Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 3

[Visions]

Reports of more craft sunk in Crimea. Apparently 2 x landing craft. I'm trying to work out if it's legit and if so specifically where in Crimea.

Russian landing boats struck in Crimea sank. Two boats of the invaders suffered defeats: one ship of the more ancient project 1176 “akula”, the other newer - project 11770 “serna”. As a result of the attack, both Russian ships sank: the “shark” - immediately, the “chamois” - still unsuccessfully fought for survivability, but also sank. [Trukha Crimea]

Edit:
Ukrainian intelligence reported the defeat of two Russian landing boats of the Black Sea Fleet. The ships, the Main Intelligence Directorate claims, were hit by surface drones in the area of the Crimean Uzkaya Bay: “One ship is an older project 1176 “Akula”, the other is a newer one - project 11770 “Serna”. The Russian Ministry of Defense does not comment on the situation. [SOTA]

Seems to be at Chornomors'ke in north-western Crimea.

Yep, Ukraine have released footage of the naval drone attack with direct hits. Seems that the only ones that saw this coming were the seagulls in the water who crapped themselves as the drones passed by.

 

[Visions]

Nov. 5

http://[URL='https://www.businessin...er-armored-vehicles-lost-2023-11[/URL[/COLOR]

]

Russia's equipment losses over the past few weeks have been so staggering that it is likely now requiring its soldiers to advance on foot in an effort to capture the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka, the UK's Ministry of Defense said in an intelligence briefing on Saturday.

The British analysis tracks with a report this week from the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, that estimated at least 197 Russian armored vehicles had been lost or damaged. Just under a hundred were lost in the first week of the offensive, which began Oct. 9, it said.

That compares to Ukraine losing about 200 vehicles in over four months of fighting in Zaporizhzhia, ISW military analyst George Barros told Insider. "We can conclude now that this is by far the most costly Russian assault during three weeks for one city since the beginning of the war," he said.

This is an action replay of both the failed Vuhledar attack (equipment wise) and Bakhmut (soldier wise).

With Bakhmut they gained the town after relentless human wave attacks committed by convicts of the Wagner Group who had no choice. What do they have to offer here?

Ukraine's commander claims that about 350 pieces of equipment have been lost in addition to artillery and planes, and offers a number of 10,000 orcs killed.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Kyiv Post has an article about Russian losses. it doen't really add anything much definite in numbers, but it does includes some interesting quotes. The head of a Russian tactical medicine training center, Artem Katulin, told the RIA Novosti news agency that more than half of Russia’s dead troops died from non-life-threatening wounds because of improper medical care in the field. I think there has been previous commentary in this thread that Russia is likely to have much worse medical care than Ukraine. Russia’s Deputy Labor Minister Alexei Vovchenko at a Oct. 17 briefing to Russian politicians said that more than half of wounded Russian soldiers returning from the war required amputations. This does not fit in well with Shoigu's statement that 90% of Russian casualties return to the front.

Analysis: Russia's War Casualties: Insight into Russian Losses in Ukraine

Russia has made no public statements on the military casualty figures it has suffered in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but Kyiv claims 22,920 died in Ukraine in October alone.

www.kyivpost.com

How many more people is Mr Putin willing to kill and maim with his dreams of resurrecting a dead empire.? Will a million dead Russian be enough? Would he reconsider then? After all it was 'only' 15,000 in Afghanistan and that caused issues for the Soviets. This is much greater.

Putin will continue to send conscripts to the front line, and will make sure no members of his inner circle have no family members sent to the front line.
Putin is not worried how many Russian soldiers die in his aim to take Ukraine.

 

[Andre]

It's just insane that can lose so much and keep going.

It's like the zombie apocalypse

Begging for equipment back now and still relying on old equipment being brought back as around half their replacements. Around half the old stores of tanks, artillery, APC’s and IFV’s have now being brought back (and large parts of destroyed). Given the more recoverable are obviously done first, they are probably a year away from those old stores largely tapped of recoverable equipment. At which point they are really screwed. The world is so close to removing Russia as a threat, it just needs to hold on.

I’m disappointed Australia isn’t doing more. To show Russia they can’t just wait out the West, we should be joining other countries pledging equipment for future years. Given their good reception, it should be a no brainer to do something like promising 50 Bushmasters each year from 2024 through 2030, as a starting point.

 

[Cap]

Incredible really. You can say what you like about Ukraine's offensive but there is no doubt they are successfully killing Russians.

 

[wannabejack]

Ukrainian Marines Still Holding Dnipro Bridgehead, Special Ops Busy

Mutual air strikes, mortar, artillery exchanges and road ambushes, but little progress in Kremlin efforts to wipe out a pair of strategic Dnipro River bridgeheads carved out by Kyiv’s Marines.

www.kyivpost.com

Kyiv’s nearly month-old presence on the left bank of Dnipro River was still holding fast on Friday with sides trading air, mortar and artillery strikes, and some Kremlin-associated bloggers declaring Moscow cannot eliminate the Ukrainian Marine-held bridgeheads without deploying reinforcements and especially ground assault troops.

The first confirmed reports of Ukrainian armored vehicles being ferried across the river to beef up Marine positions appeared on Wednesday. Ukrainian troop strength figures within the bridgeheads are a Kyiv military secret. Open-source estimates generally place the total size of Ukrainian troops across the river at 300-500 soldiers and less than 20 vehicles of all types.

 

[Mobbs]

Chatting

Ukrainian Marines Still Holding Dnipro Bridgehead, Special Ops Busy

Mutual air strikes, mortar, artillery exchanges and road ambushes, but little progress in Kremlin efforts to wipe out a pair of strategic Dnipro River bridgeheads carved out by Kyiv’s Marines.

www.kyivpost.com

Kyiv’s nearly month-old presence on the left bank of Dnipro River was still holding fast on Friday with sides trading air, mortar and artillery strikes, and some Kremlin-associated bloggers declaring Moscow cannot eliminate the Ukrainian Marine-held bridgeheads without deploying reinforcements and especially ground assault troops.

The first confirmed reports of Ukrainian armored vehicles being ferried across the river to beef up Marine positions appeared on Wednesday. Ukrainian troop strength figures within the bridgeheads are a Kyiv military secret. Open-source estimates generally place the total size of Ukrainian troops across the river at 300-500 soldiers and less than 20 vehicles of all types.

It's a really curious move by Ukraine ... sometimes the guess is for merely distraction and spreading RF forces out more, other times it looks much more like actually regaining ground. Apparently the RF are making things as difficult as possible using their gliding bombs. But still the Ukrainian defence slowly grabs a little more land every few days.

My personal viewpoint (I'm probably repeating myself) is that they are trying to compromise the supply route which goes via Crimea > Armyansk > into southern Zaporizhzhe, which is what RF needs to do whenever the Chonhar bridge is out of commission, though RF can still risk bringing supplies in via Donetsk within range of Ukrainian strikes. They are quite close to this route already.

 

[wannabejack]

Ukraine to Putin: You cut our power, we kneecap your biggest economic driver

“It would only be fair,” Galushchenko says of attacking Russian oil and gas in response to possible attacks against Ukraine's grid this winter.

www.politico.com

Ukraine is open to the possibility of attacking Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure if Moscow ramps up its targeting of Ukraine’s electric system this winter, Ukraine Energy Minister German Galushchenko said in an interview.

“When answering [Russia’s attack], we would answer by taking the same approach, attacking their energy infrastructure,” Galushchenko said.

Europe has already significantly cut its reliance on Russian oil and natural gas, largely thanks to imports of U.S liquefied natural gas. But Russia still sells large volumes of its fossil fuels to China and India, helping to keep a lid on global oil prices.

Galushchenko downplayed the idea that attacking Russia’s ability to produce or ship its oil and gas would cause a spike in prices, saying other producers could make up the supply.

 

[Smeg Head]

Yeah, a lot of people keep harping about how the orc army have endless supplies of everything. The fact that they went begging Nth Korea and Iran for weapons and ammunition, and are now trying to buy back their own exports shows that not everything is rosy and they face shortages in certain areas. Also the countries returning the equipment are probably happy to do as their performance in Ukraine shows just how poor the Russian arms industry is.

In that WSJ article that is quoted it states that in return for Egypt sending back those helicopter engines, Russia is waiving the arrears that is owed to them.

The longer the war goes on though the more Russia will ramp up its war economy in producing ammunition, shells etc. Sure they cant produce the highest top end equipment but that wont matter. They have all the raw materials and processing available to fuel it.

 

[Visions]

Incredible really. You can say what you like about Ukraine's offensive but there is no doubt they are successfully killing Russians.

And doing it without losing too much territory! Though there is a human cost on Ukraines side even if it is much lower than the orcs.

UAsupporter made a good point of this in his daily video. The orcs have lost 10,000 troops in the battle for the gain of two fields north of the city.
The latest was their 2nd wave which has exhausted itself out and they are now regrouping waiting for reserves to commence a 3rd attack.

This pause then gives the UAF a window to counter and take back some ground, which it seems they have taken advantage of.

 

[Mobbs]

Two residents of Rozhnyatova [western Ukraine], Lyudmila Volodymyrivna, and her relative from Kyiv bought two kamikaze drones. They collected almost twenty thousand hryvnias each from their pensions for the 10th OGSHB "Edelweiss". [Adept Counterattack TG post]

 

[wannabejack]

 

[wannabejack]

 

[Mobbs]

It's said that the two landing craft destroyed recently were used to regularly deliver troops to southern Kherson region, which would invariably have a relationship with opposing the gradually expanding Ukrainian bridgeheads over the Dnipr River.

 

[Mobbs]

There's been another partisan attack in Melitopol, with 3 RF VIPs forcibly decommissioned.

Weather has turned, some images of Bakhmut already show a quagmire.

Interesting point made re RF is that they don't care who they get behind in other conflicts. They win purely from the chaos, regardless.

Was a binge read in the early AM, didn't keep the links sorry.

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Zidane98]

 

[Nothing]

That's evidence of war crimes right there.

 

[Syd]

Lips like a plunger.

 

[Saint]

Avdiivka looks like it will be the Bakhmut of this coming Russian winter offensive. They've done the same thing, encircling to pinch supply lines with human wave attacks.

10,000 soldiers killed isn't a lot considering they have 300,000 in Ukraine.

Russia will continue to churn out conscripts (straight out of high school soon). That's the thing about a struggling economy, it makes joining the military the best job in many of the rural towns.

 

[CD Xbow]

Advancing rearward to more favorable positions. I wonder how significant this is.

NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@noelreports@mstdn.social)

Attached: 1 image Oh here we go again. 'More favorable positions'. "Having assessed the situation, the command of the Dnipro group decided to move its troops to more favorable positions east of the Dnipro, the Russian Defense Ministry said. After the regrouping, the group will release some of...

mstdn.social

 

[Visions]

Pfft. The late Heath Ledger's performance as the Joker is still the best.

 

[Visions]

Avdiivka looks like it will be the Bakhmut of this coming Russian winter offensive. They've done the same thing, encircling to pinch supply lines with human wave attacks.

10,000 soldiers killed isn't a lot considering they have 300,000 in Ukraine.

Russia will continue to churn out conscripts (straight out of high school soon). That's the thing about a struggling economy, it makes joining the military the best job in many of the rural towns.

10,000 dead soldiers is a lot if you have only committed 40,000 to that particular axis. Consider also that many more are wounded. Sure they can move more from other areas but then they deplete those fronts leaving them weakened.

Joining the military would be the best job for a lot of people in Russia if 1. The Russian Ministry actually paid their soldiers which they are forgetful of doing and 2. You didn't die on the battlefield (which is a good chance of happening) and got to spend the money if by chance it actually got paid.

 

[Mobbs]

Meat wave delivered by deminer and convoy destroyed. This is insanity. I warn that the footage is so grisly that I'm even putting my description within the spoiler tags.

Spoiler

They're getting abandoned while reaching injured for vehicles leaving them behind, the same vehicles merrily driving over them as they reverse and 3-point out, and the soldiers are left to crawl back along the path clearly gravely injured. One is on fire.
View attachment IMG_2095.mp4

Note that as I know people who have their partner or brother conscripted by the RF, and one friend soon to be conscripted, it's depressing to watch. I watch the footage trying to work out when would be the optimum/safest time to wave to a drone and surrender. I can see how it's not so easy.

 

[Frank Grimes]

Advancing rearward to more favorable positions. I wonder how significant this is.

NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@noelreports@mstdn.social)

Attached: 1 image Oh here we go again. 'More favorable positions'. "Having assessed the situation, the command of the Dnipro group decided to move its troops to more favorable positions east of the Dnipro, the Russian Defense Ministry said. After the regrouping, the group will release some of...

mstdn.social

It looks like that announcement is either not true at worst; or accidently released early at best.



Would be a big retreat if they do leave that area. I wonder if Ukraine could reasonably safely get heavy armour across with that bridge head? Probably not seeing I doubt Russia wouldn't be so willing to withdraw.

 

[Saint]

10,000 dead soldiers is a lot if you have only committed 40,000 to that particular axis. Consider also that many more are wounded. Sure they can move more from other areas but then they deplete those fronts leaving them weakened.

Joining the military would be the best job for a lot of people in Russia if 1. The Russian Ministry actually paid their soldiers which they are forgetful of doing and 2. You didn't die on the battlefield (which is a good chance of happening) and got to spend the money if by chance it actually got paid.

But depleting troops in defensive areas in winter is what Russia didn't care about last Winter. They thinned the line and put everything into Bakhmut and will do the same with Avdiivka this winter.

Russia is huge. They have 2 million people turning 18 every year, they're not going to be short of conscripts to call up, even if they have to avoid recruiting from western Russia.