List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency Part 10

[Bojangles17]

2010 was Jack and Rance’s 4th season, Cotch’s 2nd, and Dusty’s 1st.
We won a flag in Jack’s and Rance’s 10th season. Cotch’s 8th and Dusty’s 7th.
It’s a long road ahead if we consider we have none of the equivalent players on our kids.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

I was referring to when we started competing for finals , that was 2012 when we just missed out, winning a flag is dependent on getting so much right , that’s further est thing , the plan this far out is contending and like I pointed out it only took a few years

 

[GhostofJimJess]

We haven’t had a dynasty since 2020. We deserve a pick

Technically we were in a dynasty until we weren’t, which was the moment the ARC turned over Lynch’s goal in the 2022 Elim Final.

So it’s only two years ago

 

[copthat]

Likely an unpopular opinion but with Baker and Co. likely leaving I think it's important we look to bring in some early or mid 20s players in the next couple of years, as long as they are not at the expense of good picks. Not only will those guys leave a hole but Prestia, Lynch, Vlastuin, Kamdyn, Broad and maybe even Nank are close to finishing. It's a lot of AFL hardened bodies to lose over a short time.

Getting our picks right is most important but I believe staying competitive comes in very close behind that. And by staying competitive I mean finishing 15th > 12th > 11th rather than 18th > 18th > 17th. IMO you are at risk of staying at rock bottom for longer these days with the player movement landscape as it is. Free Agency, players routinely breaking contract and heaps more cash getting thrown around means players have more choice in getting to contenders and getting away from basket cases. If you can show you're competitive however and are building in the right direction, you can use those same things to your advantage to lure and keep players.

 

[richoatthedisco]

M Y advice to the strategists , don’t get too smart and lose top 20 pics to trade down . The pathetic 19 vote brownlow haul served to highlight what I reported by r8 that we were at lowest point in our history. This means we need a shit ton of incoming talent not 2-3 ,,,that’s f all . I want 6-7 top 20 selections on our list ,,,,fast . That’s how we ll get momentum our way. 2 good players will push shit up hill . Many hands make light work , it’s that simple
Oh and get Shanahan ,

You still largely get your generational mids in the top-3. With our likely haul it will be worth trading two of our picks for pick 2.

You’d be better comparing our position to Richmond circa 2009/2010 . After we get in our draft haul

Even prior to 2009 we already had Jack, Sheds, Cotch, Rance and Lids on the list. (And Jackson.) (And Jake King.) (And Andy Collins.)

 

[guruisatiger]

2010 was Jack and Rance’s 4th season, Cotch’s 2nd, and Dusty’s 1st.
We won a flag in Jack’s and Rance’s 10th season. Cotch’s 8th and

Rance and cotch were both taken in 2007 draft
Jack 2006 draft
Dusty 2009 draft
We won a flag in jacks 11th year
In cotch and rances 10th year
And dustys 7th year

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I was referring to when we started competing for finals , that was 2012 when we just missed out, winning a flag is dependent on getting so much right , that’s further est thing , the plan this far out is contending and like I pointed out it only took a few years

And it can be sped up these days due to free agency. It is not like there will be no player left on our list from 2024 who is capable of playing in our next flag. Up to half the team could be there already.

If you look at recent examples of teams who realised they were on the wrong track and decided to go to the draft, Melbourne and Carlton are the two clearest examples of teams who have risen after doing so. For the sake of brevity, let's just have a look at Melbourne, whilst remembering that Carlton ripped it up in 2015 and were top four 8 years later in 2023.

Melbourne

2012 - the list contains only Gawn and McDonald who would go on to play in their flag 9 years later. It also had Jones who would be an important leader on the road to the flag, and Frawley, Howe, and Sylvia who I think were able to be released for something significant in return. Our list should be in at least that position now, with Balta, Gibcus, Brown, Maurice Rioli, Campbell and others looking more than decent chances to be long term winners for us. And we are about to release players(Bolton, D Rioli, Baker, maybe Graham) who will immediately return more than the players Melbourne released along their whole journey to the flag(I think I am correct in saying that, if not, it wouldn't be far short.)

During the next 3 off-seasons they added Hogan, Viney, Salem, Harmes, Petracca, Brayshaw, Bullen, Oliver. That was more or less the end of their very high end draft picks until they got to their one-off 17th placed finish in 2019, which enabled them to add Jackson, Pickett, Rivers. No doubt we will throw in a season like that along the journey to create a similar opportunity. But they got 8 ultimately valuable players in the 2012-14 drafts, 7 of those were significant players who came from top 30 picks. This is roughly what we should be doing in the next 3 drafts, but for us, so much of it should be front loaded into the first of the 3 drafts, putting us a little bit ahead.

They traded for the following players along the way, or took them as free agents:

2012 Dawes, Rodan, Byrnes
2013 Cross, Riley, Tyson, Vince
2014 Newton, J Garlett, Lumumba, Frost
2015 Melksham, Kennedy, Bugg
2016 Lewis, Hibberd, McKenna
2017 Lever, Balic
2018 May, Kolodjashnij
2019 Tomlinson, Langdon
2020 Brown

2021 Premiership and clearly had the list to go on with it but certain things seem to have gone wrong within the club.

An important part of this comparison is Melbourne had to bring in older players from more successful clubs to show leadership. We already have that type of player in situ, Prestia, Nankervis, Lynch, Broad, Vlastuin, Short and Hopper and Taranto. Another way we should be slightly ahead.

Melbourne had their first top 4 finish in 2018, about 6 years on from where we are now. But a load of our talent should be able to be brought in year 1, and we probably have more long term talent already on our list than Melbourne had in 2012.

It is definitely not unrealistic to believe if we draft and trade solidly we will be pushing for top 4 by 2030 or even a bit earlier and in proper contention in the years after that.

 

[Bojangles17]

And it can be sped up these days due to free agency. It is not like there will be no player left on our list from 2024 who is capable of playing in our next flag. Up to half the team could be there already.

If you look at recent examples of teams who realised they were on the wrong track and decided to go to the draft, Melbourne and Carlton are the two clearest examples of teams who have risen after doing so. For the sake of brevity, let's just have a look at Melbourne, whilst remembering that Carlton ripped it up in 2015 and were top four 8 years later in 2023.

Melbourne

2012 - the list contains only Gawn and McDonald who would go on to play in their flag 9 years later. It also had Jones who would be an important leader on the road to the flag, and Frawley, Howe, and Sylvia who I think were able to be released for something significant in return. Our list should be in at least that position now, with Balta, Gibcus, Brown, Maurice Rioli, Campbell and others looking more than decent chances to be long term winners for us. And we are about to release players(Bolton, D Rioli, Baker, maybe Graham) who will immediately return more than the players Melbourne released along their whole journey to the flag(I think I am correct in saying that, if not, it wouldn't be far short.)

During the next 3 off-seasons they added Hogan, Viney, Salem, Harmes, Petracca, Brayshaw, Bullen, Oliver. That was more or less the end of their very high end draft picks until they got to their one-off 17th placed finish in 2019, which enabled them to add Jackson, Pickett, Rivers. No doubt we will throw in a season like that along the journey to create a similar opportunity. But they got 8 ultimately valuable players in the 2012-14 drafts, 7 of those were significant players who came from top 30 picks. This is roughly what we should be doing in the next 3 drafts, but for us, so much of it should be front loaded into the first of the 3 drafts, putting us a little bit ahead.

They traded for the following players along the way, or took them as free agents:

2012 Dawes, Rodan, Byrnes
2013 Cross, Riley, Tyson, Vince
2014 Newton, J Garlett, Lumumba, Frost
2015 Melksham, Kennedy, Bugg
2016 Lewis, Hibberd, McKenna
2017 Lever, Balic
2018 May, Kolodjashnij
2019 Tomlinson, Langdon
2020 Brown

2021 Premiership and clearly had the list to go on with it but certain things seem to have gone wrong within the club.

An important part of this comparison is Melbourne had to bring in older players from more successful clubs to show leadership. We already have that type of player in situ, Prestia, Nankervis, Lynch, Broad, Vlastuin, Short and Hopper and Taranto. Another way we should be slightly ahead.

Melbourne had their first top 4 finish in 2018, about 6 years on from where we are now. But a load of our talent should be able to be brought in year 1, and we probably have more long term talent already on our list than Melbourne had in 2012.

It is definitely not unrealistic to believe if we draft and trade solidly we will be pushing for top 4 by 2030 or even a bit earlier and in proper contention in the years after that.

The astute also see that the gap between the best and the rest has diminished significantly, due to inflationary effect of FA top teams just cannot warehouse depth ,,,
Eg gws look set to lose 3 required players
It’s why b2b are almost unheard of now and we see teams with sec rate line ups eg Coll jag a flag
It all suggests if you can ace your list management u can be contending pretty quickly , eg hawthorn

 

[tigersnag]

SDK will be a blue next year
He and weitering will form an excellent
1 -2 pairing in their back line..it will be part of a 6 club trade
Sdk - Carlton
Bailey Smith to cats
Blues 2025 first round pick to Suns
Jack lukocius to Port power
Sam Houston to Saints
Saints pick 10( battle compensation) to dogs a few little tid bits might have to be thrown in but this will be 90% of the trade done

Bullshit. Did a dopey bloke on a golf course tell you that?

 

[Charlie Pannam]

Trade bell on SEN today

Sam Edmund

This is listeners message

Butters planning to return home end of next season

Sam’s mail

Liam Baker

7

Liam Baker

Age

26

Ht

173cm

Wt

72kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.7

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

7.9

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

2.6

4star

MG

222.2

3star

D

14.6

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

7.9

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

1.8

3star

MG

191.9

3star

D

14.4

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

8.2

5star

M

1.6

2star

T

1.8

4star

MG

224.2

4star

still undecided waiting for coach to be appointed at WC


Lukosius on a backended contract, over 1 mill for next 2 years , going to Port


Blues big on Houston and favs to land him. Future picks likely for this trade


SDK - no chance he’ll be traded

 

[Karp3_dm]

Trade bell on SEN today

Sam Edmund

This is listeners message

Butters planning to return home end of next season

Sam’s mail

Liam Baker still undecided waiting for coach to be appointed at WC


Lukosius on a backended contract, over 1 mill for next 2 years , going to Port


Blues big on Houston and favs to land him. Future picks likely for this trade


SDK - no chance he’ll be traded

Where is home for Butters?

 

[tigersnag]

Trade bell on SEN today

Sam Edmund

This is listeners message

Butters planning to return home end of next season

Sam’s mail

Liam Baker still undecided waiting for coach to be appointed at WC


Lukosius on a backended contract, over 1 mill for next 2 years , going to Port


Blues big on Houston and favs to land him. Future picks likely for this trade


SDK - no chance he’ll be traded

I think it's fairly safe to say that if Houston was headed to Carlton - then their pick 11 would have to be used.

Why would Port let them keep that and roll the dice in a weaker draft for a pick that would likely be (after academy and father and son picks) in the 20's. Absolutely zero chance that happens

 

[Ctl]

Where is home for Butters?

 

[tigersnag]

Good to hear that the Pies are keen on Perryman.
I'd take Peatling over him any day of the week. Seen a lot of GWS game. Perryman turns it over, a lot.

 

[Nostradumbass]

Liam Baker still undecided waiting for coach to be appointed at WC

**** me you'd think this bloke is prime Chris Judd

 

[docko911]

I think it's fairly safe to say that if Houston was headed to Carlton - then their pick 11 would have to be used.

Why would Port let them keep that and roll the dice in a weaker draft for a pick that would likely be (after academy and father and son picks) in the 20's. Absolutely zero chance that happens

Agree. I reckon Port will want to get what they need for Lukosius and a first round pick this year.

 

[Charlie Pannam]

**** me you'd think this bloke is prime Chris Judd

Surely he ends up at WC?
Under mini

 

[partycorolla]

Absolutely laughable how quickly people think we will bounce back. It’s going to take a long time until we are remotely competitive again.

Define remotely competitive?

The odds are we won't play 42 players again next season.

The odds are we will win more than 2 games.

We were competitive in most games in 2024. Couldn't compete for long enough but that happens.

Not enough uninjured players to learn and train a new gameplan by a new coach.

It's never as good or as bad as it seems.

 

[Charlie Pannam]

Where is home for Butters?

Cats were mentioned, surprise, surprise!!!
Probably bs, it’s just listeners rumours

 

[Charlie Pannam]

I think it's fairly safe to say that if Houston was headed to Carlton - then their pick 11 would have to be used.

Why would Port let them keep that and roll the dice in a weaker draft for a pick that would likely be (after academy and father and son picks) in the 20's. Absolutely zero chance that happens

You’d think so.
I’m not up to date with the changes to future pick trading , they were talking today about trading 2 years in advance. I’m not sure what the deal is there!?

 

[partycorolla]

2010 was Jack and Rance’s 4th season, Cotch’s 2nd, and Dusty’s 1st.
We won a flag in Jack’s and Rance’s 10th season. Cotch’s 8th and Dusty’s 7th.
It’s a long road ahead if we consider we have none of the equivalent players on our kids.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Oh in that case we should pack up and fold... not bother posting anything until 2030 and lean into destructive self-harming habits like excessive drinking, drug use and gambling should we?

Why do people (not directed at any one single poster) spend energy to come on and whinge about crap. It's probably self protective to guard against their own hope but it's counter-intuitive because if they don't have any hope, then posting on here is a complete waste of time. Go and do something else with your life.

So those that do, probably have some hope but don't want to have those hopes made real out-loud because despite witnessing the second best Tiger run in history, they remember the 80s-mid 90s when we were an actual rabble on and off the field or some of the poor years in between 1997-2010.

Who cares if it's a long road or a short load. We have no impact on it at all, so buckle up and enjoy the ride. Hopefully it's quicker than some fear. I went through 37 years and I'll do it again if I have to. Would prefer not to but what will be will be.

Go Tigers. Thank goodness they are in a far stronger financial position than in the laste 80s when we were days away from folding. We came out of that to be successful so it's fair to say we have a stronger base to build from now.

 

[Bojangles17]

Where is home for Butters?

Darley bacchus marsh

 

[Bojangles17]

Likely an unpopular opinion but with Baker and Co. likely leaving I think it's important we look to bring in some early or mid 20s players in the next couple of years, as long as they are not at the expense of good picks. Not only will those guys leave a hole but Prestia, Lynch, Vlastuin, Kamdyn, Broad and maybe even Nank are close to finishing. It's a lot of AFL hardened bodies to lose over a short time.

Getting our picks right is most important but I believe staying competitive comes in very close behind that. And by staying competitive I mean finishing 15th > 12th > 11th rather than 18th > 18th > 17th. IMO you are at risk of staying at rock bottom for longer these days with the player movement landscape as it is. Free Agency, players routinely breaking contract and heaps more cash getting thrown around means players have more choice in getting to contenders and getting away from basket cases. If you can show you're competitive however and are building in the right direction, you can use those same things to your advantage to lure and keep players.

I think we will trade in a couple , hoping big time we get peatling , looks a real talent

 

[Muddiemoose]

Darley bacchus marsh

Puts Geelong right in the frame if he makes the move, will probably have the cap space as well with Danger towards the end

 

[Coach_Required]

Trade bell on SEN today

Sam Edmund

This is listeners message

Butters planning to return home end of next season

Sam’s mail

Liam Baker still undecided waiting for coach to be appointed at WC


Lukosius on a backended contract, over 1 mill for next 2 years , going to Port


Blues big on Houston and favs to land him. Future picks likely for this trade


SDK - no chance he’ll be traded

No way I'd be trading future first rounders, those kinds of trades always backfire and you are left with no first rounder after having a shit year.

On second thoughts, hope Carlton do get him then.

 

[_RT_]

Rubbish.

Crawford, Croad, Williams, Bateman, Brown, Hodge, Osborne, Ladson, Mitchell and Sewell were all drafted before they “bottomed out” (they finished second last) in 2004. That’s nearly half their 22 in their 2008 premiership side.

They had been building that list since the 90s/early 00s and shot up the ladder after drafting Roughead, Franklin, Lewis and Young which is a generational draft haul.

The foundation was clearly there prior to 2004. Who on our list is our Shane Crawford? Sam Mitchell? Luke Hodge? Brad Sewell? We don’t have any. And if we did they won’t be there when we challenge again.

You’re vastly underestimating the existing talent on Hawks list prior to 2004 and it’s far superior to what we have.

Compare apples with apples.

You said no club had ever bottomed out and rebounded quickly. Hawthorn did as they went 2nd last 2004 & 3rd last 2005 got to add some top end talent to a list that had some experienced players and promising youth.

They got Hodge Mitchell & Ladson as 2001 draftees that only came to Hawthorn after they traded out Croad and McPharlin to get the picks that would land Hodge and Mitchell. 2021 we added 5 kids inside the top 30, granted not the same quality as the 3 Hawks, but all promising youth.

We currently hold pick 1, will be trading out similar quality players that Hawthorn did, to bring in top rated young talent in what could be a similar style super draft with the quality and depth this year and could also get another crop in 2025 as well. Which is similar to what Hawthorn did in 2004 & 2005 when they 'bottomed out'.

So who is to say that the likes of Nankervis Taranto Vlastuin Broad Hopper Short & Balta can't be our version of Crawford, Croad, Williams, Bateman, Osborne and Sewell as experienced senior players who with an injection of talent over a few years get an unlikely shot at a flag?

When you look at it we're similarly positioned to Hawthorn in 2004 and are about to add some high end talent to the list over the next 2 years. Again not saying we'll repeat what Hawthorn did, but I don't believe it's as ridiculous as people may think as we sit here today. Need to get things right in terms of the draft and any experienced players we bring in as well.