Strategy Trade and List Management thread 2.(...the waiting for the hammer to fall edition)

[Zgope1]

**** I hope this trade period isn't as boring as last time. Waited 10 days for a pick downgrade and selling Talia off cheap.

i hope it's boring for us but crazy shit happens in the afl

 

[Bemoreboyddog]

Wouldn't be surprised if Pies do get 29 for Witts, They were giving us 27 for Jong.

But as has been said above, it's not worth downgrading this year because it puts too many restrictions on us for the next 2 years.

 

[Bemoreboyddog]

**** I hope this trade period isn't as boring as last time. Waited 10 days for a pick downgrade and selling Talia off cheap.

This time we'll get Cloke and sell off Rat and Shark eyes on the cheap.

I'll be surprised if anything else happens.

 

[jdz101]

**** I hope this trade period isn't as boring as last time. Waited 10 days for a pick downgrade and selling Talia off cheap.

Well that pick downgrade got us dunkley so maybe more boring is a good thing

 

[Rookie]

Note: If you don't have the decency to provide a sensitive answer ignore this post and don't respond.

What do you think about:
Assuming Witts goes pick 29

Pick 27, Pick 29, Travis Cloke

For

Pick 18, Pick 61 ?

It's a relatively fair trade, but as others have mentioned it's not one that suits our needs this year. Unless Hamling goes we will only be taking three picks to the draft, and we need those to be as high as possible. We currently have 18, 40ish and 60ish and with Stevens and Hrovat going, we would probably look to upgrade pick 60ish to a second rounder and bank a pick for 2017. We also put a pretty silly constraint on future trading of first rounders if we downgrade our first this year.

 

[Dav1d]

**** I hope this trade period isn't as boring as last time. Waited 10 days for a pick downgrade and selling Talia off cheap.

you'd think nothing exciting has happened to us recently looking around here..

 

[perro_loco]

Nobody takes Wallet seriously...

wallett, ha, ha,,,

 

[CaptainMurphy]

you'd think nothing exciting has happened to us recently looking around here..

I've watched the replay most days since, I'm plenty excited. I don't get the "Who cares? We won the flag!" calls I've seen though. I care. I want another. I want a ****ing dynasty. I want to prevent Griff and the Plastic Fantastics getting any. I want to rule this competition with an iron fist so that in 50 years people ask "Hawthorn? Oh you mean that team that won a couple right before the Bulldogs ruined the competition?".

 

[perro_loco]

.

Snippet from earlier today on an AFL site article stating we're one of the teams who are interested in Nankervis from the Swans.
Not new information but nice to have it confirmed.

I just hope we aren't into Motlop and if we are we keep our first rounder. We need to give Dal another crack at the first round this year, even if it is a later pick.

Agree. Just hope that our pick 18 is nothing like a Chris Howard. In Dal and JMac I trust...

 

[Dav1d]

I've watched the replay most days since, I'm plenty excited. I don't get the "Who cares? We won the flag!" calls I've seen though. I care. I want another. I want a ******* dynasty. I want to prevent Griff and the Plastic Fantastics getting any. I want to rule this competition with an iron fist so that in 50 years people ask "Hawthorn? Oh you mean that team that won a couple right before the Bulldogs ruined the competition?".

I never said I didn't care. I just trust the club that won a premiership to know the best thing to do for us & I personally don't give two ****s how much buzz it causes. We are this years ****ing premiers.

 

[TimlinOfficial]

Well that pick downgrade got us dunkley so maybe more boring is a good thing

I was thinking about Dunkley: who are the other players since, say 2000, that have won a flag in their first year after being drafted? Must be a short list

 

[Dav1d]

I was thinking about Dunkley: who are the other players since, say 2000, that have won a flag in their first year after being drafted? Must be a short list

Selwood and Rioli?

 

[TimlinOfficial]

Selwood and Rioli?

Those are the only two that really spring to mind, yeah... rather handy company I would have thought

 

[perro_loco]

Collins is a jet, but it will take him time (even beyond next year being the second year him being on our list) for him to develop his style of play to our team style of play.

Basically his style of play is to beat his man in a one-on-one battle, if that bloke is a full forward. He beats them when the ball hits the air, and he can stop them on the lead using crafty body positioning even if he's not the quickest. Basically he's a old-fashioned FB.

Sadly our team is the complete opposite where we play a hyper-modern style involving team defence, zoning off, and understanding that all 6 defenders have to be able to run and spread offensively when we win the ball and understand structures relating to teammates. It's basically the antithesis of the lockdown style that Collins plays. Thankfully in our clubs wise assessment through interviews when we drafted him, we determined him to be a highly malleable individual in understanding structures and positioning, otherwise we wouldn't have drafted him.

Remember for Dandenong if was Collins taking the best forwards and Weitering reading the play and zoning off players. But I get the feeling given an investment into Collins long-term, once he really hits his strides in understanding that structural, zoning, positioning element to his game (and it could take 4-5 years of play at both VFL and AFL level) he really could become a premier key defender in the competition.

Weitering was drafted number 1 because he had an innate ability to read the play and know when to zone off/when to stick to his man like almost no other 17/18 year old in the modern professional draft era. But there's almost no comparison for a player of his type, so we don't have any reference point in the past to see if a player like him has even more scope for that aspect of his game to improve.

What we do know, however, that drafting 17 year olds on the premise of how they defend through rolling zones or how they understand team defences is very difficult, very very difficult. 1) Because junior footy actually bans rolling zones and some elements of team defence - ie a maximum of 12 players zoning up in kick-ins (so your basic 3-4-5 zone that forwards engage in, but your defensive unit of 6 is actually legally forced to man up and not allowed to engage in a full 18-man press that Hawthorn made the AFL norm in 2008 and everybody has followed since), and players are informally ordered not to crowd the ball and engage in heavy presses at stoppages etc. And 2) because the element of understanding structures, presses, zoning in defence takes a hell of a long time, and it's unpredictable to determine who has an aptitutde for learning that in their 20's when they're 17/18. Consider Roberts, Hamling, Biggs, Boyd, Morris, Wood, Johannisen - all are famously low draft picks and people have mentioned it on this board, but it's also worth looking at draft analysis - basically the reason that they went so low in the draft is because whilst they all had the ability to engage strongly in team defence, you can't really tell that at U/18 level.

I understand why they do it at U/18 level - you want to the success of a team to be the sum of its parts, the parts being the raw talent of the players, in order to help develop individuals and let draft watchers better assess the offensive quality of individuals. But basically that gives you no opportunity to assess how these juniors have an understanding of playing in these rolling zones etc. In fact, the very argument that players like Boyd were able to be re-tooled as a defender because in a team defence style he's not competing against anyone - because he's not competing against those who have been taught a team defence style as juniors, because nobody has been. But it means that when Bevo wants to engage in a team defence style, he's teaching the players from scratch.

So this brings us back to Collins. Basically because he's never had to play a heavy team defence/rolling zone/pressing/zoning off style of play, it's going to take us time to develop that in his game. But given his strong one-on-one abilities, it's a good starting point. Given that he's ten times the physical one-on-one defender that Fletcher Roberts is, he only has to understand our structures about 80% of the quality of Roberts to take his place in the team. And given Bevo's success etc in re-tooling players like Boyd as defenders, he's going to do a good job of it.

For example, and I know it's not much to go on, but take his 1 game at AFL level this year. Certianly looked up to it from a purely defensive role and did as much as you can hope from an 18 year old key defender from that perspective, but the offensive side and the pace of the game seemed too much for him. I remember seeing him stick to his man like glue too often and not zone off to provide the extra number, and he simply didn't really know where to run and spread from an offensive point of view (only 4 disposals from 73% game time - even Roberts who hardly touches the ball tends to get double that, and would play a similar role to Collins in the team, gets double that).

Wow, that ended up being longer than I thought. And will likely be buried given the pace of this thread!

Great analysis. Thanks!

 

[Mattdougie]

The **** can you be upset? We've already done what none of us thought possible. Everything else is gravy.

Rubbish mate

We won so now we just give up?

Hawks are trying to improve as are cats.

I'm greedy now I want more not settle for what we just won let's push while we are hot

 

[timtamWB]

I was thinking about Dunkley: who are the other players since, say 2000, that have won a flag in their first year after being drafted? Must be a short list

Jarryd Blair did it as well.

 

[immortalmike]

Rubbish mate

We won so now we just give up?

Hawks are trying to improve as are cats.

I'm greedy now I want more not settle for what we just won let's push while we are hot

Didn't say we should give up. Just said we shouldn't be upset.

 

[Mattdougie]

Didn't say we should give up. Just said we shouldn't be upset.

Meek sorry mate I'd be very upset if we did nothing other than resign some depth players and bring Cloke in.

We have cap room let's make a move or two

 

[immortalmike]

I've watched the replay most days since, I'm plenty excited. I don't get the "Who cares? We won the flag!" calls I've seen though. I care. I want another. I want a ******* dynasty. I want to prevent Griff and the Plastic Fantastics getting any. I want to rule this competition with an iron fist so that in 50 years people ask "Hawthorn? Oh you mean that team that won a couple right before the Bulldogs ruined the competition?".

Do you respect and believe in those who played a part in giving you that replay to watch?
If yes, then maybe a quiet off season (if that is their plan) is in the best interests of achieving your vision as opposed to some bullshit where we blow our wad just to have an "exciting" trade period.

 

[Shagzz]

Eddie Betts was also lazy and apparently had bad off field habits, but now looks like an absolute steal for the Crows.

Here are Eddie stats in his last season at Carlton compared to Motlops this year (remember Motlop is 2 years younger here, Eddie was 27 when he went to the Crows):

I'm not decided on him, but just thought it's an interesting comparison since his value is probably at it's lowest right now, just like Eddie's was when the Crows got him...

DO NOT WANT! Like hell we are trading a bloke in that will skewer our free kick differential!

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Do you respect and believe in those who played a part in giving you that replay to watch?
If yes, then maybe a quiet off season (if that is their plan) is in the best interests of achieving your vision as opposed to some bullshit where we blow our wad just to have an "exciting" trade period.

Oh calm down I'm not saying we should go nuts and make a bunch of crazy trades. Jesus ****ing christ you're reactionary.

 

[immortalmike]

Meek sorry mate I'd be very upset if we did nothing other than resign some depth players and bring Cloke in.

We have cap room let's make a move or two

And that's ridiculous. Last year we signed some depth, added Suckling and a pick downgrade. Then won a flag.

 

[Bemoreboyddog]

So Pickett to Carlton hey? So, Marchbank, Stewart, Pickett and one more for Blues first two picks?

Christ they're predictable.

 

[immortalmike]

Oh calm down I'm not saying we should go nuts and make a bunch of crazy trades. Jesus ******* christ you're reactionary.

Dude you're at a ten when I'm at a two. Relax, I'm discussing my problem with your logic, not insulting your family.

 

[Dav1d]

I remember last years trade period when Geelong got Dangerfield and they were going to win this years flag.