Ukraine on verge of civil war?

[CD Xbow]

Emphasis on was.

You know how I was talking about that bloke that the DPR arrested? That was him.

If he was directly backed by Moscow, it doesn't appear to have been with any real enthusiasm.

Remember - Putin is a cold-blood pragmatist. For obvious reasons, he doesn't want to be seen as directly endorsing Neo-Nazis.

Again, that's the problem with referencing articles that are almost 8 years old. They might not be up-to-date.



I never said that they had a say in governance; I said that they were part of Ukraine's military/law enforcement apparatus - which they confirm themselves, with the rather meaningful title 'subordination' (granted, the translation wouldn't be perfect):

​

Saying that they're a separate entity to the Ukrainian government is like saying that the US National Guard is a separate entity to the US government, or that the Australian Army Reserve is a separate entity to the Australian government. It's just silly.

I never accused you of saying that Putin was doing a poor job in Russia, BTW. However, I respectfully maintain that, like many Westerners, your suspicions RE Putin's Russia are clouding your judgment on this matter. If you look at Putin's track record, his incursions into foreign nations invariably involve either honouring defence treaties (South Ossetia/Georgia) or protecting Russian military assets (Crimea/Tartus), which any reasonable government would do. He did not overthrow Georgia's government despite having the ability; why would he overthrow Ukraine's now? I think we'd both agree that Ukraine would be a tougher opponent than Georgia, which would give him even less incentive to try. Remember that's he's a cold-blooded pragmatist, not a neo-con ideologue.

I maintain that the most he'll do is shore up DPR/LPR, beat the Ukrainian forces back a bit to send a message, and then retreat.

I agree that he should not interfere directly in Ukrainian affairs. However, the same goes for the West and the US for helping to install Yushchenko and Poroshenko, both of whom were overtly hostile to Russia.



This is true, but the point itself is valid - should the US/West be backing a government with such elements?

Beyond paranoia about Putin's Russia being the next USSR, and an unnecessarily competitive mindset wherein Russia are treated as a competitor rather than a potential partner, I don't understand why the US/West are particularly interested in Ukraine anyway.

Even before the 2014 clusterfu**, which decimated its economy, it was one of Europe's poorest countries, and the relatively pro-West half was even poorer than the relatively pro-Russian half! It is quite rich in natural resources, but certainly not in oil/gas, and Russia is far more resource-rich than Ukraine is. From that perspective, you'd think that they'd be more interested in cultivating ties with Russia than Ukraine.

But no, to them Russia is a competitor that must be beaten at all costs, even if the victory is pyrrhic. It's times like these where I actually miss Bush I - he oversaw the end of the Cold War without a nuclear exchange, was relatively cagey RE foreign adventures (Panama /= Iraq, and he didn't overthrow Saddam either) and seemed to have a pretty good relationship with Gorbachev.



It's hard to build proper bilateral relations with governments that overtly dislike you. But yes, the Donbass issue is a stumbling block.



As usual in geopolitics, no side is completely clean here. The US/West showed their own contempt for Ukrainian independence/sovereignty by helping to place the overtly anti-Russian Yushchenko/Poroshenko into the big chair. Had they not done that, then Crimea remains under Ukrainian control rather than de facto Russian control, and while Russia would still have substantial influence over Ukraine due to Russia being a great power and a big trading partner, we wouldn't be discussing a Russo-Ukrainian War.

Also, many Ukrainians are ethnic Russians/Russophones, so Putin wasn't completely wrong. Ukrainian culture and language is a thing (ethnic Ukrainians don't behave quite like ethnic Russians), but it's closely intertwined with Russian culture and language. An ethnic Russian told me that the two languages were mutually intelligible to the point of being almost identical.

TLDR; we're going around in circles again.

Much of this appears to be a comedy piece.

 

[awaremind]

NATO plus it member nations have no desire for Ukraine to join. Considering the Budapest agreement signed between US/Ukraine/Russia US have been very much standing back from the conflict.

Aside from Kyiv, No One in Rush for Ukraine to Join NATO

Observers say White House, European allies sending mixed signals about prospects for country's membership in Atlantic alliance

www.voanews.com

It's all coming from Ukraine's end. They feel that it is the only way for them to stand up to Russian aggression. Diplomacy with Putin would be a better way but it's kind of difficult to achieve that when Putin is continuing the frozen war in Donbass which pretty much guarantees NATO won't consider Ukraine giving Putin plenty of motivation to maintain the status quo (won't take responsibility for Donbass and officially take measures to integrate it into Russia while at the same time continuing to fund / assist rebel forces in Donbass fighting against Ukraine).

So nato is going to cross Russia s red line about Ukraine joining nato and they don’t even want them to join? That kinda doesn’t make much sense but then again us and nato leaders seem more like lunatics all the time. I don’t think they realise practically no one in Europe or USA or here either has any appetite for a big war. We would lose because Russia would bE fighting for survival and we wouldn’t even know why we were fighting. No one gives a dam about Ukraine and tbh the Russian story makes more sense.

 

[awaremind]

NATO plus it member nations have no desire for Ukraine to join. Considering the Budapest agreement signed between US/Ukraine/Russia US have been very much standing back from the conflict.

Aside from Kyiv, No One in Rush for Ukraine to Join NATO

Observers say White House, European allies sending mixed signals about prospects for country's membership in Atlantic alliance

www.voanews.com

It's all coming from Ukraine's end. They feel that it is the only way for them to stand up to Russian aggression. Diplomacy with Putin would be a better way but it's kind of difficult to achieve that when Putin is continuing the frozen war in Donbass which pretty much guarantees NATO won't consider Ukraine giving Putin plenty of motivation to maintain the status quo (won't take responsibility for Donbass and officially take measures to integrate it into Russia while at the same time continuing to fund / assist rebel forces in Donbass fighting against Ukraine).

Maybe it’s a way to get more money for the Ukrainian leaders to steal … or prop up thier economy which is worse than it was before the western pivot of 2014

 

[Zidane98]

So nato is going to cross Russia s red line about Ukraine joining nato and they don’t even want them to join? That kinda doesn’t make much sense but then again us and nato leaders seem more like lunatics all the time. I don’t think they realise practically no one in Europe or USA or here either has any appetite for a big war. We would lose because Russia would bE fighting for survival and we wouldn’t even know why we were fighting. No one gives a dam about Ukraine and tbh the Russian story makes more sense.

You're tying yourself in knots babushka.


Ukraine - wants independence from Russia. Wants to pursue closer trading links with Europe while still maintaining a relationship with Russia.

Putin - wants Ukraine all to himself. Proceeds to start and maintain a frozen conflict in East Ukraine which undermines Ukraine's efforts at EU intergration. Vladimir could go ahead and take responsibility for Donbass by officially annexing it and making it part of the Russian federation. If Vlad truly cares about the people of Donbass he either does this or pulls out of there for good. But that would almost guarantee he loses the rest of Ukraine forever.

Ukraine therefore are seeking any means necessary to defend themselves against Russian aggression. Understandable - im sure even you agree. They want NATO help but NATO itself and member nations don't want a part of it. This makes complete sense that Ukraine wants to defend itself.

Ukraine is fighting for its independent future here and I don't see Vlad doing much more than stoking further conflict in Donbass to maintain the status quo. It would be stupid of him to intervene in Ukraine - he knows it, the world knows it. No war will be started either. If a war was going to be started Vladimir's military working under the rebel thugs shooting 298 civilians out of the sky within Ukraine absolutely would have sparked it. That action was and will always be the most provocative action of the entire conflict and it didn't go close to starting a war.

 

[awaremind]

You're tying yourself in knots babushka.


Ukraine - wants independence from Russia. Wants to pursue closer trading links with Europe while still maintaining a relationship with Russia.

Putin - wants Ukraine all to himself. Proceeds to start and maintain a frozen conflict in East Ukraine which undermines Ukraine's efforts at EU intergration. Vladimir could go ahead and take responsibility for Donbass by officially annexing it and making it part of the Russian federation. If Vlad truly cares about the people of Donbass he either does this or pulls out of there for good. But that would almost guarantee he loses the rest of Ukraine forever.

Ukraine therefore are seeking any means necessary to defend themselves against Russian aggression. Understandable - im sure even you agree. They want NATO help but NATO itself and member nations don't want a part of it. This makes complete sense that Ukraine wants to defend itself.

Ukraine is fighting for its independent future here and I don't see Vlad doing much more than stoking further conflict in Donbass to maintain the status quo. It would be stupid of him to intervene in Ukraine - he knows it, the world knows it. No war will be started either. If a war was going to be started Vladimir's military working under the rebel thugs shooting 298 civilians out of the sky within Ukraine absolutely would have sparked it. That action was and will always be the most provocative action of the entire conflict and it didn't go close to starting a war.

Why would Putin want all Ukraine ? Russia doesn’t have the economy to invade and occupy. This isn’t about Russia. It’s about corrupt Ukraine, and selling more gas to Europe, keeping western population in fear. Russia doesn’t want missiles on their border and rightly so. I’d suggest Israeli style missile strikes on Ukrainian military fixtures that receive foreign weapons, no invasion at all only defence of separatist states. They can point to Israel’s actions in Syria against Iran and say we are doing the same as them.

 

[Zidane98]

Why would Putin want all Ukraine ? Russia doesn’t have the economy to invade and occupy. This isn’t about Russia. It’s about corrupt Ukraine, and selling more gas to Europe, keeping western population in fear. Russia doesn’t want missiles on their border and rightly so. I’d suggest Israeli style missile strikes on Ukrainian military fixtures that receive foreign weapons, no invasion at all only defence of separatist states. They can point to Israel’s actions in Syria against Iran and say we are doing the same as them.

Russian companies will be bypassing Ukraine altogether for gas shortly which honestly is a good thing for Ukraine.

Putin wants Ukraine to expand the sphere of Russian influence. He has said himself that the breakdown of the USSR was a tragedy.

It's interesting you think this is the problem but Russians putting surface to air missile assets in the hands of rebels under the flightpath of a busy intercontinental air route in Eastern Ukraine is not an issue whatsover.


In anycase there won't be any missiles on Ukrainian territory other than the archaic ones already in Ukraine's arsenal.

 

[awaremind]

Russian companies will be bypassing Ukraine altogether for gas shortly which honestly is a good thing for Ukraine.

Putin wants Ukraine to expand the sphere of Russian influence. He has said himself that the breakdown of the USSR was a tragedy.

It's interesting you think this is the problem but Russians putting surface to air missile assets in the hands of rebels under the flightpath of a busy intercontinental air route in Eastern Ukraine is not an issue whatsover.


In anycase there won't be any missiles on Ukrainian territory other than the archaic ones already in Ukraine's arsenal.

Why are you clinging onto this disputed isolated event? How can you pretend to make security guarantees ? Your arguments are more ridiculous than China invading Australia, China has more means and motivation.

 

[Zidane98]

Why are you clinging onto this disputed isolated event? How can you pretend to make security guarantees ? Your arguments are more ridiculous than China invading Australia, China has more means and motivation.

Isolated? Putin's thugs have a record of attacking civilian targets with significant civilian casualties. These aren't attacks on military targets either with civilians caught up in the crossfire.

Rockets kill 30 in Mariupol as rebels launch offensive

Eastern Ukraine rebels have launched an offensive on the city of Mariupol, one of their leaders says, as rockets kill and injure dozens in the port city.

www.bbc.com

Donbass civilian bus attack:

Latest from OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine based on information received as of 18:00 (Kyiv time), 16 January 2015

This report is for media and the general public. SMM continued to monitor the implementation of the provisions of the Minsk Protocol and Memorandum and the work of the Joint Centre for Control and Co-ordination (JCCC). The SMM observed a large number of ceasefire violations in the Donetsk region.

www.osce.org

Nobody can make any security guarantees, least not of all Russia who are fighting a hybrid war in Donbass.

 

[awaremind]

Isolated? Putin's thugs have a record of attacking civilian targets with significant civilian casualties. These aren't attacks on military targets either with civilians caught up in the crossfire.

Rockets kill 30 in Mariupol as rebels launch offensive

Eastern Ukraine rebels have launched an offensive on the city of Mariupol, one of their leaders says, as rockets kill and injure dozens in the port city.

www.bbc.com

Donbass civilian bus attack:

Latest from OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine based on information received as of 18:00 (Kyiv time), 16 January 2015

This report is for media and the general public. SMM continued to monitor the implementation of the provisions of the Minsk Protocol and Memorandum and the work of the Joint Centre for Control and Co-ordination (JCCC). The SMM observed a large number of ceasefire violations in the Donetsk region.

www.osce.org

Nobody can make any security guarantees, least not of all Russia who are fighting a hybrid war in Donbass.

I saw the pictures and videos of the main bus station in Donetsk littered with dead bodies of women and children after bombing raids by Kiev shortly before that plane got shot down. Tbh I think there’s a possibility Russia did it deliberately to end kievs indiscriminate air raids and bring the spotlight to what was going on there.

 

[Zidane98]

I saw the pictures and videos of the main bus station in Donetsk littered with dead bodies of women and children after bombing raids by Kiev shortly before that plane got shot down. Tbh I think there’s a possibility Russia did it deliberately to end kievs indiscriminate air raids and bring the spotlight to what was going on there.

You do love spewing Russian propaganda. Problem for you is you dont have independent OCSE verification of your Russian propaganda. Russian forces are the biggest culprits by far when it comes to indiscriminate attacks in Donbass and they are racking up quite the body count.

 

[awaremind]

A circle jerk helps nobody, I should be strengthening the nuance of your political positions and making you research so you know what you are talking about. Things are never so simple as good vs bad. There’s definitely more than one belligerent party here. And I don’t mean Russia and Belarus.


I posted those pictures on here and got banned for a week.

Real as.
I followed the propaganda of both sides, and tbh it was the propaganda of the Kiev nationalists that put me off the most. The Russian info lined up best with the reality on the ground, backed up with live videos , photos live embedded coverage, military strategy commentary that accurately predicted what was going to happen while the msm just repeated catch phrases and slogans, insulting the intelligence of its readers not providing nuanced commentary or balanced factual details. Sure the Russians promoted there view but you can see they gave thier readers more credit for intelligence.

I have a minor in public relations and mass communications so I have some level of credentials to make these statements too.

 

[Zidane98]

A circle jerk helps nobody, I should be strengthening the nuance of your political positions and making you research so you know what you are talking about. Things are never so simple as good vs bad. There’s definitely more than one belligerent party here. And I don’t mean Russia and Belarus.


I posted those pictures on here and got banned for a week.

Real as.
I followed the propaganda of both sides, and tbh it was the propaganda of the Kiev nationalists that put me off the most. The Russian info lined up best with the reality on the ground, backed up with live videos , photos live embedded coverage, military strategy commentary that accurately predicted what was going to happen while the msm just repeated catch phrases and slogans, insulting the intelligence of its readers not providing nuanced commentary or balanced factual details. Sure the Russians promoted there view but you can see they gave thier readers more credit for intelligence.

I have a minor in public relations and mass communications so I have some level of credentials to make these statements too.

What on earth are you rambling about? Zelensky is concerned. Who wouldn't be with 120,000 Russian troops on your border and the continuing Russian hybrid campaign in Donbass. He is not expecting an invasion and for good reason. It would be a step too far in Putin's attempts to regain control over Ukraine.


Instead of following propaganda you need to follow OCSE & UN sources. These organisations are not beholden to either side and will give the most balanced views and generally only deal in factual information.

Statement attributable to the Spokesman for the Secretary-General on Ukraine | United Nations Secretary-General

www.un.org

Rebels unilaterally withdrew from cease fire agreements and launched a sustained bombardment on Maruiopol civilian areas. This is not propaganda coming from Ukraine either as Russia used its UN Veto power to prevent a universal condemnation of the attack by all UN members.

Instead you choose to believe tass.com, RT.com and Sputnik news. Putin could expend Russia's nuclear arsenal on Kiev and you would find a way to blame Ukraine for it, let's be honest.

 

[Zidane98]

Russia’s Possible Invasion of Ukraine

If peace talks fail, the Russian military has several options to invade Ukraine through northern, central, and southern routes, raising critical questions for the United States and its NATO allies according to analysis by the CSIS International Security Program.

www.csis.org

This is actually a very good article.


The most likely scenario is Russia entering Donbass formally or strengthening its support for rebel forces in Donbass to provide a further headache for Ukraine.


Analysis shows a full scale invasion very unlikely. There just isn't the manpower for it from Russia's side and it would be political suicide to do so.


Russia's demand for Ukraine to return to the Russian fold is very unlikely to be met. Belarus & Georgia will continue as Russian client states.

 

[awaremind]

Russia’s Possible Invasion of Ukraine

If peace talks fail, the Russian military has several options to invade Ukraine through northern, central, and southern routes, raising critical questions for the United States and its NATO allies according to analysis by the CSIS International Security Program.

www.csis.org

This is actually a very good article.


The most likely scenario is Russia entering Donbass formally or strengthening its support for rebel forces in Donbass to provide a further headache for Ukraine.


Analysis shows a full scale invasion very unlikely. There just isn't the manpower for it from Russia's side and it would be political suicide to do so.


Russia's demand for Ukraine to return to the Russian fold is very unlikely to be met. Belarus & Georgia will continue as Russian client states.

It’s definately a detailed and well funded article but it’s essentially propaganda from a nato think tank that gives more credit for intelligence. I still think a stand off missile attack on foreign troops or weapon shipments like Israel does to Syria would be the most effective thing for Russia to do as its humiliating and resolve testing but not quite as risky as a ground incursion. Also gives them a chance to hone their high tech. Turkey also used this strategy against the Kurds in Syria and Iraq.

 

[ChampRevesby]

History break: The western part of what is Ukraine belonged to the Habsburgs. The eastern part belonged to the Romanovs. In 1654, the Cossack Rada (the basis of Ukraine) joined Muscovy to form the basis of Russia.

 

[awaremind]

History break: The western part of what is Ukraine belonged to the Habsburgs. The eastern part belonged to the Romanovs. In 1654, the Cossack Rada (the basis of Ukraine) joined Muscovy to form the basis of Russia.

In a lot of the media in both sides I read early on they referred to each other as “brother nation” and families are on both sides of the border.

 

[Saint]

Putin doesn't want to have to invade Ukraine. Just wants to scare Nato/EU enough that they stop trying to have more influence/trade ties with Ukraine, so that it can be left to Russia's sphere of influence.

Not sure it's working since their aggression has seen Ukraine flooded with UK/US arms. Perhaps in the long-run it will pay off for Putin.

 

[JackFlash]

Russia will go into Ukraine no matter what and i expect it will be sometime in early February? The USA has promised much and delivered very little since 1990. Putin is itching to get at a country that has a huge Russian population and is sitting right on his doorstep, 8000 troops won't mean a thing when it comes to the crunch as Putin also knows the Biden administration is weak and the President is a rambling, babbling, mentally unfit buffoon. If Putin wants Ukraine, he will take it when it suits, he's just "Biden" his time.

 

[Zidane98]

Can see Russia going into Ukraine but only to further bolster the rebels in Eastern Ukraine. The only winner from the war in East Ukraine is Putin as it undermines Ukranian independence efforts and Ukranian efforts to establish ties with Europe. It is for this reason that he will never annex East Ukraine and take responsibility either as that would leave the rest of Ukraine free to pursue European ties. And the price to pay is absolute misery for the remaining population that can't or don't want to leave the area.

 

[Zidane98]

Putin doesn't want to have to invade Ukraine. Just wants to scare Nato/EU enough that they stop trying to have more influence/trade ties with Ukraine, so that it can be left to Russia's sphere of influence.

Not sure it's working since their aggression has seen Ukraine flooded with UK/US arms. Perhaps in the long-run it will pay off for Putin.

Putin's a relic from the cold war era. His approach isn't working as anti Russian sentiment is higher than ever in Ukraine. He would be better off going down the diplomacy route and reestablishing close relationships with Ukraine in a bilateral manner.

Putin will never be able to stop EU integration of Ukraine. It makes sense for Ukraine to strengthen EU trading ties considering its location & size. If he plays nice he may be able to get Ukraine to agree to never apply for NATO membership (not that NATO wants Ukraine) and may even be able to convince Ukraine to join the customs union.

 

[Saint]

Putin's a relic from the cold war era. His approach isn't working as anti Russian sentiment is higher than ever in Ukraine. He would be better off going down the diplomacy route and reestablishing close relationships with Ukraine in a bilateral manner.

Putin will never be able to stop EU integration of Ukraine. It makes sense for Ukraine to strengthen EU trading ties considering its location & size. If he plays nice he may be able to get Ukraine to agree to never apply for NATO membership (not that NATO wants Ukraine) and may even be able to convince Ukraine to join the customs union.

Agree.

The world is too interconnected for war and violent interjection. It's far too mutually destructive for Russia to invade Ukraine. I don't think anybody's buying that he will. RT is a better conduit for Ukrainian influence than the Russian military.

 

[Hornberger]

Putin doesn't want to have to invade Ukraine. Just wants to scare Nato/EU enough that they stop trying to have more influence/trade ties with Ukraine, so that it can be left to Russia's sphere of influence.

Not sure it's working since their aggression has seen Ukraine flooded with UK/US arms. Perhaps in the long-run it will pay off for Putin.

It does seem to be a doing a very good job of firmly entrenching poland and the baltic countries within the US sphere of influence.

 

[Power Raid]

I'd love to know Putin's end game here. other than trying to build the legacy of re-establishing russia with soviet union borders

As he knows when he steps down or is removed from the presidency, he will likely be executed (his own words) and his assets stripped. So like any smart man, he would keep his funds in Switzerland and Washington.

It will be a delicate balance ahead.

 

[Saint]

It does seem to be a doing a very good job of firmly entrenching poland and the baltic countries within the US sphere of influence.

Yeah, seems to be backfiring for Putin as the baltics band together.

He'll always have Belarus.

 

[Zidane98]

This is a worry

America's neo-Nazi terrorists have a powerful new patron: Vladimir Putin | Opinion | Opinion

***

www.haaretz.com

Neo Nazi groups are being harboured by Putin in Russia. Some of them even fought on the rebels side in the Donbass hybrid war.