US Election 2020: President Elect Biden and VP Elect Harris

[Chief]

This thread is continued in... The Aftermath

US Election 2020: President Biden and VP Harris - The Aftermath

Now we have most of the main players confirmed its time to start the thread on this Pence I assume will be Trumps VP - but I will leave the ? until confirmed https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20210120T09&p0=900&msg=Inauguration+2021&font=sanserif

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Dusty Goat]

And?
Im sure most models of polling use the same or similar methodologies to sample what peoples voting intentions are Not exactly rocket science ?

There is far more margin for error with polling in terms of international elections, which is why it’s been wrong more than right in recent times. You’re clutching at straws here I’m afraid.

 

[Blue1980]

The 2019 UK election polls were off? I don't recall that!

If the US election goes as predicted by polls, would be willing to offer credit?

Qld election yesterday went to labor as expected.

 

[Blue1980]

Florida should be announced on the night. Trump still favoured to win so if Biden wins there it's over.

According to 538, Biden favoured in Florida 63% chance.

 

[NSWCROW]

well predictions are allowing people to have a voice which if I recall is why people vote in the first place...
or is it that predictions are dissatisfying to most people in which case the majority of those who will vote are
having a donkey vote.. ie I don't give a sh*t and so you will wear the consequences of my not stupidity but my
'joke is on you dude'...

Whoever wins , someone's gonna look like a donkey.

 

[Dusty Goat]

Whoever wins , someone's gonna look like a donkey.

You’d know all about that, wouldn’t you crow?

 

[Blue1980]

None of those occasions that the polls were right that you speak of lived in a time like now where we have a plethora of access to information and media.

I’m only going off recent times because that’s far more relevant than any of the times you speak of.

So basically all state elections last few years and UK election 2019 (qld yesterday) aren’t recent enough for you?

 

[Blue1980]

Which tactics do you think works better for Trump - the intimidation, the lies, or the voter suppression?

Why not all of them?

 

[Financialpanther]

Whoever wins , someone's gonna look like a donkey.

Most likely America

 

[NSWCROW]

You’d know all about that, wouldn’t you crow?

Anyone know who the **** this campaigner is meant to be ?

 

[Blue1980]

We’re talking international politics here aren’t we?

You used Australian federal election in your example, keep up with your own argument.

UK election 2019, Boris won as expected.

Senate results 2018 in US largely as expected.

 

[Dusty Goat]

So basically all state elections last few years and UK election 2019 (qld yesterday) aren’t recent enough for you?

Do you understand the complexity of polling for international voting as opposed to state?

 

[mellowyellow]

There is far more margin for error with polling in terms of international elections, which is why it’s been wrong more than right in recent times. You’re clutching at straws here I’m afraid.

You can argue errors of margin all you like but all the major polls have been rock solid for Biden and the Democrat party all year, and these latest ones as of this final week are predicting a Democrat majority So I think it is you who s the one clutching at straws.

 

[Ghost Patrol]

Anyone know who the fu** this campaigner is meant to be ?

Dunno, is it school holidays already?

 

[Dusty Goat]

You can argue errors of margin all you like but all the major polls have been rock solid for Biden and the Democrat party all year, and these latest ones as of this final week are predicting a Democrat majority So I think it is you who s the one clutching at straws.

2016 all over again. I’ll be sure to bring up your straw clutching one the results are official.

 

[mellowyellow]

2016 all over again. I’ll be sure to bring up your straw clutching one the results are official.

I;ll be here either way You can do as you please

 

[happy_eagle]

2020 vs 2016 at this stage in the process.



(note: the only one really wrong here was Wisconsin)

 

[Blue1980]

Do you understand the complexity of polling for international voting as opposed to state?

Explain the UK 2019 result going as expected then, or NZ recently.

Aside from you wanting Trump to win what makes you think he will, what marginal states will he win?

I mean anything can happen, but probabilities it would be like expecting in 2020 North to beat Geelong.

 

[Blue1980]

2016 all over again. I’ll be sure to bring up your straw clutching one the results are official.

Leicester won the premier league in 2016, all bookmakers wrong.

Leicester will obviously win the premier league again this year, based on same logic.

 

[Dusty Goat]

Leicester won the premier league in 2016, all bookmakers wrong.

Leicester will obviously win the premier league again this year, based on same logic.

Weird comparison. But whatever helps you sleep.

 

[Blue1980]

Do you understand the complexity of polling for international voting as opposed to state?

You do realise there is polling individually done in 50 individual states to make up a total amount for the electoral college?

 

[Blue1980]

Weird comparison. But whatever helps you sleep.

Your logic is because expected results didn’t happen sometimes means they will be wrong again.

Look trump could win, but it’s not likely.

As I mentioned it’s a 1 in 10 chance roughly, last time was like trump getting a royal flush, 3 states decided by a total of 78k votes.

There are a lot of factors different to 2016 this time as well. I can name at least 5 if you like.

 

[mellowyellow]

Your logic is because expected results didn’t happen sometimes means they will be wrong again.

Look trump could win, but it’s not likely.

As I mentioned it’s a 1 in 10 chance roughly, last time was like trump getting a royal flush, 3 states decided by a total of 78k votes.

There are a lot of factors different to 2016 this time as well. I can name at least 5 if you like.

There really is only one major issue that will see him voted out, all others are incidental

 

[FireKrakouer]

Which tactics do you think works better for Trump - the intimidation, the lies, or the voter suppression?

I think his appeal to the working class re energy policy has been his best tactic. On subjects such as fracking, Joe and Kamala flip flop like a carp out of water.

 

[Blue1980]

There really is only one major issue that will see him voted out, all others are incidental

1. Covid (the biggest single factor as you alluded to)

2. People have experienced trump now for real

3. Hillary not running, rust belt states Biden should do a lot better in

4. Any complacency of democrat voters from last time has been shaken out of them, hence record voting so far

5. Doubling down on base constantly, Trump hasn’t expanded his support and will have lost moderates.

Blaming covid saying woe is Donald doesn’t really make sense. Every state govt in Australia, even Vic has strong polls to sitting governments.

Trump has taken a bad situation and poured petrol on it.

 

[Blue1980]

I think his appeal to the working class re energy policy has been his best tactic. On subjects such as fracking, Joe and Kamala flip flop like a carp out of water.

Didn’t you say Biden was winning the other day?