Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 2

[Gethelred]

This is a sensitive area for some. With that in mind, I'm going to remind a few posters a few things:

• personal attacks are against forum rules. From this point, any attacks that are directed at another poster will be treated with a warning, then infractions and threadbans if it continues.
• the spread of misinformation is also against the rules. This is taken very seriously by moderation, and you will be asked to support your opinion from time to time. If you cannot satisfy this, you will be provided an opportunity to retract your post; if you do not, you will receive an infraction and a threadban on that basis.

This is a forum for adults, and I'd appreciate you all treating each other appropriately.

 

[CD Xbow]

So it turns out that it was a holy war to those three. Just not the way the Russian commander thought it was.

That's one of the things about Russia, they're losing their grip on these Stans which form up greater Russia.

It exposes Russia for what it is, a hollow shell of a country cobbled together with fear, thievery and poverty. They keep the people in such poverty that they can't fight back. The internet is exposing people to the rest of the world and these people are wondering why they should fight Ukrainians for the Russians when the Russians provide them with only the bare level of livelihood.

Also LOL at the people who think the Russians have all their good military stuff in the back shed. They never even began production of the T14 and with no parts from overseas, they're not in a position to build that capability. Their military industrial complex has been exposed as the sham that it is. A standstill of this war is bad for Russia because oil and gas prices will regulate or drop. China is now entering the MIC market, so they're not about to help their declining competitor.

They've supposedly got massive missile stockpiles but also having to buy and use Iranian drones en masse. It's laughable how exposed they are.

Cracks are appearing in all directions. War is the ultimate throw of the dice, the great disruptor. Hard to remember the Mr Putin from the Helsinki meeting, making Mr Trump look like whipped cur and seemingly triumphant over the US. Autocratic & despotic regimes look tough, but ultimately, they are brittle.

Good piece on behind-the-scenes of the supply of arms to Ukraine during the war:

Inside the U.S. Effort to Arm Ukraine

Since the start of the Russian invasion, the Biden Administration has provided valuable intelligence and increasingly powerful weaponry—a risky choice that has paid off in the battle against Putin.

www.newyorker.com

Good find. I liked this best:

“Putin thought Zelensky a weak leader, that the Ukrainians would cave, and that his military could achieve a decisive victory at minimal cost.”

Ha. Mr P ignored Sun Tzu 101 - Never underestimate your opponent.

 

[Zidane98]

Ukrainian police, shooting at (and allegedly downing) an Iranian drone, at a point shown during Operator Starsky's stream ('Ive set the time to start there).

Plenty of reports of these drones targeting apartment buildings in Kyiv. That can in no way be dressed up as an accidental strike - they are precision controlled.

Israel was also concerned that Iran is going to turn over ballistic cruise missiles to the Russians. If that happens I can see Israel siding with Ukraine and providing them with Iron Dome air defense systems.

 

[Visions]

Across the Azov Sea from Mariupol, a Russian fighter jet (SU34) fell onto residential buildings in the city of Yeysk. The pilot successfully ejected.

Thats actually some great photography with the explosion and parachuting pilot. The Kremlin will probably frame the incident as: “Russian anti aircraft building takes out military jet”

This is what happens when washing machine microchips are used as spare parts! Also strange in the video l saw was what seemed like ordnance cooking off as if an ammo dump was hit in addition to the building.

Heres a video of the heroic pilot. Probably got drafted last week, had a few hours training in a simulator and off he went. Hero of the Russian Federation medal coming his way!

 

[Hornberger]

Across the Azov Sea from Mariupol, a Russian fighter jet (SU34) fell onto residential buildings in the city of Yeysk. The pilot successfully ejected.

This is the third aircraft lost during take-off / landing in the last month. It doesn't speak highly of Russians training and/or maintenance standards.

Russian Su-25 crashes after takeoff: here’s what we know so far - AeroTime

A Russian Air Force Su-25 attack aircraft has crashed shortly after taking off. Footage of the incident was shared on social media. The combat aircraft took off with another Su-25, both armed with rocket pods commonly used during ground support missions. Shortly after becoming airborne, the...

www.google.com

Explosion rocks Russian military airbase in occupied Crimea as tourists look on

The cause of the explosion has not yet been verified, but Russian sources have claimed that it was caused when a military aircraft carrying munitions exploded after overshooting the runway

www.google.com

 

[Marcel Proust]

Musk knows he has been caught with his tongue stuck in Putins arse tickling his spincter and everyone is turning on him. Needed to do something to save face

I looked at his Twitter for the first time, it's quite impressive.

The electric semi- truck looks smick

 

[Frank Grimes]

This is the third aircraft lost during take-off / landing in the last month. It doesn't speak highly of Russians training and/or maintenance standards.

Russian Su-25 crashes after takeoff: here’s what we know so far - AeroTime

A Russian Air Force Su-25 attack aircraft has crashed shortly after taking off. Footage of the incident was shared on social media. The combat aircraft took off with another Su-25, both armed with rocket pods commonly used during ground support missions. Shortly after becoming airborne, the...

www.google.com

Explosion rocks Russian military airbase in occupied Crimea as tourists look on

The cause of the explosion has not yet been verified, but Russian sources have claimed that it was caused when a military aircraft carrying munitions exploded after overshooting the runway

www.google.com

I think the sanctions are beginning to bite. Russia doesn't have the resources to not only make new equipment, but also to be able to repair/maintain their existing equipment.

Russia can't win this war. The longer it goes on Russia will become more and more run down and unable to replenish itself while Ukraine will be getting a steady supplies, equipment and resources coming to keep up the fight.

Even the conscripts on the front line are bring more detrimental than beneficial because they panic and run which gives away the veteran Russian soldiers positions.

 

[Saint]

I think the sanctions are beginning to bite. Russia doesn't have the resources to not only make new equipment, but also to be able to repair/maintain their existing equipment.

Russia can't win this war. The longer it goes on Russia will become more and more run down and unable to replenish itself while Ukraine will be getting a steady shupplies, equipment and resources coming to keep up the fight.

Even the conscripts on the front line are bring more detrimental than beneficial because they panic and run which gives away the veteran Russian soldiers positions.

Poland, Latvia, Finland, Czech Republic and Estonia will never let Ukraine run out of material, it's cheaper to fight Russia in Ukraine than when they're next in their own country. They just have to balance sending material without depleting their own ability to defend themselves. There is nobody who has such an interest in Russia. In fact, most countries, even China and India probably couldn't care less if the Russian regime fell, if anything it would be a bonus to them. China could snap up some resources even cheaper, possibly a bit of land too.

 

[Lethality]

 

[The Ghost of the KPF]

This is the third aircraft lost during take-off / landing in the last month. It doesn't speak highly of Russians training and/or maintenance standards.

Russian Su-25 crashes after takeoff: here’s what we know so far - AeroTime

A Russian Air Force Su-25 attack aircraft has crashed shortly after taking off. Footage of the incident was shared on social media. The combat aircraft took off with another Su-25, both armed with rocket pods commonly used during ground support missions. Shortly after becoming airborne, the...

www.google.com

Explosion rocks Russian military airbase in occupied Crimea as tourists look on

The cause of the explosion has not yet been verified, but Russian sources have claimed that it was caused when a military aircraft carrying munitions exploded after overshooting the runway

www.google.com

People often underappreciate the complexity of the task of aircraft sustainment for complex military aircraft.

Keeping modern combat aircraft in the air during high operational tempos is not something that has really been done on this scale often since Vietnam.

The accepted ratio of maintenance man hours to flight hours for these aircraft is likely to be upwards of 20, and that involves demand for a huge range of complex skills as well as components. In particular, Russian engines are known to be less reliable and wear out faster than their Western counterparts requiring full engine overhaul more frequently.

It has been noted that operational tempos of Russian frontal aviation have been low, and people have pointed to losses and effective Ukrainian air defences, but it is probable that at least as significant is the lack of personnel to maintain the fleet. Of their fleet, by now probably less than half those available are combat capable and that will get worse.

Given the state of the Russian defence forces in general, they probably had enough parts and skilled ground crew to maintain only a fraction of their fleet in an operational environment, and that would have been prioritised to key strategic formations like the Backfires. Poor old frontal aviation would get the scraps.

 

[Zidane98]

Fell out of a window by any chance?

 

[mighty tiges]

Plenty of reports of these drones targeting apartment buildings in Kyiv. That can in no way be dressed up as an accidental strike - they are precision controlled.

These drones are cheap. That's why Russia is using them. They can send thousands of the things compared to a costly old school more precise missile (the latter the Russians have to use sparingly as they've already used a third of the missiles in their arsenal). The drones apparently hold about 20kg of explosives and only have some dodgy Russian-installed GPS. So, they target a general area rather than a specific target, which is why Putin and co. are firing these drones at Ukrainian cities where they randomly hit something (most likely civilian ). They have no military value and won't alter the course of the war. They are purely used to terrorise the civilian Ukrainian population. As was mentioned on the ABC this arvo by some strategic bloke, it's equivalent to Hitler and his V1/V2 rockets in WW2. Putin is using these drones purely out of desperation and for pointless vengeance. It's just another tantrum.

However, the problem for Ukraine is that unless the launch bases for these drones which are located in Russia are taken out then Putin could in theory fire these drones as terrorist acts for years to come even after Ukraine has taken back all its land. Further reasons why Putin and his imperial cronies need to be removed/taken out themselves to cement Ukraine's peace and security in the future.

 

[CD Xbow]

People often underappreciate the complexity of the task of aircraft sustainment for complex military aircraft.

Keeping modern combat aircraft in the air during high operational tempos is not something that has really been done on this scale often since Vietnam.

The accepted ratio of maintenance man hours to flight hours for these aircraft is likely to be upwards of 20, and that involves demand for a huge range of complex skills as well as components. In particular, Russian engines are known to be less reliable and wear out faster than their Western counterparts requiring full engine overhaul more frequently.

It has been noted that operational tempos of Russian frontal aviation have been low, and people have pointed to losses and effective Ukrainian air defences, but it is probable that at least as significant is the lack of personnel to maintain the fleet. Of their fleet, by now probably less than half those available are combat capable and that will get worse.

Given the state of the Russian defence forces in general, they probably had enough parts and skilled ground crew to maintain only a fraction of their fleet in an operational environment, and that would have been prioritised to key strategic formations like the Backfires. Poor old frontal aviation would get the scraps.

Think about trying to run a 'superpower' military with a GDP not much bigger than Oz, while providing for 140 million plus citizens. Pretty tough. Mr Putin has to run a nuclear program with nuclear missile subs, land based ICBM's and a fleet of bombers equipped to launch nuclear cruise missiles. He has a stockplile of tactical nuclear missiles and rockets (few less now) to launch them. He wants to maintain a navy with global reach but can't. He wants to modernize his airforce but can't afford 5th gen aircraft in any number. Mr Putin needs a sizable internal security services and police. And a space program......

But he loves his wonder weapons and spends resources on the development of a nuclear torpedo, the nuclear cruise missile and various hypersonic vehicles, none of which are any use in the war in Ukraine. It's no surprise that maintenance, logistics and support go by the wayside but is a bit of a surprise how he has managed to build an army 'not fit for purpose'.

 

[Malifice]

Apparently they are using AA weapons on ground forces now. Might be where all the massive missile stockpiles are

Not a new thing.

The German 88mm was originally an AA weapon in WW2 that they quickly found out was a devastating ground attack weapon, for tanks and personnel.

 

[The Ghost of the KPF]

Think about trying to run a 'superpower' military with a GDP not much bigger than Oz, while providing for 140 million plus citizens. Pretty tough. Mr Putin has to run a nuclear program with nuclear missile subs, land based ICBM's and a fleet of bombers equipped to launch nuclear cruise missiles. He has a stockplile of tactical nuclear missiles and rockets (few less now) to launch them. He wants to maintain a navy with global reach but can't. He wants to modernize his airforce but can't afford 5th gen aircraft in any number. Mr Putin needs a sizable internal security services and police. And a space program......

But he loves his wonder weapons and spends resources on the development of a nuclear torpedo, the nuclear cruise missile and various hypersonic vehicles, none of which are any use in the war in Ukraine. It's no surprise that maintenance, logistics and support go by the wayside but is a bit of a surprise how he has managed to build an army 'not fit for purpose'.

I guess it raises the question of what fit for purpose is in this context.

If fit for purpose is looking impressive on the parade ground, reinforcing nationalist pride and reinforcing the power of the regime internally, yeah.

If it is projecting power externally by the force in being, yeah (till now).

Not so much if the purpose is actually projecting force in a prolonged multi dimensional engagement.

The trouble for Russia is now the second point is gone too, nobody will be ridiculously scared of Russian conventional forces any more. This has geostrategic consequences that we are barely aware of yet but for example the uncoupling of several strong allies like kazakhstan who were kept chained to Russia by geographic vulnrability is likely to accelerate.

 

[The Ghost of the KPF]

These drones are cheap. That's why Russia is using them. They can send thousands of the things compared to a costly old school more precise missile (the latter the Russians have to use sparingly as they've already used a third of the missiles in their arsenal). The drones apparently hold about 20kg of explosives and only have some dodgy Russian-installed GPS. So, they target a general area rather than a specific target, which is why Putin and co. are firing these drones at Ukrainian cities where they randomly hit something (most likely civilian ). They have no military value and won't alter the course of the war. They are purely used to terrorise the civilian Ukrainian population. As was mentioned on the ABC this arvo by some strategic bloke, it's equivalent to Hitler and his V1/V2 rockets in WW2. Putin is using these drones purely out of desperation and for pointless vengeance. It's just another tantrum.

However, the problem for Ukraine is that unless the launch bases for these drones which are located in Russia are taken out then Putin could in theory fire these drones as terrorist acts for years to come even after Ukraine has taken back all its land. Further reasons why Putin and his imperial cronies need to be removed/taken out themselves to cement Ukraine's peace and security in the future.

Or the factories in Iran could be bombed.

I do wonder if the US has a battle carrier group tasked with this in the Eastern med as we speak.


Also interesting to note that relying on Iran may be an own goal for Russia, as it is causing genuine concern in Israel and calls from senior govt minsters to arm Ukraine with air defence systems.

 

[Baldur]

People often underappreciate the complexity of the task of aircraft sustainment for complex military aircraft.

Keeping modern combat aircraft in the air during high operational tempos is not something that has really been done on this scale often since Vietnam.

The accepted ratio of maintenance man hours to flight hours for these aircraft is likely to be upwards of 20, and that involves demand for a huge range of complex skills as well as components. In particular, Russian engines are known to be less reliable and wear out faster than their Western counterparts requiring full engine overhaul more frequently.

It has been noted that operational tempos of Russian frontal aviation have been low, and people have pointed to losses and effective Ukrainian air defences, but it is probable that at least as significant is the lack of personnel to maintain the fleet. Of their fleet, by now probably less than half those available are combat capable and that will get worse.

Given the state of the Russian defence forces in general, they probably had enough parts and skilled ground crew to maintain only a fraction of their fleet in an operational environment, and that would have been prioritised to key strategic formations like the Backfires. Poor old frontal aviation would get the scraps.

One area of concern is that the west really does not do integrated ground based air defence. The west relies on point defence sam's and using their airforces to gain air control. Ukraine has a lot of soviet style sam's, this is why the russian air force has not been doing deep strikes, only low and fast strikes near the front line.

But if Ukraine runs out of sam's than the russians might have a window whereby they can use their much larger airforce to really damage the Ukrainian forces, before their airforce becomes ineffective.

Systems like NASAMS will help, but six or so NASAMS cannot replace 100+ S-300's. This is why in my opinion the west has dropped the ball in not already being in the process of training and supplying Ukraine with say F-16.

 

[wannabejack]

Thanks to OneGreatClub for the link

Fiona Hill: ‘Elon Musk Is Transmitting a Message for Putin’

Eight months into Russia’s war against Ukraine, POLITICO talks to the Russia analyst about whether Putin’s aims are evolving and what it would take to end the war.

www.politico.com

Hill: It’s very clear that Elon Musk is transmitting a message for Putin. There was a conference in Aspen in late September when Musk offered a version of what was in his tweet — including the recognition of Crimea as Russian because it’s been mostly Russian since the 1780s — and the suggestion that the Ukrainian regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia should be up for negotiation, because there should be guaranteed water supplies to Crimea. He made this suggestion before Putin’s annexation of those two territories on September 30. It was a very specific reference. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia essentially control all the water supplies to Crimea. Crimea is a dry peninsula. It has aquifers, but it doesn’t have rivers. It’s dependent on water from the Dnipro River that flows through a canal from Kherson. It’s unlikely Elon Musk knows about this himself. The reference to water is so specific that this clearly is a message from Putin.

Now, there are several reasons why Musk’s intervention is interesting and significant. First of all, Putin does this frequently. He uses prominent people as intermediaries to feel out the general political environment, to basically test how people are going to react to ideas. Henry Kissinger, for example, has had interactions with Putin directly and relayed messages. Putin often uses various trusted intermediaries including all kinds of businesspeople. I had intermediaries sent to discuss things with me while I was in government.

This is a classic Putin play. It’s just fascinating, of course, that it’s Elon Musk in this instance, because obviously Elon Musk has a huge Twitter following. He’s got a longstanding reputation in Russia through Tesla, the SpaceX space programs and also through Starlink. He’s one of the most popular men in opinion polls in Russia. At the same time, he’s played a very important part in supporting Ukraine by providing Starlink internet systems to Ukraine, and kept telecommunications going in Ukraine, paid for in part by the U.S. government. Elon Musk has enormous leverage as well as incredible prominence. Putin plays the egos of big men, gives them a sense that they can play a role. But in reality, they’re just direct transmitters of messages from Vladimir Putin.

 

[Visions]

Poland, Latvia, Finland, Czech Republic and Estonia will never let Ukraine run out of material, it's cheaper to fight Russia in Ukraine than when they're next in their own country. They just have to balance sending material without depleting their own ability to defend themselves. There is nobody who has such an interest in Russia. In fact, most countries, even China and India probably couldn't care less if the Russian regime fell, if anything it would be a bonus to them. China could snap up some resources even cheaper, possibly a bit of land too.

This! ideal chance for the west to decapitate the Russian army with losing any soldiers on their own behalf.

This is legitimately the perfect scenario for them.

 

[mighty tiges]

Or the factories in Iran could be bombed.

I do wonder if the US has a battle carrier group tasked with this in the Eastern med as we speak.


Also interesting to note that relying on Iran may be an own goal for Russia, as it is causing genuine concern in Israel and calls from senior govt minsters to arm Ukraine with air defence systems.

Yep, Israel would definitely see these Iranian drones as a threat to themselves too.

The US Navy has a central command in Manama, Bahrain and its 5th Fleet is responsible for its naval forces in the Persian Gulf, Red Sea and Arabian Sea plus neighbouring parts of the Indian Ocean.

United States Fifth Fleet - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[mighty tiges]

 

[mighty tiges]

 

[mighty tiges]

 

[Zidane98]

I looked at his Twitter for the first time, it's quite impressive.

The electric semi- truck looks smick

Relevance to Ukraine war?

 

[Saint]

Israel is licking its lips at a chance to test it's defences against Iranian missiles and drones. Expect they will deploy their own operators to the defensive weapons as well so they can learn as much as they can about effectiveness against Iran without risking Israeli lives.

 

[BATTERY]

Israel is licking its lips at a chance to test it's defences against Iranian missiles and drones. Expect they will deploy their own operators to the defensive weapons as well so they can learn as much as they can about effectiveness against Iran without risking Israeli lives.

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