The Syrian War

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I have no time for Ba'ath or Arabic Nationalism, but I loathe Islamic fundamentalism even more.

I just feel for the normal people stuck in the middle of those two crazy ideologies.
Ba'athism is the lesser of two evils in this instance.

Either way it's a bad situation. The sectarian tensions are not going away even if the war is coming to an end.
 
I have no time for Ba'ath or Arabic Nationalism, but I loathe Islamic fundamentalism even more.

I just feel for the normal people stuck in the middle of those two crazy ideologies.

At least Ba'athism isn't predicated on genocide and enslavement.
 

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Ba'athism is the lesser of two evils in this instance.

Either way it's a bad situation. The sectarian tensions are not going away even if the war is coming to an end.

If Saudi and Iran are making nice, it will dampen them down a great deal.
 
Assad's rule is just about over.

But who are the ones taking over? Hayat Tahrir al-Sham are the fundamentalist jihadis out of Idlib Provice who want to form an Islamic government similar in vein to the Taliban. They used to be an al Qaeda affiliate until they broke away.

Assad, for all his murderous faults was at least nominally secular. I would be very careful about celebrating the fall of Assad considering what will replace him.
 
But who are the ones taking over? Hayat Tahrir al-Sham are the fundamentalist jihadis out of Idlib Provice who want to form an Islamic government similar in vein to the Taliban. They used to be an al Qaeda affiliate until they broke away.

Assad, for all his murderous faults was at least nominally secular. I would be very careful about celebrating the fall of Assad considering what will replace him.
Supposedly HTS has been claiming they'll support minority rights. Now that's probably a lie to gain some international legitimacy, but they are being speculated to do this:

 

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We've seen this script before with Iraq and Libya.

No doubt Assad was a brutal dictator, but I don't get the impression his successor(s) will be any better.

Once Russia and Iran became preoccupied with other conflicts, the Assad regime's days were numbered.
The question is are HTS going to engage in a peace process to grant some form of democracy to Syria, or are they going to attempt to seize outright power. And what will Russia and Iran do with their ally having apparently disintegrated as a force on the ground - will they play spoiler and try to prevent a solution emerging?
 
We've seen this script before with Iraq and Libya.

No doubt Assad was a brutal dictator, but I don't get the impression his successor(s) will be any better.

Once Russia and Iran became preoccupied with other conflicts, the Assad regime's days were numbered.
That's the problem any decent unifying figure has been long since killed by Assad, now it is down to whomever has the most guns and even more brutality

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Obviously there is much to be uncovered, but when seeking to clarify political reality one should always go back to the primordial principle "cui bono"?
...and of course, it is the US and Israel.

Here is what Jake Sullivan said:
"We don’t cry over the fact that the Assad government, backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, are facing certain kinds of pressure. We have seen activity in Syria coming off of all the other things we have seen in the Middle East and Ukraine and elsewhere, that is something that is the natural result of those adversaries ending up in a weaker strategic position.”

The US and NATO powers began their campaign for regime change in Syria in 2011 with their support for the Syrian opposition to Assad.

Now, with Hezbollah drastically weakened, and Russia absorbed by the war in Ukraine, their objective has been achieved.
 
The question is are HTS going to engage in a peace process to grant some form of democracy to Syria, or are they going to attempt to seize outright power. And what will Russia and Iran do with their ally having apparently disintegrated as a force on the ground - will they play spoiler and try to prevent a solution emerging?
I think you are forgetting something...US troops occupy territory in Syria. It is estimated that there are 900 there, with the stated purpose (under Trump I) of stealing Syrian oil.

It is not just a question of what Iran and Russia will do, but far more so what the US (and their sidekick Israel) will do.

The US proxy force, the Syrian Democratic Forces, are involved in the current offensive which has overthrown Assad.

The US has issued a statement categorically denying its involvement in the offensive. This statement is not worth the audio bytes which it took to announce.
 
That's the problem any decent unifying figure has been long since killed by Assad, now it is down to whomever has the most guns and even more brutality

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Jolani seems like a reasonable chap

Turned more moderate recently and is well educated and hopefully pragmatic in his approach

Russia has seemingly abandoned Syria ... so let us see what happens

Iran leadership must be getting nervous
 

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The Syrian War

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