Prediction Walking the tightrope - The Run Home

[SeanM]

No! I'm happy to get a top 4 pick in the draft this time. In fact I made myself comfortable with the fact that we'll have one for a change. Should we make this sudden Richmond like 'brave' charge home, to finish 9th to 12th, I won't be impressed.

I would rather finish 9th than 15th.

Watching the footage of the players celebrating the win over the bulldogs. There was a lot of team spirit and satisfaction in playing well as a team and beating a top side.

Our senior players seem to have competitive personalities. I don't think they will be happy to tank the rest of the season. So I think it could be a risk to do so.

 

[Tuco]

I am only comfortable coming 15th if we a genuinely the 15th best side. And to determine that I expect my side to fight its guts out for a full season.

If after trying its best we come 15th, I'll take the draft pick accordingly and support the team for giving it their all.

Now in a down year I would expect some senior players to step aside for some kids as any hope of finals fades away. That's not tanking in my book. But I sure as hell expect those players who run out in our colours to play every game to win.

 

[legend166]

So I know I just said not to worry about the other sides and everything, but basically if we win next week it's extremely likely we'll only be one win out of the eight. With 10 games left.

 

[Tuco]

So I know I just said not to worry about the other sides and everything, but basically if we win next week it's extremely likely we'll only be one win out of the eight. With 10 games left.

Huge game

 

[Kirkswan]

I am only comfortable coming 15th if we a genuinely the 15th best side. And to determine that I expect my side to fight its guts out for a full season.

If after trying its best we come 15th, I'll take the draft pick accordingly and support the team for giving it their all.

Now in a down year I would expect some senior players to step aside for some kids as any hope of finals fades away. That's not tanking in my book. But I sure as hell expect those players who run out in our colours to play every game to win.

When you say you would expect some senior players to step aside for some of the kids, what exactly do you mean? The team is chosen by the selection committee, and the individual players cannot choose not to play as they are under contract. Do I have it wrong?

 

[Tuco]

When you say you would expect some senior players to step aside for some of the kids, what exactly do you mean? The team is chosen by the selection committee, and the individual players cannot choose not to play as they are under contract. Do I have it wrong?

Yes. To clarify...if someone is carrying injury, needs surgery, or is no longer part of the long term plan, I would expect the club to tap a couple of blokes on the shoulder and either manage them into the next year or have the hard talk if they're no longer best 22 - not expect them to step down themselves.

 

[Kirkswan]

Yes. To clarify...if someone is carrying injury, needs surgery, or is no longer part of the long term plan, I would expect the club to tap a couple of blokes on the shoulder and either manage them into the next year or have the hard talk if they're no longer best 22 - not expect them to step down themselves.

Oh, definitely agree with that!

But we are not gone yet, and I am still living in hope!

 

[Tuco]

Oh, definitely agree with that!

But we are not gone yet, and I am still living in hope!

Yeah. I'm keeping the dream alive.

I was commenting on the idea of being satisfied with a higher pick in hypothetical terms only.

 

[sataris]

Huge game

#dangergame

 

[Ticky009]

Huge game

I'd feel more confident if our record for these types of games was better. It isn't

 

[CheapCharlie]

The evenness of the competition is helping enormously.

Every time a club in the 4-8 position is defeated by a club under it, that is to Sydney's advantage of making the 8.

 

[Tuco]

I'd feel more confident if our record for these types of games was better. It isn't

 

[GoTheSwannies]

i have absolute faith we'll make finals. its a very topsy turvy year across ghe board so anything can happen.

i back the competitive spirit of the likes of jpk, buddy, hanners etc. and think we'll give it a huge crack.

thats all i can ask for

 

[momentbymoment]

My bold statement - we will make the finals if AA plays a role.
The kids can't maintain the pressure football every game for the rest of the season. We need the X factor that AA brings. Not sure how that happens tho ...

 

[JZ_Skitzo]

If:
#lolnorth win their next 2 games (Saints, Dogs),
Melb beat the Dogs this week,
Saints beat the Suns (IF Suns win this week) next week,

Pending percentage, Swans could be in 8th upon conclusion of round 14.

It is quite possible, but it is also quite possible that North doesn't help out the Swans.

 

[MickyG]

Round 13 vs Richmond (MCG)
Round 14 vs Essendon (SCG)
Round 15 vs Melbourne (MCG)
Round 16 vs Gold Coast (SCG)
Round 17 vs GWS (Spotless)
Round 18 vs St Kilda (SCG)
Round 19 vs Hawthorn (MCG)
Round 20 vs Geelong (Simonds)
Round 21 vs Fremantle (SCG)
Round 22 vs Adelaide (AO)
Round 23 vs Carlton (SCG)

We are going to end Round 12 essentially 2 games outside the 8 (or 8 points) so that means we need to win 2 more games in the backhalf of the season than Bulldogs, West Coast, Fremantle and Melbourne.

It isn't an easy run though as we have to play the current top 4 at least once (GWS, Adelaide, Geelong and Richmond) and we also have to play Fremantle who are as we speak in the top 8. So we need to play 5 of the top 8 in the back half of the season.

We are on 4 wins at the moment, and we need a minimum of 12 wins to make the finals, preferably 13 wins to guarantee it. That means in the final 11 games we need to win at least 8 of them, preferably 9. So given the preferable scenario, that means we can only drop 2 games for the rest of the year.

To me we can't lose the next month. We need to beat Richmond, Essendon, Melbourne, Gold Coast. Lose one of them and the maths just get too hard.

To be honest I am expecting us to lose against GWS at Spotless, so that will be one of our 2 loses right there. That means we will have to go from rounds 18 to 23 only losing 1 game in total. St Kilda and Hawthorn are must wins, as is Fremantle and Carlton. The tough 2 games in this group of gams is Geelong at Simonds and Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval. We can only drop 1 of those games if we want to make the 8.

So my question is, do you think we can do it?

Swans are 4 - 7. To make the 8 I think 11 wins and good percentage will do it this year. That means 7 - 4 for the second half of the year.

The effect from the expansion of the competition has played out leaving just the one team with a ridiculously good list and the rest being closer than has been the case for some years.

These 5 teams aren't in the top 8 so we need to beat them:

Round 16 vs Gold Coast (SCG)
Round 18 vs St Kilda (SCG)
Round 19 vs Hawthorn (MCG)
Round 21 vs Fremantle (SCG)
Round 23 vs Carlton (SCG)

and then two of these:
Round 13 vs Richmond (MCG)
Round 14 vs Essendon (SCG)
Round 15 vs Melbourne (MCG)
Round 17 vs GWS (Spotless)
Round 20 vs Geelong (Simonds)
Round 22 vs Adelaide (AO)

It’s likely there will be a loss from those outside the 8 which would then require 3 wins from those in the eight.

Richmond are our bogey side especially at the MCG. Losses for Essendon and Melbourne to the Swans could cost them a finals spot (8 point games?). For the Swans the next three weeks could be season defining. Making the 8 is doable.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Logical changes are AA for Marsh and Rohan for Hayward. Possibly Dawson/Robinson for Towers.

Florent shouldn't get another game unless there's an injury.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Swans have arguably the best 22 in the league, so if we make the finals we're as good a chance as any. Need to finish 5th though to maximise our chances.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Logical changes are AA for Marsh and Rohan for Hayward. Possibly Dawson/Robinson for Towers.

Florent shouldn't get another game unless there's an injury.

Why is Hayward going out? He's still contributing for starters, and we are turtle slow as it is, and we don't need less classy players.

I'm not Towers' biggest fan but he's ben good since his recall. Rohan can wait his turn and so can Dawson.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Why is Hayward going out? He's still contributing for starters, and we are turtle slow as it is, and we don't need less classy players.

I'm not Towers' biggest fan but he's ben good since his recall. Rohan can wait his turn and so can Dawson.

Those are just the obvious ones. Melican stays in for the rest of the season with Cameron going down

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Those are just the obvious ones. Melican stays in for the rest of the season with Cameron going down

Not sure Hayward going out is obvious at all.

 

[Wolftone]

D-Day would have never happened with that kind of mentality

so you are saying all the coaches in the AFL would have been sacked before D Day for not planning ahead?

 

[Jewelsbon]

Logical changes are AA for Marsh and Rohan for Hayward. Possibly Dawson/Robinson for Towers.

Florent shouldn't get another game unless there's an injury.

None of those seem logical to me. Three changes after the team has had its most cohesive game all season? As I said elsewhere, the only change I would think reasonable would be Rohan for Marsh to add more speed to the side, but I wouldn't be upset at all if there were no changes.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

None of those seem logical to me. Three changes after the team has had its most cohesive game all season? As I said elsewhere, the only change I would think reasonable would be Rohan for Marsh to add more speed to the side, but I wouldn't be upset at all if there were no changes.

Bingo. Won't be surprised to see no changes, and at the same time as you said won't be surprised to see Rohan for Marsh. That is it though.

 

[anotherletdown]

Swans are 4 - 7. To make the 8 I think 11 wins and good percentage will do it this year. That means 7 - 4 for the second half of the year.

The effect from the expansion of the competition has played out leaving just the one team with a ridiculously good list and the rest being closer than has been the case for some years.

These 5 teams aren't in the top 8 so we need to beat them:

Round 16 vs Gold Coast (SCG)
Round 18 vs St Kilda (SCG)
Round 19 vs Hawthorn (MCG)
Round 21 vs Fremantle (SCG)
Round 23 vs Carlton (SCG)

and then two of these:
Round 13 vs Richmond (MCG)
Round 14 vs Essendon (SCG)
Round 15 vs Melbourne (MCG)
Round 17 vs GWS (Spotless)
Round 20 vs Geelong (Simonds)
Round 22 vs Adelaide (AO)

It’s likely there will be a loss from those outside the 8 which would then require 3 wins from those in the eight.

Richmond are our bogey side especially at the MCG. Losses for Essendon and Melbourne to the Swans could cost them a finals spot (8 point games?). For the Swans the next three weeks could be season defining. Making the 8 is doable.

That's a great break down of games still to play.

If we are to play finals then those two wins from the bottom bracket must come from our next three games - Richmond, Essendon, Melbourne. If we can harm them while improving ourselves the finals really are on. It's feeling like a must win this weekend.... considering our position on the table it'll probably be that way for the rest of the season