UpTheGutz
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“Neale had 0 flags so your point is invalid”.
That always lands
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AFLW 2024 - Round 4 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency Part 10
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That always lands
WTF?
The only reason we think 13 is fair is because we have zero leverage. Throwing in a 3rd rounder is ludicrous. If Baker was under contract, then we wouldnt be letting him go for pick 13.
And... one more point. I dont care if we end up with a thousand picks, we shouldnt be throwing any away to sweeten any deal. The more picks we have, the more clubs will come begging for them to either:
a. collect points
b. jump the queue to get a player they want
c. get into this years draft and sell out of next years
Mark my words... we should not give ANY picks away in the trade period. Not one! Given the depth of this draft, our phone will be ringing before EVERY selection on draft night. And watch what is thrown at us just to jump 1-2 spots.
Every club will be ringing and saying... "we want player X, what will it take for you not to select him?".
Richmond - either tell em to cough, or watch them pony up.
We could end up with a draft haul for next year similar to this years. And this will be happening right the way through to the third and fourth rounds. Remember... you can trade picks once the trade period is closed, so l wouldnt even be trading with Brisbane until after the trade period. The longer we make them wait, the better for us. And if they try to collect the points from another club... we'll just pick Ashcroft first and make them pay even more.
The only thing we should be doing during trade week is collecting the best AND as many draft picks as possible. Even if we've got 25 picks... they'll be jizzing over us to get them on trade night.
not me kemo sahbee, those on that trade thread.
"Blair's too smart to **** up this opportunity." - Matt Clarke, to a mate of mine a few weeks ago.
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- Dec 20, 2023
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Everybody who thought we’d get pick 22 compo
I hear you. Although we have to remember that Baker and Bolton want to go to WA. The WA teams aren’t chasing them with big deals. It’s just a perfect coincidence that all these picks are with the WA teams.
Got to also take in account what the managers relationships with each clubs list manager is like too.
There’s still some more to play out here.
One thing to remember is that we can only take as many picks to draft night as we have list spots. I assume that all pick trading will be done by then to coincide with list lodgements.
There is, of course, live trading on draft night.
Personally Im not upset at all if Shai stays on.
Even if we were to get picks 9&17, they’ll possibly become picks 12&20. To me that isn’t enough value to let go of a legitimate match winner at 25 years old.
He can still very well be a massive piece to this clubs future.
Adding a O’Sullivan(1)and Langford(6) to Bolton and Taranto makes a very nice core Midfield.
Get pick 10 for baker and you can throw in a Taj Hotton who could be as good as anyone in this draft.
Manage to snag pick 18 from Brisbane, and you could pick up a KP in Tauru or Whitlock.
If Gold Coast throw in an extra pick then we’ve got a couple more looks at a bit more talent.
Personally I would love to see Shai stay and become the player we’ve been dying to see him become.
Even if we were to get picks 9&17, they’ll possibly become picks 12&20. To me that isn’t enough value to let go of a legitimate match winner at 25 years old.
He can still very well be a massive piece to this clubs future.
Adding a O’Sullivan(1)and Langford(6) to Bolton and Taranto makes a very nice core Midfield.
Get pick 10 for baker and you can throw in a Taj Hotton who could be as good as anyone in this draft.
Manage to snag pick 18 from Brisbane, and you could pick up a KP in Tauru or Whitlock.
If Gold Coast throw in an extra pick then we’ve got a couple more looks at a bit more talent.
Personally I would love to see Shai stay and become the player we’ve been dying to see him become.
Won't happen, he has already checked out.
There’s been plenty of cases where players haven’t got what they’ve wanted and had to come back to the club.
To me picks 9&17 aren’t enough and I don’t see Fremantle getting much else together to make it happen.
They won’t chew into any picks for next year as they have Warner in their sights.
Freo won't back out of getting Bolton, he is good as gone.
- Sep 2, 2024
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How are you struggling so badly to wrap your head around this? It’s really not that complicated.
The 10 Hawthorn players I mentioned were much younger than the Richmond premiership players you just reeled off. They were the crop coming through and they topped up with Franklin, Roughead, C. Rioli, etc. via the draft. If you want to be pedantic and say they “bottomed out”, fine. We can do that. But there are certain extents to which a team can bottom out and ours currently is on the extreme end whereas Hawthorn’s was moderate.
We’re trying to draft a batch of players similar to the Hawthorn 10 as we don’t have anything remotely similar to that type of quality coming through. All the premiership players you listed (bar maybe Balta) will be retired by the time this next crop we draft hits their peak, so I have no idea why you keep mentioning them as they will not be part of our next premiership. The 10 Hawthorn players I mentioned were part of their next premiership. This is a very important detail that you keep overlooking. So not only was their existing quality before they “bottomed out” a million times better than ours, their age demographic was in the sweet spot.
We are starting from scratch. The Hawthorn team wasn’t as they had two Brownlow medalists, a 2 x Norm Smith medalist and other high quality players on their list coming through PRIOR to their “rebuild”. We. Do. Not. Have. That. Quality. Right. Now. Comprende?
As I said, we are North Melbourne 2022. Not Hawthorn 2004. Stop kidding yourself with this shit.
We are not North melbourne 2022 at all. We've still got half a team full of Premiership players, some of which we are about to trade out for king's ransoms, the rest of whom will act as strong leadership to our gun youngsters. North didn't have anything remotely like that and needed to go grovelling to the AFL to get a very strong suite of assistance to stop their wheels spinning.
I agree we are not as well stocked for certain prime movers as the Hawks were before 2004. But we are not starting from scratch at all. Nor are we starting from say Carlton's position in 2015 when they had only Cripps and Docherty of long term value on their list. We would likely have key defenders, hybrid defenders, most running defenders, wingers, and some, probably most of the small forwards we need on our list already. It is half a team. What is missing is the prime movers. Ruck(Hawks never had a really good one) key forwards(some of whom may already be there but that is speculative) and inside mids who can burst out of congestion and use the ball well.
Where Hawks took I think 3 rd 1 picks in 2004, we might be taking 7 in 2024. And we have free agency in our favour that they didn't have back then. So I think it is reasonable to say we are going to find it tough to contend within 4 years, but if we get things fairly right, we should be giving plenty of cheek not long after that.
Is there any real news with regards to trades for **** sakes?
UpTheGutz
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Which is a shame, for us.
Last year in 20 minutes we traded down from 35 to 38, then again from 38 to 40, took MacAuliffe, and for the privilege were paid picks that this year have a value of pick 26
- Sep 2, 2024
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In 2022, North had Simpkin, Larkey, LDU, Xerri, Zurhaar, Curtis, Scott and Powell. I have excluded JHF, McKay, Ziebell, Goldstein and any other players that will not be around when/if North challenge.
We will not have better long term prospects heading into 2025 than the bolded players listed above. Taranto, Hopper, Balta, Gibcus, Rioli Jr, Ross, etc. are not better. They are arguably substantially worse.
Unlike RT, at least you understand what I’m saying, but I feel you’re overrating the quality of our young players. They’ve barely shown anything at the highest level. Plus the positions you listed are the hardest to fill apart from ruck.
We have some meat and potatoes (albeit of very low quality). It’s going to be a long road back. North are 2-3 years ahead of us with their rebuild but I feel we’re coming from further back.
This talk of us being Hawthorn prior to Buddy and co joining is absolutely laughable.
Ha!
Yeah, it was fun to watch, the guy on the excel spreadsheet earnt his $ for sure.
Very astute by our guys, knowing that teams will need points this year, not something that's been done before, trendsetters again.
Not up with next years FS's or Academy players but I think that the GCS's might have a few that they'll have to acquire points for. No reason we can't do something similar, but maybe more with our early 2nd rnd picks.
Nah, that was always based on the potential contract offered, not his actual worth.
_RT_
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Yes they were much younger but they weren't the quality players they became later on in their careers, that's the point you keep ignoring.
How do you know for sure that none of our kids in years 1-3 can't become our Hodge or Mitchell? You can't yet you insist that we don't have any. Given you're able to tell the future with such clarity can I have the 2024 premiership and Tatts numbers for Saturday?
Not overlooking anything, I'm just not putting lines through players who have barely got their careers started. Hawthorn finished top 4 in 2001 and then finished 15th & 14th in 2004 & 2005. To get the likes of Hodge and Mitchell they had to trade out 2 early/mid 20 year old players to get those picks something you keep overlooking.
When Hawthorn won their 2008 flag they had Crawford and Jacobs retire Dew retired a year later and Croad 2 years later. In between 2004 & 2007 they also had the likes of Barker Holland Lekkas Beaumont Dixon Smith Vandenberg also retire. Their 2008 flag was an anomaly and it took until 2013 for them to get back to the top.again,
2004 was when Hawthorn started their rebuild as that is when Clarkson came in and went the youth path by prioritising them over the older guys. Yze is pretty much at the same stage the main difference is that we've already put a bit of development in to the kids and will be bringing in a number of top end talent at the same time, whereas Hawthorn hit the jackpot by landing Franklin Roughead Lewis & Birchall.
We're nothing like North, our senior experience is much better than what North had, so their ability to mentor the kids should be a lot better and we shouldn't be struggling as much as they did and continue to do.
Possibly , a lot tho will depend on availability, we were at extremes in terms of what we could put on the park , with an avg 16 plus unavailable most weeks , teams with much stronger lists than our struggled when they had an injury list only half of ours . If we got ours down to no more than a handful then that alone will mean we put a more competitive outfit onto the parkWe could win more games next year than last year and still finish last.
The reality is NM and to a lesser extent WC are a couple of years into drafting elite talent, we are just starting,
And we’re losing 3 of our top 5-6 players.
Even if we have a good run with injury , it’s hard to see us getting above 17.
It’s not all doom and gloom though, as supporters we get to sit back and watch our kids from this draft and the next few drafts develop andbecome Premiership players post 2027
tigs2010
Pick 1...
I'll make Versailles eat a Groupie_ turd if any of our 2021-2023 crop become Hodge or Mitchell lol.
The fact you can't see the difference between us and North is hilarious. You use revisionist approaches to compare lists from yester-year to ours without considering how it was viewed at the time.
The massive differences have little to do with the lists themselves but you are too caught up in the players themselves to see it. The differences are in the clubs themselves. The DNA. The intangibles. North are a minnow club, always have been and probably always will be. The die is cast. Doesn't mean they can't succeed from time to time. The Hawks are now a team that wins GFs every 3-4years on average since 1960. They will just rebound quicker. It's the same reason the Saints seem to perennially struggle. Get close but can't get it done.
It's about belief of the club in itself, not the players' ability individually (or collectively). If you had put the Hawks list at the Saints, they wouldn't have made that same barnstorming run and the Hawks probably make a better fist with the Saints list.
They are just better at developing talent by and large over time.
Our success or otherwise has less to do with who we do or don't have but how we develop them and get them to work together. For many years we struggled with that. I'm confident the club is now a proper and more than comptetent club and they can handle this challenge unlike the club we were in the 80s, 90s and 2000's.
In 2017 we won a flag with a team no-one rated... including a lot of posters on here. Go and read the comments from 2016. If you asked then how far a team with Castagna, Butler, a solidly built kid drafted at 50, some mature-aged blond surfy-looking dude from WA, a back up Swans ruckman, an under-performed mid/mid-forward who was on his third crack, a slow lefty who kicked sky balls into the forward line would go... you'd have been told they'd most likely miss the 8. When told their former best player was outm, you'd lock it in.
We aren't going to win the flag in 2025 and that isn't what I'm getting at but no-one 'knew' how good or bad we were going to be then and no-one 'knows' how quickly we will or won't bounce back. It could be 37 years or 3 years or 6 or anything in between. You think longer, good for you. Some think shorter, good for them.
You can have an opinion but that's all it is. Stop trying to mock other posters who don't agree with you. Everyone on here has the exact same insight you do - none or not much. We have thoughts, beliefs and theories... but that's all they are. If you doubt that, go back and read through 2016 again.
Not sure we had a top 3 pick in that time did we? So that rules out Hodge. Mitchell is the tougher one. Pick 36. Maybe Kane McCauliffe makes it. Hopefully not though... not worth anyone eating a Groupie turd
