-2.

Melbourne: Ess (MCG, 50/50 - W), Fre (PS, 50/50 - L), GWS (MCG, 50/50 - W), WB (Doc, 50/50 - L), PA (MCG, 50/50 - W), GC (Car, 50/50 - W), Col (MCG, 50/50 - L) - Prediction - Melbourne finish 13-10.

Western Bulldogs: Car (Doc, L), Gee (KP, L), Syd (SCG, L), Mel (Doc, 50/50 - W), Ade (AO, W), NM (Doc, W), GWS (ES, 50/50 - W) - Prediction - Bulldogs finish 12-11.

Gold Coast: PA (Car, 50/50 - L), GWS (SS, L), Bri (Car, 50/50 - L), WC (PS, W), Ess (Doc, 50/50 - L), Mel (Car, 50/50 - L), Ric (MCG, 50/50 - W) - Prediction - Gold Coast finish 10-13.

Hawthorn: Fre (YP, 50/50 - L), Col (MCG, 50/50 - L), Ade (AO, 50/50 - W), GWS (Man, L), Car (MCG, L), Ric (MCG, W), NM (YP, W) - Prediction - Hawthorn finish 11-12.

The ladder based on this (on current percentage) is:

1. Sydney
2. Carlton
3. Geelong
4. Brisbane
5. Fremantle
6. Essendon
7. GWS
8. Port
-------------
9. Melbourne
10. Bulldogs
11. Collingwood
12. Hawthorn
13. Gold Coast

It means we'd have an EF vs GWS at the MCG and play the loser of Carl/Geel. Seems about right to me and I don't mind that, although I hope we can finish top 4. Percentage will come back to bite us as we're competing with Brisbane and Fremantle.

 

[fairbump_playon]

However it all pans out I really want to play Carlton in our first final

They would have everything to lose