List Mgmt. Trade and F/A - Part 3

[loki04]

That good will is a fairy tale anyway.

Yes we seemingly are the only club interested in it, every other club just goes thank you very much.

 

[loki04]

Potentially, but I reckon there is something in it. Every negotiation I’ve been part of you take past relationships into consideration. Being beyond fair suggests you should expect fairness in return. Dodorro for example can’t expect people to be fair when he is a flog.

For e.g if I was negotiating with GC I’d bring up the Witts deal, like I would expect Brisbane did when raping us with trading Beams back. I expect the Queens birthday gate had something to do with Ball ending up at the pies and not the Dees…it can be the smallest margin but enough to get a deal done in your favour. If you distrust or hate the person you’re dealing with then you’re more likely to agitate than facilitate. That’s human nature, look at the Myers boardroom disaster.

If that was true then Dodoro wouldn't of got Shiel and Smith and Stringer or a good deal on Daniher etc.

He is notorious for his trade dealings and hardline stance.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Potentially, but I reckon there is something in it. Every negotiation I’ve been part of you take past relationships into consideration. Being beyond fair suggests you should expect fairness in return. Dodoro for example can’t expect people to be fair when he is a flog.

Fair enough with Dodoro, he’s been around at the same club for a long time and has earnt his reputation. Most clubs have too much turnover for “good will” to be a significant factor. We will soon have our third list manager in six months.

 

[MightyPage025]

Tyler Keitel killing it in the WAFL, kicked 43 in his last 10 games including 2 bags of 7 and an 8.
Still only 25 years old, 196cm which is slightly undersized but would have been happy picking up Callow in the MSD who is a similar build.

Would like to see what he can do in an AFL system.

Does he play Basketball, Cricket or from another country? If not Hine not interested.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Does he play Basketball, Cricket or from another country? If not Hine not interested.

Not versatile enough. Only kicks goals.

 

[loki04]

Fair enough with Dodoro, he’s been around at the same club for a long time and has earnt his reputation. Most clubs have too much turnover for “good will” to be a significant factor. We will soon have our third list manager in six months.

Dodoro still gets it done when he wants to though, he's just notorious for walking away if it doesn't suit.

 

[sr36]

Tyler Keitel killing it in the WAFL, kicked 43 in his last 10 games including 2 bags of 7 and an 8.
Still only 25 years old, 196cm which is slightly undersized but would have been happy picking up Callow in the MSD who is a similar build.

Would like to see what he can do in an AFL system.

196 cm isn't undersized.

 

[Chrispiesssss]

If we could get Dunstan & Stephens this year, I think that would be good. They would come fairly cheap too.

A midfield with Pendles, Sidebottom, Adams, De Goey, Dunstan, Macrae / Stephens / Reef. Pendles & Sidebottom transitioning out the midfield hopefully.

P.S. Dunstan’ pretty good.

 

[sr36]

Dodoro still gets it done when he wants to though, he's just notorious for walking away if it doesn't suit.

I like Hine, but he's no businessman. We became a dead duck in trades a fair few years ago when he publicly admitted that his attitude was when you get a kid to nominate you, it's a bloody big deal and as he's burnt some bridges, so you've got to make sure you get the deal done. It's an attitude I admire due to respect for the players, but jeez it was dumb in terms of business.

 

[gouki88]

If we could get Dunstan & Stephens this year, I think that would be good. They would come fairly cheap too.

A midfield with Pendles, Sidebottom, Adams, De Goey, Dunstan, Macrae / Stephens / Reef. Pendles & Sidebottom transitioning out the midfield hopefully.

P.S. Dunstan’ pretty good.

View attachment 1214345

Quite bewildered that he's on the outer there. Statistical profile very similar to Cripps. I'd jump on board for cheap

 

[partypie]

Strategically it would make more sense for them to bid on Darcy first since the dogs are a stronger club and it will essentially take them completely out of the draft.

That's not even counting the fact that they stocked up on midfielders last year, so if you're going with the "list need" factor then Darcy would be the one for them to bid on first.

 

[iGNITER]

Unreal to think we are probably going into the draft with a worse draft hand than any side in the comp:

Collingwood

33, 39, 41, 45

Shocking position we have put ourselves in adding to our recent salary cap woes.

It's hard to fathom.

 

[Rusty Beam]

So before compromised drafts there was one maybe 2 busts or none given some of those you listed actually had ok careers.

Brennan hardly a bust but didn't live up to potential.
Clarke, McLean and Sylvia also not draft busts.
Ellis almost won a Norm Smith in fact should of won one, again not a bust not hitting those expectations though.
Watts and Hartlett again had solid careers they aren't busts.
Swallow, Bennell (only a bust due to his off field stuff 100% has all the talent) Day aren't busts.
Most your lists is filled with players still playing the game, they just didn't meet expectations. Which is often a benefit of top talent most times you either get a gun or at least a solid player. Later in the draft most times you get a good or solid player or a bust with the occasional gun.


You want me to list how many.players were ACTUAL busts from every other round and the list will be 1000 times greater then yours.

Yes yes we lucked out 1 draft over 21 years ago and had Dane Swan from it.

You are using the odd player from each draft that gets underrated by recruiters to try argue that using later picks is better then the more reliable method of top 5 pick.
Given that player is available at 5 or below still if your recruiters are worth their salt they would take them then like Dekka did with Pendles.

Your argument is so flawed its not funny.

In essence I agree with your argument.

Although personally I think there is some overvaluation that happens with top 5 picks.

Obviously it depends on a clubs draft priorities and probably has an exception for elite key position prospects (because there are so few in each draft), but generally I would much prefer a couple of mid first round picks over one single top 5 pick.

Give me pick 9 & 10 over just pick 3 any day of the week.

 

[whiskeytown]

Unreal to think we are probably going into the draft with a worse draft hand than any side in the comp:

Collingwood

33, 39, 41, 45

Shocking position we have put ourselves in adding to our recent salary cap woes.

It's hard to fathom.

A positive is that we could nab a semi decent out of contract player without having to trade for them... as we’ll have Pick 2 in the preseason draft.

Only hurdle is NM taking that player instead. But they’ll probably already have their eyes on doing the same with someone else

 

[loki04]

In essence I agree with your argument.

Although personally I think there is some overvaluation that happens with top 5 picks.

Obviously it depends on a clubs draft priorities and probably has an exception for elite key position prospects (because there are so few in each draft), but generally I would much prefer a couple of mid first round picks over one single top 5 pick.

Give me pick 9 & 10 over just pick 3 any day of the week.

For mine it depends on where your list is at imo at the start of a rebuild you need to get those high tier picks in.
As you do acquire them, then yes getting a couple mid round first will likely be a better fit or outcome for a stronger 22.

Likewise if your list just doesn't quite have enough match winners and you happen to have a poor year then dipping to bottom 5 is more then likely going to be better then winning an extra 2 games and finishing 10th.

Timing and talent on list needs to be factored.

 

[Jasper84]

Bit like their argument that top 5 picks aren't worth it and better off with late picks going off a piss weak list of those he deemed busts?

Answer the question show me a club that can consistently find elite star talent from picks that late in the draft?

Reason you spit a glib 1 liner answer is because even you know its a BS premise.

You guys see the odd good player come from a rdm point in the draft and instead of
looking at it as an anomaly you have convinced yourself that its so common that its better then having access to not only the elite of the draft but more choice of what player is available.

Do you know what a strawman argument is? Because you are using it flat out and it's devaluing some good points you are trying to make

 

[HFF]

Unreal to think we are probably going into the draft with a worse draft hand than any side in the comp:

Collingwood

33, 39, 41, 45

Shocking position we have put ourselves in adding to our recent salary cap woes.

It's hard to fathom.

We took 6 players inside 44 last year
5 inside 31.
Everything we did that you see now was a byproduct of last years draft

If we didn’t have a father son prospect...we wouldn’t have planned it this way but we made as good as we could to bring in 6 young players in one sitting in the ND last year.

 

[loki04]

Do you know what a strawman argument is?

Yes you guys presenting an argument that doesn't address the original topic and misrepresentation of it.

Bit like what happened to my original comment.

 

[iGNITER]

We took 6 players inside 44 last year
5 inside 31.
Everything we did that you see now was a byproduct of last years draft

If we didn’t have a father son prospect...we wouldn’t have planned it this way but we made as good as we could to bring in 6 young players in one sitting in the ND last year.

Trading out our first pick knowing well and good we were going to be pretty average this year is a terrible decision. I mean, surely the club didn't actually believe we were going to be a top 8 side with the losses of 3 best 22 players.

 

[loki04]

Trading out our first pick knowing well and good we were going to be pretty average this year is a terrible decision. I mean, surely the club didn't actually believe we were going to be a top 8 side with the losses of 3 best 22 players.

They are taking a gamble that those players if they were in a normal season would of been much higher picks.
They are hoping the lack of footy played will have them having a high strike rate with multiple selections.

It could work out but then again it pick 2 currency is a lot if taken in for live trading or used if norf don't bid.

 

[iGNITER]

They are taking a gamble that those players if they were in a normal season would of been much higher picks.
They are hoping the lack of footy played will have them having a high strike rate with multiple selections.

It could work out but then again it pick 2 currency is a lot if taken in for live trading or used if norf don't bid.

Would have been nice to have pick 2 as currency.

 

[sr36]

We took 6 players inside 44 last year
5 inside 31.
Everything we did that you see now was a byproduct of last years draft

If we didn’t have a father son prospect...we wouldn’t have planned it this way but we made as good as we could to bring in 6 young players in one sitting in the ND last year.

Was it a short term PR campaign or did we use our assets wisely in our long term interests. Even if we went ok this year and ended up with pick 10, pick 10 for 25 and 28, or whatever it was, is still significant unders.

 

[iGNITER]

Was it a short term PR campaign or did we use our assets wisely. Even if we went ok this year and ended up with pick 10, pick 10 for 25 and 28, or whatever it was, is still significant unders.

For sure it was.

Teams will probably be lining up to deal with us this year after we were essentially the laughing stock of the trade period.

 

[Gone Critical]

They are taking a gamble that those players if they were in a normal season would of been much higher picks.
They are hoping the lack of footy played will have them having a high strike rate with multiple selections.

It could work out but then again it pick 2 currency is a lot if taken in for live trading or used if norf don't bid.

Its an interesting argument but they need to consider the flip side as well. If having limited information on players means some good ones will go late as they are not recognised equally some poorer ones will be picked ahead of where they should be. Limited information turns the draft into more of a crap shoot than an educated assessment. That can go either way.

 

[doppleganger]

Was it a short term PR campaign or did we use our assets wisely in our long term interests. Even if we went ok this year and ended up with pick 10, pick 10 for 25 and 28, or whatever it was, is still significant unders.

As we had Daicos on the hook it was all purely about draft points...just like Dogs with Ugle Hagen, you want to use first rounder elsewhere to benefit the list, and use late picks to match the bid.

In terms of draft points 25 & 28 are actually slightly more than 10.

Then the live trading was all about shifting around the 2020 order to also throw us a few 3rd rounders...ie we dropped back a couple of spots in the 20s in trades with Adelaide and Freo, but picked up 2021 3rd rounders from them.

You will only be able to determine if we made the right call based on performance of the 2020 kids and Daicos down the track.

But yeah when doing all that work, very much doubt we would have envisioned finishing 2nd bottom.