Recommitted Tim Kelly [requested a trade to West Coast]

[JackOutback]

And just what do you think it'll take? A future 3rd rounder?

No, the trade will probably be two first rounders, both late-ish because of WC’s position. Geelong will feel a bit stiff but he is out of contract and has nominated club. Talk of NN or Gov is laughable.

Kelly and McGovern value shouldnt be far apart. McGovern has what, 3 AA selections and is still at the top of his game. Arguably the best CHB in the game...

Disgregarding club need, in a vacuum, Kelly and McGovern should be very closely valued

Not sure how that makes them close. As you say, Gov is widely regarded as the best CHB in the league, has three AAs and KPPs carry a premium, regardless of whether he wins the Brownlow, most people wouldn’t say Kelly is the best mid in the AFL. And I think the poster wanted us to throw in our first

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

No, the trade will probably be two first rounders, both late-ish because of WC’s position. Geelong will feel a bit stiff but he is out of contract and has nominated club. Talk of NN or Gov is laughable.


Not sure how that makes them close. As you say, Gov is widely regarded as the best CHB in the league, has three AAs and KPPs carry a premium, regardless of whether he wins the Brownlow, most people wouldn’t say Kelly is the best mid in the AFL. And I think the poster wanted us to throw in our first

Both would be in the top 1% in their category though. Kelly would be worth around the highest these trades get done for (Judd is the exception) being two firsts with something coming back depending on the value of the firsts given. McGovern cant, and wouldnt go for much more. They would go for about the same in a vacuum

 

[Benny78]

No, the trade will probably be two first rounders, both late-ish because of WC’s position. Geelong will feel a bit stiff but he is out of contract and has nominated club. Talk of NN or Gov is laughable.


Not sure how that makes them close. As you say, Gov is widely regarded as the best CHB in the league, has three AAs and KPPs carry a premium, regardless of whether he wins the Brownlow, most people wouldn’t say Kelly is the best mid in the AFL. And I think the poster wanted us to throw in our first

Except Geelong don't have to accept the two first rounders. They don't havea gun to their head. They can refuse and Kelly will be forced to enter the draft where Gold Coast pick him up.

If you don't think they will pick him you're dreaming

 

[Scotland]

My god I've never seen a club overate their players so much. And underate Tim Kelly so much. Kelly is worth more individually than these mentioned players and is younger.

This is my new favourite post in the thread.

Is Kelly worth more than Grundy or just any WC players mentioned?

 

[Scotland]

Both would be in the top 1% in their category though. Kelly would be worth around the highest these trades get done for (Judd is the exception) being two firsts with something coming back depending on the value of the firsts given. McGovern cant, and wouldnt go for much more. They would go for about the same in a vaccum

What is the top 1% of midfielders? Each team starts with a centreman, rover, ruck rover and two wingmen as named. If you roll with the assumption that is any team's best 5 midfielders and there are 18 teams that's 90 players. The top 1% of 90 is 0.9 of a player. Teams field 2 or maybe 3 key defenders, so the top 1% isn't even half a player. It doesn't mean anything.

As a Freo fan I'm sure you are invested in what Brad Hill is worth. If were doing a captain's pick then I reckon most people would chose 25 year old Tim Kelly over 26 year old Brad Hill. But we aren't. One is out of contract and expressed a desire to be traded last year. One is the subject of trade rumours but has two years left to run on a contract. Circumstances push their trade values together. Lachie Weller went for more than Kelly is likely to. Head scratching in a vacuum but trades don't happen in a vacuum.

At 29 and injured again Naitanui's trade value is pretty low. McGovern has been in the AA side the last 3 years and will be in the mix again this year, plus re-signed last year to a long term deal on good money. Gold Coast could put a couple of their top 6 picks on the table last year and WC would have said no. You don't trade out gun key position players who don't want to leave.

 

[Frank Gallagher]

But ultimately lost because you couldn’t contain Jack Darling

Was actually our best 3 key defenders (Moore, Dunn, and some other dude.

This is my new favourite post in the thread.

Is Kelly worth more than Grundy or just any WC players mentioned?

Thread has evolved into the value of the Guvna, what's Kelly got to do with that?

 

[Scotland]

Except Geelong don't have to accept the two first rounders. They don't have a gun to their head. They can refuse and Kelly will be forced to enter the draft where Gold Coast pick him up.

If you don't think they will pick him you're dreaming

Geelong don't have to accept any trade, that is their prerogative.

If Geelong turn down WC's 2019 and 2020 first round picks and force Kelly into the draft they will be playing 3-4 home games a season and Docklands for quite some time...

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

What is the top 1% of midfielders? Each team starts with a centreman, rover, ruck rover and two wingmen as named. If you roll with the assumption that is any team's best 5 midfielders and there are 18 teams that's 90 players. The top 1% of 90 is 0.9 of a player. Teams field 2 or maybe 3 key defenders, so the top 1% isn't even half a player. It doesn't mean anything.

As a Freo fan I'm sure you are invested in what Brad Hill is worth. If were doing a captain's pick then I reckon most people would chose 25 year old Tim Kelly over 26 year old Brad Hill. But we aren't. One is out of contract and expressed a desire to be traded last year. One is the subject of trade rumours but has two years left to run on a contract. Circumstances push their trade values together. Lachie Weller went for more than Kelly is likely to. Head scratching in a vacuum but trades don't happen in a vacuum.

At 29 and injured again Naitanui's trade value is pretty low. McGovern has been in the AA side the last 3 years and will be in the mix again this year, plus re-signed last year to a long term deal on good money. Gold Coast could put a couple of their top 6 picks on the table last year and WC would have said no. You don't trade out gun key position players who don't want to leave.

I 100% agree with everything you said. Its also not applicable to my posts as I have said in a vacuum. People were dick measuring and it was stupid because both players in a vaccum would be worth about the same.

Under no circumstances would you trade McGovern. Trading him with a 1st is incredibly ignorant and stupid but both sides were saying their player is worth a lot more. Both were wrong IMO

 

[The 747]

I would be doing likewise, but we'll see how it plays out. Geelong haven't been in the position of having multiple first round picks, even if they aren't great ones. You could easily end up with 3 picks inside 20 this year or next depending on wants.

I can't think of any like for like replacements for Kelly but let's say you tried to get someone like Ollie Wines or Zac Merrett who are around the same age. You'd end up stuck trying to get the best you can for a player that wants to leave while trying to convince a club to let a player go that they don't have to. Horrible bargaining position.

We have been drafting well lately so my preference would be take those picks to the draft, anyone who wants out we should be looking to package up with one of our later picks to move up the draft order and maybe get 4 inside the top 30, depending on who we are talking about moving on. The only way to get those really high picks which we never has is to start losing a lot and that damages the culture of the club. 4 in the first and second rounds, with a priority on mids would be a good influx.

As far as replacing Kelly, our (faint) hope would be Nakia Cockatoo. Narkle perhaps if he starts to run both ways. Not because they are indigenous but because they are two players with (some) potential to play a similar role to Kelly.

 

[The 747]

This is typical Geelong . Give nothing . Demand everything .

I know this is in response to a Cats supporter being OTT but this is an incredibly misinformed post. What did you give us for Nathan Vardy?

 

[The 747]

Geelong don't have to accept any trade, that is their prerogative.

If Geelong turn down WC's 2019 and 2020 first round picks and force Kelly into the draft they will be playing 3-4 home games a season and Docklands for quite some time...

Yeah I would reckon, this thread is ridiculous anyway. WC will offer two firsts and we will take it IMO.

 

[The 747]

And McGovern is worth significantly more than Kelly. Thats the point.

Well, not to us. No slight on McGovern who would obviously improve the side but we are pretty well covered for competent key backs. Not sure why we are talking about a player who won't be offered for trade in this deal and plays in one of the few positions we have well covered.

 

[Scotland]

I know this is in response to a Cats supporter being OTT but this is an incredibly misinformed post. What did you give us for Nathan Vardy?

Pick 72. And a small number of your fans wanted to force him into the draft out of pettiness... Nothing trades happen all the time. You got Rohan for a token pick and traded Thurlow and Horlin-Smith for similar picks. Even McCarthy wasn't a high value trade for a pick in the 40s. Every year clubs trade players who want opportunities elsewhere for picks they aren't even guaranteed to use.

FWIW if you want Vardy back then I'm happy to take pick 72 in return.

 

[The 747]

Pick 72. And a small number of your fans wanted to force him into the draft out of pettiness... Nothing trades happen all the time. You got Rohan for a token pick and traded Thurlow and Horlin-Smith for similar picks. Even McCarthy wasn't a high value trade for a pick in the 40s. Every year clubs trade players who want opportunities elsewhere for picks they aren't even guaranteed to use.

FWIW if you want Vardy back then I'm happy to take pick 72 in return.

No, pick 75 is his value now. . Cats fans weren't happy with him leaving because he had spent five or so years in our medical room then upped and left.

I wonder what it is with him, he is big, athletic, big jump, very agile and quite skilled but it just doesn't seem to all work together, ever.

 

[Scotland]

No, pick 75 is his value now. . Cats fans weren't happy with him leaving because he had spent five or so years in our medical room then upped and left.

I wonder what it is with him, he is big, athletic, big jump, very agile and quite skilled but it just doesn't seem to all work together, ever.

He would've had had plenty of company in that room. Collecting damaged ruckmen used to be your thing.

He's been OK for us, he's just not a very good first ruckman. Did his job last year when Naitanui went down and helped to quell Gawn and Grundy with Lycett. Ideally we would be playing Naitanui and Vardy in tandem but Naitanui is injured and Hickey/Vardy in tandem is too much carbs. Plus our biggest depth currently is marking forwards so we don't really need a third target. He does also come across as dumb as a bag of rucks but then so do most rucks.

 

[JackOutback]

Except Geelong don't have to accept the two first rounders. They don't havea gun to their head. They can refuse and Kelly will be forced to enter the draft where Gold Coast pick him up.

If you don't think they will pick him you're dreaming

You could also kidnap Kelly’s wife and hold her hostage until he signs. It’s as likely a scenario as yours in the modern AFL world.

 

[Peel67skin]

You could also kidnap Kelly’s wife and hold her hostage until he signs. It’s as likely a scenario as yours in the modern AFL world.

Wow you are the person who suggested it.

 

[foxdog50]

Yeah I would reckon, this thread is ridiculous anyway. WC will offer two firsts and we will take it IMO.

Exactly... West Coast or if it's Freo. It will be 2019 & 2020 1st round picks. As the talks we want 2 1st round picks in the top 10 I can't see that happening. To get there we may swap our 3rd round pick for either teams 2nd round pick to help out.

 

[Priddis Is Done]

What, no Yeo, Shuey and Barrass as well? If you’re gonna ask for fanciful trades, go all in.

Unders for Kelly.

Needs more younger players into the mix. Add Brander, , Allen and Cameron as steak knives

 

[Off Tap]

If you don't think they will pick him you're dreaming

GCS are bleeding players due to the go home factor.

That's their major issue.

Then they are suppose to go and blow a top pick on a player that wants to leave their current club to go home to WA.

They are smarter than that.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

I think it's got the potential to be the biggest trade ever. Very little leverage in West Coast's favour. Two first rounders as they are likely to be (17-18 each year) plus Brander would be my ball park.

 

[eastfreo75]

Yeah I would reckon, this thread is ridiculous anyway. WC will offer two firsts and we will take it IMO.

Then the cats will have four first round picks to trade for other players.

Which they do very well.

 

[foxdog50]

Then the cats will have four first round picks to trade for other players.

Which they do very well.

4? How you get 4?

 

[Turbocat]

I know this is in response to a Cats supporter being OTT but this is an incredibly misinformed post. What did you give us for Nathan Vardy?

I was not being OTT at all. I would not pay a R1 pick for a contracted 29 year old play that has hardly played this year. At the most I would pay R2.. I do not see this as OTT at all.. he is a UFA in 12 months ..if a deal cant be worked out then we see a player see out his contract to his current club.

 

[Turbocat]

I think it's got the potential to be the biggest trade ever. Very little leverage in West Coast's favour. Two first rounders as they are likely to be (17-18 each year) plus Brander would be my ball park.

I doubt it will be that... historically the last 6 to 8 super deals have mostly involved 2 R1 picks with something going back. The Treloar deal would seem a reasonable template. It depends on the value of the picks. 2 late R1 picks would not require as much to going back if anything at all..

If it comes to pass a deal will be done ..