List Mgmt. Trade and F/A - Part 3

[Kappa]

It was 24 and 30 was it not? Plus a future fourth?
Who would pay more than those picks this year anyway? Completely compromised draft early with Daicos and Darcy, Horne-Francis is gone and then the jump to the tier below is massive. Two picks in the early second could nearly be worth more than pick 2 > which would slide to 4 due to the blanket style nature of this draft. Players are getting ranged all over the shop. The pick would’ve been swallowed by a Daicos bid at 1, and we fast tracked by going a year early (and probably two years early considering we probably would’ve traded out if this draft with #2 into next years draft)
Considering Reef was always going to come to us, the addition of that pick 24 actually netted us Fin without having to lose Poulter and losing picks that way. The five player selection last year was an amazing outcome for us, people thinking having pick two would be rosy because NM wouldn’t have bid (there is no universe where they allow us to select a top 5 pick as well as daicos) are completely naive.

This is some serious coping.

 

[Silky23]

This is some serious coping.

It’s called coming to the realisation of what happened and dealing with it instead of living through hindsight and living in fairyland about the’ ‘what if’s’.

 

[sr36]

It was 24 and 30 was it not? Plus a future fourth?
Who would pay more than those picks this year anyway? Completely compromised draft early with Daicos and Darcy, Horne-Francis is gone and then the jump to the tier below is massive. Two picks in the early second could nearly be worth more than pick 2 > which would slide to 4 due to the blanket style nature of this draft. Players are getting ranged all over the shop. The pick would’ve been swallowed by a Daicos bid at 1, and we fast tracked by going a year early (and probably two years early considering we probably would’ve traded out if this draft with #2 into next years draft)
Considering Reef was always going to come to us, the addition of that pick 24 actually netted us Fin without having to lose Poulter and losing picks that way. The five player selection last year was an amazing outcome for us, people thinking having pick two would be rosy because NM wouldn’t have bid (there is no universe where they allow us to select a top 5 pick as well as daicos) are completely naive.

I'll be shocked and say great call Silky, if GWS trade their pick 2 for two picks in the 20s.

You might still have to run me through that bolded sentence though.

 

[jc37]

We are talking hindsight. Pick 2 to me could have netted us Cerra in a trade which would be ahead of Poulter and McMahon at this stage. Poulter maybe a 200 gamer. McMahon has upside. Its all history now.

 

[BEEG]

A couple of things worth remembering with Moore, De Goey and Maynard next year.

1. They are all restricted free agents meaning that we have the option match any offers they receive to force a trade. That means that any offer from a rival club needs to exceed what we have budgeted for each of them to get them as a free agent.

2. Those sort of offers would likely attract a first round pick each as compensation. Now bare in mind that the position of those picks is tied directly to our normal first round pick regardless of whether we still hold it. So even if we trade it this year to get another top 5 pick this year those compensation picks would still be the next picks after that pick.

3. So let’s say the worst happens next year and we finish bottom 2 and all three decided to leave for offers we can’t match. We could conceivably be left holding 4 of the top 5 selections in next year’s draft

Now for me I hope that all three stay and we bounce back up the ladder, but I don’t think we should be tearing our hair out or going all doomsday if they don’t.

Compo only works on the one player from what I can remember? Not sure we would get compo for all 3?

 

[BEEG]

Seriously we all know what happened last year, we all didn’t like it but for God sake move on. All the whinging in the world won’t change it. Bring on 2022. I can’t wait.

Yeah it won't change but let's not be one eyed idiots and continue to make excuses and defend the decision.

 

[Dead Eye Didak]

You know I don’t want to lose them but also don’t want our Salary cap to be hamstrung by 3-4 players

If we lose 3-4 of the well known stars, then we have a very strong draft hand, especially if we bottom out for a year or two.

I’m ok with that.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

If we lose 3 to 4 stars, we won't be bottoming out for a year or two, it will be much longer than that!!

 

[Scodog10]

You do realise the 2km time trial is a measure of ones cardiovascular system?

if you do understand this, then how can you not understand the link between a test (such as the 2km time trial) to measure ones cardiovascular endurance, and ones ability to sustain muscular and cardiovascular movements in terms of game related movements

Your cardiovascular system are working in both situations, under different contexts. Those who test better in running tests, such as beep tests, 2km’s etc, is a direct indicator of how their cardiovascular system will hold up under repeated efforts involved in game/match situations. Its the same system being tested. It is the ability of your heart and lungs to pump oxygen to fuel your body.

If you can’t see the link between the two, then i’m not sure I can help you haha

My mind is genuinely blown by the bolded statement in particular, but to a lesser extent the overall post.

Could you explain to me how running 2km around an oval is a better measure of the stress the cardiovascular system endures during a football match than 20 minutes of interval running broken up with contested simulations? I’m not for a second disputing that testing their cardiovascular strength is important because it’s probably the second most important factor we should be testing (psych being the first). The problem is it’s as relevant as the 20 metre sprint times!

edit: just realised you were triggered by my “it holds zero value” and probably didn’t take much of the rest of my post in. Although I would have thought it was obvious that they were testing for these sorts of factors I get how the start of that post comes across

The thrust of my post was that the 2km TT is a poor test of that output. Grundy’s perhaps the worst TT I’ve seen at the club, but his spread from the contest for a ruckman is elite. Spread from the contest is what clubs really want to know which the simple drill I’ve outlined is a much better test for (it’s probably still flawed) and if I thought they weren’t testing their cardiovascular output I wouldn’t have offered an alternative to the 2km TT.

The old "no matter how much training you do, there's nothing like match fitness" argument you hear after round one in local footy leagues around the country.

You'd think someone would've come up with a match simulation/endurance course by now!

The fittest bloke ever could do the perfect pre-season and still be gassed 15 minutes into a match! The same goes for speed testing I’ll never forget Joel Wilkinson breaking the 20m sprint record, but being slower than Pendles in game.

I reckon the start of pre-season TT is purely for psychological purposes and it’s easier to implement that type of testing across an entire playing list than the drill I outlined, but yeah it staggers me that they haven’t got something more applicable at the draft combine. The whole point of that is to see how the kids perform in a controlled environment with as close to match conditions as you can get…

 

[Anzacday]

I’d say a better measure would be for players to wrestle each other for 3-5 seconds then have to run 50 metres to a designated spot. Do that as many times as you can over a 20 minute stretch and you’ve got a much better gauge on someone’s endurance

Exactly what our new fitness guy professes

 

[unplugged]

So let's listen to the media for a second.

Next year we'll probably come last, because we're rubbish.

But then we somehow won't be able to afford Moore, DeGoey or Maynard, so they'll all leave.

Then what? Three first round compensation picks?

Maybe we'll end up with picks 1, 2, 3 and 4

You just know they'd ditch compensation the day after that happened.

 

[Seedsfan]

You do realise the 2km time trial is a measure of ones cardiovascular system?

if you do understand this, then how can you not understand the link between a test (such as the 2km time trial) to measure ones cardiovascular endurance, and ones ability to sustain muscular and cardiovascular movements in terms of game related movements

Your cardiovascular system are working in both situations, under different contexts. Those who test better in running tests, such as beep tests, 2km’s etc, is a direct indicator of how their cardiovascular system will hold up under repeated efforts involved in game/match situations. Its the same system being tested. It is the ability of your heart and lungs to pump oxygen to fuel your body.

If you can’t see the link between the two, then i’m not sure I can help you haha

Lol, so much so that they are moving away from the beep test as there is no specificity to football

 

[Scodog10]

So let's listen to the media for a second.

Next year we'll probably come last, because we're rubbish.

But then we somehow won't be able to afford Moore, DeGoey or Maynard, so they'll all leave.

Then what? Three first round compensation picks?

Maybe we'll end up with picks 1, 2, 3 and 4

You just know they'd ditch compensation the day after that happened.

What staggers me about the Grundy/ Moore/ JDG narrative is how they’re ignoring the pay structure of other clubs. Melbourne have Gawn, Oliver and Petracca. Carlton have Mackay, Cripps and Walsh. Geelong have Danger, Hawkins and Cameron. Brisbane have Neale, Daniher and Andrews.

The point is that most clubs with stars on their list generally have at least three that can command $1m on the open market. We also had this issue in 2020 when all three were off contract in 2021 and we got all three signed. I think the difficulty will be if JDG and Moore have AA caliber seasons and we still stink.

I also saw a little bit of concern around GW mentioning there’s still issues for us to work through relating to the salary cap. The key factor for those big names is that their next contract starts in 2023 which provides us with two trade periods to rectify any ongoing concerns. The issues would also primarily relate to guys like Howe and Sidebottom who are probably earning a combined 10% or more of our salary cap, are over 30 and have given us nothing in 20-21.

From a pay structure perspective the only guys I’m confident we currently have signed up for 2023 and beyond are Crisp, Adams, Ruscoe, Mihocek, Daicos x 2, Grundy, our 2020 draftees, Noble and Bianco so there’s no reason we can’t afford to keep the big 3 it’s more a matter of whether it’s at all costs. For instance if say Hawthorn came at Moore with a $6m contract over 5 seasons we can’t and won’t get near that if we remain in the bottom 4 so our offer will be more like $3.5m over 4. That would be tough for Moore to pass on…

 

[sr36]

You do realise the 2km time trial is a measure of ones cardiovascular system?

if you do understand this, then how can you not understand the link between a test (such as the 2km time trial) to measure ones cardiovascular endurance, and ones ability to sustain muscular and cardiovascular movements in terms of game related movements

Your cardiovascular system are working in both situations, under different contexts. Those who test better in running tests, such as beep tests, 2km’s etc, is a direct indicator of how their cardiovascular system will hold up under repeated efforts involved in game/match situations. Its the same system being tested. It is the ability of your heart and lungs to pump oxygen to fuel your body.

If you can’t see the link between the two, then i’m not sure I can help you haha

Physically, footy is about intense effort, jog, intense effort, jog, intense effort, jog. Someone like Oliver is a star physically because he can hit a really high intensity with his efforts and continue to jog to the next contest, over and over again. It's very different to running at a consistent good pace for a long time. The time trials are probably an OK indicator of likely footy endurance, but it wouldn't be an accurate indicator of footy endurance for many players, as being able to run at a fast consistent pace for 6 minutes without burst efforts isn't something footballers do in a match. It's why players used to always talk about being match fit.

 

[jonbe54]

Yeah it won't change but let's not be one eyed idiots and continue to make excuses and defend the decision.

I have no problem there BEEG but the endless, repetitive recitations of that time are beyond boring now.

My mind is genuinely blown by the bolded statement in particular, but to a lesser extent the overall post.

Could you explain to me how running 2km around an oval is a better measure of the stress the cardiovascular system endures during a football match than 20 minutes of interval running broken up with contested simulations? I’m not for a second disputing that testing their cardiovascular strength is important because it’s probably the second most important factor we should be testing (psych being the first). The problem is it’s as relevant as the 20 metre sprint times!

edit: just realised you were triggered by my “it holds zero value” and probably didn’t take much of the rest of my post in. Although I would have thought it was obvious that they were testing for these sorts of factors I get how the start of that post comes across

The thrust of my post was that the 2km TT is a poor test of that output. Grundy’s perhaps the worst TT I’ve seen at the club, but his spread from the contest for a ruckman is elite. Spread from the contest is what clubs really want to know which the simple drill I’ve outlined is a much better test for (it’s probably still flawed) and if I thought they weren’t testing their cardiovascular output I wouldn’t have offered an alternative to the 2km TT.



The fittest bloke ever could do the perfect pre-season and still be gassed 15 minutes into a match! The same goes for speed testing I’ll never forget Joel Wilkinson breaking the 20m sprint record, but being slower than Pendles in game.

I reckon the start of pre-season TT is purely for psychological purposes and it’s easier to implement that type of testing across an entire playing list than the drill I outlined, but yeah it staggers me that they haven’t got something more applicable at the draft combine. The whole point of that is to see how the kids perform in a controlled environment with as close to match conditions as you can get…

Standing 20 meter sprint is more about fast muscle fibre twitch rate and preparation than anything. First explosive step can be the difference between winning and losing.

 

[unplugged]

What staggers me about the Grundy/ Moore/ JDG narrative is how they’re ignoring the pay structure of other clubs. Melbourne have Gawn, Oliver and Petracca. Carlton have Mackay, Cripps and Walsh. Geelong have Danger, Hawkins and Cameron. Brisbane have Neale, Daniher and Andrews.

The point is that most clubs with stars on their list generally have at least three that can command $1m on the open market. We also had this issue in 2020 when all three were off contract in 2021 and we got all three signed. I think the difficulty will be if JDG and Moore have AA caliber seasons and we still stink.

I also saw a little bit of concern around GW mentioning there’s still issues for us to work through relating to the salary cap, but as long as we make the right decisions they’ll be sorted by the time those big names start their next contract in 2023. Those issues would primarily relate to guys like Howe and Sidebottom who are probably earning a combined 10% or more of our salary cap, are over 30 and have given us nothing in 20-21.

From a pay structure perspective the only guys I’m confident we currently have signed up for 2023 and beyond are Crisp, Adams, Ruscoe, Mihocek, Daicos x 2, Grundy, our 2020 draftees, Noble and Bianco so there’s no reason we can’t afford to keep the big 3 it’s more a matter of whether it’s at all costs. For instance if say Hawthorn came at Moore with a $6m contract over 5 seasons we can’t and won’t get near that if we remain in the bottom 4 so our offer will be more like $3.5m over 4. That would be tough for Moore to pass on…

I honestly think GW will still be saying we've got a cap hangover next year. It seems to be about the only way a list manager can actually negotiate with players and their managers.

But of course we probably wouldn't be even having this conversation right now if there was actually a half decent trade for Trade Radio to talk about.

The fact Cerra is the biggest name on the move is excruciating, and I almost feel sorry for them.

 

[sr36]

I honestly think GW will still be saying we've got a cap hangover next year. It seems to be about the only way a list manager can actually negotiate with players and their managers.

But of course we probably wouldn't be even having this conversation right now if there was actually a half decent trade for Trade Radio to talk about.

The fact Cerra is the biggest name on the move is excruciating, and I almost feel sorry for them.

It's a sad day when there isn't even the possibility of a convoluted 4 club mega deal to speculate about.

 

[Scodog10]

I honestly think GW will still be saying we've got a cap hangover next year. It seems to be about the only way a list manager can actually negotiate with players and their managers.

But of course we probably wouldn't be even having this conversation right now if there was actually a half decent trade for Trade Radio to talk about.

The fact Cerra is the biggest name on the move is excruciating, and I almost feel sorry for them.

Absolutely! I’d be running with it because you’ve got to find leverage. The reality is though that we wouldn’t be going to market if we were concerned about the salary cap and even though Lipinski and Kreuger are “cheap” options combined they’ll hold the value of a Cerra under the salary cap…

I think that on here it’s more about understanding the actual landscape. Us capologists could see the cumulative effect of bad contract after bad contract building dating back to Wells and Mayne so it was inevitable that we’d hit the wall eventually. We haven’t had any of those since Grundy’s so we should be confident that we’re getting on top of it.

I think Cerra being the only name on the market is an indicator of the general state of salary caps around the league. I have no idea how Carlton have money with the guys I mentioned in my previous post plus Williams, Saad, Weitering and now Hewitt and Cerra between those 8 they’re looking at roughly 50% of their salary cap in 2022 which allows for less than $200k per player across the rest of their list. They are win now!

Getting back to your point on trade radios lack of content I think it’ll be like this until all of the pre Covid contracts are done. By then we should be as open as we’re ever going to get and the salary cap will likely be on the rise so we should see a spike in movement with a lot of guys that took less during the Covid period looking to cash in.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

We are talking hindsight. Pick 2 to me could have netted us Cerra in a trade which would be ahead of Poulter and McMahon at this stage. Poulter maybe a 200 gamer. McMahon has upside. Its all history now.

Does pick #2 net us a version of Cerra from an alternate universe who doesn’t mind not getting paid for a few years?

 

[whiskeytown]

If we don't get him we don't get him, we aren't contenders people need to realise this.
Yup he'd be s nice addition but he isn't critical to our rebuild.
Club after last few years trades need to not be bent over.

A future 3rd is likely a pick in the low 40s. Even less than what we expected on here for Tom Phillips last year had the club not been bent over a barrel

Tom Phillips and Patrick Lipinski AFL Stats Comparison

Tom Phillips and Patrick Lipinski AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

Lipinski is an upgrade on Phillips. A future 3rd is completely reasonable a pick.

What’s more, who are we likely to get with that future 3rd that is better than him? There’s about a 10% chance that we would take that low to mid 40s pick to the draft next year and nail a better player

Not saying you specifically... but it amuses me how on Bigfooty our cast offs are all worth 3rd round picks but we should only pay 4th round picks for other clubs players... or in this case just walk them to the preseason draft

 

[Quicky]

Yeah it won't change but let's not be one eyed idiots and continue to make excuses and defend the decision.

This shits been getting disected for a year. It's tedious and unconstructive at this point.

 

[jonbe54]

This shits been getting disected for a year. It's tedious and unconstructive at this point.

For a while it was just boring, it's now become annoying and in most cases absolutely irrelevant to the discussion in hand.

Some people refuse to move on.

 

[loki04]

We are talking hindsight. Pick 2 to me could have netted us Cerra in a trade which would be ahead of Poulter and McMahon at this stage. Poulter maybe a 200 gamer. McMahon has upside. Its all history now.

Yeah what's done is done and it may still work out but we can't pretend it was a good deal if we are talking purely trade outcome.

 

[well left]

We are talking hindsight. Pick 2 to me could have netted us Cerra in a trade which would be ahead of Poulter and McMahon at this stage. Poulter maybe a 200 gamer. McMahon has upside. Its all history now.

Except we don’t have salary cap to bring anyone like Cerra in. It’s why our pick had to be traded for other picks.

The option was trade it last year to get two players in then or wait until this year and trade it back.

Obviously we didn’t intend to end up with pick 2 so we went with the first option.

The trade itself wasn’t too bad for mine. It was how this year fell apart.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[loki04]

A future 3rd is likely a pick in the low 40s. Even less than what we expected on here for Tom Phillips last year had the club not been bent over a barrel

Tom Phillips and Patrick Lipinski AFL Stats Comparison

Tom Phillips and Patrick Lipinski AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

Lipinski is an upgrade on Phillips. A future 3rd is completely reasonable a pick.

What’s more, who are we likely to get with that future 3rd that is better than him? There’s about a 10% chance that we would take that low to mid 40s pick to the draft next year and nail a better player

Not saying you specifically... but it amuses me how on Bigfooty our cast offs are all worth 3rd round picks but we should only pay 4th round picks for other clubs players... or in this case just walk them to the preseason draft

I'm ok with a future 3rd but not future 2nd.

My point is the club needs to stand firm on whatever they believe is a fair price and not fold like a house of cards.

 

[loki04]

For those of you wanting to trade next years first or not do a proper rebuild here are just 2 of the KPF available next year.

Lemmey


Keeler hanger and then 5 goals mix of highlights/lowlights.





If Degoey takes the FA option as is being rumoured to be considered then potentially depending on our finish we may land both.