List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency - Fred 11

[A Bit Dusty]

I mean it's not that crazy. I wouldn't do it but it's not totally unhinged. We're largely okay with 6 + 18 for 2.
Then it's 10 + 11 for pick 2 next year.
Roos aren't making some miraculous rise next year they're a shit truck outside their midfield group.

We could possibly get the Demons F1st through the Bombers with pick 20 and that might be a Top 10 pick anyway.

 

[UpTheGutz]

Yes yes I know their relative values might be seen by some as vastly different, but if so then so should be the price.

Crows would probably need to delist to take > 2 picks, but what price No.4 vs No.2? I guess North might be a more motivated seller, which factors in.

Presume it’s not 50% off, but a significant discount?

 

[Coach_Required]

This time last week West Coast fans were melting.

Good times

 

[THE_GUN]

The only 2 players i have as priority in the top 10 are FOS / LALOR and we will get 1 of them guaranteed
if the 2nd costs too much then im happy to trade #6 back if there is a longer term gain and an offer too good to refuse

I dont get attached to a number of the pick and more concentrated on the players in this draft that have the tools to make it
Hotton , Hannaford , Berry , Travaglia , Shannahan

 

[UpTheGutz]

This time last week West Coast fans were melting.

Good times

Club had better release a DVD of these trade & draft periods. Perfect Christmas gift

 

[THE THIN MAN]

Word of the day is quipu

 

[THE_GUN]

This time last week West Coast fans were melting.

Good times

They still are
Clarke , Baker & Mini are public enemy's 1 , 2 & 3 in perf

 

[Coach_Required]

Club had better release a DVD of these trade & draft periods. Perfect Christmas gift

Would love to see a behind the scenes footage

 

[UpTheGutz]

The only 2 players i have as priority in the top 10 are FOS / LALOR and we will get 1 of them guaranteed
if the 2nd costs too much then im happy to trade #6 back if there is a longer term gain and an offer too good to refuse

I dont get attached to a number of the pick and more concentrated on the players in this draft that have the tools to make it
Hotton , Hannaford , Berry , Travaglia , Shannahan

Having our worst ever year, trading 4 multiple premiership players & then taking a single top 10 pick in an excellent draft really doesn’t float my boat I have to say

 

[THE THIN MAN]

Club had better release a DVD of these trade & draft periods. Perfect Christmas gift

 

[Calcium Man]

Yes yes I know their relative values might be seen by some as vastly different, but if so then so should be the price.

Crows would probably need to delist to take > 2 picks, but what price No.4 vs No.2? I guess North might be a more motivated seller, which factors in.

Presume it’s not 50% off, but a significant discount?

11 + 23 is probably our most plausible offer… which seems overs unless we rank Langford/Jagga as our clear 2nd choice.

 

[THE_GUN]

Having our worst ever year, trading 4 multiple premiership players & then taking a single top 10 pick in an excellent draft really doesn’t float my boat I have to say

You see this is where its interesting
an excellent draft doesnt mean elite top 10 players. there will be 2-3 that may become elite but this draft is excellent because of the depth of talent and not the level of talent in the top 10.

Seen so many draft watchers and jurno's including cal mention that the top end is not as good as years gone past and there are no guaranteed Sheezel , Reid , JHF , McKercher type guns there that are obvious but the draft will contain more 200 game players selected in the top 35 than past years and to me that creams building the depth of quality and having 5 picks between 10-20 would do that and perhaps 1 elite amongst them . The pick #1 we have a good chance to get 1 elite
Dont get me wrong id #2 for #6 + #18 is the deal im all for it but not #6 +#10.

We might end up with FOS / LALOR + Smillie/Langford at #1 & #6 if we rate tham and thats fine also but
but what if we only rate 5 players in the top 10 range and all 5 are gone by pick #6 what do we do ?
Reach for our next rated that would go around 10-15 ? when we already have 2 picks in that range and could get another 2 more . Just need to take blinkers off and open eyes to what other options may present

 

[Hank Heavenly]

10 + 18 for 2 is pretty much spot on...

10 + 18 = pick three from a point value pov, but considering North backed themself into a corner with only 2 then 62,
10,18,62 is a much better result for them.

And for us, it only really means that we get 7 kids instead of 8, and if the kid we want at 10 is still there at 11, then no harm done there either.

 

[THE_GUN]

10 + 18 for 2 is pretty much spot on...

10 + 18 = pick three from a point value pov, but considering North backed themself into a corner with only 2 then 62,
10,18,62 is a much better result for them.

And for us, it only really means that we get 7 kids instead of 8, and if the kid we want at 10 is still there at 11, then no harm done there either.

North wont trade pick #2 unless it involves a pick #6
they want to slide 3-4 picks and get the extra pick

Our offer will start with #6 + #23 and work down and settle for #6 + #18 if it gets done

 

[Barunga Bullet]

I have seen #6 & #11 for Norths pick #2
and They are also of the belief that their F1 is worth #10 + #18

So #2 + F1 for
#6 , #10 , #11 , #18

They live in another universe to every other team supporters

To be fair, there's only 3 of them

 

[Hank Heavenly]

North wont trade pick #2 unless it involves a pick #6
they want to slide 3-4 picks and get the extra pick

Our offer will start with #6 + #23 and work down and settle for #6 + #18 if it gets done

then we walk away if it involves 6...

seriously giving away a strong postion here.

 

[THE_GUN]

then we walk away if it involves 6...

seriously giving away a strong postion here.

That depends on who we want and how badly we want him

My walk away is anything more than #6 + #18
But Blair might be #6 + #23

who knows it all depends on the players we want and rate

 

[Bird Man]

What about picks 10 and 18 for the crows pick 4 or melbounres pick 5?

 

[Tonythetiger]

What about GWS 15, 16 and 21 for 6? Might need to send 24 with it...

Then can do 10 and 15 for 2?

6 feels super valuable right now. Would need to give up a lot for it and not really keen on giving up heaps for Pick 2 when it's more North that would benefit most from splitting it. We have enough picks so could just work with what we have and then 23/24 can hopefully be exchanged for future first rounders on the night.

 

[Noidnadroj]

From here I really hope we don't trade picks. There are good players everywhere top 25. I am certainly not a draft expert but giving up 2 first rounders for pick 2 is not worth it in my view. Unless someone can educate me on why we should do this?

Not sure we should swap, but in very simple terms here are the stats for respective draft picks:

Pick 2: average games = 182. Average coaches votes = 162. Average Brownlow votes = 45. % of pick-2’s to play 200+ games = 54%. 1 in every 2.2 become AA.

Picks 6-10: 127 games. 75 coaches votes. 17 Brownlow votes. 27% get to 200+. 1 in every 5.4 become AA.

Picks 11-20: 116 games. 66 coaches votes. 16 Brownlow votes. 22% get to 200+. 1 in every 6.3 become AA.

So based on averages pick-2 is likely to be a significantly better player than anyone 6-10. In fact the gap from 2 to 6-10 is far greater than the gap from 6-10 to 11-20.

So a pick-2 is about triple the chance of being an AA at some stage of their career than someone taken 11-20.

Having said all that … with all I know this draft I’d only be happy pairing 6 with 18 or below for pick-2. I wouldn’t pair 6 with 10 or 11 for pick-2.

And I actually wouldn’t trade 10 & 11 for 2 in this draft either…. unless it came with an F2 back from North.

I’ll be very disappointed if we only take 5 x kids this draft and turn lots of picks into futures or bundle them up.. this draft seems insane.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Woodstock]

I don’t want us giving up 6, I’d love picks 1,2 & 6.

10+11 for 2 plus a 4th rounder back is equal points value. I guess it depends where Nth believe the player they want will get drafted.

 

[Tonythetiger]

We could well finish bottom next year so there's probably a gun mid we take there so don't think it's wise to overpay for Pick 2. We have positions all over the ground we need to fill.

 

[UpTheGutz]

If our worst case scenario is we take someone we really like at 6 & then someone we are delighted was available at 18, that’s a very strong negotiation position.

Harvard calls it a BATNA.

Did that sound a bit tosser-ish? Apologies if so but Blair’s done that course. He could probably teach it tbh

 

[voorhees]

power delisted Q.Narkle after only a year..
We dodged a bullet by not selecting him when he trained with us last year.

 

[4tune8]

If our worst case scenario is we take someone we really like at 6 & then someone we are delighted was available at 18, that’s a very strong negotiation position.

Harvard calls it a BATNA.

Did that sound a bit tosser-ish? Apologies if so but Blair’s done that course. He could probably teach it tbh

It could very well be the reason why we don't trade up for 2, North are selling into a limited market and the most well heeled buyer is the Tigers. If the trade doesn't suit then we just go to the draft.