Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 2

[Gethelred]

This is a sensitive area for some. With that in mind, I'm going to remind a few posters a few things:

• personal attacks are against forum rules. From this point, any attacks that are directed at another poster will be treated with a warning, then infractions and threadbans if it continues.
• the spread of misinformation is also against the rules. This is taken very seriously by moderation, and you will be asked to support your opinion from time to time. If you cannot satisfy this, you will be provided an opportunity to retract your post; if you do not, you will receive an infraction and a threadban on that basis.

This is a forum for adults, and I'd appreciate you all treating each other appropriately.

 

[Visions]

Lol, Russian officials and media were trying to downplay the whole thing.

 

[BATTERY]

Missile strike?

 

[Mobbs]

Yeah, forget what I said about it being blown up from underneath, does seem that there was someone (a patriot?) on a suicide mission in a truck full of explosives. You can see the span where the truck passed over is the one that has collapsed. Whoever was in the car next to it trying to overtake would have been vaporised in milliseconds themselves.

You can also see that the other side of the roadway is damaged as well, enough that the integrity of it is compromised. Knowing the Russians, they will do the same they did with the Antonovsky bridge, slap some concrete down and see what happens.

That car alongside was there for ages. I don't think they were overtaking, I think they were in on it (but unsure how). I originally thought it was random partisan work too, but they managed to time it as a train went past chockers with fuel that was compromised, AND on the same day a train was explodiated in Donetsk as well. I know I'm assuming a lot, but it feels like this isn't the event, instead this is the prep work for an event about to come.

 

[Mobbs]

Lol, Russian officials and media were trying to downplay the whole thing.

Dude the traffic report says "light damage!" haha

(can't quote the orig TG post sorry, the channel has embed disabled)

 

[Mobbs]

Missile strike?

That's interesting, tho of course they did have this. It's still so curious - a truck went up (or the car beside it), and managed to time it to catch the train that was quite a ways away. I can't stop repeating how mesmerising these details are for me.

 

[Visions]

A freight train has also reportedly exploded in Donetsk. The text of the post suggests that there are now supply issues for Russia "from both sides".

Not only the Crimean bridge. New footage of the aftermath of an event in Illovaisk, Donetsk region. As Piotr Andryushchenko, an adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, said, the freight train of the occupiers exploded and now they have big problems with supplies from both sides.

I read that the railway hub there had brought a lot of mobilised soliders to Ukraine hence the attack by HIMARS. Also rumours (take with a grain of salt) that due to non existent logistics a lot of those mobilised were sleeping in the railway cars overnight, and would have perished.

 

[Spearman]

If it turns out to be the case, it is effed up that the Ukes are using suicide bombers. That's the kind of thing that will turn support against them.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Missile strike?

Wonder if the checkers were sloppy/ do only random checks/ were subverted

 

[Millky95]

Drone boat maybe?

 

[Crankyhawk]

If it turns out to be the case, it is effed up that the Ukes are using suicide bombers. That's the kind of thing that will turn support against them.

will it? if the war is an existential war (the right of Ukraine to exist) desperate measures... and I think that a suicide bomber is less likely to turn support than if they had stuffed the truck with explosives and the unknowing driver was killed as a result.

 

[Spearman]

will it? if the war is an existential war (the right of Ukraine to exist) desperate measures... and I think that a suicide bomber is less likely to turn support than if they had stuffed the truck with explosives and the unknowing driver was killed as a result.

Yes I think it will, especially in western countries where people have been horrified by Islamic bombers for decades.


Edit: hoping that footage of a potential drone boat turns out to be the point of explosion

 

[Crankyhawk]

Yes I think it will, especially in western countries where people have been horrified by Islamic bombers for decades.

I wonder how much of that is because the Islamic bombers are killing "people like us/ our side" while if Ukranian suicide bombers are killing Russians it will be seen as "desperate freedom fighters". It is the old saying - it they are on the other side they are terrorists, if they are on our side they are freedom fighters
And if appears to be targeted towards infrastructure rather than trying to rack up a kill count

though maybe I'm just cold about the values and morals aspect

 

[Visions]

The caption says it's 20,000 Chechens congratulating Putin on his birthday and expressing willingness to fight. At Khankala in Chechnya (satellite suburb of Grozny)

Nah, Kadyrov needs those troops for himself when Putin is disposed of and Chechnya blows up in a civil war.

What is going on with Starlink?

Surely Musk is not that petty?

Not that Musk isn't an idiot, but there are suggestions the reasons for Starlink not working is that the Ukrainians are moving so fast in their offensive, they outran the places where Statlink was geologically linked to work (as they obviously didn't want Russians using it in their locations). Does sound plausible.

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

Geez, you go somewhere for 3 hours and come back to find the Kerch bridge in tatters. It's a great birthday present for Putin with fireworks and all. What a beautiful weekend, don't think anything can top this.

This has got to be the biggest embarrassment for Putin and Russian intelligence. To think that they could not get wind that a major attack like this was happening under their noses, a total failure of their FSB.

Its seems that this was blown from underneath taking the pylons out but to time it when a train carrying fuel was passing by. Mwahh.

The two spans that have collapsed (in the photo below) do seem to be on the same side leaving one side open. So now the Russian have a decision to make. Is that available one going to be used to go to or from? You can bet your bottom dollar there will be a lot of scared peope in Crimea wanting to hightail out of there.



Even the rail bridge doesn't seem to be in good order. Look at the vision, where the fire is has warped the railing and side of the bridge. who knows what it has done to the span. Also a few more fuel tanks might go boom!

Looks like a hazmat train of some sort. Looking off the footage possibly a LP gas train going off the leaking.

 

[Mobbs]

If it turns out to be the case, it is effed up that the Ukes are using suicide bombers. That's the kind of thing that will turn support against them.

The problem most of us generally have with suicide bombers is that they take out civilians in heavily populated public places (either to get noticed, or because all people including civilians are the enemy if they don't believe what they believe). But this was a bridge. Not a market square.
Also, did someone say Ukraine is using suicide bombers? If this was a suicide attack, it's more likely to be unattached partisan activity or just random sympathisers.

 

[Visions]

Excellent analysis of the current state of the war and its implications for internal power struggles in Moscow, and why the war might end sooner than we think:

http://[URL='https://snyder.substac...utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web[/URL[/COLOR]

]

This is one of the best articles I have read on this war. All of it accurate.

Russia (in Soviet times) had ample opportunities to use nuclear weapons such as Afghanistan when they were losing but never did. Russia could have done the same in the first Chechan war but didn't. Even if Putin wanted to now, the rest of the chain who have an input don't have a death wish.

Also correct is that once the pressure is on domestically (and that has started), Putin will be more worried about trying to stay alive in Moscow than worried about Ukraine.

After todays hit on the Kerch bridge I seriously can't see him surviving more than a few more months.

 

[Millky95]

Looks like a hazmat train of some sort. Looking off the footage possibly a LP gas train going off the leaking.

Yeah fuel train which caused the major fire ball

 

[Zidane98]

A list of all republics taken by Russia over the last 500 years:



Might all need a self determination referendum!

 

[Satan]

Awaiting the satellite photos or drone

 

[The Ghost of the KPF]

I'd be banking on a drone boat, which is kind of awesome way to subvert the road based security systems.

That is some ninja level special ops there.

 

[mighty tiges]

And this one, could be the truck?

When you stop-start-stop-start-... frame by frame from the 0:12 mark, the explosion IMV appears to be behind the truck. The truck and car are on the part of the bridge rising up, yet the explosion appears to be centered on the flat section of the bridge.

As someone else said, I don't see Ukraine using suicide tactics and a truck with explosives wouldn't have got past that Russian scanning checkpoint either.

 

[Mobbs]

View attachment 311204090_2420597901412970_2153059396930375157_n.mp4

 

[Mobbs]

Occupied Crimea, a 3 km queue for the first ferry to Mordor. There is no panic, firmly and clearly.


Assuming the video won't play embedded:
View attachment to_the_ferry_1.mp4
View attachment to_the_ferry_2.mp4

 

[CD Xbow]

I'd be banking on a drone boat, which is kind of awesome way to subvert the road based security systems.

That is some ninja level special ops there.

Yes.
There is a video on SM that shows the explosion clearly beneath and to the right of the outer road span, suspect the drone boat is the go. One washed up thereabouts a week or 2 ago. They appear to have checked the train time tables, a nice touch, as well as Vlad's calendar, an especially nice touch. They say it's always good to be in someone's thoughts!

 

[Visions]

This video shows two adjoining spans collapsed, and then at the end behind them there is a span further down the road that has collapsed.

A truck explosion wouldn't cause that further span to fall would it? Also the collapsed portions don't show any sort of tell that there was an explosion on top of the road?