Trade period / National Draft 2024

[_RT_]

 

[Mr Magic]

Hypothetically.
Whilst we have so much WA trade bait, should we have a crack at Harley Reid?
We have
Pick 1 or 2
Bolton
Baker
F1, F2
I’m not advocating trading all these but possibly a substantial portion. If a Rioli trade is completed prior we could add the picks received as part of the offerings.
Thoughts?

no need, we are not in contention, get talent in a and provide a reason for Reid to want to come to us and we offer something for it then we might have a nexus creating a shift

 

[sregit]

You'd have to pay too much at this point given he has a 3 year deal (2 to go)

Even in 2 more years you’d have to pay top dollar. Also we will never have more trade bait.

 

[Dr Tigris]

Hypothetically.
Whilst we have so much WA trade bait, should we have a crack at Harley Reid?
We have
Pick 1 or 2
Bolton
Baker
F1, F2
I’m not advocating trading all these but possibly a substantial portion. If a Rioli trade is completed prior we could add the picks received as part of the offerings.
Thoughts?

I'd rather get a portfolio of picks and so a wide range of talent. We might be able to get 3 or 4 A grader and a few B+ out of this draft (if we get 8 or picks). And that leaves us positioned for a solid squad in one draft. Plus we can trade into 2025. So I'd rather go the route of a full squad than a lesser group + one super star.

Just IMHO

 

[Mr Magic]

I'd rather get a portfolio of picks and so a wide range of talent. We might be able to get 3 or 4 A grader and a few B+ out of this draft (if we get 8 or picks). And that leaves us positioned for a solid squad in one draft. Plus we can trade into 2025. So I'd rather go the route of a full squad than a lesser group + one super star.

Just IMHO

I am only interested in A grade potential, I never compromise on quality, if I see a chip, through to the keeper. Plenty of opportunities to get b, c grades here there, other years different ways, trades you name it

I am a A grade whore, I will sell my soul for quality

At this point in time, I have singled out 4 that I want in particular and then there are some others that would be nice to have but a lot can change with more form and development from the prospects and I am sure I have not seen them all just a few contenders and I am sure RFC are not thinking like I am so fear not, no would I reveal my most desirable at the moment and possibly not before the draft either

 

[tiger_tough]

So the points system stays the same for this year. That's big for us.

 

[sregit]

I am only interested in A grade potential, I never compromise on quality, if I see a chip, through to the keeper. Plenty of opportunities to get b, c grades here there, other years different ways, trades you name it

I am a A grade whore, I will sell my soul for quality

At this point in time, I have singled out 4 that I want in particular and then there are some others that would be nice to have but a lot can change with more form and development from the prospects and I am sure I have not seen them all just a few contenders and I am sure RFC are not thinking like I am so fear not, no would I reveal my most desirable at the moment and possibly not before the draft either

The four you’ve singled out?

 

[OccamsRazorRay]

What if Adelaide want to ensure they get Draper.

Potentially, but I don't think anyone is the clear number 1 at this stage. Any of the top 10, particularly the top 5, are going to be very very good players, so Crows might push up, or might be happy to just take best available.

Again, the scenario you've mentioned is more likely if someone like Draper emerges as a clear frontrunner before the end of the state league seasons. At this stage I'd personally take any one of Draper, Smith, FOS, Smillie

 

[tugga]

AFL Player Movement and List Management Changes

The AFL Commission has approved changes related to AFL Player Movement and List Management for 2024 and 2025 as part of the AFL Competitive Balance Review.

AFL CEO Andrew Dillon said the competitive balance review led by the football department is designed to ensure the competition continues to be as even as possible, year in, year out.

“The AFL competition is as close as it has ever been, we have record membership, record attendance and record viewership,” said Mr Dillon.

“There has been substantial investment in the New South Wales and Queensland academies as well as diversity programs across the country and pleasingly we are seeing talent outcomes as a result.

“However, we need to continue to ensure access to talented players remains fair and flexible for our clubs.

“Ultimately, we want our competition to continue to be as close as possible, so every supporter knows on any given day their club is a legitimate chance to compete.”

Seven changes have been confirmed today, with changes to the DVI/bidding system to come in effect in 2025, along with future pick trading, whilst Next Generation Academy (NGA) access points, father/son (primary/rookie list), rookies – time on list and free agency compensation changes to be implemented this year. The mechanism for mid-season trading of picks will be applied in mid-2026.

2024 Changes

NGA access point

The AFL will reinstate club access to all NGA players at selection one of the National Draft, to allow clubs to match bids on their NGA players regardless of where the bid falls. This aligns NGA access with Northern Academy and Father-Son access. Previously there was no access for clubs to NGA talent inside the first 40 draft selections.

The AFL will review the NGA zones and eligibility criteria ahead of the 2025 AFL National Draft.

Rookies – time on list

The AFL will introduce a trigger for an additional fourth year on the Rookie List where the Rookie has played less than ten career AFL matches, which will then apply in same way for access to an additional fifth year. Total aggregate years on the Rookie List will be capped at five years (5.5 years for Mid-Season Rookie Draft).

This change aims to assist clubs to invest in players who may take longer to develop.

Free agency compensation

The current free agency compensation model will be retained with an amendment to the compensation formula to include contract length as an additional key determinant. Under the amended model, there will be additional ‘points’ assigned to each contract as follows:

• 1 year term = 0 points;
• 2 years = 0 points;
• 3 years = 6 points;
• 4 years = 9 points;
• 5+ years = 12 points (noting no additional points for contracts longer than 5 years).

Father/son (primary/rookie list)

The AFL Rules will be amended to reflect that a club wanting to include a Father-Son player on its Primary or Rookie List must submit a Form 39A, consistent with the Northern Academy and NGA process. If there is no bid on the player in the AFL National Draft and they are otherwise not selected by the aligned club, that club may pre-list the player to their rookie list.

2025 changes

Draft value index (DVI)/bidding system

New framework for the DVI/bidding system will be implemented aiming to restore fair value.

• The new DVI will see points allocated up until the end of the natural third round. (Link to new DVI model)
• A 10% discount will be applied on all bids from selection 1 to 18 followed by an 84-point deduction (being 10% of selection 18) for all bids from selection 19 to 36.
• Matching a bid - first round: Matched using equivalent DVI points.
• Matching a bid - after first-round:
  • Matched using equivalent DVI points up to selection 36.
  • Match with next selection from selection 37.
• Restriction on Northern Academies: There will be no restrictions based on ladder finishing position for Northern Academy clubs.

Future pick trading

From 2025, Clubs will be able to trade future draft selections up to two years in advance subject to the following AFL imposed protections:

• Clubs must use two first round selections every four years.
• Clubs must have board approval to trade any first round selections.
• For second year only: Clubs must hold the full suite of draft selections (2nd and 3rd round selections) to trade their first round selections and vice versa.
  

2026 changes

Mid-season trading of picks

A mechanism for the trading of mid-season draft selections will be established in mid-2026 (following the 2025 National Draft) with the following key features:

• The draft selection trade period will open 30 minutes prior to the Mid-Season Rookie Draft (MSRD).
• The trading of both MSRD selections and the National Draft selections will be permitted.
• Future National Draft selections may be traded, subject future selection trading rules.
• Live draft night trades must include MSRD selections.
• MSRD selections may only be traded if a club has a selection in the MSRD.

 

[Mr Magic]

The four you’ve singled out?

well there are others but I do not know how many picks we will have, which picks we will have who picks before us and when. So I am really talking about 4 picks around the top 10 which we may not get and then there are other anomoilies. These are not set in stone but just based on my concepts for building premiership teams, other opportunities, other player potentials, team combinations, the opposition going forward, trajectories to our next premiership(s) etc....

So a number of top prospects I have put the line through at the moment for this, based on possible risks/upside deflators and that based on my own perceptions of upper end quality, but this can change, and I never deal in absolutes, it is a fluid situation where things can evolve. I am also considering how others are perceiving the crop at the moment, noting there will be changes and ducks and drakes will sort themselves out as well and there are more than four, but for me these four are simply got more going for them prospectively and that includes value. So(at least one) of the four will be rated lower currently for example, but I rate higher so we have a chance of getting him as part of the four but this can change and the order of players ratings can change obviously with more info and performance. So the four is a group we could get possibly where I have disregarded others others rate higher for their own reasons so I suppose it is a possible four that is currently attainable but may not be went it happens

 

[tiger_tough]

If we end up with all these picks we should strong arm Dodoro and say give us your first pick or we'll bid on Kako early and wipe it out.

 

[RobsJourney]

So the points system stays the same for this year. That's big for us.

Yep, big big win for us!

 

[RobsJourney]

If we end up with all these picks we should strong arm Dodoro and say give us your first pick or we'll bid on Kako early and wipe it out.

Yep, revenge for all the poaching! Plus he would be handy to draft anyway.

 

[Calcium Man]

AFL Player Movement and List Management Changes

The AFL Commission has approved changes related to AFL Player Movement and List Management for 2024 and 2025 as part of the AFL Competitive Balance Review.

AFL CEO Andrew Dillon said the competitive balance review led by the football department is designed to ensure the competition continues to be as even as possible, year in, year out.

“The AFL competition is as close as it has ever been, we have record membership, record attendance and record viewership,” said Mr Dillon.

“There has been substantial investment in the New South Wales and Queensland academies as well as diversity programs across the country and pleasingly we are seeing talent outcomes as a result.

“However, we need to continue to ensure access to talented players remains fair and flexible for our clubs.

“Ultimately, we want our competition to continue to be as close as possible, so every supporter knows on any given day their club is a legitimate chance to compete.”

Seven changes have been confirmed today, with changes to the DVI/bidding system to come in effect in 2025, along with future pick trading, whilst Next Generation Academy (NGA) access points, father/son (primary/rookie list), rookies – time on list and free agency compensation changes to be implemented this year. The mechanism for mid-season trading of picks will be applied in mid-2026.

2024 Changes

NGA access point

The AFL will reinstate club access to all NGA players at selection one of the National Draft, to allow clubs to match bids on their NGA players regardless of where the bid falls. This aligns NGA access with Northern Academy and Father-Son access. Previously there was no access for clubs to NGA talent inside the first 40 draft selections.

The AFL will review the NGA zones and eligibility criteria ahead of the 2025 AFL National Draft.

Rookies – time on list

The AFL will introduce a trigger for an additional fourth year on the Rookie List where the Rookie has played less than ten career AFL matches, which will then apply in same way for access to an additional fifth year. Total aggregate years on the Rookie List will be capped at five years (5.5 years for Mid-Season Rookie Draft).

This change aims to assist clubs to invest in players who may take longer to develop.

Free agency compensation

The current free agency compensation model will be retained with an amendment to the compensation formula to include contract length as an additional key determinant. Under the amended model, there will be additional ‘points’ assigned to each contract as follows:

• 1 year term = 0 points;
• 2 years = 0 points;
• 3 years = 6 points;
• 4 years = 9 points;
• 5+ years = 12 points (noting no additional points for contracts longer than 5 years).

Father/son (primary/rookie list)

The AFL Rules will be amended to reflect that a club wanting to include a Father-Son player on its Primary or Rookie List must submit a Form 39A, consistent with the Northern Academy and NGA process. If there is no bid on the player in the AFL National Draft and they are otherwise not selected by the aligned club, that club may pre-list the player to their rookie list.

2025 changes

Draft value index (DVI)/bidding system

New framework for the DVI/bidding system will be implemented aiming to restore fair value.

• The new DVI will see points allocated up until the end of the natural third round. (Link to new DVI model)
• A 10% discount will be applied on all bids from selection 1 to 18 followed by an 84-point deduction (being 10% of selection 18) for all bids from selection 19 to 36.
• Matching a bid - first round: Matched using equivalent DVI points.
• Matching a bid - after first-round:
  • Matched using equivalent DVI points up to selection 36.
  • Match with next selection from selection 37.
• Restriction on Northern Academies: There will be no restrictions based on ladder finishing position for Northern Academy clubs.

Future pick trading

From 2025, Clubs will be able to trade future draft selections up to two years in advance subject to the following AFL imposed protections:

• Clubs must use two first round selections every four years.
• Clubs must have board approval to trade any first round selections.
• For second year only: Clubs must hold the full suite of draft selections (2nd and 3rd round selections) to trade their first round selections and vice versa.

2026 changes

Mid-season trading of picks

A mechanism for the trading of mid-season draft selections will be established in mid-2026 (following the 2025 National Draft) with the following key features:

• The draft selection trade period will open 30 minutes prior to the Mid-Season Rookie Draft (MSRD).
• The trading of both MSRD selections and the National Draft selections will be permitted.
• Future National Draft selections may be traded, subject future selection trading rules.
• Live draft night trades must include MSRD selections.
• MSRD selections may only be traded if a club has a selection in the MSRD.

Are you sure this is correct? The rules seem sensible and thought out, 2 things I don’t expect from afl house.

 

[RobsJourney]

Are you sure this is correct? The rules seem sensible and thought out, 2 things I don’t expect from afl house.

What I DO NOT get is why they are changing back to NGA at any point of the draft (they year is would most benefit their former staffer, Essendon's Brad Scott), but will then review it again prior to the 2025 draft.

Why change it back to the controversial rules of the Ugle Hagan year now, only to review it again next year?

Really smells like BS if you ask me.

 

[tigs2010]

Are you sure this is correct? The rules seem sensible and thought out, 2 things I don’t expect from afl house.

Dunno man...

Bid in 2nd round you either match with points up to pick 36 OR next pick after 37.

For Armstrong if he doesn't go first round we may as well trade all our 2026 picks and match with a 5th rounder lol

 

[Noidnadroj]

I'd much prefer to keep Rioli over the other two, even if it means we have a slightly worse off hand at the draft table. Bolton's trade value is more than his on-field output and IMO as much as Baker competes (although that's been debatable in recent weeks), he is replaceable.

Rioli is actually highly skilled and consistently dependable. I'd hate for us to trade him for anything less than HUGE overs.

Goal kicking half forward / mids are a hell of a lot harder to find than HBF’s. And 18-months younger is not insignificant in relation to players we decide to keep/trade.

We have plenty of options for HBF … Smith, Brown, Short, Banks or one of the new draftees ….

We have zero options for small forwards capable of 40+ goals in a season… zero.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Mr Magic]

Goal kicking half forward / mids are a hell of a lot harder to find than HBF’s. And 18-months younger is not insignificant in relation to players we decide to keep/trade.

We have plenty of options for HBF … Smith, Brown, Short, Banks or one of the new draftees ….

We have zero options for small forwards capable of 40+ goals in a season… zero.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

how many small forwards kick 40plus??

I think I see things a little differently

 

[Noidnadroj]

You yourself constantly post about picks 11-20 being worth less then people think but want to give up Rioli for 11? I agree that picks are overrated, even in a deep draft.

6 + something is the minimum maybe 11 but at least 20 depending on what we give up in the back end

1. Rioli is contracted and while he’d like to go seems unlikely he’ll force the issue
2. 11 and 20 is already in the media, that means it’s the starting point in negotiations with GC… I.e their worst offer.
3. GC historically struggle to get players to come up, it’s a black hole for opportunities outside footy. When they get one on the line they either overpay in salary or trade capital
4. Their academy bonuses let them they take more risks with trading high picks
5. They’ve never made finals, they have to, Dimma has to next year, the pressure is starting to come, a second top 10 pick (on top of Lombard) isn’t going to help. Rioli will.
6. Adam saad who isn’t quite as good but a year younger went for 8.

IMO with the players it’s being suggested to leave (especially since none sound like they’ll push to leave) we need to come away with 2 of the best mids from the group

Draper/Fos/Smith/Smillie/lalor/ried and at worst one of the above and Langford/Travaglia

We also need to try for Armstrong KPP or at worst Faull/Shanaham/Whitlock (probably two of we miss Armstrong)

Plus hope for Hotton/Berry.

That’s probably at least 2 top 8 picks, another 8-15 and all up 5 top 20-25.

Personally id give up 2025 f2 and f3 to GC for 6+11 and maybe 20 depending on their appetite, and use 20,21,22 to move back into the first/second round in 2025.

I didn’t say 11 for Rioli. I said 11 and 20… in a very deep draft. Big difference. 11 and 20 is big overs for Rioli. Eg Dawson went for a mid-teens pick. Saad who was 18-months younger for a single pick 8. I’d love to get more of course … but I’d take 11 and 20 and run!


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Karp3_dm]

Are you sure this is correct? The rules seem sensible and thought out, 2 things I don’t expect from afl house.

And didn’t screw us over… totally unusual

Andrew Dillon’s faithful to Richmond god bless

 

[Ctl]

What I DO NOT get is why they are changing back to NGA at any point of the draft (they year is would most benefit their former staffer, Essendon's Brad Scott), but will then review it again prior to the 2025 draft.

Why change it back to the controversial rules of the Ugle Hagan year now, only to review it again next year?

Really smells like BS if you ask me.

The AFL want the playing cohort to be incresingly multicultural, so they need to incentevise clubs to invest and develop these players. The way to do that is to guarantee clubs will have access to the players they put the effort in on

 

[Dr Tigris]

I am only interested in A grade potential, I never compromise on quality, if I see a chip, through to the keeper. Plenty of opportunities to get b, c grades here there, other years different ways, trades you name it

I am a A grade whore, I will sell my soul for quality

At this point in time, I have singled out 4 that I want in particular and then there are some others that would be nice to have but a lot can change with more form and development from the prospects and I am sure I have not seen them all just a few contenders and I am sure RFC are not thinking like I am so fear not, no would I reveal my most desirable at the moment and possibly not before the draft either

I don't see that A grade is all you want.

You want a portfolio of players. You want as much potential for as low a risk as possible, across all positions.

If you have 4 + A graders on your list filled out with B+ and B graders you are contender.

You cannot tell exactly who will 'make it'. And how much they will make it.

So in my opinion you want as large an array of good picks as possible to get as much talent in as possible. Top 5 picks leads to B or A grade, low risk. 6- 10 less likelihood of A grade and a bit more risk. To 20 you still get high end quality, depending on year, but with a drop in both potential and increase in risk. 20 - 30 rare to get A grade and higher likelihood of busts, but still good pickings. After 30ish usually you are looking at players with flaws and risks. All this by year.

This year is a super deep draft of good quality. So top 20 extends into 30+.

So a lot of high picks = a better portfolio of talent = higher chance of A graders and good B graders of a range of types = a well balanced list of high quality.

But this has to balanced against the need to protect and mentor the young guys into becoming top end AFL players. So you have to have a good squad of older players.

It's the portfolio that matters to me, not only the top end. Having 6 A graders and 6 B graders = mediocre team. Having 4 A graders and 20 B graders = top end team.

my opinion.

 

[Mr Magic]

I don't see that A grade is all you want.

You want a portfolio of players. You want as much potential for as low a risk as possible, across all positions.

If you have 4 + A graders on your list filled out with B+ and B graders you are contender.

You cannot tell exactly who will 'make it'. And how much they will make it.

So in my opinion you want as large an array of good picks as possible to get as much talent in as possible. Top 5 picks leads to B or A grade, low risk. 6- 10 less likelihood of A grade and a bit more risk. To 20 you still get high end quality, depending on year, but with a drop in both potential and increase in risk. 20 - 30 rare to get A grade and higher likelihood of busts, but still good pickings. After 30ish usually you are looking at players with flaws and risks. All this by year.

This year is a super deep draft of good quality. So top 20 extends into 30+.

So a lot of high picks = a better portfolio of talent = higher chance of A graders and good B graders of a range of types = a well balanced list of high quality.

But this has to balanced against the need to protect and mentor the young guys into becoming top end AFL players. So you have to have a good squad of older players.

It's the portfolio that matters to me, not only the top end. Having 6 A graders and 6 B graders = mediocre team. Having 4 A graders and 20 B graders = top end team.

my opinion.

I can tell a player will make it, but will not atm, others we will se, but a lot are prospects with potential and may not make it.

What does make it mean anyway? Montagna on First Crack said there will be players that have nice careers, maybe 100-190 games or whatever, like at Essendon without really pushing the needle

A graders is not superstars, superstars are a level or levels above A grade. JR, Cotch, Rance and Dusty where more than A graders.

Getting cute about portfolio's is unrealistic I think. Sure we cannot pick all A graders, but we are here to win and you have to make hay while the sun shines and we have to hit this draft hard at the top end because we can, if we flirt on the fringes we are fools in my book

Someone mentioned the Dawson trade from Swans to Adelaide for the price. That is incredibly rare. Very hard to get that quality via a trade and if you do you pay though the nose if they know what they are doing

Of course there is room for B graders etc.. and the whole team cannot be A graders but there are other ways to get B graders, let alone C graders and why miss out on a A grader just to be cute?

 

[tiger_tough]

If we end up with all these picks we should strong arm Dodoro and say give us your first pick or we'll bid on Kako early and wipe it out.

This isn't a joke by the way.

Essendons pick will be much better than Lions and Kako is exactly the type of player Bummers need so they won't pass. A bid at 6 would chew up both of Essendons only two picks and leave them with Kako and probably a pick in the 40s.

Could end up with 1, 6, 7, 9, 12, 16, 20 and 21.

 

[tigs2010]

This isn't a joke by the way.

Essendons pick will be much better than Lions and Kako is exactly the type of player Bummers need so they won't pass. A bid at 6 would chew up both of Essendons only two picks and leave them with Kako and probably a pick in the 40s.

Could end up with 1, 6, 7, 9, 12, 16, 20 and 21.

They might call your bluff and let you have him

 

[tiger_tough]

They might call your bluff and let you have him

That's why you do the pick swap during trade period, not on draft night. If they don't go for it then we just go for Lions pick instead.

If we gave Dodo 22, 36, 39 and 41 I think they would actually be better off anyway. Everyone's a winner.