Recommitted Tim Kelly [requested a trade to West Coast]

[Turbocat]

4? How you get 4?

The post is referring to our R1 , our FR1 and the two picks gained. Im not sure that it would be allowed to trade our FR1 anyway if we trade out of this years R1 , so I doubt we will trade out our the first round totally ..even if we do something so ambitious as trade for Cameron( which I hope we do not)

 

[Turbocat]

Geelong don't have to accept any trade, that is their prerogative.

If Geelong turn down WC's 2019 and 2020 first round picks and force Kelly into the draft they will be playing 3-4 home games a season and Docklands for quite some time...

Geelong and WC/Freo will work something out. We on here tend to get emotional about this pick or that where as I feel the clubs will be very unlikely to get caught up into a big barney over it. Not good for Kelly or future situations ..so professional clubs just prefer to work with each other , get something done and move on.

Not sure what the 3-4 games docklands thing means.. but i do think that the afl would come in at some stage to try to help with a deal if need be. The draft already infringes on players , Kelly only two years ago was in the draft.. to be asked to do it again would be a bad look for their system. For mine... the AFL should look at introducing something like I heard the NFL has .. Undrafted Free Agents. If a player is missed at the draft for 4-5 year (for eg.) I dont think he should have to submit for the draft at all. Everyone has had multiple looks at him and passed.Its not like he was hidden playing in the bush etc. I doubt anyone could say that if TK was a FA that he would have chosen to join WC last year.

 

[Joao]

So is he still West Coast bound or are we actually a viable alternative? I thought for a while there he might hang around Geelong but I guess that looks less likely each week he doesn't sign. Not talking from Geelong's perspective (they'd clearly rather deal with us) but Tim's.

 

[Ok Boomer]

I think it's got the potential to be the biggest trade ever. Very little leverage in West Coast's favour. Two first rounders as they are likely to be (17-18 each year) plus Brander would be my ball park.

It won't be plus Brander, guaranteed.

 

[Obeanie1]

So this has gone from a Tim Kelly thread to a Eagles v Pies thread now

We need something new to discuss on here.

 

[Obeanie1]

Except Geelong don't have to accept the two first rounders. They don't havea gun to their head. They can refuse and Kelly will be forced to enter the draft where Gold Coast pick him up.

If you don't think they will pick him you're dreaming

This exact thing has been discussed 1,000,000 times already.

 

[Obeanie1]

I think it's got the potential to be the biggest trade ever. Very little leverage in West Coast's favour. Two first rounders as they are likely to be (17-18 each year) plus Brander would be my ball park.

JK almost done. Brander contracted for two more years.

Eagles if pushed would use their 2019 1st plus their 2019 2nd to land a top 10 pick.

2019 top 10 pick plus 2020 1st (16-18).

For Kelly plus Cats 2020 2nd.

Which is pretty close to the Shiels and Treloar trades.

No need to involve JK's imminent replacement at all.

 

[eastfreo75]

4? How you get 4?

Geelongs 2019 and 2020 first rounds plus what you get from West Coast.

 

[The 747]

It won't be plus Brander, guaranteed.

I have some memories of trading with WC for key forwards. No to WC forwards! (not that you would offer him anyway).

 

[Scotland]

Geelong and WC/Freo will work something out. We on here tend to get emotional about this pick or that where as I feel the clubs will be very unlikely to get caught up into a big barney over it. Not good for Kelly or future situations ..so professional clubs just prefer to work with each other , get something done and move on.

Not sure what the 3-4 games docklands thing means.. but i do think that the afl would come in at some stage to try to help with a deal if need be. The draft already infringes on players , Kelly only two years ago was in the draft.. to be asked to do it again would be a bad look for their system. For mine... the AFL should look at introducing something like I heard the NFL has .. Undrafted Free Agents. If a player is missed at the draft for 4-5 year (for eg.) I dont think he should have to submit for the draft at all. Everyone has had multiple looks at him and passed.Its not like he was hidden playing in the bush etc. I doubt anyone could say that if TK was a FA that he would have chosen to join WC last year.

I mean the AFL would look upon Geelong unfavourably. They tend to be petty and vindictive with clubs that do things they don't like.

Undrafted free agent idea has merit, really that would've seen Kelly eligible to sign with whoever from about 2013 onward assuming he would have gone into that draft. I do like the idea of each year having a draft class and from then on anyone not drafted can just sign with whichever club in whichever year.

Let's say Kelly joins Geelong in 2017 as a free agent. We'll ignore WC, Carlton and anyone else and assume that's the only offer he gets. What happens at the end of 2018 or 2019 (whenever his contract finishes) if he wants to leave? Does he revert to a standard out of contract player as he will be in October?

 

[Scotland]

I have some memories of trading with WC for key forwards. No to WC forwards! (not that you would offer him anyway).

Good on you for being open and not repressing those memories.

Mitchell White, Brett Spinks, David Haynes... other than Vardy I can't remember anyone else coming back the other way.

Shame you didn't pick up Gehrig. He could've been the difference in 2004/5 and might have hung on to 2007.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I doubt it will be that... historically the last 6 to 8 super deals have mostly involved 2 R1 picks with something going back. The Treloar deal would seem a reasonable template. It depends on the value of the picks. 2 late R1 picks would not require as much to going back if anything at all..

If it comes to pass a deal will be done ..

Pick 16 x 2 is not really a very attractive trade offer for Geelong.

 

[Kwality]

Shuey won the Norm Smith with Greenwood tagging him after half time. That he has 0 AA selections while Shane Edwards has 1 is embarrassing.

It should cause the AFL admin to review the selection process.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

JK almost done. Brander contracted for two more years.

Eagles if pushed would use their 2019 1st plus their 2019 2nd to land a top 10 pick.

2019 top 10 pick plus 2020 1st (16-18).

For Kelly plus Cats 2020 2nd.

Which is pretty close to the Shiels and Treloar trades.

No need to involve JK's imminent replacement at all.

No one will trade you a top 10 pick for that.

 

[Scotland]

No one will trade you a top 10 pick for that.

Agree that's probably not enough but academy, F/S and NGA bidding skews the value of certain picks.

If you are going to burn pick 10 anyway then swapping it and getting a future 1st is a good move. I would expect a club in that situation to want at least our 2020 1st plus Sydney's 2019 2nd that we have which should be in the 20s and is a good points value pick.

 

[Kwality]

It won't be plus Brander, guaranteed.

Why ?

 

[Scotland]

It should cause the AFL admin to review the selection process.

Every year there are head scratching decisions but it's just a popularity contest and doesn't mean anything. It's not like the NBA where missing the All NBA team costs you millions in your next contract (see: Klay Thompson).

 

[Obeanie1]

No one will trade you a top 10 pick for that.

GWS will be trading the Essendon pick. Say pick 9.

Eagles pick 16-18 plus pick 33-36 for pick 9.

If need be the Swans 2nd pick 23 is needed.

Pick 9 = 1469 points.

Pick 18 +36 = 1487 points.

Pick 18 + 23 = 1800 points.

If the Eagles finish between 2nd > 4th its easily done / realistic.

Finish 4th then pick 15+ 33 = 1675.

 

[Taylor]

GWS will be trading the Essendon pick. Say pick 9.

Eagles pick 16-18 plus pick 33-36 for pick 9.

If need be the Swans 2nd pick 23 is needed.

Pick 9 = 1469 points.

Pick 18 +36 = 1487 points.

Pick 18 + 23 = 1800 points.

If the Eagles finish between 2nd > 4th its easily done / realistic.

I think Freo will trade their first for the two picks GWS has currently, that gets them ahead of their academy pick like they did with Tarranto.

Freo only need to lose to Sydney and St Kilda and they have pick #4.

#4 to GWS for #11 and #13

Then Geelong and Freo deal for Kelly with two picks ahead of West Coast's #15

If GWS also have pick #14 for Coniglio and Freo have #5 from Hill free agency compensation it gets interesting.

Freo could have #4 and #5, GWS have #11, #13 and #14.

Freo trade #4 and #22 to GWS for #11, #13 and #14

Freo trade #11 and #13 to Geelong for Kelly.

Freo take #5, #14 to the draft.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I think Freo will trade their first for the two picks GWS has currently, that gets them ahead of their academy pick like they did with Tarranto.

Freo only need to lose to Sydney and St Kilda and they have pick #4.

#4 to GWS for #11 and #13

Then Geelong and Freo deal for Kelly with two picks ahead of West Coast's #15

If GWS also have pick #14 for Coniglio and Freo have #5 from Hill free agency compensation it gets interesting.

Freo could have #4 and #5, GWS have #11, #13 and #14.

Freo trade #4 and #22 to GWS for #11, #13 and #14

Freo trade #11 and #13 to Geelong for Kelly.

Freo take #5, #14 to the draft.

Theres zero chance you get band 1 for Stephen Hill. I like your general idea though.

 

[Taylor]

Theres zero chance you get band 1 for Stephen Hill. I like your general idea though.

It's essentially a downgrade of our first round pick and a second for Tim Kelly. If Geelong get their two picks inside the top 15, hopefully they feel happy with that. GWS supporters might not feel so happy but they get a top five pick before their academy player is bid on, so essentially turning their first round picks into two top seven picks and a second round pick.

In my view that would represent a four party win.

 

[Turbocat]

I mean the AFL would look upon Geelong unfavourably. They tend to be petty and vindictive with clubs that do things they don't like.

Undrafted free agent idea has merit, really that would've seen Kelly eligible to sign with whoever from about 2013 onward assuming he would have gone into that draft. I do like the idea of each year having a draft class and from then on anyone not drafted can just sign with whichever club in whichever year.

Let's say Kelly joins Geelong in 2017 as a free agent. We'll ignore WC, Carlton and anyone else and assume that's the only offer he gets. What happens at the end of 2018 or 2019 (whenever his contract finishes) if he wants to leave? Does he revert to a standard out of contract player as he will be in October?

Im not that aware of the NFL system..for us.. its a thought bubble so..all things open for discussion from my pov. Id imagine a system where players are FA after 4 years or a certain age could be looked at.So many FA's that comp for FA may not be needed.I have said it before that there is a case for far more FA or even investigating a system without draft... the cap plays a role in keeping things reasonably level ..and to my mind there would be far less go home factor if they chose their destination from day one..in fact there might be some desire to move for money to other states once they have had the desired dream experience.. for a metro vic kids id imagine that have dreamed of playing being anzac day , playing on the G , big crowds etc... but by the 3rd contract maybe the thrill of that has gone and now they are looking for long term financial security etc. Thats some time off ..but my point is the draft and the rules and not set in stone.

I dont doubt the afl can swing some weight if the want to ..its more likely to be more subtle than 3 or 4 games at Marvel.

 

[Turbocat]

Pick 16 x 2 is not really a very attractive trade offer for Geelong.

If we are thinking it going to be like last night and we win the 110M in powerball then I think we will be disappointed... You know as well as I do... Geelong are nothing if not practical.. they would look at it say P16 this year ..next who knows but between 12-18 (WC are not Melb).. and picks of that range may appeal if they are going to on trade them anyway

 

[Ok Boomer]

I have some memories of trading with WC for key forwards. No to WC forwards! (not that you would offer him anyway).

hehe take that David Haynes and Mitchell White

 

[Ok Boomer]

Why ?

Because JK is likely to be finished within the next 18-24 months.