The Top 4 challengers

[Crows4Eva]

It's only week one, so theres no point getting too far ahead of ourselves yet, but having said that, there were a few things.

St. Kilda - Looked ok, hard to judge exactly where they are since they played against Geelong, who they have had several close matches with in the last year or so, but they definately look to betop 4 material again this year.

Geelong - I might be just me, but they looked a bit slow this week, might be too early to judge and should wait until they play another game before making any bold statements, but without Ablett in the midfield and all their champions a year older, they seemed to lack the spark and run that they've had in previous years.

Port - Some promising signs in the third quarter, having very few genuine forwards fit and in form is going to make winning games hard in the near future.

Collingwood - I hate to admit it, but they looked awesome, one bad quarter for the game, if they hadn't let that happen, it wouldhave been even uglier.

Adelaide - Less said about the first half the better, slow, basic skill errors all over the place, but really pulled it together after half time, Tex and Danger tore it up in the third quarter, very good signs for the future.

Hawthorn - Basically the opposite of Adelaide, awesome first half, terrible second half.

West Coast - Cox is back! Nuff said

North - Look way too reliant on Harvey and Rawlings IMO, Harvey had a shocker and they struggled as a result.

Can't comment on the other games, I didn't see them

 

[citizen-erased]

And so do 7 other teams. FFS it's round one. You would think we were on the eve of finals listening to the crap coming out of Bombers fans the last 24 hours.

im really not talking the dons up in this thread.
In fact, im waiting to see how we travel this week and how we go against the likes of adelaide, carlton and collingwood before i make a call on us.

This was more about the fact that most experts have locked the cats, dogs and saints into the 4 with the pies with the hawks, swans, dockers, blues and crows as possible challengers within the 8.
Based on the weekends performance, only one of those teams looked like a top 8 side.

Cats looked slower and less strong than they have in the past
Saints look to be much the same but also predictable and not making the most of their side.
Blues were not that impressive in the win against the tigers
Doggies were just impotent. fwd line couldnt make most of limited opportunities.
Hawks fell away when challenged.
Crows looked to need the crowd to get them up

Injuries at this point of season arent much of an excuse either
Pies were missing their captain and backline general, a premiership fullback, and only limited game time into Didak and were missing Davis.

Dons were missing a key backman, one of our best tackling mids and took an underdone ruckman in who went close to best on ground.

 

[Roadie]

im really not talking the dons up in this thread.

...

Dons were missing a key backman, one of our best tackling mids and took an underdone ruckman in who went close to best on ground.

Yeah okay.

 

[ok.crows]

Adelaide - Less said about the first half the better, slow, basic skill errors all over the place, but really pulled it together after half time, Tex and Danger tore it up in the third quarter, very good signs for the future.

Hawthorn - Basically the opposite of Adelaide, awesome first half, terrible second half.

Hawks fell away when challenged.
Crows looked to need the crowd to get them up

Simpler explanations which don't involve magical skills improvements/disappearances:
1. Being round 1, the Crows were horribly rusty to start with but got their act together after half time
2. The Hawks tired out something chronic
3. By half time the Crows worked out and were able to implement a method to defeat Hawks forward press gameplan

 

[davis_756]

The top 4 should be interesting this year.

Collingwood - Locked in, only side that looks the same as last year (Neutral)

St Kilda - Can't see them doing much this year, looks like they can't even score anymore if reiwoldt is shut down so they will fail to kick winning scores against top 8 sides. (Slide)

Geelong - Was a great side with an elite midfield/defense, now the midfield is back in the pack and the defense is getting old. I really do struggle to see how they will score goals this year, their best forward can't hit the side of barn door. (Slide)

Doggies - Looked like a flogged horse on the weekend, missing a few players so they will improve on that showing but its hard to see upside on 2010. It may be hard to remember but the dogs were 6th on the table for most of the year and only fell into the top 4 when fremantle/carlton fell to pieces at the end of the year. (Slide)

Fremantle - I think they struggled with Brisbane last year as well but no great signs to say they have improved this year, they did play patches of top 4 worth stuff last year but the question is how consistent can they be.
(Still unknown)

Sydney - Hard to tell against Melbourne who were tipped to improve this year, a draw with last years 12th best side though shows little to no improvement. (Neutral)

Hawthorn - We keep waiting for these guys to return to their 08 form, possibly not going to ever happen. Losing to Adelaide was a bad start and I can't see Hodge lifting them to a top 4 spot. (Neutral)

Carlton - Turned a 15 goal win into an almost thriller finish, defense still looks weak, Forwards as well looked pretty poor but that was probably due to not having any KPP players after the 1st term. The 1st two weeks won't tell you anything about carlton this year, round 3 will show up any faults. (Neutral)

Midfield dominance was something to take note of all be it against Richmond. There isn't many sides playing 2 actual ruckman this year and it could be a massive advantage against some of the better sides. Kruezer back will be a massive boost especially up forward.

--------

As for the rest:

- North lost to the spooners which almost rules them out for challenging for the 8, should be winning those games as a finals hopeful.

- Port, probably further off the pace, certainly not top 8 material based on the thrashing they got from collingwood.

- Adelaide are looking pretty good, on the up and will probably replace someone in the 8

- Melbourne, competitive against Sydney so we will have to wait and see if Melbourne has improved or Sydney slid.

- Essendon, preseason form has them on the up and like Carlton play 2 actual ruckmen. I think though the win over the doggies shows more about the dogs slipping away then anything, should be close to a top 8 spot at least this year though.



Basically Collingwood is a lock and the other 3 spots will go to whoever stands up, right now 2nd 3rd and 4th are up for grabs for anyone down to 12th on the ladder.

 

[citizen-erased]

The top 4 should be interesting this year.

Collingwood - Locked in, only side that looks the same as last year (Neutral)

St Kilda - Can't see them doing much this year, looks like they can't even score anymore if reiwoldt is shut down so they will fail to kick winning scores against top 8 sides. (Slide)

Geelong - Was a great side with an elite midfield/defense, now the midfield is back in the pack and the defense is getting old. I really do struggle to see how they will score goals this year, their best forward can't hit the side of barn door. (Slide)

Doggies - Looked like a flogged horse on the weekend, missing a few players so they will improve on that showing but its hard to see upside on 2010. It may be hard to remember but the dogs were 6th on the table for most of the year and only fell into the top 4 when fremantle/carlton fell to pieces at the end of the year. (Slide)

Fremantle - I think they struggled with Brisbane last year as well but no great signs to say they have improved this year, they did play patches of top 4 worth stuff last year but the question is how consistent can they be.
(Still unknown)

Sydney - Hard to tell against Melbourne who were tipped to improve this year, a draw with last years 12th best side though shows little to no improvement. (Neutral)

Hawthorn - We keep waiting for these guys to return to their 08 form, possibly not going to ever happen. Losing to Adelaide was a bad start and I can't see Hodge lifting them to a top 4 spot. (Neutral)

Carlton - Turned a 15 goal win into an almost thriller finish, defense still looks weak, Forwards as well looked pretty poor but that was probably due to not having any KPP players after the 1st term. The 1st two weeks won't tell you anything about carlton this year, round 3 will show up any faults. (Neutral)

Midfield dominance was something to take note of all be it against Richmond. There isn't many sides playing 2 actual ruckman this year and it could be a massive advantage against some of the better sides. Kruezer back will be a massive boost especially up forward.

--------

As for the rest:

- North lost to the spooners which almost rules them out for challenging for the 8, should be winning those games as a finals hopeful.

- Port, probably further off the pace, certainly not top 8 material based on the thrashing they got from collingwood.

- Adelaide are looking pretty good, on the up and will probably replace someone in the 8

- Melbourne, competitive against Sydney so we will have to wait and see if Melbourne has improved or Sydney slid.

- Essendon, preseason form has them on the up and like Carlton play 2 actual ruckmen. I think though the win over the doggies shows more about the dogs slipping away then anything, should be close to a top 8 spot at least this year though.



Basically Collingwood is a lock and the other 3 spots will go to whoever stands up, right now 2nd 3rd and 4th are up for grabs for anyone down to 12th on the ladder.

Will be interesting to see how the blues go after rd 2.
Pies, bogey game against the dons, crows in melbourne.
Hopefully Hendo and Kruezer are up and Waite is alright.
Some good finds down back in Duigan and Laidler and hopefully Watson can break in quickly. Would like to see what the carlton midfield can do with a number of forward options and a stronger defence.

 

[winty]

If we had a thread called "Make rash judgements based on Round 1 alone", then you could almost safely say it's Collingwood, then daylight.

But as we should all know, it's only Round 1. You generally don't get a true idea of what's happening until almost Round 10. I mean, Hawthorn lost 7 of their first 8 last year didn't they? They still almost scraped into Top 4.

Collingwood under Tony Shaw won their first 5 one year and then won or almost won the spoon. Look at Brisbane last year.

Very early days, but still the signs go the other way too. Last year in 'only Round 1' we announced ourselves by destroying the Bulldogs too. So you never know.

Geelong won their first 5 in 1999 and went on to lose their next nine too.

In Round 1 last year Geelong were pretty much full strength against Essendon and were trailing at 3/4 time before we ran away with a 32 point win. Later in the season Geelong played Essendon again, were missing half a dozen players, and won by 71.

Just because teams are scratchy in Round 1 doesn't mean they're going to be that way for the entire year, much the same as a team who is on fire in March can go missing come July.

 

[HighettBomber]

The obvious 4 are the tems that finished top 4 last year. Collingwood will obviously be there, the other three are not certainties though. I would say Adelaide, Hawthorn and Freo are the next most likely, with the Dons looking to add ourselves to that list if we can play like we did yesterday consitently. Swans may surprise also.

Carlton have an awsome midfield but an awful backline and non existent forwardline, they will have some good wins but i can't see them doing it consistently with so many weaknesses. Melbourne have a great backline and improving midfield with a lot of talent, but have no key forwards, I think this also excludes them from improving sufficiently to challenge for a top 4 spot.

Shapes as an interesting season.

 

[That's deliberate]

Simpler explanations which don't involve magical skills improvements/disappearances:
1. Being round 1, the Crows were horribly rusty to start with but got their act together after half time
2. The Hawks tired out something chronic
3. By half time the Crows worked out and were able to implement a method to defeat Hawks forward press gameplan

Or maybe the game would have been iced 2 minutes into the 3rd qtr had Ruffy and Buddy not hit the post with 2 shots on goal within 2 minutes. :

Luck had alot to do with your win. Good luck to you.

 

[ok.crows]

Or maybe the game would have been iced 2 minutes into the 3rd qtr had Ruffy and Buddy not hit the post with 2 shots on goal within 2 minutes. :

Luck had alot to do with your win. Good luck to you.

Clearly I should have stipulated explanations of the game that not only didn't involve magical skills improvements/disappearances, but also weren't fanciful ifs/buts/maybes.

 

[Furn]

The top 4 should be interesting this year.

Collingwood - Locked in, only side that looks the same as last year (Neutral)

St Kilda - Can't see them doing much this year, looks like they can't even score anymore if reiwoldt is shut down so they will fail to kick winning scores against top 8 sides. (Slide)

Geelong - Was a great side with an elite midfield/defense, now the midfield is back in the pack and the defense is getting old. I really do struggle to see how they will score goals this year, their best forward can't hit the side of barn door. (Slide)

Doggies - Looked like a flogged horse on the weekend, missing a few players so they will improve on that showing but its hard to see upside on 2010. It may be hard to remember but the dogs were 6th on the table for most of the year and only fell into the top 4 when fremantle/carlton fell to pieces at the end of the year. (Slide)

Fremantle - I think they struggled with Brisbane last year as well but no great signs to say they have improved this year, they did play patches of top 4 worth stuff last year but the question is how consistent can they be.
(Still unknown)

Sydney - Hard to tell against Melbourne who were tipped to improve this year, a draw with last years 12th best side though shows little to no improvement. (Neutral)

Hawthorn - We keep waiting for these guys to return to their 08 form, possibly not going to ever happen. Losing to Adelaide was a bad start and I can't see Hodge lifting them to a top 4 spot. (Neutral)

Carlton - Turned a 15 goal win into an almost thriller finish, defense still looks weak, Forwards as well looked pretty poor but that was probably due to not having any KPP players after the 1st term. The 1st two weeks won't tell you anything about carlton this year, round 3 will show up any faults. (Neutral)

Midfield dominance was something to take note of all be it against Richmond. There isn't many sides playing 2 actual ruckman this year and it could be a massive advantage against some of the better sides. Kruezer back will be a massive boost especially up forward.

--------

As for the rest:

- North lost to the spooners which almost rules them out for challenging for the 8, should be winning those games as a finals hopeful.

- Port, probably further off the pace, certainly not top 8 material based on the thrashing they got from collingwood.

- Adelaide are looking pretty good, on the up and will probably replace someone in the 8

- Melbourne, competitive against Sydney so we will have to wait and see if Melbourne has improved or Sydney slid.

- Essendon, preseason form has them on the up and like Carlton play 2 actual ruckmen. I think though the win over the doggies shows more about the dogs slipping away then anything, should be close to a top 8 spot at least this year though.



Basically Collingwood is a lock and the other 3 spots will go to whoever stands up, right now 2nd 3rd and 4th are up for grabs for anyone down to 12th on the ladder.

How can 3 of top 4 slide without anyone going up?

 

[davis_756]

How can 3 of top 4 slide without anyone going up?

I never posted anything to do with ladder positions just where sides were comparative to last year.

At the moment the way those 3 are sliding its Collingwood Gap Gap (Pack of 6), it depends who sticks their heads up at the right time will get top 4.

Id have Collingwood, Fremantle, Adelaide, Carlton top 4 at the minute, I know its bias with my side because we have shown no improvement but I can't see anyone else stepping up to the plate.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

I'm not as shattered as some Hawks about the loss. DIsappointed but not shattered.

I had Adelaide for the top 4 a few months ago. They are a very good side and very tough to beat at home. Not to mention Hawthorn's interstate form which is deplorable since 2008.

A horror pre-season last year crippled Adelaide for the season and they are a lot better than where they finished. They jsut dont get the attention because they are not a vic club.

I had Coll, us, the Crows and the Dogs in the top 4 in no order. Saints and Cats will have the class to push but may fall short.

After 1 week, my opinion is the same.. Dogs will come good, there is too many peak-age skilled players to not. Losses like theirs to Essendon can define a season and galvanise a good team.

Essendon are peaking far too early, wont make the 8.

 

[Slattery_20]

I grouped the 4 worst teams from 2010.

Bris also smacked the doggies early last year, WCE smacked the dogs early in 2009 and the Dogs still made top 4 both years. Sure the coach wants to win but winning in Septemeber is more important for the Dogs than winning round 1.

Do you think in 2011 Essendon will be better than the Dogs? Let me save you the trouble of thinking about it - no they won't.

Wow, "ignore any results, top 4 team likely to finish better than bottom 4 team". Got a live one here. Really thought long and hard here.

Got any tatts numbers for me?

 

[Kings Army]

Wow, "ignore any results, top 4 team likely to finish better than bottom 4 team". Got a live one here. Really thought long and hard here.

Got any tatts numbers for me?

No tatts numbers - just a permanent ban for you in 6 months time.

 

[Jesse Custer]

Essendon are peaking far too early, wont make the 8.

I reckon you're right. It will take a couple of seasons to get the balance right.

 

[bombermick]

Essendon is getting all of the attention but Adelaide have to a chance for the top 4, assuming other teams slide. Good ruck combo, two true power forwards, a good midfield and a good defense. What they lack is someone to crumb off Tipps and Tex and that's why they need Callinan back a.s.a.p.

 

[saint jack]

The Saints were disappointing, but I expect them to be around the mark this year. The team that showed a lot of promise is Adelaide. I think they will go a lot further than many think. Essendon are good and will be good, but may fall a bit short of the top 4. The Doggies did not impress at all, but we have to reserve judgement on a team that always gets rated highly by the fourth estate. Collingwood are a machine and it seems that this year everyone will be chasing them. Gee it was hard to write that sentence.

 

[captain peanut]

well the saints clearly will be vacating their top 4 spot in 2011. who is the no. 1 challenger in waiting? alot to like about the crows last week i thought. that game could end up being a great form reference with the hawks my tip to take the spot geel will be vacating

 

[macdaddio]

I will wait till tomorrows Hawks v Dee's game before i decide if the Hawks are contenders or Pretenders...

But atm no one will come close to the Pies....

 

[blitzer]

Aside from Collingwood nobody is looking genuine top 4 quality right now but it is early days. It feels that injuries are the only thing that can bring Collingwood back to the pack right now rather than there being another side that can rise up and genuinely challenge. I'm not normally a fan of just putting the previous years premiers as favourites automatically but its really really hard to see another genuine challenger right now.

At the moment i see Carlton as grabbing a top 4 spot, with the old top 4's from previous years being worse i think they will sneak in and grab one even though won't really be peaking until next year.

St.Kilda may be able to get it together and make top 4 with all their top end talent, even though they really are playing ordinary footy at the moment and i can't help but think that their gameplan is getting 'figured out'. The injury to Hayes really hurts.

Western Bulldogs may be able to get it together when their defenders all return in particular Brian Lake but im not confident.

Geelong - As the season wears on Geelong will miss Ablett more and more, they were already quite one-paced and losing a player with the brilliance of Ablett and his ability to set up the play not to mention the general aging of their list. Will struggle to make the 8 by the end of the season (not saying they won't but it won't be easy, 11/12 win team for mine this year).

Sides like Adelaide, Sydney, Hawthorn are all chances to step up and take spots, at least one will be top 4 i'd say.

Freo - Too many injuries early, would need to come home with a massive head full of steam, but generally when players miss significant weeks they struggle to get to their best, i just don't think this is the year for Freo.

Essendon - Nah, showing good footy at the moment but just making the 8 would be a good achievement for them, won't have the consistency to make the top 4 unless all the other contenders are even worse than i have judged them. Are likely to fade as the season wears on and have a tough draw.

 

[shintemaster]

Can't stand the Saints but it's a bit early. They weren't in the best form last season for the first 3rd or so from memory.

 

[Pie eyed]

Off the back of one one full round and a single game it's really a bit early to write off any side or anoint the Pies the "sole contender".
After round 2 last season the Pies had just squeezed a one point win out of Melbourne and went on to get beaten by St Kilda in round 3.

Way tooooooooooo early.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Losing Hayes will cost them. They cant afford any injuries and they are currently down two rucks and their best mid. Their older players are starting to show signs of wear and tear.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Off the back of one one full round and a single game it's really a bit early to write off any side or anoint the Pies the "sole contender".
After round 2 last season the Pies had just squeezed a one point win out of Melbourne and went on to get beaten by St Kilda in round 3.

Way tooooooooooo early.

Our Round 2 side was radically different to our finals side, though. We had no Dawes, Macaffer, Blair, Goldsack, N Brown etc in the line-up. We still had Lockyer, Fraser, Anthony , Davis, Medhurst etc. Do StKilda have the cattle to bring into the line-up that we had last year?