Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Baldur]

Sabotage

https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-suspected-sabotage-campaign-steps-up-europe-2024-10-21/

Russian espionage, sabotage in Europe now ‘more likely,’ Norwegian intel chief warns

Western spy agencies have been increasingly warning of the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare tactics.

www.politico.eu

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03071847.2024.2401232

Aircraft jamming

Thousands of flights to and from Europe affected by suspected Russian jamming

About 46,000 aircraft have logged GPS problems over Baltic Sea since August, says report

www.theguardian.com

Russia accused of jamming GPS navigation

Experts say Russia has been jamming GPS signals in certain European regions, leading to disruption for civilian aircraft.

www.bbc.com

Russia’s Pawprints on Aircraft Jamming Outbreak

Russia’s suspected jamming of satellite navigation systems is getting worse, and having an increasingly serious affect across the Baltic.

cepa.org

Spies

Russian spies sentenced in Slovenia after pleading guilty

Pair’s conviction could pave way for inclusion in any future prisoner exchange between Russia and west

www.theguardian.com

Two Australian citizens charged with an espionage-related offence | Australian Federal Police

Two Russian-born Australian citizens accused of obtaining Australian Defence Force material to share with Russian authorities will face Brisbane Magistrates Court today after being charged with an espionage-related offence. ***Vision and images available via Hightail***

www.afp.gov.au

Suspected spies for Russia held in major UK security investigation

Three Bulgarian nationals suspected of spying in the UK for Russia face trial for "fake passports".

www.bbc.com

Poland arrests nine suspects over alleged Russian sabotage plot

Prime minister Donald Tusk says detained are accused of ‘beatings, arson and attempted arson’

www.theguardian.com

How long until there is a mass casualty event in a NATO nation? If its Germany, they may well turn the other cheek, but France or Poland?

 

[wannabejack]

So what’s NATO’s “line in the sand” with russia?

 

[Baldur]

So what’s NATO’s “line in the sand” with russia?

There is no NATO line in the sand. Each member has its own threshold at which they seek to rely on article 5 and each member responds a request for aid by taking such action as that member deems necessary. One only has to look at German reluctance in Afghanistan to see the tensions that arise.

https://www.cmi.no/publications/file/4471-a-reluctant-warrior.pdf

https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/103497/a4-2009.pdf

 

[Aussie in exile]

Reports come in of 40 North Korean soldiers killed in Kursk

A video purports to show a North Korean soldier who fought in the Battle of Kursk in Russia, claiming to be the only survivor of a small unit of 40 soldiers.

bulgarianmilitary.com

A video circulating on social media platforms X and Telegram purports to show an interview with a North Korean soldier who fought in the Battle of Kursk in Russia, claiming to be the only survivor of a small unit of 40 North Korean soldiers. Multiple sources are sharing the video, but BulgarianMilitary.com cannot independently verify its authenticity or the story of the alleged interviewee.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has confirmed that, as of yet, North Korean forces in Russia have not faced Ukrainian troops, nor have they been engaged in battle. President Zelensky stated, “To this date, North Korean forces have not participated in combat. They are preparing to join the fight [in Kursk],” dismissing media reports that North Korean and Ukrainian forces had already clashed and that North Korean soldiers had died in battle.

A lot more are going to die than that, and all because of 2 little in height mens ego

 

[wannabejack]

There is no NATO line in the sand. Each member has its own threshold at which they seek to rely on article 5 and each member responds a request for aid by taking such action as that member deems necessary. One only has to look at German reluctance in Afghanistan to see the tensions that arise.

https://www.cmi.no/publications/file/4471-a-reluctant-warrior.pdf

https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/103497/a4-2009.pdf

Yes, Germany’s operations in Afghanistan “were an effort to demonstrate military commitment while minimising risks for German soldiers.” So maybe a token effort.

Just like Afghanistan, in Ukraine NATO has ended up in a conflict without a real and detailed strategy. Also like Afghanistan the possible duration of the war in Ukraine is becoming a concern plus the possible entrance of a new US presidential administration is a real concern.
Perhaps the most significant example of NATO’s value is that they remained committed in Afghanistan over such a long period.
So even if they can’t decide on a “line in the sand” they need to remain committed in Ukraine over a long period.

 

[Mobbs]

The RF landing ship Novorcherkassk, struck by Ukraine nearly a year ago, is above water again!

 

[Mobbs]

Some nicer news out of Russia, they are planning to erect a massive monument to shaverma (a Russian take on gyros/souvlaki style wraps).
Personally, I've always wanted to try shaverma, it has been an out-of-reach exotic treat I've blathered about for years!

(image is a CG model based on the proposal, they did build it a couple months back but I ate that one so they have to build it again)

 

[wannabejack]

Australia transferred JDAM-ER to Ukraine

Australia has transferred JDAM-ER to Ukraine after they had been decommissioned by the Royal Australian Air Force.

mil.in.ua

However, it is not known when exactly and in what quantity the transfer to Ukraine took place.

JDAMs are GPS-based equipment kits that transform simple free-fall bombs into all-weather, precision-guided munitions.

 

[Mobbs]

Sandu wins Moldovan elections after run-off count.

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[wannabejack]

‘Grinding Halt’ For Russian Offensive? US-Supplied V-BAT A.I. Piloted Drones Threaten To Jam Kremlin’s Jammers?

According to a Wall Street Journal report, a new drone being developed by San Diego-based Shield AI was successfully field-tested in Ukraine in August. The vertical takeoff and landing V-BAT reconnaissance UAV can negate Russia’s EW advantage in Ukraine through its ability to operate in a...

www.eurasiantimes.com

The V-BAT is a relatively large drone with a 500 km range. In horizontal mode, it can loiter over the target area for 10 hours. In contrast, kamikaze drones currently available with Ukrainian forces cannot fly beyond 100 km and have a loiter time of 10 to 15 minutes.

 

[CD Xbow]

‘Grinding Halt’ For Russian Offensive? US-Supplied V-BAT A.I. Piloted Drones Threaten To Jam Kremlin’s Jammers?

According to a Wall Street Journal report, a new drone being developed by San Diego-based Shield AI was successfully field-tested in Ukraine in August. The vertical takeoff and landing V-BAT reconnaissance UAV can negate Russia’s EW advantage in Ukraine through its ability to operate in a...

www.eurasiantimes.com

The V-BAT is a relatively large drone with a 500 km range. In horizontal mode, it can loiter over the target area for 10 hours. In contrast, kamikaze drones currently available with Ukrainian forces cannot fly beyond 100 km and have a loiter time of 10 to 15 minutes.

I posted about the V-Bat in the science forums. The platform is an elegant solution to achieving VTOL capability while retaining the range that wings bring. It's not the only way but it is a simple way. It should be able to scale up. There have been a few tail sitting manned aircraft, the Convair XFY Pogo was probably the most advanced. I also really like the way the prop is in a shroud, much safer to handle, especially in a naval environment - think of launching a UAV from a wet, yawing and pitching deck. I think sailors will appreciate the shroud. However the article wasn't so much about the platform, as it's ability to work in contested environments with significant EW. This capability is going to be mandatory in military drones.

 

[wannabejack]

I posted about the V-Bat in the science forums. The platform is an elegant solution to achieving VTOL capability while retaining the range that wings bring. It's not the only way but it is a simple way. It should be able to scale up. There have been a few tail sitting manned aircraft, the Convair XFY Pogo was probably the most advanced. I also really like the way the prop is in a shroud, much safer to handle, especially in a naval environment - think of launching a UAV from a wet, yawing and pitching deck. I think sailors will appreciate the shroud. However the article wasn't so much about the platform, as it's ability to work in contested environments with significant EW. This capability is going to be mandatory in military drones.

From the article I posted.
While there can be little doubt that the V-BAT will pose serious challenges to the continued advance of Russian forces in Donbass, the drone is highly unlikely to reverse the course of the war.

So how important to Ukraine’s war effort is the V-Bat going to be?

 

[wannabejack]

https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/australia-to-boost-ukraines-maritime-defences/

Australia will gift 14 rigid hull boats to Ukraine, underscoring the Albanese Government’s ongoing commitment to support Ukraine in its defence against Russia’s illegal invasion.

The latest round of military support, valued at $14 million, will bolster Ukraine’s maritime and coastal defence,

 

[CD Xbow]

From the article I posted.
While there can be little doubt that the V-BAT will pose serious challenges to the continued advance of Russian forces in Donbass, the drone is highly unlikely to reverse the course of the war.

So how important to Ukraine’s war effort is the V-Bat going to be?

Not much, unless there is a million of them. I suspect they are reasonably expensive in the million dollar range. Note this is a guess. The only figure in the public domain is $198 million USD the USCG paid for them. Numbers unknown and what ever else is included in the price is unknown. To use them in mass you would like to get the price down to less than $100,000. If you build them in great numbers I can't see any technical reason you couldn't get them down to the price of a modest car.