Trade period / National Draft 2024

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[tigs2010]

Next level selling the farm .

I reckon Blair would even ask "are you sure?" if they offered that.

 

[Rocco sifreddi]

I reckon Blair would even ask "are you sure?" if they offered that.

He would be thinking they are playing some sort of twisted joke on him

 

[Meteoric Rise]

4 first rounders for Shai is absurd

You would let him go for picks likely to end up at 13, 16, 20? I would want more or keep him, he is a brilliant player.

 

[tigs2010]

You would let him go for picks likely to end up at 13, 16, 20? I would want more or keep him, he is a brilliant player.

No. If all those teams end up in finals I'd make Freo trade up before coming to us.

Or they can trade them into next year and try again.

 

[GoTigers2015]

You would let him go for picks likely to end up at 13, 16, 20? I would want more or keep him, he is a brilliant player.

AFL live ladder has Pies finishing 11th, Port 6th and Freo 5th - picks 8, 13, 14

 

[tigerfan1961]

Having pick 1 or as leverage will help our cause. Could make a serious case for Lombard being no.1 in the draft and any professional club was use that as leverage to help their draft hand. Same applies to Ashcroft.



Even that is disappointing. Blair should be sacked in that is all he can deliver.

Blair will get the best outcome possible, he generally does

 

[tigs2010]

AFL live ladder has Pies finishing 11th, Port 6th and Freo 5th - picks 8, 13, 14

Live ladder has us winning 2 more

 

[Morro]

AFL live ladder has Pies finishing 11th, Port 6th and Freo 5th - picks 8, 13, 14

In that case, I wonder if we would look at and or if WC would look at, pick 8 and Baker for pick 3 and 22?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

AFL live ladder has Pies finishing 11th, Port 6th and Freo 5th - picks 8, 13, 14

That sort of offer I think Richmond would take. But those picks will slide. Likely to end up 10, 16, 17 or something like that. I think Richmond would want all of that for Bolton. It is worth a bit more than pick 1 on the points value index.

So a lot depends upon where the teams actually finish and then how many insertions there are likely to be before you get to take the selections at the draft. Bolton to Fremantle could be like Brian Lake going to the Hawks in 2012, just the missing piece of a puzzle that turns potentially zero flags into multiple flags. Hawks got an incredibly good deal there but in hindsight, knowing what they know now, if Dogs put just about any conceivable price on Lake the Hawks would pay it. Lake was of course a lot older and probably out of contract.

For Richmond's part they need to realise the value of the player to the club they are trading with. And extract the absolute limit out of the deal, without leaving no value for Fremantle of course.

 

[_RT_]

It is better expressed as likely 4 picks between around 12 and 20. Just adding up the draft pick values on the index, that type of deal might need to be equalised a bit by 2 early second rounders rather than the one I suggested, or maybe it is just their 3 x 2024 rd 1 picks to us, but I would be wanting more than that if they are going to end up where it looks most likely, picks around 13, 16 and 20.

The deal needs to be substantially in our favour, because Bolton is contracted and a very uniquely talented player. Even with pick 1 you can't just find a guy like that. He has played what would normally be in full length matches 20 and 19 rated games in competitive finals, including a Grand Final, as a 21yo. To give a comparison, Collingwood fans are still going moist over Nick Daycare's 13.5 rated Grand Final in 2023 as a 20yo. Even this year he has a 26 rated game against the Swans and another one the week after that. This is one of those players where you are in a tight prelim and/or GF in the third term you are not thinking jeez we wish we still had all those late first round picks. He can straight out win you a game like that without the opposition having any way to stop him. He is tough, durable and can destroy opponents on the ground or in the air, or can provide big pressure if required(7 tackles and 16 pressure acts in the shortened 2020 GF.)

All of that is why Freo are specifically targetting Bolton. That, and knowing they are probably headed for the top 4 this year and have 3 x 2023 rd 1 picks and 1 x 2024 rd 1 picks to bargain with.

To give a comparison, Jeremy Cameron, who would be a miles easier matchup in a final, and has a very ordinary finals record(his best 2 finals from 15 finals don't rate as high in combination as Bolton's best 2 finals as a 21yo) was traded as a 27yo(roughly 2 years older than Bolton will be) for picks that ended up at 15, 18 and 25 at the draft, with picks that ended up at 32 & 35 going back to the Cats. And Cameron was a free agent where Bolton is long contracted and 2 years younger. We want a lot more than that. Bolton is younger, a better player and is contracted for years and all 3 elements should add a separate layer of value to that Cameron trade. Cameron went for draft points amounting to the value of pick 6. Tim Kelly on the back of 2 big finals as a 25yo went to Eagles for around the value of pick 2. But Kelly was out of contract. So we are in a position to ask for more than this for Bolton. At the end of the day, Fremantle need to make the deal attractive to Richmond. And they need to ask themselves what are they prepared to sacrifice to have a Shai Bolton on the paddock in a Fremantle jumper in the second half of a tight Preliminary or Grand Final. I am sticking to my 4 x rd 1 picks with maybe 1-2 early rd 2 picks back to make this deal happen.

When Cameron was traded he was a 2 time AA, a Coleman Medal winner, 9 time club leading goal kicker, a B&F winner, AFLPA best first year player winner and AFLCA best young player winner & proven KPF who had kicked 427 goals from 171 games. He was always going to attract a high price given that record and the fact that GWS were quite happy to match Geelongs bid, so they had to pay overs to get him across.

Now compare that to Bolton's achievements thus far: 2 x premiership winner, 1 x AA, a 3rd and 3 x 4th place in B&F with 155 goals from 128 games. There is no way anyone can suggest legitimately that Bolton is worth 4 R1 picks, 3 would be a great deal and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see us get just 2 R1 picks for Bolton.

Sure he is damaging when he is up and about, but when he isn't on, then he can look plain ordinary and you don't pay premium value for players like that.

 

[Morro]

When Cameron was traded he was a 2 time AA, a Coleman Medal winner, 9 time club leading goal kicker, a B&F winner, AFLPA best first year player winner and AFLCA best young player winner & proven KPF who had kicked 427 goals from 171 games. He was always going to attract a high price given that record and the fact that GWS were quite happy to match Geelongs bid, so they had to pay overs to get him across.

Now compare that to Bolton's achievements thus far: 2 x premiership winner, 1 x AA, a 3rd and 3 x 4th place in B&F with 155 goals from 128 games. There is no way anyone can suggest legitimately that Bolton is worth 4 R1 picks, 3 would be a great deal and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see us get just 2 R1 picks for Bolton.

Sure he is damaging when he is up and about, but when he isn't on, then he can look plain ordinary and you don't pay premium value for players like that.

I think Bolton's current contract status makes the scenarios completely different and creates a situation, where Freo have to over pay to make it happen.

 

[_RT_]

I think Bolton's current contract status makes the scenarios completely different and creates a situation, where Freo have to over pay to make it happen.

They'll need to over pay no doubt, if he wants to leave. The thing is people need to take the glasses off about the value of our players.

If the roles were reversed this place would be threatening to burn down Punt Road if we were trading out 3-4 R1 picks for 1 player. Look at how some still carry on about trading 3 R1 picks for Taranto and Hopper.

For mine I'd like to see a deal for Shai that was 2 R1 picks this year and either a R1 or R2 pick in 2025 and if we landed that we'd be doing well. Personally I expect it to be Fremantles best R1 picks this year and their own R1 pick in 2025.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

When Cameron was traded he was a 2 time AA, a Coleman Medal winner, 9 time club leading goal kicker, a B&F winner, AFLPA best first year player winner and AFLCA best young player winner & proven KPF who had kicked 427 goals from 171 games. He was always going to attract a high price given that record and the fact that GWS were quite happy to match Geelongs bid, so they had to pay overs to get him across.

Now compare that to Bolton's achievements thus far: 2 x premiership winner, 1 x AA, a 3rd and 3 x 4th place in B&F with 155 goals from 128 games. There is no way anyone can suggest legitimately that Bolton is worth 4 R1 picks, 3 would be a great deal and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see us get just 2 R1 picks for Bolton.

Sure he is damaging when he is up and about, but when he isn't on, then he can look plain ordinary and you don't pay premium value for players like that.

I differ on this. There are players who play at a high level and they have a high value, and rightly so. Jeremy Cameron is an example of that. But clubs who want to win flags are not necessarily looking for that. And if they are not trying to win flags, what are they trying to do?

If you are in a Grand Final, the game is near level in the 3rd term, the opposition star forward hasn't had a great impact so far. You are the Grand Final opponent. Who would you prefer that opposition star forward to be, Jeremy Cameron, or Shai Bolton? We can see from Cameron's finals record teams can normally cover him with a decent runner who has some height and is disciplined. Richmond would have had at least 2 players who could do that comfortably, Broad, and Grimes. Most strong teams will have at least one guy who can do it, Cameron is an average/weak contest player for his position so if you have a runner that keeps up with him he is not a great threat. Matching up on a Shai Bolton either in centre bounces or near goals or around half forward, is an entirely different proposition. Go through the finals teams, and think about who you would put on him in those positions at a time like that. Coleman Medals, AA's, club B & F's can mean exactly nothing in that situation in a big game. We see it year after year. Most teams just don't have a suitable player to match up on Bolton, maybe no teams do. And we saw what that can mean when Dustin Martin was in his prime. Opposition teams hopes destroyed in one final after the other, that would have been very different if they could spend a Broad or Grimes on stopping Dustin Martin. Bolton is not Martin, but for Martin in his prime in a similar trade with the clubs in similar positions, in hindsight you would be asking for multiple top 3 picks or no deal.

Fremantle knows this, and it would be precisely why they are after Bolton. And they will know they are not getting him for a bargain, they will have to pay. So they would have to come up with something that made Richmond want to release Bolton. I don't think 3 picks in the mid to late teens is enough for a player you can't find anywhere else who could win you big finals.

 

[Groupie_]

Go your hardest guys and girls

who dat

 

[Profop]

I’m really hoping for a Weaver - Jack Riewoldt type spray on here should we pick Smilie

Also hope he turns out a star like Jack did should it eventuate

 

[SunshineBoy]

Kangaroos rising with a bullet LOL, lets see where they are in 3 weeks after they play Sydney, Carlton and Geelong before that clash with us.

Somethings telling me we're finishing 17th. Loser of NM and WCE will finish last IMO.

Norf flag Favourites

 

[Deleted 190824218284]

I'm looking for a gun midfielder.
Contested beast.
6'4
X factor.

Gun mid
Contested beast
6'4
X factor.

 

[GoTigers2015]

 

[_RT_]

I differ on this. There are players who play at a high level and they have a high value, and rightly so. Jeremy Cameron is an example of that. But clubs who want to win flags are not necessarily looking for that. And if they are not trying to win flags, what are they trying to do?

If you are in a Grand Final, the game is near level in the 3rd term, the opposition star forward hasn't had a great impact so far. You are the Grand Final opponent. Who would you prefer that opposition star forward to be, Jeremy Cameron, or Shai Bolton? We can see from Cameron's finals record teams can normally cover him with a decent runner who has some height and is disciplined. Richmond would have had at least 2 players who could do that comfortably, Broad, and Grimes. Most strong teams will have at least one guy who can do it, Cameron is an average/weak contest player for his position so if you have a runner that keeps up with him he is not a great threat. Matching up on a Shai Bolton either in centre bounces or near goals or around half forward, is an entirely different proposition. Go through the finals teams, and think about who you would put on him in those positions at a time like that. Coleman Medals, AA's, club B & F's can mean exactly nothing in that situation in a big game. We see it year after year. Most teams just don't have a suitable player to match up on Bolton, maybe no teams do. And we saw what that can mean when Dustin Martin was in his prime. Opposition teams hopes destroyed in one final after the other, that would have been very different if they could spend a Broad or Grimes on stopping Dustin Martin. Bolton is not Martin, but for Martin in his prime in a similar trade with the clubs in similar positions, in hindsight you would be asking for multiple top 3 picks or no deal.

Fremantle knows this, and it would be precisely why they are after Bolton. And they will know they are not getting him for a bargain, they will have to pay. So they would have to come up with something that made Richmond want to release Bolton. I don't think 3 picks in the mid to late teens is enough for a player you can't find anywhere else who could win you big finals.

Again Bolton is the type that needs a lot to be going his way to have the type of influence you've used to boost his value.

In a lot of those finals he had the likes of Martin Lynch Jack up forward taking a lot of the focus away, in the middle he had Martin Cotchin
& Prestia that opposition sides focused on.

Since they have departed/declined in out put and the team has also dropped away so has Boltons consistency. He is much easier to negate and shut out of the game.

Like I said if we were the one offering up 3+ R1 picks for him there wouldn't be a single poster who'd make the deal.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Again Bolton is the type that needs a lot to be going his way to have the type of influence you've used to boost his value.

In a lot of those finals he had the likes of Martin Lynch Jack up forward taking a lot of the focus away, in the middle he had Martin Cotchin
& Prestia that opposition sides focused on.

Since they have departed/declined in out put and the team has also dropped away so has Boltons consistency. He is much easier to negate and shut out of the game.

Like I said if we were the one offering up 3+ R1 picks for him there wouldn't be a single poster who'd make the deal.

I disagree with that bolded part, strongly.

All he needs is everything not to go wrong around him, something he shares with just about every player in the competition who isn't a bull inside mid.

In 2022 Bolton was the 17th highest rated player in the AFL in a decent but not dominant team, as a 23yo.

In 2023 Bolton was the 19th highest rated player in the AFL in a team that was competitive but below average.

He was Richmond's highest and second highest(not far behind Taranto) coaches vote winner in those seasons. This would historically equate to B & F finishing positions and is what people mostly think of as a team's best player.

Imo it is just straight out wrong to say Bolton needs it all set up for him. He is a genuine star player, easily our most valuable player and is every chance to do untold damage in big games throughout his prime.

 

[DeseRigs]

I disagree with that bolded part, strongly.

All he needs is everything not to go wrong around him, something he shares with just about every player in the competition who isn't a bull inside mid.

In 2022 Bolton was the 17th highest rated player in the AFL in a decent but not dominant team, as a 23yo.

In 2023 Bolton was the 19th highest rated player in the AFL in a team that was competitive but below average.

He was Richmond's highest and second highest(not far behind Taranto) coaches vote winner in those seasons. This would historically equate to B & F finishing positions and is what people mostly think of as a team's best player.

Imo it is just straight out wrong to say Bolton needs it all set up for him. He is a genuine star player, easily our most valuable player and is every chance to do untold damage in big games throughout his prime.

100% in agreement. Not much went right last Saturday, yet Bolton kicks 4.3 and 16 touches.

 

[noobermensch]

Smillie was en fuego in the opening quarter with 12 disposals 4 clearances and a goal. He slowed down a touch but was still the best player on the ground through three quarters, before a strange fourth quarter in which he spent a lot of time on the bench and played deep in defense when on the field. Lets hope he hasn't picked up a knock ahead of the big Metro v Country game coming up this weekend.

 

[Tiger51]

Vic V WA under 16 live on Utube now

 

[Morro]

I’m really hoping for a Weaver - Jack Riewoldt type spray on here should we pick Smilie

Also hope he turns out a star like Jack did should it eventuate

richoatthedisco, you have been summoned.

 

[captain cotch 9]

Smillie looks a similar type to JHF from Port.