Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 3

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The group puts the number at approximately 24,500 “combat and non-combat” deaths, not including the 15,000 soldiers listed as missing, many of whom are presumed to have died. In all, the group believes the real total is more than 30,000.
They also posited that about 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been injured in the war, on an assumption that there are historically three times as many wounded soldiers as fatalities.

Citing anonymous US sources, the New York Times in August published an estimate of 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed in the war, and about a half million dead on both sides.


From the New York Times article (August)
Russia’s military casualties, the officials said, are approaching 300,000. The number includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops. The Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.
 

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The group puts the number at approximately 24,500 “combat and non-combat” deaths, not including the 15,000 soldiers listed as missing, many of whom are presumed to have died. In all, the group believes the real total is more than 30,000.
They also posited that about 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been injured in the war, on an assumption that there are historically three times as many wounded soldiers as fatalities.

Citing anonymous US sources, the New York Times in August published an estimate of 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed in the war, and about a half million dead on both sides.


From the New York Times article (August)
Russia’s military casualties, the officials said, are approaching 300,000. The number includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops. The Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.
This echoes the way Russia fought the First and Second World Wars - not as well-equipped as the enemy but able to withstand many, many more casualties by weight of population.
 
RF begin to outlaw the rights of medicial facilities to perform abortions, citing random claims of criminal activities and health risks. The post replete with people calling it out for what it is : religious nutbaggery and a despotic approach to giving the population a kick-along. Can't make waves without meat!



"Russian authorities are (again) concerned about the birth rate. But instead of thinking about real family support, they press on women's reproductive rights and continue to bring incredible nonsense."

“VOLUNTARY” REFUSAL OF PRIVATE CLINICS TO DO ABORTIONS Private clinics in the Kursk region, Crimea, Mordovia, Tatarstan and Chelyabinsk region decided to refuse abortions “independently”. The State Duma is currently preparing a bill that would ban abortions in private medical institutions at the federal level. The deputies explained their intentions by saying that the clinics allegedly do not provide statistics on the number of pregnancy terminations, do not give the woman time to think about the decision, and generally perform “criminal abortions.”
 
Good Times Bad Times youtube channel does a piece suggesting that Bashkortostan (shortened from it's Australian footy analogue Gothebashkortostan) wants to secede from the Russian Federation. I believe a lot of his underlying points are probably true, but for the most apart, a leader living in exile in another country - that loves to kill/oppress anyone who disagrees with them - might struggle to initiate independence proceedings.

 
Russsia withdraws

This news is a few days old and focuses in the Kherson region and Dnipro river near the Crimean border.

Not sure if there is any truth in the matter but I dare say Russia is running out of human & military resources to defend that region whilst maintaining their defense in Zaporizhia and their offense in Avdiivka and other locations.

Ukraine must keep the pressure and intensity up so they can deny a Russian regrouping. This could be good news for USA assist packages as they are now seeing significant progress to warrant further investment.
 

One day after the retreat, Russia announced that it is building a permanent naval base on the Black Sea coast in the occupied region of Abkhazia, which is internationally recognized as Georgian territory. Now that Russia is planning to transfer warships to Abkhazia, it could allow for the region to be more easily annexed. It’s a slap in the face for Georgia’s pro-Russian government.

Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two regions in Georgia, have been under Russian occupation since a brief 2008 war, where Russia seized nearly 20% of Georgian territory. Russia views these regions as independent states, contrary to Georgia's stance of unlawful occupation and the international community's condemnation. In both areas, Russia has established substantial military bases.

If Russia does begin launching strikes against Ukraine from Georgian territory, Ukraine might very well be forced to strike Russian naval forces there, opening up a new front in the Russo-Ukrainian war.
 



Vlad knows his place.

China will always choose USA trading relationship over Russia.
Xi wants Russia (and the West weakened) as he has his eyes on parts of Siberia as one of his future acquisitions.

He just supported Putin (and Hamas) as part of a plan to weaken and divide his rivals.

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This echoes the way Russia fought the First and Second World Wars - not as well-equipped as the enemy but able to withstand many, many more casualties by weight of population.
The revolt of the soldiers in WW1 suggests they are not in fact, able to sustain many more casualties.

In WW2, they didn't have a choice, the Germans did. In this war, Ukraine has the roll of the Soviets in WW2, and Russia is playing Germany..
So, I suspect Ukraine's ability to sustain losses from the war it's fighting on its soil to defend itself, is greater than Russia's.

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This echoes the way Russia fought the First and Second World Wars - not as well-equipped as the enemy but able to withstand many, many more casualties by weight of population.
Western aid to the USSR also played a big part in helping them turn the tide. Just always downplayed by their propaganda about the war for obvious reasons.
 

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This echoes the way Russia fought the First and Second World Wars - not as well-equipped as the enemy but able to withstand many, many more casualties by weight of population.

Second World War not initially. If it wasn’t for the Lend Lease program underwritten by…you guessed it the US then they would have been obliterated.

Short memories the Russians.
 
Western aid to the USSR also played a big part in helping them turn the tide. Just always downplayed by their propaganda about the war for obvious reasons.
I brought this up with an elderly Russian gentlemen I know well. He knows well about lendlease and seemed almost ashamed to admit it.
 

Almost two years after the start of the war, Germany has gradually emerged as Kyiv's leading military supporter in Europe. According to the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine support tracker, Berlin has committed over €17.1 billion in military aid to Ukraine since January 24, 2022. This is certainly not on a par with Washington's €42 billion, but it is more than twice the UK's investment (7 billion) and 34 times that of France.

"Today, Germany wants to be exemplary in its support for Ukraine, to make up for its hesitations at the start of the war, but also its policy of economic openness towards Russia. The signing of the Nord Stream II gas pipeline after the [2014] annexation of Crimea was very badly received by Ukraine, the Baltic States and Poland," explained Schnitzler.

"The Russian invasion has broken the taboo on the issue of national defence in Germany," said Schnitzler. "The vast majority of Germans are in favour of supporting Ukraine, despite the cost, and are now aware of the importance of strengthening their army.
 
Scanning for mines?

According to Captain Roman Goncharenko, Head of the Hydrographic Service of the Ukrainian Navy, these systems are equipped with multibeam echosounders that allow them to take pictures of the bottom topography to increase awareness of the underwater space. He notes that this equipment is important for military sailors because it helps to detect underwater objects. These systems are used in port areas and enclosed water areas to create and update nautical charts and ensure safe navigation.
 
Hopefully those Danish drones will mean increased safety for shipping.
 
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The sentence has been delivered to Sasha Skochilenko, who was arrested for editing price tags in a store to texts which protested against the injustices of the "Special Operation".

Sasha has been sentenced to 7 years jail - unsure if her 18 months already spent in detention is part of that, or on top of.


As I'd regularly said, sometimes to my Russian friends, in Australia she'd probably have got done for vandalism and petty hooliganism, and been given a stern warning and perhaps some kind of nominal fine.
 
The sentence has been delivered to Sasha Skochilenko, who was arrested for editing price tags in a store to texts which protested against the injustices of the "Special Operation".

Sasha has been sentenced to 7 years jail - unsure if her 18 months already spent in detention is part of that, or on top of.


As I'd regularly said, sometimes to my Russian friends, in Australia she'd probably have got done for vandalism and petty hooliganism, and been given a stern warning and perhaps some kind of nominal fine.
Very courageous girl.
"Skochilenko has been held for nearly 19 months before her trial, meaning that her overall term will be reduced by more than two years since every day served in a pre-trial detention centre counts as 1.5 days of time served in a regular penal colony."
 
Bakhmut was stormed by convicts who had nothing to lose and Wagner who are just professional terrorists, and they lost between 30-50K in that battle alone.

They can call as many up as they want, but an 18yo just out of puberty who is scared sh!tless and doesn’t want to be there is just a disaster waiting to happen. And while the people back home don’t give a crap about dead Wagner and convicts, pretty sure 50,000 dead 18yo soldiers will kick up a bit of a stink back in mother Russia no matter how much the propaganda machine spins it.

Wagner is storming Avdiivka too. They are just integrated into the regular army now. Not sure about convicts.

If Russia has lost 320,000 people as reported will a few more make much difference?

Furthermore Avdiivka and Bakhmut were very costly on the defenders. Physiologically, it must be like hell too proper scary stuff.

It's not just Russia losing people or that have got sustainability issues.
 
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Wagner is storming Avdiivka too. They are just integrated into the regular army now. Not sure about convicts.

If Russia has lost 320,000 people as reported will a few more make much difference?

Furthermore Avdiivka and Bakhmut were very costly on the defenders. Physiologically, it must be like hell too proper scary stuff.

It's not just Russia losing people or that have got sustainability issues.
Could you define storming for me in this context? To me, storming means rushing with success. RF are crawling repeatedly into failure over and over and gaining an inch or two every few weeks.

Like with Bakhmut, if RF take Avdiivka by, say, Feb next year, then RF lost that battle.

Yes Wagner is being reconstituted under another name with some unknown percentage of ex-Wagner and some unknown percentage of non-Wagner. Wagner itself (much like Fitzroy, is off doing other stuff elsewhere under the leadership of Postgozhin's son.
 
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