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Brownlow Medallist
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- Nov 22, 2012
- 12,881
- 16,809
- AFL Club
- Essendon
I can get us as low at 11th in two rounds if the results fall the right (wrong) way
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The Dockers have only lost two of their last ten games. They were blown out of the water in one of those losses - an away game. They then 'grew up', as Dimma would put it, and beat Sydney away. I don't think they're just going to drop off at all.We are a lock for finals and now hunting a top 4 spot.
In the coming 5 weeks we have the Demons without Gawn, Crows without Rankine, then Saints, Dockers & Suns all in Victoria. We will start favorite in all of those games…
Then we have Sydney at Marvel - the Swans are starting to look not so invincible so we are a huge chance here if we bring our A game.
Last game is Brisbane in Brisbane and I’m never confident playing the Lions on their home turf - but it will be a good test leading into the finals.
I feel like the Cats will make a strong run now and Dockers will drop off a little meaning we can snare a top four spot if we win the games we should in our relatively easy run home...
We aren't a lock. You said the same thing this time last year. We should make finals but we aren't a lock. We're a lock when it becomes mathematically impossible for us to miss and only then.We are a lock for finals and now hunting a top 4 spot.
In the coming 5 weeks we have the Demons without Gawn, Crows without Rankine, then Saints, Dockers & Suns all in Victoria. We will start favorite in all of those games…
Then we have Sydney at Marvel - the Swans are starting to look not so invincible so we are a huge chance here if we bring our A game.
Last game is Brisbane in Brisbane and I’m never confident playing the Lions on their home turf - but it will be a good test leading into the finals.
I feel like the Cats will make a strong run now and Dockers will drop off a little meaning we can snare a top four spot if we win the games we should in our relatively easy run home...
We aren't a lock. You said the same thing this time last year. We should make finals but we aren't a lock. We're a lock when it becomes mathematically impossible for us to miss and only then.
We aren't a lock. You said the same thing this time last year. We should make finals but we aren't a lock. We're a lock when it becomes mathematically impossible for us to miss and only then.
In that it's even more open? Yep. Last year we had two games we were very likely to win (NM/WC), three 50/50's (WB, Syd, GWS) and two games we were likely to lose (Gee, Col). This year we have two games we're very likely to win (Ade, StK), four 50/50's (Mel, Fre, GC, Bri) and one game we're likely to lose (Syd).Very different this year to last year Ethan...
The remaining 7 games for 3rd to 13th (nobody really out of it yet):
Fremantle: Haw (YP, W), Mel (PS, 50/50), WC (PS, W), Ess (MCG, 50/50), Gee (PS, 50/50), GWS (SS, 50/50), PA (PS, 50/50)
Essendon: Mel (MCG, 50/50), Ade (Doc, W), StK (Doc, W), Fre (MCG, 50/50), GC (Doc, 50/50), Syd (Doc, L), Bri (G, 50/50)
Geelong: Col (MCG, 50/50), WB (KP, 50/50), NM (BO, W), Ade (KP, W), Fre (PS, 50/50), StK (Doc, W), WC (KP, W)
Port Adelaide: GC (Car, 50/50), Ric (AO, W), Car (Doc, L), Syd (AO, L), Mel (MCG, 50/50), Ade (AO, 50/50), Fre (PS, 50/50)
Brisbane: WC (PS, W), Syd (G, L), GC (Car, 50/50), StK (Doc, W), GWS (G, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50), Ess (G, 50/50)
Greater Western Sydney: Ric (MCG, W), GC (SS, 50/50), Mel (MCG (50/50), Haw (Man, 50/50), Bri (G, 50/50), Fre (SS, 50/50), WB (ES, 50/50)
Collingwood (all MCG): Gee (50/50), Haw (50/50), Ric (50/50), Car (L), Syd (L), Bro (50/50), Mel (50/50)
Melbourne: Ess (MCG, 50/50), Fre (PS, 50/50), GWS (MCG, 50/50), WB (Doc, 50/50), PA (MCG, 50/50), GC (Car, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50)
Western Bulldogs: Car (Doc, L), Gee (KP, 50/50), Syd (SCG, L), Mel (Doc, 50/50), Ade (AO, W), NM (Doc, W), GWS (ES, 50/50)
Gold Coast: PA (Car, 50/50), GWS (SS, 50/50), Bri (Car, 50/50), WC (PS, W), Ess (Doc, 50/50), Mel (Car, 50/50), Ric (MCG, W)
Hawthorne: Fre (YP, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50), Ade (AO, W), GWS (Man, 50/50), Car (MCG, 50/50), Ric (MCG, W), NM (YP, W)
Index:
YP, York Park
PS, Perth Stadium
MCG, Melbourne Cricket Ground
SS, Sydney Showgrounds
Doc, Docklands
G, Gabba
KP, Kardinia Park
BO, Bellerive Oval
Car, Cararra (GC)
AO, Adelaide Oval
Man, Manuka (Canberra)
ES, Eureka Stadium (Ballarat)
In that it's even more open? Yep. Last year we had two games we were very likely to win (NM/WC), three 50/50's (WB, Syd, GWS) and two games we were likely to lose (Gee, Col). This year we have two games we're very likely to win (Ade, StK), four 50/50's (Mel, Fre, GC, Bri) and one game we're likely to lose (Syd).
We were in a very similar position in terms of how far in the 8 we were too!
I was gonna tell you to go outside but to be fair it’s miserable out thereThe remaining 7 games for 3rd to 13th (nobody really out of it yet):
Fremantle: Haw (YP, 50/50), Mel (PS, 50/50), WC (PS, W), Ess (MCG, 50/50), Gee (PS, 50/50), GWS (SS, 50/50), PA (PS, 50/50)
Essendon: Mel (MCG, 50/50), Ade (Doc, W), StK (Doc, W), Fre (MCG, 50/50), GC (Doc, 50/50), Syd (Doc, L), Bri (G, 50/50)
Geelong: Col (MCG, 50/50), WB (KP, 50/50), NM (BO, W), Ade (KP, W), Fre (PS, 50/50), StK (Doc, W), WC (KP, W)
Port Adelaide: GC (Car, 50/50), Ric (AO, W), Car (Doc, L), Syd (AO, L), Mel (MCG, 50/50), Ade (AO, 50/50), Fre (PS, 50/50)
Brisbane: WC (PS, W), Syd (G, L), GC (Car, 50/50), StK (Doc, W), GWS (G, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50), Ess (G, 50/50)
Greater Western Sydney: Ric (MCG, W), GC (SS, 50/50), Mel (MCG (50/50), Haw (Man, 50/50), Bri (G, 50/50), Fre (SS, 50/50), WB (ES, 50/50)
Collingwood (all MCG): Gee (50/50), Haw (50/50), Ric (50/50), Car (L), Syd (L), Bro (50/50), Mel (50/50)
Melbourne: Ess (MCG, 50/50), Fre (PS, 50/50), GWS (MCG, 50/50), WB (Doc, 50/50), PA (MCG, 50/50), GC (Car, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50)
Western Bulldogs: Car (Doc, L), Gee (KP, 50/50), Syd (SCG, L), Mel (Doc, 50/50), Ade (AO, W), NM (Doc, W), GWS (ES, 50/50)
Gold Coast: PA (Car, 50/50), GWS (SS, 50/50), Bri (Car, 50/50), WC (PS, W), Ess (Doc, 50/50), Mel (Car, 50/50), Ric (MCG, W)
Hawthorne: Fre (YP, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50), Ade (AO, W), GWS (Man, 50/50), Car (MCG, 50/50), Ric (MCG, W), NM (YP, W)
Index:
YP, York Park
PS, Perth Stadium
MCG, Melbourne Cricket Ground
SS, Sydney Showgrounds
Doc, Docklands
G, Gabba
KP, Kardinia Park
BO, Bellerive Oval
Car, Cararra (GC)
AO, Adelaide Oval
Man, Manuka (Canberra)
ES, Eureka Stadium (Ballarat)
Melbourne's run home sucks. No Trac. No Gawn. They're not playing finals.The remaining 7 games for 3rd to 13th (nobody really out of it yet):
Fremantle: Haw (YP, 50/50), Mel (PS, 50/50), WC (PS, W), Ess (MCG, 50/50), Gee (PS, 50/50), GWS (SS, 50/50), PA (PS, 50/50)
Essendon: Mel (MCG, 50/50), Ade (Doc, W), StK (Doc, W), Fre (MCG, 50/50), GC (Doc, 50/50), Syd (Doc, L), Bri (G, 50/50)
Geelong: Col (MCG, 50/50), WB (KP, 50/50), NM (BO, W), Ade (KP, W), Fre (PS, 50/50), StK (Doc, W), WC (KP, W)
Port Adelaide: GC (Car, 50/50), Ric (AO, W), Car (Doc, L), Syd (AO, L), Mel (MCG, 50/50), Ade (AO, 50/50), Fre (PS, 50/50)
Brisbane: WC (PS, W), Syd (G, L), GC (Car, 50/50), StK (Doc, W), GWS (G, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50), Ess (G, 50/50)
Greater Western Sydney: Ric (MCG, W), GC (SS, 50/50), Mel (MCG (50/50), Haw (Man, 50/50), Bri (G, 50/50), Fre (SS, 50/50), WB (ES, 50/50)
Collingwood (all MCG): Gee (50/50), Haw (50/50), Ric (50/50), Car (L), Syd (L), Bro (50/50), Mel (50/50)
Melbourne: Ess (MCG, 50/50), Fre (PS, 50/50), GWS (MCG, 50/50), WB (Doc, 50/50), PA (MCG, 50/50), GC (Car, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50)
Western Bulldogs: Car (Doc, L), Gee (KP, 50/50), Syd (SCG, L), Mel (Doc, 50/50), Ade (AO, W), NM (Doc, W), GWS (ES, 50/50)
Gold Coast: PA (Car, 50/50), GWS (SS, 50/50), Bri (Car, 50/50), WC (PS, W), Ess (Doc, 50/50), Mel (Car, 50/50), Ric (MCG, W)
Hawthorne: Fre (YP, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50), Ade (AO, W), GWS (Man, 50/50), Car (MCG, 50/50), Ric (MCG, W), NM (YP, W)
Index:
YP, York Park
PS, Perth Stadium
MCG, Melbourne Cricket Ground
SS, Sydney Showgrounds
Doc, Docklands
G, Gabba
KP, Kardinia Park
BO, Bellerive Oval
Car, Cararra (GC)
AO, Adelaide Oval
Man, Manuka (Canberra)
ES, Eureka Stadium (Ballarat)
I think the biggest thing for me is the mentality shift. I did not believe we had changed tbh, still too much of the same old list that is happy to be there and the first quarter against pies was proof positive for me to carry on believing the collapse was coming.
Take out three minutes of whoever was on Crisp having an allergic reaction to being with cooee of him and the quarter wasn't as bad as others we've played. We just let him off the hook for some reason.
I think the response in the nest three quarters shows more who/what the team has become than what occurred in the first.
Add to that the two goals directly from unforced errors by ridley and perkins.Take out three minutes of whoever was on Crisp having an allergic reaction to being with cooee of him and the quarter wasn't as bad as others we've played. We just let him off the hook for some reason.
I think the response in the nest three quarters shows more who/what the team has become than what occurred in the first.
My take. The bolded are my predictions for the 50/50s:The remaining 7 games for 3rd to 13th (nobody really out of it yet):
Fremantle: Haw (YP, 50/50), Mel (PS, 50/50), WC (PS, W), Ess (MCG, 50/50), Gee (PS, 50/50), GWS (SS, 50/50), PA (PS, 50/50)
Essendon: Mel (MCG, 50/50), Ade (Doc, W), StK (Doc, W), Fre (MCG, 50/50), GC (Doc, 50/50), Syd (Doc, L), Bri (G, 50/50)
Geelong: Col (MCG, 50/50), WB (KP, 50/50), NM (BO, W), Ade (KP, W), Fre (PS, 50/50), StK (Doc, W), WC (KP, W)
Port Adelaide: GC (Car, 50/50), Ric (AO, W), Car (Doc, L), Syd (AO, L), Mel (MCG, 50/50), Ade (AO, 50/50), Fre (PS, 50/50)
Brisbane: WC (PS, W), Syd (G, L), GC (Car, 50/50), StK (Doc, W), GWS (G, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50), Ess (G, 50/50)
Greater Western Sydney: Ric (MCG, W), GC (SS, 50/50), Mel (MCG (50/50), Haw (Man, 50/50), Bri (G, 50/50), Fre (SS, 50/50), WB (ES, 50/50)
Collingwood (all MCG): Gee (50/50), Haw (50/50), Ric (50/50), Car (L), Syd (L), Bro (50/50), Mel (50/50)
Melbourne: Ess (MCG, 50/50), Fre (PS, 50/50), GWS (MCG, 50/50), WB (Doc, 50/50), PA (MCG, 50/50), GC (Car, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50)
Western Bulldogs: Car (Doc, L), Gee (KP, 50/50), Syd (SCG, L), Mel (Doc, 50/50), Ade (AO, W), NM (Doc, W), GWS (ES, 50/50)
Gold Coast: PA (Car, 50/50), GWS (SS, 50/50), Bri (Car, 50/50), WC (PS, W), Ess (Doc, 50/50), Mel (Car, 50/50), Ric (MCG, W)
Hawthorne: Fre (YP, 50/50), Col (MCG, 50/50), Ade (AO, W), GWS (Man, 50/50), Car (MCG, 50/50), Ric (MCG, W), NM (YP, W)
Index:
YP, York Park
PS, Perth Stadium
MCG, Melbourne Cricket Ground
SS, Sydney Showgrounds
Doc, Docklands
G, Gabba
KP, Kardinia Park
BO, Bellerive Oval
Car, Cararra (GC)
AO, Adelaide Oval
Man, Manuka (Canberra)
ES, Eureka Stadium (Ballarat)