List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency Part 10

[SplintWhisky]

can we take ashcroft no 1?

I think if there is no trade done then it would force them into deep deficit for next year. Would be fun to do just to see if the AFL sticks to their guns and ends up stripping a club of most of their picks for the next year.

 

[Groupie_]

if yarran wasnt a druggie we probably 5 peat

 

[SplintWhisky]

I honesty don't want pick two.

The talk forever has been how even the first round is. If that's the case the clubs with the top six picks might conceivable have six different players in mind as to who they consider six best. If we keep six (assuming we get it) we might well end up with a player we ranked second anyhow or at worst the third. To give away picks 6 and 10 (worst case I know) is insanity. Even 6 and a later pick seems completely unnecessary to me.

If we have too many picks then simply trade them into next years draft. We aren't Gold Coast where we can just fritter them away.

I always look at it from a risk point of view. With 2 players at 6 and 10 there are two chances we have that one will go the distance. We would look mighty stupid if we gave those two picks away and pick 2 turns into an Ibbotson (the Freo guy) and never gets on the park due to injuries.

 

[SplintWhisky]

if yarran wasnt a druggie we probably 5 peat

Probably would of taken Shorts spot and done better. **** me imagine a fit Yarran and Houli running down the wings from half back.

 

[voorhees]

Look at where we are. We are ground zero of a rebuild. It’s not the direction we should go.

Carlton will want first round draft picks and we cannot under any circumstances give any we have up.

you got it..
big NO in handing over our draft capital to Carlton for a average player.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I always look at it from a risk point of view. With 2 players at 6 and 10 there are two chances we have that one will go the distance. We would look mighty stupid if we gave those two picks away and pick 2 turns into an Ibbotson (the Freo guy) and never gets on the park due to injuries.

You would also look mighty stupid if pick 2 turns into another Dustin Martin and you took the next Jayden Stephenson and Jake Melksham with picks 6 & 10. So this(fear of looking foolish) is not a reason to not do that trade. There may be other reasons not to do the trade but your reasoning needs to be value based, always. And it is so dependant on who is likely to be available at which pick, and how you rate them, and what level of confidence you have in being correct.

A somewhat simlar deal involved Melbourne giving up pick 2(Josh Kelly GWS) & pick 20(end up being Darcy Gardiner at 22) for Dom Tyson and pick 9(Salem) and pick 53(ended up pick 57, Jayden Hunt.)

Out of all the players in that deal Josh Kelly is by far the best and most valuable player. No doubt if we searched hard enough we could find deals that worked the other way. But it just comes down to how much you value the players you can get from the respective picks.

 

[SplintWhisky]

You would also look mighty stupid if pick 2 turns into another Dustin Martin and you took the next Jayden Stephenson and Jake Melksham with picks 6 & 10. So this(fear of looking foolish) is not a reason to not do that trade. There may be other reasons not to do the trade but your reasoning needs to be value based, always. And it is so dependant on who is likely to be available at which pick, and how you rate them, and what level of confidence you have in being correct.

A somewhat simlar deal involved Melbourne giving up pick 2(Josh Kelly GWS) & pick 20(end up being Darcy Gardiner at 22) for Dom Tyson and pick 9(Salem) and pick 53(ended up pick 57, Jayden Hunt.)

Out of all the players in that deal Josh Kelly is by far the best and most valuable player. No doubt if we searched hard enough we could find deals that worked the other way. But it just comes down to how much you value the players you can get from the respective picks.

More bites at the cherry are always a better thing in the long term. You may end up missing on some players like Martin or Kelly, but you may also miss out on the Trengroves, Watts, Dow, Morabito, Gumbleton etc. I would posit that if you were to take more picks in the draft, the average level of the team will be better.

 

[tigs2010]

More bites at the cherry are always a better thing in the long term. You may end up missing on some players like Martin or Kelly, but you may also miss out on the Trengroves, Watts, Dow, Ibbotson, Gumbleton etc. I would posit that if you were to take more picks in the draft, the average level of the team will be better.

Ibbotson? Played nearly 200 games as a 2nd rounder.

Morabito?

 

[SplintWhisky]

Ibbotson? Played nearly 200 games as a 2nd rounder.

Morabito?

Legend, updated the post.

 

[Profop]

Yeah I feel like people are getting hung up on how deep the draft is and therefore equating that a top ten pick is equal to a top four pick which is not my understanding of this (or any) draft

 

[Profop]

More bites at the cherry are always a better thing in the long term. You may end up missing on some players like Martin or Kelly, but you may also miss out on the Trengroves, Watts, Dow, Morabito, Gumbleton etc. I would posit that if you were to take more picks in the draft, the average level of the team will be better.

The actual numbers show that it’s actually quite close when it comes to trading multiple top twenty picks for a top three or so selections

This is just average games played you could make the argument that those games of the higher picks are of a better quality (hence the Brownlow vote numbers) than the lower selections which would make even more of a coin flip

 

[SplintWhisky]

The actual numbers show that it’s actually quite close when it comes to trading multiple top twenty picks for a top three or so selections

This is just average games played you could make the argument that those games of the higher picks are of a better quality (hence the Brownlow vote numbers) than the lower selections which would make even more of a coin flip

View attachment 2112364

God that is an annoying table. Would love to have the top 10 to be individual numbers then go 11-15, 16-20 etc.

 

[matt_y106]

No doubt that he (Tom Green) is well invested now.

But who'd have thought three years ago that Bailey Smith, Christian Petracca and Daniel Rioli would be getting talked about in the trade winds? The latter is a father/son ffs.

And even if the lure of playing for a massive MCG-based club (with some family heritage) is not a major drawcard, the simple fact is that we can pay him way more than the Giants

Daniel Rioli isn’t a father/son…


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[blaisee]

The actual numbers show that it’s actually quite close when it comes to trading multiple top twenty picks for a top three or so selections

This is just average games played you could make the argument that those games of the higher picks are of a better quality (hence the Brownlow vote numbers) than the lower selections which would make even more of a coin flip

View attachment 2112364

great content, thank you for sharing

 

[Tiges1229]

if yarran wasnt a druggie we probably 5 peat

Woukd have been epic , still can’t believe we got the spoon again fmd. Embarrassing

 

[guruisatiger]

richie cunningham is a mad Richmond fan

might have reached out to the club

Prefer his sister joanie

 

[SouthernStripes]

if yarran wasnt a druggie we probably 5 peat

Wonder where he ended up? Last thing I saw on him he had that altercation with all the cops after merhing out and stealing a car or something. Peak Yarran would have looked so good at the tigers - gotta be one of the dirtiest trade moves by Carlton selling us a proper druggie. Total campaigner move

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Daniel Rioli isn’t a father/son…


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Yeah, of course. Tiger family royalty. Got my Rioli's mixed up.

 

[swallace]

Hard to imagine it happening but Dons front loaded Zac Merrett, don’t do TPP adjusting contracts & now he’s being offered prob twice what he’s on for the next 3 years. And (reportedly) he’s not saying a definite no.

Prepaying contracts does have its risks

 

[tigs2010]

Hard to imagine it happening but Dons front loaded Zac Merrett, don’t do TPP adjusting contracts & now he’s being offered prob twice what he’s on for the next 3 years. And (reportedly) he’s not saying a definite no.

Prepaying contracts does have its risks

Definitely. Unless it's someone like Taranto/Hopper who we are willing to lose down the line it's a massive risk

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Hard to imagine it happening but Dons front loaded Zac Merrett, don’t do TPP adjusting contracts & now he’s being offered prob twice what he’s on for the next 3 years. And (reportedly) he’s not saying a definite no.

Prepaying contracts does have its risks

Jack Martin an absolute perfect example of that. Got massive money his first year so the Blues could get him in the pre-season draft, then when he dropped to $350k, you guessed it, his performances dropped right off. And if someone was playing well like Merrett, of course other clubs are going to come in offering more. Ablett Jnr another example when at the Suns.

 

[Bojangles17]

He’s young enough to be the midfielder we bring in for more senior depth. Cost will possibly be too high unless Carlton are looking to clear his contract from their cap. He’s not on big money though so that probably doesn’t make sense unless it was heavily backloaded.

If blues were giving him up as a salary dump then yes absolutely, he is very injury prone , tho with our sc resources we should be able to get him on the park

 

[Bojangles17]

You would also look mighty stupid if pick 2 turns into another Dustin Martin and you took the next Jayden Stephenson and Jake Melksham with picks 6 & 10. So this(fear of looking foolish) is not a reason to not do that trade. There may be other reasons not to do the trade but your reasoning needs to be value based, always. And it is so dependant on who is likely to be available at which pick, and how you rate them, and what level of confidence you have in being correct.

A somewhat simlar deal involved Melbourne giving up pick 2(Josh Kelly GWS) & pick 20(end up being Darcy Gardiner at 22) for Dom Tyson and pick 9(Salem) and pick 53(ended up pick 57, Jayden Hunt.)

Out of all the players in that deal Josh Kelly is by far the best and most valuable player. No doubt if we searched hard enough we could find deals that worked the other way. But it just comes down to how much you value the players you can get from the respective picks.

Grossly overrated Kelly , he’s contributed squat to winning what , Salem was a key contributor in a flag year only injuries have dampened his influence

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Grossly overrated Kelly , he’s contributed squat to winning what , Salem was a key contributor in a flag year only injuries have dampened his influence

To give you an idea of the comparison between Kelly and Salem...

Kelly averages 1.8 coaches votes per game over his career, Salem averages 0.6.

Kelly's career average player rating is 12.4. Salem's is 8.3.

Salem's finals player ratings...2.1, 7.9, 6.7, 10.1, 15.1, 16.1, 7.7, 1.8, 6.6, 7.1. Average 8.1.

Kelly's finals player ratings....9.3, 13.0, 3.7, 10.6, 10.4, -1.3, 16.7, 14.8, 8.8, 7.9, 13.0, 16.7, 22.0, 15.5, 13.0, 9.5, 7.4. Average 11.

Kelly has 25 coaches votes in his last 12 finals(before that unavailable) Salem has 8 coaches votes from 10 finals.

Salem is a decent half back but Kelly is a big level above him.

 

[Groupie_]

Wonder where he ended up? Last thing I saw on him he had that altercation with all the cops after merhing out and stealing a car or something. Peak Yarran would have looked so good at the tigers - gotta be one of the dirtiest trade moves by Carlton selling us a proper druggie. Total campaigner move

he came out of gaol a few years ago