Still wouldn't surprise me at all for Russia to come up with a reason for a limited invasion ala Crimea. Go in as a "peacekeeping" force in certain eastern/southern regions or cities, set up further military infrastructure to help secure areas "for the locals" and then at their "request" hold some form of elections before a formal annexation. The buildup of forces in Belarus would basically serve as a "hands off" warning to Ukraine to just let it happen and not shoot Russian soldiers. Yeah there'd be some sanctions, but Russia would largely get away with it if they stuck to areas already outside of direct Ukrainian control. If they go further, then it all hinges on Ukrainian determination and acceptance of losses. No-one else is going to help them out that seriously.
This article mentions a few things that might factor in, although I'm skeptical the weather will matter too much, since Russia's advantages mostly come from the air (at least when we're talking about a large scale invasion). Not wanting to overshadow the Winter Olympics sounds like a stupid reason on face value, but probably quite a valid reason not to invade yet.
This article mentions a few things that might factor in, although I'm skeptical the weather will matter too much, since Russia's advantages mostly come from the air (at least when we're talking about a large scale invasion). Not wanting to overshadow the Winter Olympics sounds like a stupid reason on face value, but probably quite a valid reason not to invade yet.
Why Putin's Ukraine invasion decision depends on weather, Xi Jinping's feelings and 'lethal aid'
Russia continues to deny it has plans to invade, but the Ukrainian people are readying themselves for what might come, and many say any invasion will spark a fierce resistance movement.
www.abc.net.au