Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Mobbs]

Unfortunately it looks like it's all up to the Europeans now. The least Biden could do on the way out, after his half-hearted efforts the last 2.5 years, is remove all restrictions on the weapons supplied. Putin isn't going to retaliate against the US, given his buddy Trump is likely into the White House (WTF America?!). At least they could get a couple of months of trying to destroy Russian forces properly before the tap is shut off.

Fully expecting Germany at least to wind back aid, saying they'll follow the US lead. Johnson for all his (many) faults was very strongly pro-Ukrainian. Starmer is ambivalent. I don't see him stepping up the aid, and trying to cajole those on the continent to also step up to fill the void.

I don't care that the US have set alight to their own country, they get all the dumpster fire they deserve, it's the effects elsewhere in the world that angers me this afternoon.

Agreed. Unfortunately for approx half of the population, the USA is essentially now a fascist enemy of humanity.

it remains to see if the "trump-proofing" Europe was talking about in the past has any actual legs.

 

[LittleG]

Ukraine War is now a European issue.


Let’s hope the Russian economy collapses and that ends the war soon.

 

[Zidane98]

Ukraine War is now a European issue.


Let’s hope the Russian economy collapses and that ends the war soon.

The last aid package passed in Congress is still going ahead. Nothing will change that nor will Trump want to either with many contractors and suppliers already set up to deliver the aid package.

Don't like the chances of another aid package being passed though. That'll be an issue for 18 months down the track.

 

[Andre]

The last aid package passed in Congress is still going ahead. Nothing will change that nor will Trump want to either with many contractors and suppliers already set up to deliver the aid package.

Don't like the chances of another aid package being passed though. That'll be an issue for 18 months down the track.

No way an aid package gets passed now, with Republicans set to control all three of Presidency, House and Senate. Locally it'll be interesting to see if Albanese has the guts to keep giving (underwhelming) aid packages once Trump is in the White House, or he'll quietly drop aid, so Trump can 'make his deal' (i.e. sell out Ukraine). The ALP has always felt like it's an issue of much lower importance, than it was for the Coalition, so I don't have any great confidence he'll show some spine.

 

[Rotayjay]

I agree with an ABC journalist's assessment that Trump will tell Zelenskyy, 'OK, it's time to cut your losses and give Russia those provinces. If you don't, I'm not sending any more weapons or money.' And is Zelenskyy in a position to tell him to **** off? No. And I think we will see an end to the war.

 

[Mobbs]

A strike on a Caspian Sea port.

 

[Zidane98]

 

[Zidane98]

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

It’s a joke that Trump winning is even a major issue. Europe has the capability to fully support Ukraine.

 

[Saint]

I agree with an ABC journalist's assessment that Trump will tell Zelenskyy, 'OK, it's time to cut your losses and give Russia those provinces. If you don't, I'm not sending any more weapons or money.' And is Zelenskyy in a position to tell him to **** off? No. And I think we will see an end to the war.

That would be a ceasefire, until Russia invades again. So not an end to the war, just a temporary pause. Much like 2014.

 

[Zidane98]

It’s a joke that Trump winning is even a major issue. Europe has the capability to fully support Ukraine.

Agreed and there is still the majority of the last aid package already passed in congress to be delivered to Ukraine. For the next 2 years at least Ukraine has more than enough support to hold off the Russian fascists.

 

[The Terrible Thinker]

Let’s hope the Russian economy collapses and that ends the war soon.

Not likely now as Trump will lift sanctions and hand back frozen assets and currency to Russia. That extra 300 Billion will come in handy for Putin's second phase.

 

[Zidane98]

Not likely now as Trump will lift sanctions and hand back frozen assets and currency to Russia. That extra 300 Billion will come in handy for Putin's second phase.

Trump can't do anything about frozen European assets.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Ukraine War is now a European issue.


Let’s hope the Russian economy collapses and that ends the war soon.

Also as well we as a country will have to step up when tRump reduces funding for the US pacific Fleet, which means higher taxes to build up our military

 

[Aussie in exile]

That would be a ceasefire, until Russia invades again. So not an end to the war, just a temporary pause. Much like 2014.

Russian military deaths in Ukraine now over 700,000

Putin's Losses In Ukraine Reach Staggering Heights Amid Russia's 'Meat Grinder' Tactics

Moscow has reportedly lost more than 700,000 troops on the frontline over the course of the war.

uk.yahoo.com

 

[Rotayjay]

I don't think the European aid and already-delivered aid is enough to stave off Russia. Maybe for some time, but not that long. If Trump turns off the American tap, Russia would eventually win if Ukraine keeps fighting. The swing state voters in America just sealed Ukraine's fate.

Granted, I was wrong about Ukraine falling straight away in my OP.

 

[Andre]

I agree with an ABC journalist's assessment that Trump will tell Zelenskyy, 'OK, it's time to cut your losses and give Russia those provinces. If you don't, I'm not sending any more weapons or money.' And is Zelenskyy in a position to tell him to **** off? No. And I think we will see an end to the war.

This doesn't make sense. I can't see Trump sending them weapons or money in return for giving Russia provinces. Don wants a deal, but 'hand over what you've lost' is only something that benefits the Russians. There needs to actually be something substantial for Zelenskyy to commit political suicide. He (and all Ukrainians) know a 'pause', is just time for Russia to re-arm. It'd only scrape into barely acceptable, if there were demilitarised zones within 50km of all the borders (including inside Russia) AND foreign troops were allowed within Ukraine to ensure this wasn't ignored by 'little green men'. Even that'd be a shit sandwich for Ukraine, but it's the absolute bare minimum to have it even considered IMO. Russia isn't going to go for any foreign troops in Ukraine, as they want to just pause and continue in 2 - 5 years.

 

[Zidane98]

I don't think the European aid and already-delivered aid is enough to stave off Russia. Maybe for some time, but not that long. If Trump turns off the American tap, Russia would eventually win if Ukraine keeps fighting. The swing state voters in America just sealed Ukraine's fate.

Granted, I was wrong about Ukraine falling straight away in my OP.

Only 10% of the last aid bill has been delivered. No president can tear up previously passed congress bills, just doesn't happen. Europe by itself with zero support can stave off Russia which is in crisis currently.

Trump simply won't be able to turn off support like a light switch either. That would be a dictatorship with no accountability. There are plenty of republicans in congress who support Ukraine plus Trump needs bi partisan support for his border security bills that he will undoubtedly want get approved in congress.

My prediction is Trump will scale support down gradually in further aid packages in exchange for support on border security bills.

 

[Baldur]

Only 10% of the last aid bill has been delivered. No president can tear up previously passed congress bills, just doesn't happen. Europe by itself with zero support can stave off Russia which is in crisis currently.

Trump simply won't be able to turn off support like a light switch either. That would be a dictatorship with no accountability. There are plenty of republicans in congress who support Ukraine plus Trump needs bi partisan support for his border security bills that he will undoubtedly want get approved in congress.

My prediction is Trump will scale support down gradually in further aid packages in exchange for support on border security bills.

Congress has authorized the president to deliver aid, but this does not mean the president must do so (Congress simply does not have the power to order the president to act in foreign relations). What Biden should do is ship as much aid as is physically possible and legally allowable in the next couple of months. But given he is scared of his own shadow, this will not happen.

Europe should be able to support Ukraine, but most have run their militaries down so much they simply do not have the stockpiles to do so. Russia is only in the fight due to the massive stockpiles of gear they got from the USSR. In any event the biggest European economy is Germany and they are scared of the concept of their own shadow.

 

[Zidane98]

Congress has authorized the president to deliver aid, but this does not mean the president must do so (Congress simply does not have the power to order the president to act in foreign relations). What Biden should do is ship as much aid as is physically possible and legally allowable in the next couple of months. But given he is scared of his own shadow, this will not happen.

Europe should be able to support Ukraine, but most have run their militaries down so much they simply do not have the stockpiles to do so. Russia is only in the fight due to the massive stockpiles of gear they got from the USSR. In any event the biggest European economy is Germany and they are scared of the concept of their own shadow.

It also passed in the senate and is tied to Israel in one package, of whom Trump is a big ally of. No president can pick and choose what parts of a bill that has passed congress and the senate, that's a dictatorship. The Ukraine / Israel / Taiwan aid package will be delivered, it's just a matter of how long it takes to be delivered. i

Trump is also big on border security and will need support in the future for it. This is where he will trade support for Ukraine in for support on border security.

 

[Andre]

It also passed in the senate and is tied to Israel in one package, of whom Trump is a big ally of. No president can pick and choose what parts of a bill that has passed congress and the senate, that's a dictatorship. The Ukraine / Israel / Taiwan aid package will be delivered, it's just a matter of how long it takes to be delivered. i

Trump is also big on border security and will need support in the future for it. This is where he will trade support for Ukraine in for support on border security.

As said previously, he can divert Pentagon resources elsewhere. Technically the aid could still be on the way, but stuck in warehouses somewhere, effectively not going. For all intents and purposes, it's what Ukraine gets shipped prior to his inauguration, that they'll receive.

Zelenskyy should tell Trump his border wall is a great idea, and he wants US companies to build them all across the Ukraine / Russia border. Ego stroking is the way to appeal to him.

 

[The Terrible Thinker]

Russian military deaths in Ukraine now over 700,000

Putin's Losses In Ukraine Reach Staggering Heights Amid Russia's 'Meat Grinder' Tactics

Moscow has reportedly lost more than 700,000 troops on the frontline over the course of the war.

uk.yahoo.com

What is the Russian official count for this...3 day operation?

 

[GhostofJimJess]

This doesn't make sense. I can't see Trump sending them weapons or money in return for giving Russia provinces. Don wants a deal, but 'hand over what you've lost' is only something that benefits the Russians. There needs to actually be something substantial for Zelenskyy to commit political suicide. He (and all Ukrainians) know a 'pause', is just time for Russia to re-arm. It'd only scrape into barely acceptable, if there were demilitarised zones within 50km of all the borders (including inside Russia) AND foreign troops were allowed within Ukraine to ensure this wasn't ignored by 'little green men'. Even that'd be a shit sandwich for Ukraine, but it's the absolute bare minimum to have it even considered IMO. Russia isn't going to go for any foreign troops in Ukraine, as they want to just pause and continue in 2 - 5 years.

We're talking Trump here. He simply doesn't have that level of understanding.

Whatever he does is for Donald, at that moment.

 

[Zidane98]

As said previously, he can divert Pentagon resources elsewhere. Technically the aid could still be on the way, but stuck in warehouses somewhere, effectively not going. For all intents and purposes, it's what Ukraine gets shipped prior to his inauguration, that they'll receive.

Zelenskyy should tell Trump his border wall is a great idea, and he wants US companies to build them all across the Ukraine / Russia border. Ego stroking is the way to appeal to him.

He can't pick and choose what parts of a bill that that has passed. If he were to do this he would have to do the same for the entire aid package. Israel than suffers and that's not what Trump wants.

A US government can't just walk away from contracts it has arranged with supply chains logistic operators either. The fact that the package is tied in with Israel means Ukraine will receive this aid package, it's just a matter of how long Trump drags it out for.