Mega Thread Trade Targets 2018 (2018 Trade Period Discussion)

[Bicks]

Jake Lloyd off the Wing would be swell.

Promise him we'll draft his brother Matty might get it done, very similar player at the same age, a bit taller is all. And can play.

 

[skittlebrew]

Off field issues while put under the same umbrella can be completely different. As I said, Menzel's were all his own doing, he dug his own grave and couldn't have given 2 shits. Francis on the other hand is in another boat altogether. Dealing with depression after losing his brother and moving away from a close family is very different imo, and a lot easier to rectify than Menzel's destructive behaviour.

Francis has never had work rate problems imo. There's a difference between not being fit enough or endurance being a weakness, than not actually applying yourself in the first place.

No Menzel did care but was ostracized. Yeah maybe he struggled after that but can you blame him? Tough to kick goals when no one gives it to you. What is this 'destructive behaviour' you're talking about?

Also Wtf are you talking about - dealing with depression is easier? Are you out of your mind? It's 10x harder to treat, with no easy answer if one at all. On top of all this you're going to put him into this CM bullchit...

You're really missing the point. Menzel was a known quantity and didn't make it, Francis a largely unknown quantity yet they want us to pony up the same $$$. At some point in time what draft pick you were makes sweet fk all difference.

 

[azza77]

No Menzel did care but was ostracized. Yeah maybe he struggled after that but can you blame him? Tough to kick goals when no one gives it to you. What is this 'destructive behaviour' you're talking about?

Also Wtf are you talking about - dealing with depression is easier? Are you out of your mind? It's 10x harder to treat, with no easy answer if one at all. On top of all this you're going to put him into this CM bullchit...

You're really missing the point. Menzel was a known quantity and didn't make it, Francis a largely unknown quantity yet they want us to pony up the same $$$. At some point in time what draft pick you were makes sweet fk all difference.

Menzel had a whole bunch of off field issues that I'm not going to discuss on a public forum because it is not my place to say. Just because "team mates didn't kick to him" doesnt excuse the fact that he really didn't give a shit.

I never said getting over depression was easier than anything. What I meant was that going into the draft, Francis was a level-headed prospect who suffered this unfortunate event and moving away from a very close-knit family probably did him no good whatsoever. I see this as an easier problem to rectify (I say easier for a lack of better word right now), than say someone who doesn't apply himself. You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink etc etc.

I also never said about paying the world for him. I said that I'd be happy to give up a late 2nd at most at this point in time. This may change if he gets back playing some decent AFL footy, but if he requests a trade 2nd season in a row then us/port will hold all the cards. Regardless, he should ABSOLUTELY be on our radar, even prior to speculation about the imminent loss of Lynch and/or Gov, and Kelly showing he may have just been a one season wonder.

I think that his poor form, mainly relating to his off field stuff, has been quite overblown around here.Francis and Menzel are two VERY different individuals in two VERY different scenarios, and I don't believe they can be compared.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Menzel had a whole bunch of off field issues that I'm not going to discuss on a public forum because it is not my place to say. Just because "team mates didn't kick to him" doesnt excuse the fact that he really didn't give a shit.

I never said getting over depression was easier than anything. What I meant was that going into the draft, Francis was a level-headed prospect who suffered this unfortunate event and moving away from a very close-knit family probably did him no good whatsoever. I see this as an easier problem to rectify (I say easier for a lack of better word right now), than say someone who doesn't apply himself. You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink etc etc.

I also never said about paying the world for him. I said that I'd be happy to give up a late 2nd at most at this point in time. This may change if he gets back playing some decent AFL footy, but if he requests a trade 2nd season in a row then us/port will hold all the cards. Regardless, he should ABSOLUTELY be on our radar, even prior to speculation about the imminent loss of Lynch and/or Gov, and Kelly showing he may have just been a one season wonder.

I think that his poor form, mainly relating to his off field stuff, has been quite overblown around here.Francis and Menzel are two VERY different individuals in two VERY different scenarios, and I don't believe they can be compared.

Nailed it

 

[conVINCEd]

I’m keen on Marc Murphy.

He’s getting on but is still quick/nippy and we need that in our midfield.

Blues will barely get any free agency compo given his age and if they’re bringing in a free agent or two (Wallis etc) they’ll get nothing - which creates an opportunity for a relatively cheap trade, especially as we might not want to take him as a Free Agent if we want Sloane compo ourselves.

Maybe Atkins in a trade or McGovern and #1 with a pick swap if Mitch is outta here.

 

[Shaz2012]

I’m keen on Marc Murphy.

Let’s say that both Sloane and Gov tell us they want a trade to Victoria.

Would this be draft tampering? We presumably have an offer in front of Sloane that puts him in band 1 compo range. At least $900k over 4. We could trade him for a late first, say Hawthorn, North Melbourne or Essendon, maybe we send pick 37 back to get it done if needed.

We then trade Gov to Carlton for pick 1. We also take Murphy as an FA on $1m over 2 years. That would give Carlton pick 2 as compensation.

Adelaide
In: Pick 1, Pick 10 (say)
Out: Gov, Pick 37

Carlton
In: Pick 2, Gov
Out: Pick 1

They basically get Gov for a 1 Pick downgrade.

We get Lukosius for Gov (who wants out) and we waste probably $500k a year for the next 2 years. But we had most of that set aside for Sloane anyway and after 2 years an extra $900k is available to tie down this years draftees.

We also replace Sloane if Murphy stays fit for the next 2 years.

 

[PAFC_1870]

Would this be draft tampering?

I think if you have to ask this question...

 

[Crow till I die]

Let’s say that both Sloane and Gov tell us they want a trade to Victoria.

Would this be draft tampering? We presumably have an offer in front of Sloane that puts him in band 1 compo range. At least $900k over 4. We could trade him for a late first, say Hawthorn, North Melbourne or Essendon, maybe we send pick 37 back to get it done if needed.

We then trade Gov to Carlton for pick 1. We also take Murphy as an FA on $1m over 2 years. That would give Carlton pick 2 as compensation.

Adelaide
In: Pick 1, Pick 10 (say)
Out: Gov, Pick 37

Carlton
In: Pick 2, Gov
Out: Pick 1

They basically get Gov for a 1 Pick downgrade.

We get Lukosius for Gov (who wants out) and we waste probably $500k a year for the next 2 years. But we had most of that set aside for Sloane anyway and after 2 years an extra $900k is available to tie down this years draftees.

We also replace Sloane if Murphy stays fit for the next 2 years.

That is out of left field but wow..well thought out. I reckon murphy would bite your arm off for that deal and carlton are hardly disadvantaged if they were seriously thinking of drafting walsh in stead of jl. Just the small matter of gov being happy to be in a bottom club for god knows how long

 

[Bearded Clam]

Let’s say that both Sloane and Gov tell us they want a trade to Victoria.

Would this be draft tampering? We presumably have an offer in front of Sloane that puts him in band 1 compo range. At least $900k over 4. We could trade him for a late first, say Hawthorn, North Melbourne or Essendon, maybe we send pick 37 back to get it done if needed.

We then trade Gov to Carlton for pick 1. We also take Murphy as an FA on $1m over 2 years. That would give Carlton pick 2 as compensation.

Adelaide
In: Pick 1, Pick 10 (say)
Out: Gov, Pick 37

Carlton
In: Pick 2, Gov
Out: Pick 1

They basically get Gov for a 1 Pick downgrade.

We get Lukosius for Gov (who wants out) and we waste probably $500k a year for the next 2 years. But we had most of that set aside for Sloane anyway and after 2 years an extra $900k is available to tie down this years draftees.

We also replace Sloane if Murphy stays fit for the next 2 years.

It’s definately draft tampering... but because it involves benefits for Carlton.. the AFL would probably let it go through to the keeper!..

 

[Bearded Clam]

Let’s say that both Sloane and Gov tell us they want a trade to Victoria.

Would this be draft tampering? We presumably have an offer in front of Sloane that puts him in band 1 compo range. At least $900k over 4. We could trade him for a late first, say Hawthorn, North Melbourne or Essendon, maybe we send pick 37 back to get it done if needed.

We then trade Gov to Carlton for pick 1. We also take Murphy as an FA on $1m over 2 years. That would give Carlton pick 2 as compensation.

Adelaide
In: Pick 1, Pick 10 (say)
Out: Gov, Pick 37

Carlton
In: Pick 2, Gov
Out: Pick 1

They basically get Gov for a 1 Pick downgrade.

We get Lukosius for Gov (who wants out) and we waste probably $500k a year for the next 2 years. But we had most of that set aside for Sloane anyway and after 2 years an extra $900k is available to tie down this years draftees.

We also replace Sloane if Murphy stays fit for the next 2 years.

The other thing wrong with it is that at murphy’s age even $1m a year probably wouldn’t get a band 1 for Carlton..

 

[Betts are off]

Surprised there's any interest in Marc Murphy. The guys gonna be 32 next year, has only played 1 full season since 2013, and comes from a resoundingly losing culture.

Plus our list needs more hard bodied, AFL ready 24-28 year old's, not more increasingly brittle 30+ year old players.

 

[deeztreez]

The scenario you’ve presented is quite possible, yeah, but I’m just not feeling it from a Carlton POV. This’ll be the last I add because I don’t want to be one of those neutrals that pushes the discussion too much. A poster such as Harker will probably offer more than me moving forward!

Unfortunately for Adelaide’s sake there’s simply too much pressure on Carlton to get it right, IMO. Do you think the footy industry is going to go easy on them trading out that pick for anything outside of the deal from the heavens? Carlton were nasty on the Gibbs deal two years running so it’ll be nothing resembling a 50-50 deal and unfortunately I think they’ll be worse this year. The sort of offers that are being discussed read to me like trying to buy a winning lottery ticket at 2/3 price then arguing they’ll lose it anyway to the tax man. Right now Lukosius is the safest draft day bet this century and whilst McGovern + <10 is a reasonable offer it only starts the conversation.

I think Carlton would be thinking more along the lines of we’ll take Rory off your hands as a FA, Mitch in the trade, a top 10 pick and your 2019 1st or the Sloane compensation pick. No doubt as a collective you’d sit back and say “woah that’s bonkers, no thanks” to which they’ll just go ok we’ll take Lukosius, shift Curnow into the midfield, go mids with the rest of our picks and chase both Gaff and Sloane with the money we saved on not bringing M McGovern in. That leaves them Lukosius and McKay up front with Curnow floating through and down back Weitering and Marchbank. Sloane and Gaff stiffen up the midfield next to Cripps, Dow, SPS and Murphy.

Realistically I just can’t see it happening with Carlton. It’s no sure thing that they hold it though come round 23. I wouldn’t bother with Gaff unless they can get Sloane (too outside with just Gaff) and J McGovern has no real reason to leave if Gaff does because WC will then find the money he deserves. I personally don’t see GC winning another game and I reckon Carlton will get 1 win at least. If I were wanting to prize pick 1 lose I’d be barracking hard for Brisbane, Carlton and St Kilda over the next 8 weeks. If GC hold it I have no doubt Lynch leaves as a FA so they’ll have pick 2 as well. In that scenario two decent players (Atkins and Kelly) and a later 1st would be enough to get it done, IMO.

FWIW I should probably make it clear that I hope you go hard at the picks this off-season. From the supporter of a team on the rise it’s definitely in my best interests for a contender to cut and burn. A fit B Crouch, Laird, Smith, Sloane/ whoever you trade in to replace him and the likes of Milera, Galucci, Doedee, Greenwood and Poholke with another pre-season into them is more than enough to have you back in contention in 2019 with some game plan tweaks

Just on a comment in your post...wouldn’t Curnow be better placed in fwd line or are Carlton supporters thinking they’ve found the next Kouta?

 

[Shaz2012]

The other thing wrong with it is that at murphy’s age even $1m a year probably wouldn’t get a band 1 for Carlton..

He is still eligible for compo I think. He just doesn’t get extra points out of 12. I presume we would have to pay a bit more which is why I went $1m instead of $850k.

I don’t think paying him more to get him into band 1 can be considered tampering as Hawks did it for Vickery. Considering we are losing Sloane and replacing him with a top tier Victorian, former number 1, I don’t see how they can argue against it too much. If he stayed fit and healthy he is a bloody good player.

I think both deals just about stack up on their own. My question really, is that is there any rule that says you can’t link two seperate deals like this.

 

[Jetwa5h]

He is still eligible for compo I think. He just doesn’t get extra points out of 12. I presume we would have to pay a bit more which is why I went $1m instead of $850k.

I don’t think paying him more to get him into band 1 can be considered tampering as Hawks did it for Vickery. Considering we are losing Sloane and replacing him with a top tier Victorian, former number 1, I don’t see how they can argue against it too much. If he stayed fit and healthy he is a bloody good player.

I think both deals just about stack up on their own. My question really, is that is there any rule that says you can’t link two seperate deals like this.

I think if we do it, it is tampering

 

[Golumless]

I think if we do it, it is tampering

Would potentially engineer a priority pick to Carlton in a legitimate sense though (and of course in that scenario they get a very good forward in McGovern) which makes me wonder if they'd care.

 

[Shaz2012]

I think if we do it, it is tampering

For sure. The tampering part of it would be on the Carlton side. But it gives the AFL an excuse of not having to give them a PP. Especially as they wouldnt have to give one to Brisbane and GCS as well. In the case of Vickery, it was $1m over 2 years and the compo was passed on to Sydney for Nankervis. If Vickery is worth $1m over 2, how can they argue that Murphy is not worth $2m over 2 and stop Carlton from handing over a pick for a trade?

 

[Sanders]

That’s not tampering

 

[Shaz2012]

That’s not tampering

Clearly, the Vickery one wasn't. But what about what I am suggesting though? Whether you think its a good idea or not, is it tampering?

 

[Sanders]

Clearly, the Vickery one wasn't. But what about what I am suggesting though? Whether you think its a good idea or not, is it tampering?

Bad idea but not tampering because no one knows what the formula is so it can’t be manipulated

 

[Crow till I die]

For sure. The tampering part of it would be on the Carlton side. But it gives the AFL an excuse of not having to give them a PP. Especially as they wouldnt have to give one to Brisbane and GCS as well. In the case of Vickery, it was $1m over 2 years and the compo was passed on to Sydney for Nankervis. If Vickery is worth $1m over 2, how can they argue that Murphy is not worth $2m over 2 and stop Carlton from handing over a pick for a trade?

Ever seen the movie lock up?. I tell you what would happen..the deal is engineered and the 'tampering' is at carltons end but just like the young guy (carlton in this case) who decides to drive the car around the prison yard, the AFL will zero in on adelaide (stallone' s character) and nail just us for it ignoring carltons role in it. Point is that the AFL will use any opportunity to wack us harder and further than any of their vic teams end of so it wouldn't be worth the hassle

 

[Shaz2012]

Point is that the AFL will use any opportunity to wack us harder and further than any of their vic teams end of so it wouldn't be worth the hassle

Very true. Like Lucas Neil's penalty against Italy. Don't give them an excuse to give a decision against us.

 

[Grenville]

Clearly, the Vickery one wasn't. But what about what I am suggesting though? Whether you think its a good idea or not, is it tampering?

The FA/Compensation pick system has been manipulated for clubs advantage since the beginning. Monfries trade for pick 50 - arguably well under his market value at the time - but benefited both Port/Essendon (Let Port keep 2nd rounder for Pearce, and Essendon wouldnt have got comp since they picked up Goddard).

Trade for Carlton pick 1 would have to get past AFL scruitiny, which would mean giving up more than McGovern, but i dont see that the rest of it can be considered tampering.

 

[MRB37]

Surprised there's any interest in Marc Murphy. The guys gonna be 32 next year, has only played 1 full season since 2013, and comes from a resoundingly losing culture.

Plus our list needs more hard bodied, AFL ready 24-28 year old's, not more increasingly brittle 30+ year old players.

We're kind of in an empty space in our midfield if Sloane leaves. The Crouches are our only mids left who are in the 22-25 range, the rest like Poholke and Gallucci are still speculative at best, CEY will be 26 and still better suited to a backup and Greenwood will be 27, then Gibbs will be 30 and Douglas 32 and Hampton and Gibson aren't guarantees past this year. So we might need another guy we can plug in straight away for a year and hopefully draft a couple more midfielders with the picks we have coming this year to help replenish our depth in that area.

 

[Shaz2012]

The FA/Compensation pick system has been manipulated for clubs advantage since the beginning. Monfries trade for pick 50 - arguably well under his market value at the time - but benefited both Port/Essendon (Let Port keep 2nd rounder for Pearce, and Essendon wouldnt have got comp since they picked up Goddard).

Trade for Carlton pick 1 would have to get past AFL scruitiny, which would mean giving up more than McGovern, but i dont see that the rest of it can be considered tampering.

Nah. He is contracted for 2 more years.

If needed we could also throw in Atkins. They wanted him as part of the first Gibbs trade. But then they end up getting Gov and Atkins for a pick downgrade from pick 1 to pick 2.

 

[Grenville]

Nah. He is contracted for 2 more years.

If needed we could also throw in Atkins. They wanted him as part of the first Gibbs trade. But then they end up getting Gov and Atkins for a pick downgrade from pick 1 to pick 2.

The AFL would have to look at McGovern for Pick 1 in isolation and decide that was reasonable. Objectively, I cant see how that's possible.