List Mgmt. Trade & Draft Discussion 2023 post season - Picks Reid,30,40,49,66 (Bush league)

[Lore]

Hello Eagles fans!

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Spoiler: 2023 Draft Order

Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order, aka Future Picks

Spoiler: Blue Tick Rumours

Keys you may like to sticky this post & move it to the start of the thread (so the sticky post doesn't rotate if a post is deleted before it), or copy it to your draft thread if you have one.

 

[BartBart]

Not that one.

Our natural 2nd pick wont be till 28!

Yeah - the 2nd pick in my nightmare was the 2nd pick we got for pick 1. Was unclear if there was anything else in the deal we received.

 

[pantskyle]

Can’t believe Shark Farts is even less tech savvy than me.

Haha this reminds me of the old podcast days and I legit thought his name was Dark Sharts.

 

[Obeanie1]

Again. 6th is likely to be 7th with bid for walter.

10th likely to be 14 with bids for Walters, read, Rogers and Croft according to the latest Twomey mock.

Just don’t rate that sort of level given the top 3 of most drafts are elite.

Who would you pick next draft?

 

[Obeanie1]

Salient point.

1st stop: briztoon
2nd: BF North board
3rd: Sam McClure's forehead
4th: Tim Gossage for the opposite opinion

5th Ask Barrett if we are too boring still.

Geez Barrett is a knob, chucking a tanti cos we havent traded pick 1 to his beloved Kangas.

 

[ghostbat12]

Haha this reminds me of the old podcast days and I legit thought his name was Dark Sharts.

Very graphic

 

[pantskyle]

Very graphic

You've seen his posting.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

I love the fact that Brizkent is advocating splitting top end picks. Less this year and more next year if I read his explanations correctly. I might not have read it perfectly the first time which is possibly why I am so grateful for the repeated explanations.

Let us look at the Lion's list and see why they might have done so well.

1. They rorted the system with Daniher and the FA. They put a contract together for the Drug Rats to get to get band 1 compensation and then changed the contract later that year to reduce the $ per year and lengthen the years which in all likelihood would have got the Drug Rats end of round 1 and likely they match. Do you think Dodoro was in on that rort?

2. They rorted the system with Gunston who was a UFA and in order to not revoke the NotStay compensation, the gave the Hawks some go quietly late pick. Not against the rules but morally wrong.

3. They got the best player in the draft in Ashcroft as a Father/Son deal at pick 2 while GWS picked the 5th or later best player at 1 to make him and the club feel good about climbing up the board to get someone very average. Lions also got another F/S rising star nominee in Fletcher. I think that is called being kissed three times on the old fellah.

4. In 2016 when armed with pick 2, GWS did Brisbane a massive favour in targeting McGrath as a high need. GWS were so full of great midfielders on massive contracts that they needed a half back flanker to balance the team and got a hard on for Andy. So desperately that they gave up a later first rounder to get from 2 to 3. Ever luckier for Brisbane was the ego of Dodoro who did not want to be seen to be giving away the golden ticket to the new boys. Let's be clear, McCluggage had been seen as the best in his cohort for months and every club except the Drug Rats knew it. GWS could afford being selective so list balance was more important. Imagine what Dodoro would have knocked back from moving from 1 to 2? At least 1 first round pick and it might have meant that Dodoro would not have needed to send 2 first round picks to GWS for Dylan Shiel

9

Dylan Shiel

Age

31

Ht

182cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

24.6

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

12.2

5star

M

3.1

3star

T

3.9

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

23.4

5star

K

13.6

5star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.2

2star

T

3.4

4star

CL

6.4

5star

D

19.8

5star

K

8.4

4star

HB

11.4

5star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.6

4star

CL

3.8

5star

(9 and 14). So that mistake cost Essendon 3 first round picks. Anyway, Lions got McCluggage and Berry out of that deal.

Can the above be considered splitting a high end pick or is it splitting your sides laughing at the stupidity of Essendon?


5. 5 Academy picks that non-Qld/NSW teams cannot get. These players were Andrews, Himmelberg, Payne, Colman and Zorko (slightly different rules). Payne helped get them to the GF but was injured - I think he did enough to suggest it helped the Lions.

6. Port have had a habit of underpaying present players and overpaying for free agents. A toxic captain that they did well to exit out of the club and again kissed on the old fellah with an end of R1 compensation. Funny how a club funded by the AFL finishing with the wooded spoon gets a favourable FA pick.

7. Knowing they have Ashcroft II coming in 2024, they can already start shaping their 2023 draft hand an be happy with late picks.

So in all of the Lion's moves, I am not really sure how they are pertinent to our situation.


Other top end draft decisions -
- 2018 with a really great top end draft they traded out of the Rozee (5) and then the Ben King

34

Ben King

Age

24

Ht

202cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

2.2

2star

M

3.5

4star

T

0.5

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

7.5

2star

K

5.6

2star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.3

1star

G

1.5

5star

D

6.8

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

0.2

3star

G

1.0

4star

(6) picks to land Neale.
- 2017 they missed the chance to split in 2018 when faced with a very average Raynor (but to be fair he was favourite to be pick 1) when and a split would have been desirable. Not sure if it was on offer but Carlton had 3 and 10 and Saints had 7 and 8. Not saying who was taken at that pick were right but depth in the draft would have been worthwhile splitting. To be fair, they picked up Zac Bailey

33

Zac Bailey

Age

25

Ht

181cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.7

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.9

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.2

4star

CL

0.9

3star

D

12.9

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

5.6

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.4

3star

CL

0.7

3star

D

13.4

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

6.8

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.8

5star

CL

0.6

3star

and Starcevich in late R1 picks that year. Just imagine if they had of ended up with Brayshaw, Oscar Allen

12

Oscar Allen

Age

25

Ht

196cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.8

2star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.1

4star

No current season stats available

D

8.6

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

2.8

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.0

4star

G

1.2

4star

, Bailey and Starcevich out of that draft!!
- 2015 Josh Schacke was a bust and the Lions got sucked into the Ï will continue my father's legacy" story.


So none of these really help us now. The absence of an real academy means we cannot trade in points which is such a huge advantage to the northern clubs.


What are our options for getting better in a shorter time?

In 2022 when we traded out of pick 2 last year, we had the mummy's boys not wanting to leave and a very even dozen or so. It made sense to split and we did well.

With 2023, we have had offers for the Harley ticket and the Norf beggar bowl picks are a joke. Hawks have come up with the best offer but early days. I expect Norf to come up with a better offer but not 2 and 3 which is why we will not split.

Being a better WA option that Fremantle. Thanks to Pirate Feather Bell, we are ahead of the Violet Crumbles and should continue to be. I expect Brockman to be the start of a steady stream of talent returning home wanting to be Eagles.

We now have a mid season draft and getting Culley and Maric feel like we have already got 2 extra R2 players. Not expecting A Grade but seeing genuine 100 plus games in Maric and hopefully the same for Culley. I can see us getting another early pick in 2024 mid season draft.

Knowing more about the local players in their draft years. We seem to have some success with Ginbey and Hewett. With some luck, Don Pyke comes in and repairs relationships with the WAFL clubs.

Salary Cap. Eagles and Essendon are the only 2 who have not put the EBA increase trigger in majority of contracts. This hurt in Covid days but will come back and be a great assistance in future years. There will be loads of agents wanting to bring their players to the club as we will be able to pay more.

Loyalty - we have an extremely good retention history. Forget Judd (who delivered a GF, Normie and Brownlow and we got a great return). I have no doubt that the retention will continue to be high.

The last 2 years have been a great start to the rebuild. I see us getting another good haul in 2023 and 2024 and we will stat to climb quickly.


Oh and the other good thing - we have the confidence to just take Reid.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

I am less convinced Norf will do a deal for pick 1.

Here is what I would do if I was Rawlings:

Start position - picks 2, 3 15, 17, 18 and 57 plus all of next year picks.

Talent naturally available at those 5 would be
2 McKercher
3 Duursma
15 17 19 3 of Delean, Charlie Edwards, Will Green, Schoenmaker, Hardeman, DeMattia

So Rawlings should manage the draft in light of list needs and talent ranking.

Melbourne are keen to get to pick 3 for McKercher or Duursma. Last thing they need is Caddy at 6 and I hear they are keen to rise up and not just for pick 1.

1st trade - 6 and 11 for 3

Cats have already said they will look at splitting 8. Offer 17 and 18 and be prepared to give 15 and 18 with something in the future coming back.

2nd trade - 8 for 17 and 18 or worse case 15 and 18.

Go to the draft with 2, 6, 8, 11, 15/17 plus 57 and all of next year picks and possibly F4 from Cats

With those picks
2 = McKercher
6 = Curtin or Sanders
8 = O'Sullivan
11 = Murphy
15/17 = Delean or Charlie Edwards or Will Green


Those 5 would be much better than
2 McKercher
3 Duursma
15 17 19 3 of Delean, Charlie Edwards, Will Green, Schoenmaker, Hardeman, DeMattia


The Angry Ant has proven he likes to get his talls early and Norf are really light on for talls.

 

[pantskyle]

^ has had a sip of magic potion.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

You better brace yourself

NM will offer 2, 15 and 17/18 on draft night and will accepted

Have WCE_phil killed if this eventuates

But sir that's not...

Do as I say!

 

[Goroyals22]

Isn't his problem that like everyone on our list he hasn't had massive stretches of being healthy?

We've cut plenty from our list this year, taking a chance he can have a good preseason and be competitive for spots doesn't hurt us list wise.

He has played 34 wafl games plus 6 afl games the last three years and doesn’t count any games he missed being the travelling emergency… at anytime in the last two years he should have been given an extended run but he isn’t picked even when in form….

He has his fanboys including Sumich but we could get a lot better player than him to sit on the rookie list

 

[Peptide Pig]

I really don't want us to get English. He'll turn 28 in his first season for us. He'll play 2 seasons of quality not dissimilar from the 2023 season at most before deteriorating. Already as injury-prone as they come.

Yes, AA in 2023, but mostly due to minimal competition for the role.

No doubt we'd pay him $8m over 6 years or something ridiculous if we pursue him.

View attachment 1837957 One solid year, nothing else.

Year	GM	DI	GL	BH	HO
2017​	2​	7​			5.5​
2018​	7​	13​	0.14​	0.29​	13.86​
2019​	20​	13.2​	0.4​	0.5​	19.1​
2020​	18​	13.44​	0.44​	0.61​	15.94​
2021​	22​	13.18​	0.86​	0.68​	15.5​
2022​	16​	18.06​	0.69​	0.56​	23.69​
2023​	23​	19.13​	0.7​	0.17​	31.17​

I’m not super keen either. Definitely not for the 1.1M+ which has been rumored. If the dogs spend all their cap on Naughton, JUH and Smith (if he stays) and we could get English for 850k then maybe.. given we will have cap space and he is FA.

English is basically a 207cm link up midfielder. His ruck craft is average but he marks and gets plenty of the footy, similar to Grundy when he was good. I’d rather a bash and crash Briggs or Darcy type but options are limited. If Barnett comes on or we draft another ruck then maybe Flynn can be the bash and crash guy for a few years while we address other needs.

I wouldn’t say English is injury prone though going off his games played in that table, pretty durable really. Braydon Preuss’ games record will show what an injury prone ruck look likes.. or Nic Nat’s last couple of years

 

[Wooshaaaa]

WCE_phil

Thoughts on Charlie Edwards and his finish to the year which was pretty impressive. Ave 23 disposals and a goal at Coates league in the last 6-7 games, could he make it to our 2nd pick probably pick 28 at the start of round 2?

Also you were pretty big on Delean during the middle part of the year thoughts on him at seasons end?

I watched him live a few times. This kid will be something.

On Pixel 6 Pro using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[dinnaz]

For those draft watchers- can you shed a little bit of light on ZZ.

Was watching a little bit of his highlights- he seems a bit like a more aggressive, less skilled rotham. He seems far too short to be playing ruck at AFL level. Where do you see him fitting in at the next level?

Rotham has his detractors but had a few clubs asking the question over the summer, the Lions were one for example.

Full Back. Played there for WA in the Champs and was solid enough. Nothing really stands out about him but should be a decent late option for a KPD

 

[Phas]

I love the fact that Brizkent is advocating splitting top end picks. Less this year and more next year if I read his explanations correctly. I might not have read it perfectly the first time which is possibly why I am so grateful for the repeated explanations.

Let us look at the Lion's list and see why they might have done so well.

1. They rorted the system with Daniher and the FA. They put a contract together for the Drug Rats to get to get band 1 compensation and then changed the contract later that year to reduce the $ per year and lengthen the years which in all likelihood would have got the Drug Rats end of round 1 and likely they match. Do you think Dodoro was in on that rort?

2. They rorted the system with Gunston who was a UFA and in order to not revoke the NotStay compensation, the gave the Hawks some go quietly late pick. Not against the rules but morally wrong.

3. They got the best player in the draft in Ashcroft as a Father/Son deal at pick 2 while GWS picked the 5th or later best player at 1 to make him and the club feel good about climbing up the board to get someone very average. Lions also got another F/S rising star nominee in Fletcher. I think that is called being kissed three times on the old fellah.

4. In 2016 when armed with pick 2, GWS did Brisbane a massive favour in targeting McGrath as a high need. GWS were so full of great midfielders on massive contracts that they needed a half back flanker to balance the team and got a hard on for Andy. So desperately that they gave up a later first rounder to get from 2 to 3. Ever luckier for Brisbane was the ego of Dodoro who did not want to be seen to be giving away the golden ticket to the new boys. Let's be clear, McCluggage had been seen as the best in his cohort for months and every club except the Drug Rats knew it. GWS could afford being selective so list balance was more important. Imagine what Dodoro would have knocked back from moving from 1 to 2? At least 1 first round pick and it might have meant that Dodoro would not have needed to send 2 first round picks to GWS for Dylan Shiel (9 and 14). So that mistake cost Essendon 3 first round picks. Anyway, Lions got McCluggage and Berry out of that deal.

Can the above be considered splitting a high end pick or is it splitting your sides laughing at the stupidity of Essendon?


5. 5 Academy picks that non-Qld/NSW teams cannot get. These players were Andrews, Himmelberg, Payne, Colman and Zorko (slightly different rules). Payne helped get them to the GF but was injured - I think he did enough to suggest it helped the Lions.

6. Port have had a habit of underpaying present players and overpaying for free agents. A toxic captain that they did well to exit out of the club and again kissed on the old fellah with an end of R1 compensation. Funny how a club funded by the AFL finishing with the wooded spoon gets a favourable FA pick.

7. Knowing they have Ashcroft II coming in 2024, they can already start shaping their 2023 draft hand an be happy with late picks.

So in all of the Lion's moves, I am not really sure how they are pertinent to our situation.


Other top end draft decisions -
- 2018 with a really great top end draft they traded out of the Rozee (5) and then the Ben King (6) picks to land Neale.
- 2017 they missed the chance to split in 2018 when faced with a very average Raynor (but to be fair he was favourite to be pick 1) when and a split would have been desirable. Not sure if it was on offer but Carlton had 3 and 10 and Saints had 7 and 8. Not saying who was taken at that pick were right but depth in the draft would have been worthwhile splitting. To be fair, they picked up Zac Bailey and Starcevich in late R1 picks that year. Just imagine if they had of ended up with Brayshaw, Oscar Allen, Bailey and Starcevich out of that draft!!
- 2015 Josh Schacke was a bust and the Lions got sucked into the Ï will continue my father's legacy" story.


So none of these really help us now. The absence of an real academy means we cannot trade in points which is such a huge advantage to the northern clubs.


What are our options for getting better in a shorter time?

In 2022 when we traded out of pick 2 last year, we had the mummy's boys not wanting to leave and a very even dozen or so. It made sense to split and we did well.

With 2023, we have had offers for the Harley ticket and the Norf beggar bowl picks are a joke. Hawks have come up with the best offer but early days. I expect Norf to come up with a better offer but not 2 and 3 which is why we will not split.

Being a better WA option that Fremantle. Thanks to Pirate Feather Bell, we are ahead of the Violet Crumbles and should continue to be. I expect Brockman to be the start of a steady stream of talent returning home wanting to be Eagles.

We now have a mid season draft and getting Culley and Maric feel like we have already got 2 extra R2 players. Not expecting A Grade but seeing genuine 100 plus games in Maric and hopefully the same for Culley. I can see us getting another early pick in 2024 mid season draft.

Knowing more about the local players in their draft years. We seem to have some success with Ginbey and Hewett. With some luck, Don Pyke comes in and repairs relationships with the WAFL clubs.

Salary Cap. Eagles and Essendon are the only 2 who have not put the EBA increase trigger in majority of contracts. This hurt in Covid days but will come back and be a great assistance in future years. There will be loads of agents wanting to bring their players to the club as we will be able to pay more.

Loyalty - we have an extremely good retention history. Forget Judd (who delivered a GF, Normie and Brownlow and we got a great return). I have no doubt that the retention will continue to be high.

The last 2 years have been a great start to the rebuild. I see us getting another good haul in 2023 and 2024 and we will stat to climb quickly.


Oh and the other good thing - we have the confidence to just take Reid.

I am less convinced Norf will do a deal for pick 1.

Here is what I would do if I was Rawlings:

Start position - picks 2, 3 15, 17, 18 and 57 plus all of next year picks.

Talent naturally available at those 5 would be
2 McKercher
3 Duursma
15 17 19 3 of Delean, Charlie Edwards, Will Green, Schoenmaker, Hardeman, DeMattia

So Rawlings should manage the draft in light of list needs and talent ranking.

Melbourne are keen to get to pick 3 for McKercher or Duursma. Last thing they need is Caddy at 6 and I hear they are keen to rise up and not just for pick 1.

1st trade - 6 and 11 for 3

Cats have already said they will look at splitting 8. Offer 17 and 18 and be prepared to give 15 and 18 with something in the future coming back.

2nd trade - 8 for 17 and 18 or worse case 15 and 18.

Go to the draft with 2, 6, 8, 11, 15/17 plus 57 and all of next year picks and possibly F4 from Cats

With those picks
2 = McKercher
6 = Curtin or Sanders
8 = O'Sullivan
11 = Murphy
15/17 = Delean or Charlie Edwards or Will Green


Those 5 would be much better than
2 McKercher
3 Duursma
15 17 19 3 of Delean, Charlie Edwards, Will Green, Schoenmaker, Hardeman, DeMattia


The Angry Ant has proven he likes to get his talls early and Norf are really light on for talls.

 

[ZergMinion]

Have WCE_phil killed if this eventuates

But sir that's not...

Do as I say!

You should probably at least get your minions to kill the right Phill...

 

[jesterwester]

Full Back. Played there for WA in the Champs and was solid enough. Nothing really stands out about him but should be a decent late option for a KPD

Thanks- appreciate the reply.

He does seem athletic and has some aggression which are good traits. Have read he’s a latecomer to footy, but he seems from the videos I’ve seen to be a late draft rookie- some have him top 30/40. So I was curious if there was something else that was pushing him into that sphere, other than a weaker draft.

 

[Truckosaurus]

Thanks- appreciate the reply.

He does seem athletic and has some aggression which are good traits. Have read he’s a latecomer to footy, but he seems from the videos I’ve seen to be a late draft rookie- some have him top 30/40. So I was curious if there was something else that was pushing him into that sphere, other than a weaker draft.

Quick and a good leap on him.

 

[dinnaz]

English is also 90% staying

Good

 

[Wedgetailed Westerner]

Just take Reid!!!!

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

You should probably at least get your minions to kill the right Phill...

 

[dinnaz]

If we end up holding those late picks intact

You'll be de-listing them in 3 seasons after blowing them on speculative choices?

Cos we would

 

[dinnaz]

So the blokes has three years already, the coach doesn’t rate him at all otherwise he would have played him regularly the past two years but we are so desperate to hamstring ourselves to him for another year…

Again dumb list management.

Is on par with any other good state league players aged 21.
Definitely could have gone either way but 1 more season gives us a chance and at worst he's a solid body for depth in 2024

 

[Schtinker]

You should probably at least get your minions to kill the right Phill...

We come in peace.

 

[WCE_phil]

WCE_phil

Thoughts on Charlie Edwards and his finish to the year which was pretty impressive. Ave 23 disposals and a goal at Coates league in the last 6-7 games, could he make it to our 2nd pick probably pick 28 at the start of round 2?

Also you were pretty big on Delean during the middle part of the year thoughts on him at seasons end?

Charlie Edwards I have at 15 on my board atm and Delean is inside the 20 discounting academy and FS.