Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 3

Cap · Nov 3, 2023

I just hope US aid gets passed soon

Visions · Nov 3, 2023

Mobbs said:
Visions it seems Vuhledar is back in the news.
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(videos compressed where necessary)

All from Denys Davydov's TG channel ocer a couple of links. [link] [link]

Edit: Might be closer to Mykilsk' which is one village to the east of Vuhledar.

Yes, Russia hoping that attacking for like the 37th time will surprise.

72nd mech brigade doing some good work down there destroying the orcs and keeping them at bay.

Frank Grimes · Nov 3, 2023

Visions said:
Yes, Russia hoping that attacking for like the 37th time will surprise.

I don't like to make light of the situation but that comment reminds me of Blackadder.

LewisHall · Nov 3, 2023

LittleG said:
Unless there is a major change in European & US involvement; Ukraine will be bled dry. Slowly and over a few years but bled dry none the less.

wannabejack said:
Zaluzhny: War with Russia moving to a new stage

Ukraine stopped a much stronger enemy, but now the war is moving to a new stage. â Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

“The war is now moving to a new stage: what we in the military call ‘positional’ warfare of static and attritional fighting, as in the first world war, in contrast to the ‘manoeuvre’ warfare of movement and speed. This will benefit Russia, allowing it to rebuild its military power, eventually threatening Ukraine’s armed forces and the state itself,” Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhny told The Economist.

""Weapons supplied by the West were enough to support Ukraine in the war,** but not enough to win. This war cannot** be won with the weapons of the previous generation and outdated methods."

LittleG · Nov 3, 2023

LewisHall said:
""Weapons supplied by the West were enough to support Ukraine in the war,** but not enough to win. This war cannot** be won with the weapons of the previous generation and outdated methods."

The war can only be won by opening a new front behind their lines; Providing overwhelming missile/bombs/explosives; OR the collapse of the Russian government. Nothing else will do.

Zidane98 · Nov 3, 2023

Mobbs said:
NEwS articles on Wagner wanting to provide hezbollah with pantsir s1 air defence systems. Sorry I'm on a train so can't link. Wagner = prigozhins son in case you're wondering.

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

Russia providing advanced SAM systems to rebel groups in areas where commercial airlines operate. What could possibly go wrong?

SA-12 missiles have a range up to 100kms. They could easily shoot down commercial airline traffic in Israel airspace or even international airspace over the Mediterranean either deliberately or by mistake.

Russia providing these to Hezbollah would be outrageous really.

Zidane98 · Nov 3, 2023

LittleG said:
The war can only be won by opening a new front behind their lines; Providing overwhelming missile/bombs/explosives; OR the collapse of the Russian government. Nothing else will do.

Absolutely. A blitz of F16s, ATACMS and advanced drones is needed on Kerch bridge and supply lines from Russia to Ukraine through Donbas.

Combine this with troops from Baltics, Romania, Poland & Moldova fighting alongside Ukranians to protect their countries and a victory would be very achievable.

We are surely past the stage of worrying about whether Putin is upset. His threats are more empty than Freo's trophy cabinet.

LewisHall · Nov 3, 2023

LittleG said:
The war can only be won by opening a new front behind their lines; Providing overwhelming missile/bombs/explosives; OR the collapse of the Russian government. Nothing else will do.

The media recently was going with the narrative NATO and US stockpiles are getting low.

wannabejack · Nov 3, 2023

The War in Ukraine with General Ben Hodges - Episode 4 – RDI

Helsinki's Giant Bomb Shelters - The War in Ukraine with General Ben Hodges - Episode 4

rdi.org

When the war is over Ukraine need to use Finland as an example and be prepared, because you can never trust Russia.

wannabejack · Nov 3, 2023

You searched for ben hodges – RDI

rdi.org

Nothing · Nov 3, 2023

LewisHall said:
The media recently was going with the narrative NATO and US stockpiles are getting low.

Which media?

Do you believe this to be the case?

LewisHall · Nov 3, 2023

Nothing said:
Which media?

Do you believe this to be the case?

The Australian Naval Institute. breakingdefense.com. CNN. BBC. Nytimes. Etc .

I have no idea as to the UN/US weapons stock pile situation

jatz14 · Nov 4, 2023

LewisHall said:
The Australian Naval Institute. breakingdefense.com. CNN. BBC. Nytimes. Etc .

I have no idea as to the UN/US weapons stock pile situation

South Korea by itself could probably keep Ukraine going for years.

It has a policy this far of not directly supplying material to Ukraine, but an easy around is to supply the US. US gets new inventory from SK, supplies Ukraine from it's old stock.

On moto g(6) plus using BigFooty.com mobile app

Present Not Past · Nov 4, 2023

LewisHall said:
""Weapons supplied by the West were enough to support Ukraine in the war,** but not enough to win. This war cannot** be won with the weapons of the previous generation and outdated methods."

This war has been going on since 2014.
I can't see it ending anytime soon.

Smeg Head · Nov 4, 2023

Two articles published this week give a stark assessment of Ukraine’s prospects in its war with Russia. One – by the commander in chief of the Ukrainian military – admits the battlefield has reached a stalemate and a long attritional war benefiting Moscow beckons. The other portrays Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as exhausted by the constant effort to cajole and persuade allies to keep the faith.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/03/world/ukraine-president-warns-long-attritional-war/index.html

Zidane98 · Nov 4, 2023

Nothing said:
Which media?

Do you believe this to be the case?

Rt.com, TASS, The Grayzone etc etc

Mobbs · Nov 4, 2023

LewisHall said:
The media recently was going with the narrative NATO and US stockpiles are getting low.

This was a true report, but described in terms of upping production as a result of crunching the numbers. I believe any shortage on what is sent to Ukraine is not due to a shortage in stock, but due to the supposed allies playing funny buggers.

There was a really interesting point way back then when it was discussed (I think on the Telegraph podcast) is that the contractors who produce armaments need security if they are going to expand production for a request. That security is a longer contract for whatever other purposes. So if you go to "We Make Missles Pty Ltd" and say we need 300% what youre making now, they say back "well then we need 10 years of commitment to buy" and then "Buyingmissilesland" goes back and works out what other things they can shunt around so that "We Make Missiles Pty Ltd" has a long-term contract. Elsewise they will build a new factory for 1 or 2 years at a cost equal to the income that factory will bring them, and then have a massive white elephant. Which makes them sound like an Olympic village in a way i dunno. And they are pissed off so they'd not take the contract in the first place.

LewisHall said:
""Weapons supplied by the West were enough to support Ukraine in the war,** but not enough to win. This war cannot** be won with the weapons of the previous generation and outdated methods."

A long time bugbear of mine - feels like nobody wants to help Ukraine, but everybody wants to show off to their buddies at their summits that they are helping Ukraine.

Moscow could have been a massive hole in the ground right now.

Mobbs · Nov 4, 2023

Suicide bombers attack Kharkiv.
Kharkov was attacked by about 10 suicide bombers. A service station and cars were on fire, the building where displaced people lived was destroyed, an educational institution was damaged, - the prosecutor's office

All services are on site, there is no information about casualties. Meanwhile, Russia is attacking the western part of Ukraine with suicide bombers. Air defense has already worked in the Lviv region. [Denys Davydov TG link]

Ok so he writes about suicide bombers in Kharkiv (eastern Ukraine), then also says suicide bombers were attacking western Ukraine, then says air defense was in action responding, in Lviv (western Ukraine)

This does not compute. Air defense does not kick in for suicide bombers. So he means 1 of 2 things:
1. Kharkiv - suicide bombers. Lviv - rocket strikes.
or more likely imo:
2. Kharkiv and Lviv - kamikaze drones

One thing is sure, Denys is still learning english. He would be happy to have sayed that himself.

Mobbs · Nov 4, 2023

Denys in shoosh mode (timeset to the moment I'm talking about. no text).

Mobbs · Nov 4, 2023

Residents of Tyumen oppose the war with the help of toys They leave them all over the city: in shopping centers, in transport and in entrances. [ASTRA TG]

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LewisHall · Nov 4, 2023

Mobbs said:
This was a true report, but described in terms of upping production as a result of crunching the numbers. I believe any shortage on what is sent to Ukraine is not due to a shortage in stock, but due to the supposed allies playing funny buggers.

There was a really interesting point way back then when it was discussed (I think on the Telegraph podcast) is that the contractors who produce armaments need security if they are going to expand production for a request. That security is a longer contract for whatever other purposes. So if you go to "We Make Missles Pty Ltd" and say we need 300% what youre making now, they say back "well then we need 10 years of commitment to buy" and then "Buyingmissilesland" goes back and works out what other things they can shunt around so that "We Make Missiles Pty Ltd" has a long-term contract. Elsewise they will build a new factory for 1 or 2 years at a cost equal to the income that factory will bring them, and then have a massive white elephant. Which makes them sound like an Olympic village in a way i dunno. And they are pissed off so they'd not take the contract in the first place.

A long time bugbear of mine - feels like nobody wants to help Ukraine, but everybody wants to show off to their buddies at their summits that they are helping Ukraine.

Moscow could have been a massive hole in the ground right now.

You don't think, from a Russian perspective. The west gets nuked to smithereens if Moscow starts to become a hole in the ground?

What's the point of six thousand nuclear weapons if you allow your capital to become a hole.

The policy is to nuke people if there is "mass destruction" against it which taking out Moscow would seemingly include.

Mobbs · Nov 4, 2023

LewisHall said:
You don't think, from a Russian perspective. The west gets nuked to smithereens if Moscow starts to become a hole in the ground?

What's the point of six thousand nuclear weapons if you allow your capital to become a hole.

Well, it was a hyperbolic and flippant comment borne of my anger at the bureacracy behind western support. I know people in Moscow and I don't really want them to die.

But there's a part of me that has no problem with the extinction of the human race if at least it means we went out finally trying to be decent animals for the first time in our history!

Mobbs · Nov 5, 2023

Got involved in discussions about Amnesty International and the events re Ukraine late last year, while commenting on another thread where their assessments are involved. I've been asked to expand on the accusations against them, but I'm a bit seedy from a Saturday so this might be slow going.

I had mentioned the first links i could find to AI re Ukraine which were their own statement when they backed down (in some eyes argued there had been misunderstanding) Repeated here : [Statement re response to article on UKR tactics] [Resignation of Ukrainian AI rep]

I was quiite fairly told that on the face of the first article there isn't a lot to see. The second link did not get any traction. Need to reverse research and found posts from our own awesome community here on the War In Ukraine thread(s):