Ukraine on verge of civil war?

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While Ukranians are voting in a Russian speaking leader in open democratic elections spare a thought for Ukranians in Donbass as the military dictatorship ban Ukranian language in the education system:

khpg.org

Russian-controlled Donbas ‘republics’ remove Ukrainian language and everything connected with Ukraine from schools

Although Russia repeatedly claims that Russian speakers were under threat in Crimea and Donbas, it is the Ukrainian language that has come under attack as soon as Russia took actual or effective control, as well as Ukrainian history and culture
khpg.org


The DPR & LPR are sounding more and more like a fascist military junta beholden to Moscow every day.
 
Zidane98 said:
While Ukranians are voting in a Russian speaking leader in open democratic elections spare a thought for Ukranians in Donbass as the military dictatorship ban Ukranian language in the education system:

khpg.org

Russian-controlled Donbas ‘republics’ remove Ukrainian language and everything connected with Ukraine from schools

Although Russia repeatedly claims that Russian speakers were under threat in Crimea and Donbas, it is the Ukrainian language that has come under attack as soon as Russia took actual or effective control, as well as Ukrainian history and culture
khpg.org


The DPR & LPR are sounding more and more like a fascist military junta beholden to Moscow every day.
Click to expand...

Pretty sure its a response to this

www.reuters.com

Criticism of Ukraine's language law justified: rights body

Ukraine's neighbors have a right to criticize a new Ukrainian law banning schools from teaching in minority languages beyond primary school level, a leading European rights watchdog said on Friday.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

If the Maidanites, once the'd taken power, tried to include the more Russocentric East rather than vilify it odds are they would not have lost that part of the country. They have only themselves to blame really.
 
Geelong_Sicko said:
Pretty sure its a response to this

www.reuters.com

Criticism of Ukraine's language law justified: rights body

Ukraine's neighbors have a right to criticize a new Ukrainian law banning schools from teaching in minority languages beyond primary school level, a leading European rights watchdog said on Friday.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

If the Maidanites, once the'd taken power, tried to include the more Russocentric East rather than vilify it odds are they would not have lost that part of the country. They have only themselves to blame really.
Click to expand...

Except Russian language was never banned at all, just that Ukrainian would be the primary language at schools in Ukraine. Those same schooks were more than free to continue teaching Russian, Hungarian or any language separately.

Unlike what us going on in Donbass now where speaking Ukranian or wearing a Ukranian flag is enough to get you thrown in prison without any rights or access by international monitors to ensure political prisoners are being treated correctly.

Russia has lost Ukraine forever and Donbass will follow when Russian propaganda and lies is no longer cutting the mustard.

Especially when the democratically elected president of Ukrains is Russian speaking / ethicity. Kind of makes the article you posted redundant.
 

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Zidane98 said:
Except Russian language was never banned at all, just that Ukrainian would be the primary language at schools in Ukraine. Those same schooks were more than free to continue teaching Russian, Hungarian or any language separately.

Unlike what us going on in Donbass now where speaking Ukranian or wearing a Ukranian flag is enough to get you thrown in prison without any rights or access by international monitors to ensure political prisoners are being treated correctly.

Russia has lost Ukraine forever and Donbass will follow when Russian propaganda and lies is no longer cutting the mustard.

Especially when the democratically elected president of Ukrains is Russian speaking / ethicity. Kind of makes the article you posted redundant.
Click to expand...
Ukraine must love having to take orders from the prez or vp or having their aid cut off. First by Biden, now by Trump. Are they a nation with so little self respect?
 

Yes its rt. But watch 1.25 to 1.40, its footage of biden boasting of using aid as leverage. At a council of foriegn affairs press conference


This is Us abc report investigation (very gentle )into hunter bidens business and joes politics intersecting.
 
Myth.. when you insert your son (no experience of gas or Ukraine ) into the corrupt oligarchy of a country you have recently funded a revolution in, and appointed the leaders of a new government in, you have a conflict of interest when you can withold billions of aid if you arent allowed to directly shape the judiciary,
Fact...No thats cool, expand your corruption. whats the point of owning the Ukraine otherwise? Crimea ? Oops....

This isnt to say russia was better, or Trump is innocent, but its cognitive dissonance not to see the Corruption in the Hunter n joe show Joe will lose again just like Hillary.
 
awaremind said:
Myth.. when you insert your son (no experience of gas or Ukraine ) into the corrupt oligarchy of a country you have recently funded a revolution in, and appointed the leaders of a new government in, you have a conflict of interest when you can withold billions of aid if you arent allowed to directly shape the judiciary,
Fact...No thats cool, expand your corruption. whats the point of owning the Ukraine otherwise? Crimea ? Oops....

This isnt to say russia was better, or Trump is innocent, but its cognitive dissonance not to see the Corruption in the Hunter n joe show Joe will lose again just like Hillary.
Click to expand...

Ukraine is going in a different direction to the Oligarchs. Next step is for the 2004 constitution to be reinstated and a more western style of govt less suspectible to abuses seen in thw Yanukovych regime.

Zelensky also encouraged other former soviet states to break away from Russian grasp. Putins just gonna be thrilled by that. Not like he can perpetuate the anti Russian language myth anymore either when Zelensky is erhnic Russian and Russian speaking.
 
Zidane98 said:
Ukraine is going in a different direction to the Oligarchs. Next step is for the 2004 constitution to be reinstated and a more western style of govt less suspectible to abuses seen in thw Yanukovych regime.

Zelensky also encouraged other former soviet states to break away from Russian grasp. Putins just gonna be thrilled by that. Not like he can perpetuate the anti Russian language myth anymore either when Zelensky is erhnic Russian and Russian speaking.
Click to expand...
Its business suicide though to shut yourself off from such a large, influential and resource rich neighbour , and to make military alliances with its enemies could be literal suicide as they could be the frontlines of a conventional or nuclear war why you would commit to alliance with a nation on the other side of the planet, that only cares about them as much as its geopolitically convenient beats me. They should be aiming to be an independent bridging nation not the first to be thrown under the bus if anything big happens, which they will be if it does.
 
awaremind said:
Its business suicide though to shut yourself off from such a large, influential and resource rich neighbour , and to make military alliances with its enemies could be literal suicide as they could be the frontlines of a conventional or nuclear war why you would commit to alliance with a nation on the other side of the planet, that only cares about them as much as its geopolitically convenient beats me. They should be aiming to be an independent bridging nation not the first to be thrown under the bus if anything big happens, which they will be if it does.
Click to expand...

Ukraine wants to integrate more with Europe which makes sense considering where it is located. Dont see Ukraine joining any military alliance for quite some time.

Who said anything about shutting relations off with Russia? Ukraine also wants to continue a relationship wirh Russia - on its own terms.
 

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TheHeatleyStand said:
but every country uses extreme right thugs as their shock troops

listen up my friend

are you saying Russians are not being murdered in East Ukraine by the ukienazis and hard core Kiev military personnel?
is this what you're saying?
most is the Ukranian military won't even go fight the Russian side of Ukraine
they know that going to war against the kievrus brothers serves nobody any good

which is why the western Ukraine puppet regime can't do anything against Russian farmers and miners from the east
but if you're seriously suggesting Kiev isn't targeting the Russian Ukrainians and have killed thousands we can delve into the too!



The thing is my friend... it's over!
The West can't do much more in Ukraine
it's up to President porky and some Ukrainian oligarchs and the fascists plus their supporters

unsustainable

plus do you ever see a day kiev will wrestle crimea back from its rightful owners?

seriously?

I think everybody understands what's going on in Ukraine now
Kiev is getting less and less support because it's never going to swing and the West is realising what an expensive exercise this western backed coup is!

nobody has the stomach to keep this foolhardy neo-con exercise going!

though some won't stop because they're in too deep!

but they don't have long to go! lol

when the dust is settled they will run like rats!

I don't see Russia attack Kiev
I do see Kiev attacking the Russian side of Ukraine

anyway.. good luck!

unfortunately for the West they don't have an Isis like boots on the ground mercenary army

only the Nazis!
not enough!

if Russia wanted to invade Ukraine it would be in Kiev for lunch
Click to expand...

Hopefully it ends as well as possible
 
I sent my m8 from Kyif, been Australian ±30 years , is an Aussie , but an intellectual versed in Stephen F Cohen , John Mearsheimer etc , thinks part the Washingtonconsensus I imbibe and the google algorithm has assigned me a unique number from my 'h.i.s.t.o.r.y' and i receive a curated confirmation-bias content [/grammar]

because I did notice last three months H.O.W.E.V.E..R the last week has been crescendo...
my fallacy like my friend Oleg outlined , one has conflated the Reuters/AP WaPo line for the reality

the map is not the territory

And Pentagon gone[sic] supposedly woke <eyesrollemoji>
 
Russia to take control of most if not all of the Ukraine
Russia has stepped into Kazakhstan and unlikely to ever leave
Georgia has a short life ahead
Tajikistan has sold itself already
Armenia already half baked

Putin is on the expansion hunt to rebuild the Soviet Union
 
Power Raid said:
Russia to take control of most if not all of the Ukraine
Russia has stepped into Kazakhstan and unlikely to ever leave
Georgia has a short life ahead
Tajikistan has sold itself already
Armenia already half baked

Putin is on the expansion hunt to rebuild the Soviet Union
Click to expand...

But sanctions will stop the invasion!!! Look at how well that worked in stopping his incursions into Georgia and Armenia and the Crimea and eastern Ukraine. This time, he will blink!!!
 
What people fail to recognise is that Russia fundamentally perceives itself not as being a USSR-wannabe (which was ideologically based, whereas Putin is clearly a cold-blooded pragmatist), but as a defensive, reactive power. From this prism, their incursions into Georgia and Ukraine were defensive and reactionary, not offensive blitzkriegs.

1) RE Georgia, mutual stupidity from both the Georgians and Ossetians (upping the ante by firing increasingly lethal weapons at each other) escalated into a conflict when Georgia outright shelled Ossetian positions. This triggered South Ossetia's defense treaty with Russia. In that sense, an attack on South Ossetia was an attack on Russia, and so that's why Russia intervened.

Tellingly though, they didn't remove the government in Tbilisi. They certainly had the means to, so why didn't they? Simple - they had defended their territory while sending a message to the Georgians ("Don't mess with South Ossetia. If you mess with them, you mess with us."). Georgia appears to have grasped the message.

2) They went into Crimea because part of their military was there (The Black Sea Fleet). If part of our naval fleet was stuck on Stewart Island and a bunch of anti-Australian nutters came to power there for whatever reason, it would be downright treasonous for the Australian government to not seize the island immediately. What sort of government abandons its military like that (don't say ScoMo's; they don't count.)? Same deal with Syria and Tartus, BTW.

3) This isn't a particularly nuanced analysis, but Ukraine is effectively two countries. The West mostly speaks Ukrainian, is hostile to Russia and is prelatively pro-Western, but also poorer. With the possible exception of cities like Sumy, the wealthier East tends to be more pro-Russian and speaks Russian more often, with Donetsk and Lugansk being especially pro-Russian (hence them forming pro-Russian separatist republics). So far, Putin has refrained from openly supporting them, even though he's definitely diverted weaponry their way and hasn't stood in the way of Russian citizens 'volunteering' to use 'their' armoured vehicles to fight on Donetsk and Lugansk's behalf.

Putin has actually refrained from formally recognising the Donetsk and Lugansk 'Republics' so far, but they are still bordering on Russian territory and are pro-Russian, so I have little doubt he feels the need to 'defend' them from Ukrainian influence. He'll wait for Ukraine to do something provocative/stupid (maybe encroaching on their territory with an arguable attempt to recapture it? maybe firing rockets at Donetsk?), have Donetsk/Lugansk formally 'invite' Putin to provide his input, which he will in the form of Russian batallions. He'll then seal off the borders to both, claim that he was "invited by the good people of Donetsk/Lugansk" and that "it was a humanitarian intervention designed to save lives in the face of Ukrainian aggression". He'll then recognise those states and sign defence treaties with them to prevent such "horrible tragedies" happening again. The West won't accept that, but UN member states as a whole probably will.

4) Russia has a 'special relationship' with Kazakhstan, so it was always going to intervene, if only because it's invested too much into the country. Besides, even if Kazakhstan were to fall, what would emerge in its place? In light of the current regime's closeness to Russia, there's a decent chance it would be a pro-Western or (less likely) a pro-Turkish government. Erdogan is a neo-Ottoman lunatic; he would have seen the chaos there as an attempt to expand Turkey's influence, especially since Kazakh and Turkish are both Turkic languages and so they do share some distinct cultural ties.

Even a pro-Western regime would be more beneficial for Turkey in terms of expanding their influence in Kazakhstan, since while they're not exactly a reliable ally of the West, they are still part of NATO and are fairly hostile to Russia. Russia wouldn't want that.

If anything, it's not like Australia intervening to prevent NZ's regime from getting overthrown by dangerous, potentially hostile radicals. From a geopolitical perspective, Russia's actions in Kazakhstan are understandable.

5) Armenia and Russia have long had a 'special relationship'. If anything, Armenia moving away from that relationship for a time helped cost them the war against the Azeris.

6) Tajikstan just did what they do whenever they're in trouble; dial R-U-S-S-I-A. It sorta worked in the 1990's, so why not in 2021? They also have a security treaty with one another which forced Russia's hand somewhat, plus keeping a pro-Russian dictator in power makes sense. IMO Russia aren't overly concerned about Tajikstan beyond that; they're one of the poorer post-Soviet states, and they have bigger fish to fry.

The common theme here is that Russia is safeguarding areas which are close to its territory for geopolitical, economic and military reasons. He's not rebuilding the USSR because, lack of ideology aside, unlike the Soviets of decades gone by he commits as few troops to overseas expeditions as he can get away with (Russia's presence in Syria was miniscule compared to the USSR's in 1980s Afghanistan). Additionally, there's no particular evidence that he's sending military 'advisors' across the globe or planning to overthrow recalcitrant governments (Prague Spring, Hungary 1956). The Ukrainian government itself IMO is in no danger from Putin, just as the Georgian government wasn't.
 
Ice-Wolf said:
More like the Russian Empire.
Click to expand...

I'm not a fan of expansionist powers but to go from bankruptcy to conqueror is pretty incredible. The EU must be kicking itself it hadn't done more in eastern europe, failed in central asia and will make the same mistake in africa.
 
DaRick said:
What people fail to recognise is that Russia fundamentally perceives itself not as being a USSR-wannabe (which was ideologically based, whereas Putin is clearly a cold-blooded pragmatist), but as a defensive, reactive power. From this prism, their incursions into Georgia and Ukraine were defensive and reactionary, not offensive blitzkriegs.

1) RE Georgia, mutual stupidity from both the Georgians and Ossetians (upping the ante by firing increasingly lethal weapons at each other) escalated into a conflict when Georgia outright shelled Ossetian positions. This triggered South Ossetia's defense treaty with Russia. In that sense, an attack on South Ossetia was an attack on Russia, and so that's why Russia intervened.

Tellingly though, they didn't remove the government in Tbilisi. They certainly had the means to, so why didn't they? Simple - they had defended their territory while sending a message to the Georgians ("Don't mess with South Ossetia. If you mess with them, you mess with us."). Georgia appears to have grasped the message.

2) They went into Crimea because part of their military was there (The Black Sea Fleet). If part of our naval fleet was stuck on Stewart Island and a bunch of anti-Australian nutters came to power there for whatever reason, it would be downright treasonous for the Australian government to not seize the island immediately. What sort of government abandons its military like that (don't say ScoMo's; they don't count.)? Same deal with Syria and Tartus, BTW.

3) This isn't a particularly nuanced analysis, but Ukraine is effectively two countries. The West mostly speaks Ukrainian, is hostile to Russia and is prelatively pro-Western, but also poorer. With the possible exception of cities like Sumy, the wealthier East tends to be more pro-Russian and speaks Russian more often, with Donetsk and Lugansk being especially pro-Russian (hence them forming pro-Russian separatist republics). So far, Putin has refrained from openly supporting them, even though he's definitely diverted weaponry their way and hasn't stood in the way of Russian citizens 'volunteering' to use 'their' armoured vehicles to fight on Donetsk and Lugansk's behalf.

Putin has actually refrained from formally recognising the Donetsk and Lugansk 'Republics' so far, but they are still bordering on Russian territory and are pro-Russian, so I have little doubt he feels the need to 'defend' them from Ukrainian influence. He'll wait for Ukraine to do something provocative/stupid (maybe encroaching on their territory with an arguable attempt to recapture it? maybe firing rockets at Donetsk?), have Donetsk/Lugansk formally 'invite' Putin to provide his input, which he will in the form of Russian batallions. He'll then seal off the borders to both, claim that he was "invited by the good people of Donetsk/Lugansk" and that "it was a humanitarian intervention designed to save lives in the face of Ukrainian aggression". He'll then recognise those states and sign defence treaties with them to prevent such "horrible tragedies" happening again. The West won't accept that, but UN member states as a whole probably will.



The common theme here is that Russia is safeguarding areas which are close to its territory for geopolitical, economic and military reasons. He's not rebuilding the USSR because, lack of ideology aside, unlike the Soviets of decades gone by he commits as few troops to overseas expeditions as he can get away with (Russia's presence in Syria was miniscule compared to the USSR's in 1980s Afghanistan). Additionally, there's no particular evidence that he's sending military 'advisors' across the globe or planning to overthrow recalcitrant governments (Prague Spring, Hungary 1956). The Ukrainian government itself IMO is in no danger from Putin, just as the Georgian government wasn't.
Click to expand...

Russia's pretty much already done those things in the Donbass. Ukraine isn't effectively 2 countries either. The majority of Donbass population have fled and the majority have chosen to remain within Ukraine. Most of the pro russian sentiment is sewn by Russia itself - the first thing that was done as soon as the rebels took over was to seize control of all media.

Putin has no interest in defending the inhabitants of those regions either. If he did he wouldn't be sending in Russian military assets covertly who launch attacks on Ukranian positions from civilian areas. The peak of this stupidity obviously was the shooting down of MH17 where his military operating unofficially decided to start shooting randomly at any target in the sky with BUK missiles on the off chance they may be a Ukrainian transport plane. Only in the world of Russian propaganda is Putin doing anything to help the inhabitants of Donbass. The reality is the opposite and the reason why so many fled the region and were displaced within Ukraine.

Putin now be going all in on Ukraine so he can once again have a puppet regime installed and use the country as an extension of Russia at his pleasure. But the people of Ukraine in general have been fighting this for quite some time and the overall sentiment is against Russian influence. Interesting to see if he can overcome that sentiment and retake Ukraine again. Maybe he can bring back his friend Yanukovich to run the country.
 
Power Raid said:
I'm not a fan of expansionist powers but to go from bankruptcy to conqueror is pretty incredible. The EU must be kicking itself it hadn't done more in eastern europe, failed in central asia and will make the same mistake in africa.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't want to be part of the former Russian Empire right now as Putin looks like he wants to be the new Tsar. If I was Estonia I'd be very nervous.
 

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Ukraine on verge of civil war?

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