Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 2

[Gethelred]

This is a sensitive area for some. With that in mind, I'm going to remind a few posters a few things:

• personal attacks are against forum rules. From this point, any attacks that are directed at another poster will be treated with a warning, then infractions and threadbans if it continues.
• the spread of misinformation is also against the rules. This is taken very seriously by moderation, and you will be asked to support your opinion from time to time. If you cannot satisfy this, you will be provided an opportunity to retract your post; if you do not, you will receive an infraction and a threadban on that basis.

This is a forum for adults, and I'd appreciate you all treating each other appropriately.

 

[Visions]

So the sequel to Lyman, the battle of Kreminna is underway.

Russians already panicking. UAF hitting the town with artillery, and it is expected they will attack from both the west and north west.

Will be interesting after their humiliating defeat whether the same exhausted depleted Russian soldiers will have the will to fight.

 

[Visions]

More Ukrainian trolling.

 

[Visions]

Oh, so now they care about the cruelty of weapons!

 

[mighty tiges]

 

[Mobbs]

Dudchany is halfway between where the front was, and Nova Kakhovka. And it's more than 15 clicks further on past Zolotaya Balka. The media are suggesting a whirlwind pace.

 

[Fire]

Really weird how the pro Russian crowd has gone quiet again. I guess there wont be much for them to talk about until Putin starts mobilizing some nukes. Then they'll be back to tut tut about how the west is making him do this. If only we'd listened to them.

Problem is I dont think they really believe any of that shit deep down, this is just a footy game to them and it's no fun being 45 points down.

Unless they actually do believe it, and cant quite see how this all fits in to the plan that must be working as intended. Russias real army is still just over the hill, just waiting for the signal.

But maybe even that's too optimistic. If the Q Anon criwd is anything to go by, they will genuinely not be remembering any of the predictions or news or even their own opinions that didnt pan out from just a week ago. Because we've always been at war with eastasia.

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[footyfan1978]

Really weird how the pro Russian crowd has gone quiet again. I guess there wont be much for them to talk about until Putin starts mobilizing some nukes. Then they'll be back to tut tut about how the west is making him do this. If only we'd listened to them.

Problem is I dont think they really believe any of that s**t deep down, this is just a footy game to them

There certainly is an element of that with some that is anti-Russian too.
I try to watch different video sources when I look for any updates on news every few days but I do mainly find myself with more British sources as they tend to be more in touch with the human side of the story and not report like it a game. Some of thee American hosts give me the impression it just a game to them which sometimes makes me angry they so flippant in their approach like it just a game to keep score on. It's a horrible war, not some game. The few times I clicked on India ones it is really bad and also very sloppy with information and videos that some well outdated by news the day before. Some posters seem to post on it like a score too, which is kind of sad, but I guess some people are like that. If it a long way away, it easy to be detached and view it like a sport.

 

[footyfan1978]

Yes, that is why I wonder how long it will take. I dream for Ukranians in general it can be over before early December but I think I am a bit too optimistic of what is possible for them.

Was wondering out aloud only yesterday if it was possible for this bullshit Russian invasion to be turned on it's head and a lost cause for them by their winter. Well maybe not too optimistic if I see videos pop up on youtube that talk more and more about Kherson region today.
About to see what this one is about.

 

[footyfan1978]

Sounds like Ukranians made advances into Kherson direction from the north but how far south probably will not become clear for a day or two.

 

[footyfan1978]

Russias real army is still just over the hill, just waiting for the signal.

Trojan Koshka really was funny how much of that propaganda he had swallowed.

 

[Hornberger]

Yes, that is why I wonder how long it will take. I dream for Ukranians in general it can be over before early December but I think I am a bit too optimistic of what is possible for them.

Realistically, the best case scenario that I can think of would be for Ukraine to re-capture Kherson city, break through to Melitopol and Mariupol and liberate Kherson and Zaporizhzia Oblast. This would return the line of control close to where it was on 23 Feb.

I don't see Ukraine being able to retake Crimera or Donestk city or Luhansk city this year.

 

[jatz14]

I do not live in places like Serbia, France and Hungary. You must I take it. They were outnumbered and not taken seriously.
Nobody here was saying that. Same with most nations we consider Western.

Joke in the US is there are more Russians standing up to Putin than Republicans.

Tucker Carlson was, and possibly still is, publicly calling on Ukraine to concede, Russia would win, all this death was Ukraine's fault.

And if he is saying it, it's because his audience wants to hear it.

Every aid package to Ukraine is publicly attacked by Republicans along the lines, "why wasn't that money spent on (insert social issue they don't actually care about)".

Support in Australia however is much more consistent, I don't see many conservatives in Australia doing this, but in the US, many conservatives see this war as just another chance to own the libtards.

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[CD Xbow]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/04/01/too-many-conservatives-oppose-aid-for-ukraine-russia-war/

A number of US conservatives, the 'usual suspects' you might say. Some of the right in the EU but not so much in Oz.

Was wondering out aloud only yesterday if it was possible for this bullshit Russian invasion to be turned on it's head and a lost cause for them by their winter. Well maybe not too optimistic if I see videos pop up on youtube that talk more and more about Kherson region today.
About to see what this one is about.

UKR is just moving too fast for the RF forces to react meaningfully, good place to be, well inside your opponent's OODA loop. No one can really know when they will stop their advance. Winter is coming, many suggest that put's a limit, so it's now race to grab as much territory before the weather is too bad. Then UKR forces will be in a position to wait out the poorly supplied Russians, who will hopefully freeze or starve to death.

Given UKR has tens of thousands troops well equipped with top class NATO winter gear, I don't think Ukraine will stop unless absolutely forced by terrible conditions. I think they will keep pushing, using the tactics we have seen and using the conditions to increase the Russians losses & despair. if I were the UKR I would play a little psyops, I would start mentioning about a winter pause in public forums, get the Russian forces expectations of a decrease in operational tempo, then push really hard at a couple of points.

 

[footyfan1978]

Joke in the US is there are more Russians standing up to Putin than Republicans.

Tucker Carlson was, and possibly still is, publicly calling on Ukraine to concede, Russia would win, all this death was Ukraine's fault.

Just a dumb brand name I've never listened to.
You honestly have to be braindead to even consider a type like that a serious news outlet.

 

[footyfan1978]

Realistically, the best case scenario that I can think of would be for Ukraine to re-capture Kherson city, break through to Melitopol and Mariupol and liberate Kherson and Zaporizhzia Oblast. This would return the line of control close to where it was on 23 Feb.

I don't see Ukraine being able to retake Crimera or Donestk city or Luhansk city this year.

That is most likely right. But a man can dream. Donestk itself been ****ed for nearly a decade so with Russian backed cronies there for that long you would expect it would be the hardest to remove the cronies from there. Really the time line to dream by is late November to remove as much as the occupiers as they can. I looked up the weather for the region as it starts to get down to 1 degree around those nights so winter near impossible to do much at ground level without freezing to death in winter. But it also gives Russia a chance to breath and find some way of replenish sources if Ukraine does not take a lot more ground before then. What they doing now is very promising but it hard, unless there to really know what is possible in these coming 6 to 8 week.

 

[footyfan1978]

A number of US conservatives, the 'usual suspects' you might say. Some of the right in the EU but not so much in Oz.

Exactly. We changed government in this time and they both support Ukraine defending itself from these Russia invaders, which any sensible person would with emphasis on sensible...

UKR is just moving too fast for the RF forces to react meaningfully, good place to be, well inside your opponent's OODA loop. No one can really know when they will stop their advance. Winter is coming, many suggest that put's a limit, so it's now race to grab as much territory before the weather is too bad.

Yes, I think the time limit in last week of November so coming weeks whilst weather not bad, is the best time but I do worry what supplies other nations have got to the Ukranians. Always seems slower than what they really need.

 

[Visions]

Putin annexation after the so called referendum gets even more absurd.

After signing the annexation into law, it seems that the borders of the new territories are unclear and moving goalposts.

So basically they held referendums within an undefined area, but the results were definite. Seems legit.

 

[Visions]

Dudchany is halfway between where the front was, and Nova Kakhovka. And it's more than 15 clicks further on past Zolotaya Balka. The media are suggesting a whirlwind pace.

Still 60km from Dudchany to Nova Kakhovka, however it seems the UAF effort of strangling supplies to Russian forces is slowly paying off.

Also helps that the attacks in Lyman - Kreminna takes the focus of Russia's attention in two different directions and as we all know Russia has a hell of time trying to fight on one front, let alone multiple.

 

[CD Xbow]

Exactly. We changed government in this time and they both support Ukraine defending itself from these Russia invaders, which any sensible person would with emphasis on sensible...


Yes, I think the time limit in last week of November so coming weeks whilst weather not bad, is the best time but I do worry what supplies other nations have got to the Ukranians. Always seems slower than what they really need.

They have been very well organized, so I expect they have what they need, where they need it. It's always a risk in a rapid offensive to outrun your supply line but Ukrainians are good, they won't let that happen. I'm still hoping for a rapid and complete collapse of the Russians.

 

[jatz14]

Just a dumb brand name I've never listened to.
You honestly have to be braindead to even consider a type like that a serious news outlet.

I agree, but plenty of US conservatives do, which is the point.

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[jatz14]

They have been very well organized, so I expect they have what they need, where they need it. It's always a risk in a rapid offensive to outrun your supply line but Ukrainians are good, they won't let that happen. I'm still hoping for a rapid and complete collapse of the Russians.

Because of the hits on large supply depots, Russians started using many more smaller depots.

When retreating, they are unable to deal with all these caches, so Ukraine takes them.

Russia is supplying the offensives it's facing

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[footyfan1978]

They have been very well organized, so I expect they have what they need, where they need it. It's always a risk in a rapid offensive to outrun your supply line but Ukrainians are good, they won't let that happen. I'm still hoping for a rapid and complete collapse of the Russians.

I agree with how organized they seem but I still lack confidence how much of what they need, they really have. Lots of nations been slow to deliver what Ukraine need in timely fashion.

 

[footyfan1978]

Putin annexation after the so called referendum gets even more absurd.

After signing the annexation into law, it seems that the borders of the new territories are unclear and moving goalposts.

It not worth unpacking as those cronies that were so called people's republic bullshit were basically criminals. Russian backed criminals, but all the same, criminal gangsters types to the core. I think I saw one of those tossers in their so called ceremony on tv 8 years ago in some interview and he come across as dodgy to the core. So it would not surprise those types also fight amongst themselves what they wanted as border for their so called new oblast. They would stab each other in the back at first opportunity, if they did not need to be seen together symbolically for Putin's overall game.

 

[footyfan1978]

I agree, but plenty of US conservatives do

I live in Australia. The conservatives were in power here when the Russian invasion started and they were not pro-Russian here.
You have to be listening to real nutters to find them.

 

[CD Xbow]

Because of the hits on large supply depots, Russians started using many more smaller depots.

When retreating, they are unable to deal with all these caches, so Ukraine takes them.

Russia is supplying the offensives it's facing

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Yeah, there are a few gags circulating based around the concept of Russian Lend lease to Ukraine. I've seen it said Ukraine have captured more tanks than they have lost which is amazing. It's an unusual feature of this war because both sides started with kit of the same Soviet DNA.

I agree with how organized they seem but I still lack confidence how much of what they need, they really have. Lots of nations been slow to deliver what Ukraine need in timely fashion.

They have done very well with they have on hand, I'm sure they have enough for the current offensive. Look at what difference a few HIMARS launchers made in the second part of the war.

UKR have done incredibly well integrating different weapon systems. Bringing lots of disparate kit together then being able to support and use it properly is hard. I think you will find a gradual moving to Western arms, so the 2nd Ukraine army will have more, the 3rd even more. These armies may be equipped differently for different type of war. An army to take Crimea, perhaps another artillery heavy army to hold the East.