US Election 2020: President Elect Biden and VP Elect Harris

The Next President and VP will be?

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This thread is continued in... The Aftermath

US Election 2020: President Biden and VP Harris - The Aftermath

Now we have most of the main players confirmed its time to start the thread on this Pence I assume will be Trumps VP - but I will leave the ? until confirmed https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20210120T09&p0=900&msg=Inauguration+2021&font=sanserif
www.bigfooty.com www.bigfooty.com
 
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This feels like Richmond beating North Melbourne in extra time by 10 points with 30 seconds left but the game is delayed by an hour for some reason.. with Roos supporters saying they only lost because of the umpires.

Entirely expected and FFS just get it over with!!!!
 
DaRick said:
I see things somewhat differently.

1) The Dems have a bunch of states which are gimmes (New England, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, West Coast) but many of the traditional Repub strongholds (Georgia, NC, Texas, Arizona) are now clearly under threat due to demographic changes (age, interstate migration from places like California, increasing numbers of Latinos). Eventually something has to give, and it may give faster than you think because Orthodox Repubs offer minorities and young people SFA.
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Agreed about the traditional RNC strongholds turning purple but for 2024 the only tradtional red state that will be live for the DNC is NC. Florida will also be live because it always is. Texas maybe one day but not for a while yet. Looking at the RNC and they will be targeting Penn (20 votes), Wis (10), Mich (16), Arizona (11), Nevada (6), Georgia (16) and maybe Minnesota (10) and Maine (4). Penn + a mid sized state + a small state will get them to 270 if they hold everything. Arizona is largely a John McCain based protest vote. The reapportionment of the House of Reps after the census could end up being the decisive factor in 2024.

You're 100% right the DNC need to start engaging with minorities and offering more than just a few promises every four years.

DaRick said:
2) Mike Pence is an orthodox Repub, basically the evangelical equivalent of Mitt Romney, only without the RomneyCare. Sure, he lacks Trump's negative partisanship, but he also lacks the ability to fire up his base, he lacks that perceived potential for reform that Trump had, and he lacks the working-class behaviourisms and machismo that appealed to many working-class whites and Latino males. Even a few black men were won over by Trump due to that. I don't see many of those types voting for someone like Pence. Sure, he'll have the evangelicals under lock and key, but Trump did as well.
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Absolutely agree about this. Pence will not get near the enthusiastic support of Trump's base. And one thing working against the RNC is already a big backlash online about them not supporting Trump enough. Whether that lasts four years I don't know - so it's impossible to know yet if those voters will eventually heal with the RNC is just stop voting.
DaRick said:
3) Incumbency is a thing, and it's unlikely that there will be a pandemic + severe recession to damn Biden the way it ultimately did Trump.
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I did read Biden say he will not be running in 2024 if he wins. But in the scheme of politicians flip flopping on what they say, this would rank as no surprise. Whether he is capable of running in 2024 is more to the point - it would take him through to 85 at the end of a potential second term. That's an outrageous age to still be president of the most important country on the planet.

Assuming he steps down, don't know if the incumbency advantage will float over to the new candidate. That will almost come down entirely to the handling of the virus over the next four years (hopefully it's not around for that ****ing long)
 
This "close election" narrative is a bit of a misnomer tbh.

If this was a standard election like 2016 it would've been called on the night and everyone would be saying it's a comfortable win. Not a landslide obviously, but all of these states in the rust belt would've been called so early, including Pennsylvania.
 
The Passenger said:
I did read Biden say he will not be running in 2024 if he wins. But in the scheme of politicians flip flopping on what they say, this would rank as no surprise. Whether he is capable of running in 2024 is more to the point - it would take him through to 85 at the end of a potential second term. That's an outrageous age to still be president of the most important country on the planet.

Assuming he steps down, don't know if the incumbency advantage will float over to the new candidate. That will almost come down entirely to the handling of the virus over the next four years (hopefully it's not around for that ******* long)
Click to expand...

Ill wager Harris will run in 2024
 
Too many ads on CNN. Any better coverage to watch online?
 
The Passenger said:
Agreed about the traditional RNC strongholds turning purple but for 2024 the only tradtional red state that will be live for the DNC is NC. Florida will also be live because it always is. Texas maybe one day but not for a while yet. Looking at the RNC and they will be targeting Penn (20 votes), Wis (10), Mich (16), Arizona (11), Nevada (6), Georgia (16) and maybe Minnesota (10) and Maine (4). Penn + a mid sized state + a small state will get them to 270 if they hold everything. Arizona is largely a John McCain based protest vote. The reapportionment of the House of Reps after the census could end up being the decisive factor in 2024.

You're 100% right the DNC need to start engaging with minorities and offering more than just a few promises every four years.


Absolutely agree about this. Pence will not get near the enthusiastic support of Trump's base. And one thing working against the RNC is already a big backlash online about them not supporting Trump enough. Whether that lasts four years I don't know - so it's impossible to know yet if those voters will eventually heal with the RNC is just stop voting.

I did read Biden say he will not be running in 2024 if he wins. But in the scheme of politicians flip flopping on what they say, this would rank as no surprise. Whether he is capable of running in 2024 is more to the point - it would take him through to 85 at the end of a potential second term. That's an outrageous age to still be president of the most important country on the planet.

Assuming he steps down, don't know if the incumbency advantage will float over to the new candidate. That will almost come down entirely to the handling of the virus over the next four years (hopefully it's not around for that ******* long)
Click to expand...
I think longer term, maybe not next election cycle, Texas will be in play. There is a demographic shift in the south which is causing long term trouble for the Republicans and I think will change the focus of elections.
 
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