Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 2

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This is a sensitive area for some. With that in mind, I'm going to remind a few posters a few things:
  • personal attacks are against forum rules. From this point, any attacks that are directed at another poster will be treated with a warning, then infractions and threadbans if it continues.
  • the spread of misinformation is also against the rules. This is taken very seriously by moderation, and you will be asked to support your opinion from time to time. If you cannot satisfy this, you will be provided an opportunity to retract your post; if you do not, you will receive an infraction and a threadban on that basis.
This is a forum for adults, and I'd appreciate you all treating each other appropriately.
 
I just read a post on a Russian TG telegram website where InformNapalm (a pro-Ukrainian activist group within Ukraine - I think) claim to have worked out who the commander was that could be pinned leading those troops who would have been responsible for the Bucha atrocities.
The post doxxes the person's name, email, address & phone number.
It's not confirmed anywhere else I can see that this info is correct, so I won't link or quote it here. But I will put aside for later.

So to fill the gap, here's a shop window in Dublin.


I've got a ton of Ukranian friends - this guys details are all over instagram and telegram already.

Pictures and details of the units who were 'fighting' in Bucha as well.

Ukraine re-introduced national service for males after the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Service is for 18 months.

Ukraine’s army has been growing significantly post 2014 which makes it more difficult to equip reservists. Especially as Ukraine has a small economy (around 75% of the size of New Zealand’s).

Yep, that's right. Since 2014, the UA military has been much better equipped and trained - but they've had something like 150,000 people return home, and basically every adult male, join the territorial army since this started.

The military is getting first call on the good gear, so these guys are often poorly equipped - they've got rifles etc, but not much else. Some mates of mine have kicked in with this - they've supplied a dozen Motorola spec radios, a couple of military grade GPS units, a 15kw Diesel Generator, 2 drones and a bunch of vests and helmets.

Super common to see Ukranians fund raising for this as well - for the same reason, their family/friends have got guns, but little in the way of other equipment.
 
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That commander wont be amongst the living for much longer.

Seems this was the bloke



Ukraine have also listed the names of all the other alleged Russian murdering rapists that were there.

 
A pretty good rundown on how the world biggest paper tiger army was defeated in the battle of Kyiv with both their Plan A and Plan B failing.

Wasn't exactly some genius planning on their behalf, they were trying to rehash old battle strategy however were found out coming up against a competent enemy.

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Man, moved a long way from feeling sorry for Russian soldiers ordered over the border for something they knew nothing about that was the most prevalent in first week and a bit.
Looks like they found their own ****ed up purposes.
They behaved a lot worse than what could have first imagined.
May justice find it's way, in some form to every last one of these cowardly ****ers.
 
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Man, moved a long way from feeling sorry for Russian soldiers ordered over the border for something they knew nothing about that was the most prevalent in first week and a bit.
Looks like they found their own f’ed up purposes.
They behaved a lot worse that what could have first imagined.
May justice find it's way, in some form to ever last one of these cowardly f***ers.

Yep, any empathy that I may have had for them back then has long dissipated.

They now realise why they are there and what they are doing. Add to that what they are doing to the local populace I wish each and every one of them the worst outcome.
 
I'm ignorant as to the ways of war, but I think every civilian needs to be a soldier over there in Donbass at least. Get a gun if you can, or a knife, or a molotov, helmets, etc. So you can at least defend yourselves. Maybe they were already doing that. I just see too many seemingly unprepared civilians on the news. Their courage is beyond impressive, but I wonder why they're not armed or properly attired for combat, etc.
So all I can say is that with my friend, who is female, her boyfriend is not 'forced' in any way to take up arms, although I am sure there is probably quite a bit of peer pressure. The only actual compulsory signup for non-military - currently for Ukrainian (men) - is that if they show up at the border wishing to cross, they are turned back. It's for this reason, he's still in Ukraine and my pal won't leave because she doesn't want to leave him. They are fortunate (so far) as despite living super close to the capital, there has been no shelling nor fighting in their town (closest was 35km away where there was some shelling but again no fighting in the town). I agree it could be a different overall attitude in the Donbass.

It feels chilling to me that amost all recent combat or shelling events have been located essentially across the exact front Russia claimed they have chosen to remove to : Kharkiv, Mikolaev and also at Odessa.
 
Comparing image search results of Bucha between search engines Google and Yandex (I've shrunk the images to fit better here, but they can be viewed larger size in TG) :
bucha_1_google.jpg bucha_2_yandex.jpg

Article from (Ukrainian) Unian newspaper speaks a little more about this.

Netizens paid attention to what images the Google and Yandex search engine produces when entering the query "Bucha".

So, in the Russian search engine there are no pictures of the bombed-out suburb of Kyiv, corpses on the streets and other photographic evidence of the war crimes of the Russian army. That is, "Yandex" blocked all photos of Bucha after the atrocities of the Russian occupiers there.

For comparison, Google images only show photos of destruction, not peaceful Bucha.

Text search in "Yandex" also surprised: it shows only the news of the Russian state media that all the evidence of the atrocities of the Russian occupiers is allegedly fake.
(articles continues further to remind us what a piece of shit Lavrov is)


And after this discrepancy began to do the rounds, Yandex changed their tune. Small mercies :



"Yandex reacted"
 
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Seen video of Zelenskiy visit to Bucha today to see with his own eyes.
Look on face was someone that find it hard to believe what is the reality.
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Seen video of Zelenskiy visit to Bucha today to see with his own eyes.
Look on face was someone that find it hard to believe what is the reality.
JBW2xnfUJW8ZWoKhRk3fqZEXfo3ykvpXxuAaTyCg2yvKTDMuIul-SzDsK1qpkdLcweIYdIGr-gtY=s640-nd-v1
"A BBC correspondent asked Zelensky if he still thinks it is possible to discuss peace with Russia.
Reply : "Yes, because Ukraine must find peace. We are in Europe of the 21st century. We will continue our diplomatic and military efforts," Zelensky said."
He's an inspiration.
 
Sanctions versus product availability and store shelves in Russia

From a mailing list to which I subscribe, from one of the non-State Russian news sources which have been either forcibly closed or are closely pressured on the matters on which they report. The writer asked the source's editor to remain anonymous, and I've also endeavoured to remove references to the news source as well. I can pass on the details Directly if wanted.

Some moments I feel are important in case tl;dr sets in:
  • "Can Russia feed itself on its own basic products alone? Unfortunately no. ... shortage of potatoes, dairy products, vegetables, fruits and berries. And also - salt ...."
  • "And by the end of 2022, food inflation will be about 30-40%."
  • "... unlikely that this will lead to empty shelves, but by the beginning of summer the choice in stores will become noticeably smaller ..."
  • "Russians are buying up not only sugar, but also buckwheat, flour, rice and canned meat."
  • "Russia is indeed able to provide itself with a large part of the basic products. But ... but they (that is, we) will eat worse. And very soon you will have to forget about the unlimited choice of goods on the shelves."
(There's also a slightly expanded analysis of the sugar issue which might help outline just what is going on there.)

The editor included this blurb before hopping into the piece:
Even before, food was not the cheapest pleasure for Russians. According to Rosstat data for 2020, almost half of Russian families spent from 30% to 50% of the budget on it. And a year ago, in February 2021, the American agency Bloomberg included Russia among the world's food "hot spots". The list includes those states whose population spends a significant part of their income on food (and is concerned about rising food prices). Together with Russia, India, Brazil, Turkey and Nigeria were included in the ranking.

Now the situation is getting even worse, and radically. Already in the first seven days after the start of the war, weekly inflation amounted to 2.2% and became a record since 1998. No wonder: crises and wars have always provoked famine, or at least a shortage of basic products. Prices are rising, production is disrupted, supply chains are interrupted, crops are dying.

({this article} ... written by a business journalist who has been studying food prices, agriculture and the Russian consumer market for more than six years. This text will tell you what to prepare for. We read about sanctions, inflation, the withdrawal of large Western producers from the Russian market - but we have yet to see many of the consequences of all this.)

--- It's a long write-up ---

It seems that not a day goes by without some Western company announcing its exit from the Russian market.

After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, major players one by one stop or freeze their work in Russia. Including the manufacturers of those products that we regularly put in our carts in the supermarket (and without which, frankly, it is difficult to imagine our life).

Thus, PepsiCo, Nestle and Procter & Gamble, the largest manufacturers of consumer goods, have joined the sanctions. They refused not only to supply part of their goods to the country, but also to invest in production in Russia.

Some players, such as Finnish dairy producers Valio and bread makers Fazer, have left altogether. Fast food is also in business: in March, McDonald's closed 850 of its Russian restaurants.

Authorities like to say that sanctions are a time of dizzying opportunities for domestic producers. However, so far both Russian companies and those foreign suppliers that have not joined the sanctions have faced dizzying problems - it has become very expensive and difficult to import the necessary raw materials and goods.

It's not just the cheaper ruble - there was an unprecedented failure in logistics. The largest sea carriers and several European ports refused to work with Russia. Air traffic came to a virtual halt after the European Union, the United States and other countries banned Russian aircraft from flying over their territory (and Russia introduced mirror measures). Transportation of goods into the country by road is also disruptive due to delays at the border.

Rising prices and "battles for sugar" in supermarkets are the first consequences of the sanctions. But, alas, not the last - the main effect of what happened is actually not yet visible. The four main scenarios that every Russian consumer will face in the coming months are summarized in this text. They were identified and described: Oleg Buklemishev, director of the Center for Economic Policy Research, Dmitry Ivanov, project manager at the NEO Center consulting company, Sergey Mironov, founder of the Meat & Fish chain of Russian restaurants, and Mikhail Goncharov, founder of the Teremok pancake chain. And also - four experts who wished to remain anonymous. One of them is a representative of a sugar company, another works as a retail consultant, the third is engaged in agricultural analytics, and the fourth leads the association of food producers and suppliers.

Some of these scenarios are pretty obvious. For example, one does not need to be an expert to predict the further rise in prices for products or the disappearance of certain categories of goods from the shelves. Detailing is important: the material will tell you in detail what exactly will rise in price (and when), and what will disappear altogether. In addition, one of the chapters of the text is devoted to fast food and will explain how the departure of Western chains will change the Russian catering market.



Prices will rise noticeably again (and very soon). The discounts will disappear.

What has already happened → In the first seven days after the outbreak of hostilities, weekly inflation was 2.2%, the highest since 1998. And for the month that new sanctions were introduced, prices, according to official statistics alone, increased by 7.6%.

Sugar became the leader of the rise in price: the average price for it in stores increased by 41.2% over four weeks. Among other staples that have risen sharply in price are vegetables and fruits: onions (39.3%), bananas (32.5%), white cabbage (30.5%), tomatoes (29.9%), carrots (24.8%). %), beets (18.4%) and apples (12.2%). The cost of salt increased by 13.5%. Rice became more expensive by 11.5%.

The bottom line → First of all, prices, of course, rose due to the sharp fall of the ruble and disruptions in supply chains caused by sanctions, explains Dmitry Ivanov, project manager at NEO Center consulting company. But the refusal of the largest logistics players and seaports to work with Russia is not all. The shortage of containers also affects prices: one of the largest freight carriers in the world, the Danish company Maersk, has left the domestic market.

Another reason for the rise in price is imported components, which are actively used by Russian manufacturers (and the price of which also, of course, affects the final cost). These are not only ingredients and raw materials, but also equipment, seeds and agricultural machinery.

To release almost any domestic product, foreign components are needed. For example, yogurt made at a Russian factory from domestic milk uses imported bacteria for starter culture and imported raw materials for packaging. Familiar vegetables - potatoes, carrots and cabbage - are also partially imported from abroad in winter and spring, because the stocks of their crops in the country are running out by this time.

Can Russia feed itself on its own basic products alone? Unfortunately no. Yes, the country has enough grain, meat, fish, sugar and vegetable oil to ensure its food security. But, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, there is a shortage of potatoes, dairy products, vegetables, fruits and berries. And also - salt (Russian salt can cover only 65.9% of the population's need for it).

In addition, part of the fruit in Russia, in principle, does not grow due to the peculiarities of the climate, which means that it will not be possible to replace them with Russian counterparts. Among them, for example, bananas, tangerines, grapes and oranges - according to the agricultural analytics center of the Ministry of Agriculture, these are the most popular imported fruits.

Of course, during the five years of the food embargo imposed in 2014, Russia's dependence on imported goods has decreased. But one of the results of this process was a rise in prices - and not only for those products that fell under the sanctions. Further attempts at import substitution will lead to the same result. At least because some Western goods are cheaper than domestic ones, Dmitry Ivanov points out.

What's next → More expensive: dairy products, drinks and snacks; baby food and coffee; chocolate and confectionery, as well as eggs.

In addition, there will be fewer discounts and promotions in stores - they have already begun to be canceled. This will further increase the check, and significantly, because visitors to the largest retail chains buy about half of all goods at a discount. First of all, these are cleaning and detergents, but not only - baby food, cottage cheese and chocolate too. However, in a few months, part of the discounts may return, at least for Russian goods, says a consultant in Russian retail. After all, discounts help products of new and not very well-known brands compete with products that are more well-known to buyers.

We will see a new wave of price growth already in April. And by the end of 2022, food inflation will be about 30-40%.



There will be fewer fish. Fruit too. And avocado!

What has already happened → Several multinational companies have announced that they will stop supplying non-essential products to Russia. For example, PepsiCo will stop selling Pepsi-Cola, 7Up and Mirinda soda in the country. Nestle - KitKat chocolate and Nesquik cocoa, Nespresso coffee and San Pellegrino water. Also suspended deliveries of Lindt chocolate and several types of alcoholic beverages: Smirnoff vodka, White Horse and Johnnie Walker whiskey, Captain Morgan rum, Carlsberg and Heineken beer.

Essence → So far, Russian consumers have not noticed a sharp reduction in the range - and it seems to many that the sanctions have not hit him. But this is not so, just stocks still remain in the warehouses.

Soon these reserves will run out, and then the effect of the sanctions will immediately become noticeable. Moreover, not only the products of the brands listed above will disappear from the shelves, but also imported delicacies that will not be able to reach Russia due to problems with logistics. It could be assumed that now they can be imported from those countries that have not joined the sanctions. However, this also requires well-established logistics - a vicious circle.

What's next → A gradual reduction in the range of consumers will notice over the next two months. It is unlikely that this will lead to empty shelves, but by the beginning of summer the choice in stores will become noticeably smaller, several food market analysts {said to this source}.

Problems with logistics will lead to fewer fruits and fish for sale. First of all - bananas and salmon. Difficulties in sending bananas to Russia have already been encountered by their main supplier, Ecuador. As for salmon, the Faroe Islands and Chile had problems with its import. Some fruits may become less by the end of April, their quality will decrease. In addition to bananas, it is also avocado, mango and passion fruit.



People will stop buying food - They won't be able to do it

What has already happened → As in previous crises, Russians began to massively buy food in supermarkets. In the first week alone since the start of the military invasion, visitors to the largest retail chains spent 208% more on sugar than in the same week a year earlier, research company NielsenIQ {said to this source}. Russians are buying up not only sugar, but also buckwheat, flour, rice and canned meat. In a word, those products that can be stocked up for the future for some time in order to “deceive” the price increase.

Essence → Due to the high demand in stores, the shelves began to empty, and retailers limited the sale of socially important products to one hand. For example, in some stores of the Auchan network in early March, no more than five packs of flour or three packs of salt could be sold to one buyer.

At the same time, the authorities claim that the situation is under control: the Ministry of Industry and Trade assured that there will be no shortage of products. Due to the increased demand, the goods might not be on the shelves, but only during the break between deliveries of batches, the officials explained.

There is indeed sugar in the country - in 2021, its production, according to Rosstat, amounted to 5.9 million tons. That's about how much Russians consume per year, Deputy Prime Minister Victoria Abramchenko. At the same time, the Ministry of Agriculture intends to increase the sowing of sugar beet in 2022, and the authorities banned the export of sugar until the end of August.

In a word, the deficit that we observe is artificial. Buyers are afraid that goods will rise in price or disappear. Seeing an empty shelf in one store, a person will go to another, find the goods there and buy three to four times more than he needs - "while there is" and "until the price has risen." “Now we see consumer reactions that are very weakly related to real consumption,” says Oleg Buklemishev, director of the Center for Economic Policy Research.

That is why stores are not adapted to such activity, the head of the association of food producers and suppliers explains in his interview. According to him, the panic behavior of buyers broke the supply structure, and restrictions on the sale of goods further fueled demand and dispersed prices - it is no coincidence that sugar became the leader in price rises in three weeks.

Additional excitement was created by "dealers". In some regions, they bought up to several tons of socially important products in stores in order to resell them later.

What's next → The problem of artificial shortage can be solved naturally in the near future, Oleg Buklemishev believes. Some people will stop buying products because they will run out of panic. Others because they run out of money. “Soon, many will lose their source of income. And of course, consumers will not be able to continue to buy products with the same intensity,” he says.

At the same time, he emphasizes that different regions will face different levels of unemployment. That is, the decline in consumer excitement will also go at different rates: "We will see these processes in the near future, and they will be heterogeneous - each region has its own."



Eating at cafes will become more expensive (and some of them will close)

What has already happened → Several popular Western fast food chains have joined the sanctions and limited their work in Russia. In March, McDonald's announced the temporary closure of 850 restaurants. The owner of the Burger King brand, the Canadian-American Restaurant Brands International, has suspended investment and franchise support in the Russian market. The owner of the fast food chains KFC and Pizza Hut, the American company Yum!, also decided to stop investments and close its outlets. Brands.

Essence → Western fast food was able to close in Russia only those restaurants that belong to it directly. After all, some outlets are managed by independent owners - franchisees, and many of them continue to work. Only the restaurants of the McDonald's network have closed en masse - most of its Russian establishments are owned by an American corporation. KFC and Burger King chains are another matter. The first franchise in Russia has most of the outlets, the second has all (that's why they never closed).

According to a 2020 HSE estimate, McDonald's restaurants accounted for 7% of the catering market. The company paid a quarter of all taxes received by the budget from the industry as a whole. In addition, McDonald's is a major employer (it has 62,000 employees in Russia), and many domestic suppliers depend on it. For example, McDonald's buys 4.2% of potatoes produced in Russia and 1.8% of domestic cheeses.

The authorities intend to solve the problem of leaving such a major player with the help of the import substitution strategy familiar to everyone since 2014. After the closure of McDonald's restaurants, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin promised that domestic catering would replace them within a year. In confirmation of his words, a “patriotic” matryoshka food truck with domestic burgers appeared on Pushkinskaya Square, next to the first Moscow McDonald’s.

However, while Russian chains have not become a close substitute for the departed Western fast food for the consumer, Sergei Mironov, the Ombudsman for the restaurant business in Moscow, the founder of the Russian restaurant chain Meat & Fish, admits in a conversation {with this source}. On the contrary, according to him, domestic public catering faced an outflow of visitors.

The number of guests at expensive restaurants has halved, partly due to the fact that many regulars have left Russia (“but this is temporary,” says Mironov). In turn, restaurants of the middle price segment lost from 10 to 40% of the guests. In the most difficult situation were establishments in shopping centers, where the largest Western brands have suspended their work - for example, Mega shopping centers in Moscow, where Ikea stores no longer operate.

In turn, Mikhail Goncharov, the founder of the Teremok restaurant chain of Russian cuisine, is sure that it will not be easy to replace McDonald's in the Russian market. After all, burgers in domestic chains are sold for 400 rubles, while a Big Mac cost 137 rubles. McDonald's is a complex business, and most importantly, a discount chain with a very low average check. Opening an expensive gourmet restaurant is much easier than opening a cheap restaurant, Goncharov is convinced. He believes that creating a network of this magnitude requires decades of hard work and support from the state, which Russia has not yet had.

What's next → Firstly, cafes and restaurants will become less accessible leisure activities than they used to be. Due to the rise in food prices, catering owners increase the prices for dishes by an average of 10-30%, states Mikhail Goncharov. Obviously, this is not the limit - further price increases will inevitably lead to an increase in the average bill.

Secondly, many dishes will disappear from the menu or will be prepared according to modified recipes. Restaurateurs are already complaining about the lack of a number of products. For example, supplies of imported red fish, Japanese oysters and tuna have practically ceased.

Thirdly, some restaurants will be forced to close, unable to cope with the outflow of visitors, supply problems and rising prices. Ombudsman in the restaurant business in Moscow, Sergei Mironov, believes that restaurants of the middle price segment will be closed mainly.

Fourthly, there will indeed be more Russian fast food. New networks will appear, and existing ones will expand - and they will occupy the premises of the departed companies. “McDonald's will not wait, sooner or later these premises will be handed over to other landlords, someone will definitely take his place,” Mironov is sure. He adds that this could start happening in Moscow's shopping malls within the next month.


><{{{.______) (Edit: I honestly have no idea what this is, but it was used like a topic heading lol)

In December 1991, a few days before the collapse of the USSR, Nezavisimaya Gazeta came out with a symbolic headline: “The Moscow Government Begins to Privatize Stores. There will be no hunger - there will be enough potatoes and flour for the whole winter.

After 30 years, the authorities also convince us that the country has enough food. The good news is that this is true: Russia is indeed able to provide itself with a large part of the basic products.

But there is also a bad one: products that used to be a noticeable item of expenditure for Russians will become even less affordable. That is, hunger does not threaten the inhabitants of the country - but they (that is, we) will eat worse. And very soon you will have to forget about the unlimited choice of goods on the shelves.

The other bad news is that there is no measure that can solve all the problems at once - and not create several others at the same time. For example, government regulation helps to keep prices down, but leads to a reduction in production and the risk of shortages. And active import substitution partially solves the shortage problem, but leads to higher prices.

Maybe it's time to dig your own gardens. Like Bryansk summer residents, this year they plan to increase potato crops.
 
Bucha civilians were not recently planted, case no70 billion odd:

(NYT paywall / signup trap because of course $ campaigners)

so ...

(no paywall cos Masha <3)


The New York Times writes that they looked at satellite imagery and compared it with a well-known video of a drive through the city {Bucha} to see when the bodies appeared on this street. So, according to their data, some of them appeared on March 11th {despite Russian claims it was a set-stage fake following troop withdrawals}.

Additional reference to this expose by Meduza.

And additional description in a reference to the same, from DOXA :
Satellite images show dead bodies have been lying on the streets of Bucha since March 11 - NYT

The New York Times reviewed satellite imagery provided to the Times by Maxar Technologies.

According to the journalist, the photographs prove that at least 11 bodies of the killed people have been on Yablonskaya Street since March 11.

The bodies were captured on video taken by a member of the local council on April 2.

At this time, Russia, according to its own statements, controlled the city.

“Some bodies were near what appears to be an impact crater. Others were standing near abandoned cars. Three bodies lay next to the bicycles. Some have their hands tied behind their backs with a white cloth. The bodies were scattered for more than half a mile along Yablonskaya Street, ”the newspaper writes.
 
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Anybody with the simple evolutionary human ability to be embarassed when caught in an atrocity-embroidered lie over and over by countless exposures from innumerable sources would be embarassed right now.

This is their chance to regain any trust that they bear such humanity. Let's see how they fare.
 
"A BBC correspondent asked Zelensky if he still thinks it is possible to discuss peace with Russia.
Reply : "Yes, because Ukraine must find peace. We are in Europe of the 21st century. We will continue our diplomatic and military efforts," Zelensky said."
He's an inspiration.
He is.
I don't think I could have said what he did after witnessing the butchery. I'm not as good a person, I would have been thinking something like 'Kill them all'.
 
Anybody with the simple evolutionary human ability to be embarassed when caught in an atrocity-embroidered lie over and over by countless exposures from innumerable sources would be embarassed right now.

This is their chance to regain any trust that they bear such humanity. Let's see how they fare.
Hopefully the scales are dropping from the eyes of the apologists

Putin's Russia has long been a lying, corrupt and criminal regime
 
Hopefully the scales are dropping from the eyes of the apologists

Putin's Russia has long been a lying, corrupt and criminal regime
Putin apologism has mostly disappeared from this thread now which is good.
It would be defending the indefensible at this point.

They've shifted to "but the west has done war crimes too" from what I've seen.
 
Fat chance:



What if Tucker Carlson is a lizard alien from some flat planet sent here to fry our brains? I’m not saying any of this is true, I’m just asking the questions. Why can’t we ask these questions?
 
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