Weaver's phantom draft 2006

[Citizen Erased]

Sorry if this has been said but MITCHELL BROWN at pick 64!!!!! Sorry but he is a top 30 pick EASILY!............

 

[GRANGE_GSM]

weaver,tom shaldon played well in the allies game?i shall think not.only opinions,but mine is different.there were 2 or 3 better perfomers than him on the day!little kid ?tim mcintyre? played well, ?mark robinson?? was excellent i thought! i stuck around after watching a mate play in the VFL curtain raiser n they were the 2 that i noticed from a very ordinary vic side!there draft chances?.... spot on with the reiwoldt assesment i thought!

 

[bigswan]

Weaver, what happened to Sydney's number 65 pick?

 

[smithos]

why isnt sellar getting talked up as top 5 picks anymore?

Sellar hasn't kicked on as well as hoped, he had a pretty terrible championships albeit affected by illness but did manage to earn senior selection for Glenelg later in the year. Going by D.C results, he seems to have lost a bit of his speed but still tests well for a ruckman, the problem is he hasn't grown as much as people had hoped, if he was pushing 200cm he'd be seen in the same light as Leuenberger because Sellar is very young. Unfortunately he's more KP size yet moves like a ruckman; it all comes down to his height IMO, clubs are going to have to decide whether they are taking a ruck with good mobility and versatility or is he a CHF with average mobility and not a lot of attacking flair. At this stage his selection looms as a slight gamble, I can't see teams taking that gamble early in the first round when there are players like Selwood available, Collingwood may be in a position to select him as they may feel they are happy to take that risk with 2 early picks.

 

[big bomber]

i was really expecting better from you weaver, although your profiles were very insightful. This is how i see essendons picks:

2. Hansen
18. benjamin
20. dejurrkurra
36. Mourish
42. Sherringham
47. Davey/Boak if he slips this far

 

[ant555]

Another very good read For those who want to be too critical try doing one yourself that involves the in depth views/opinons of 70 players. No one will ever get the order correct but it is very good simply because it gives a good insight into a good number of players.

As for the Bomber selections.

2. Lachlan Hansen (Essendon). The Bombers have the tough task of choosing between an elite ruckman (Leuenberger), a superb CHF (Gumbleton) or the best CHB prospect we’ve seen in a few years. Hansen is the lowest risk and most ready to play quickly. Struggled at CHF and his best junior football has been rucking – which he won’t do in the AFL. With their lack of key defensive options and an ageing Fletcher, they could play safe. Gumbleton has more raw talent and Leuenberger is the other contender. Hansen is a good reader of the play and has genuine football nous.

Pretty much what is expected.

18. David Armitage (Essendon). Pretty well developed player who might not have as much upside as some. Solid, inside type who loves the packs. Hislop would be the other option if he were available. Armitage tested well in camp and his stocks are rising, won the Rising Star award in the QAFL. Bombers centre-square needs surgery and Armitage would replace Jason Johnson in time.

If he is available here i would be more than happy with him .

20. Chris Schmidt (Essendon) - Quite quick with passable skills off the half-back flank. Was second only to Gibbs at the Championship in a poor SA side. Has the right combination of size, speed and skills to be a valuable utility at AFL level. Needs to learn to keep his kicks down and get penetration on them – he kicks too many floaters. Also prone to fumbling which will hurt his chances in the centre square. Courageous in the spoil.

Not convinced with this selection. Given we have a good number of young half backs (Welsh, NLM,Slattery,Nash,Cole,McPhee) i dont see us spending pick twenty on one. Whe other problem area is questionable skills. We already have enough of them. I think they will use this pick on another genuine midfield type. But then again others rate his skills very highly.

36. Jarryd Morton (Essendon) – Outside HFF who has been used at CHF and CHB. Will be a 3rd forward or winger in time and has earned comparisons to Andrew Embley who plays a similar style and was similarly raw. Most clubs are prepared to gamble on those athletic types which bring some versatility to the table.

Dont know a lot about Morton but sounds like a reasonable pick here. If we take mids with pick 18 & 20 then we will more than likely take a taller option here. Dont be surprised if it is a defender though.

42. Caleb Mourish (Essendon). Everyone’s favourite smokey. Allegedly a tall ruck-rover with exceptional ability. Allegedly on the Essendon radar. Who knows whether he will be taken at all, let alone when. Pick 42 seems good territory for a gamble, any later and they might be gazumped. By all accounts returned extremely dire results at the state screening so don’t be surprised if he is a non-factor on draft day.

To be honest if they take this bloke before Grigg i will be disappointed. The hype is there but i suspect that it is only that. I cant see us trying to take to many reach's in this draft.

47. Gary Moss (Essendon) – Elite rover who has quick movement towards the ball from the ruckman’s hands. Good in tight and good vision for the handball and superb decision making. Was captain of WA and shows leadership qualities. Lacks size and pace and it is rare to see vanilla rovers prized come draft day but Moss may be the exception because of those footy smarts

If we get Moss i will be happy. Like you have said he is small and not very quick but he knows how to get the footy and how to use it.

68. Sam Jacobs (Essendon) – A 200cm ruckman who has supporters in SA but looked a true dinosaur at Championships time. Ruckmen take more development and Jacobs is tall enough to tempt some clubs to work with him. Already 100kg plus is a bit of a concern, generally you’d prefer a teenager to have to put on weight as opposed to sharpen up the puppy fat.

We wont use pick 68.

 

[Rave Slave]

Instead of some of the armchair recruiting experts having a dig at the effort Weaver has posted how about putting your name on the line and posting your own phantom draft.

I found it to be an interesting read and my money would be on Weaver's draft being far closer to the money than the majority of phantom drafts floating around this board.

Top effort that one

 

[ant555]

i was really expecting better from you weaver, although your profiles were very insightful. This is how i see essendons picks:

2. Hansen
18. benjamin
20. dejurrkurra
36. Mourish
42. Sherringham
47. Davey/Boak if he slips this far

If we take Mourish who is very unproven and an extreme risk before a bloke like Grigg or similar then some serious questions need to be asked. The mix we will take this year will be 3 talls 3 mids.

 

[tats]

You are a complete dud, delete this thread, this guy doesnt know what day it is

 

[Storm20]

Good work weaver, surprised to see Shane Edwards predicted so high though. Would like to see him stay in Adelaide though.

 

[big bomber]

If we take Mourish who is very unproven and an extreme risk before a bloke like Grigg or similar then some serious questions need to be asked. The mix we will take this year will be 3 talls 3 mids.

but grigg is a small and mourish is a tall and we need to take at least 2 KPP, also mourish is said to be up with gumbleton in terms of talent. If he is even half of gumbleton talentwise, he would be a good pick up at 36

 

[Pykie]

but grigg is a small and mourish is a tall and we need to take at least 2 KPP, also mourish is said to be up with gumbleton in terms of talent. If he is even half of gumbleton talentwise, he would be a good pick up at 36

Grigg is definately not a "small", he is very much the Andrew Embley size midfielder, around the 6"3 mark, and ran a very impressive 20m result in the camp. 2.92 or there abouts.

 

[Cap]

3 things

1) I hate how these threads get filled with morons bagging the original post so it takes ages to read through the actual interesting posts- can we make a rule of this board that if someone posts a mock draft (realisitic of course) or information on players, posts in reply that are non-constructive get deleted ? morons like that are the reason many good reports on draftees don;t exist anymore - opinions or unconstructive/abusive trolls are pointless, for some reason people take others opinions on a player personally (especially when that club drafts the player in question). It is even funnier when the troll justifies their post by saying that everyone has the right to an opinion while there abusie of another's opinion is still warm.

2) Weaver - as there is alot of idiots posting here I haven't been able to read all of the posts - but what is your theory behind Adelaide's recruiting strategy, I realise you make alot of assumptions and obviously your not an expert on every team - I just though adealide would be hitting the KF market pretty hard this year.

3) well done - great effort I really miss reading good posts on draftee players that gives me some info on them

 

[blaisee]

great job as usual weaver


a tremendous insight into the types of players available.

A question.

How good is this draft overall compared to previous years?

 

[Weaver]

cant see brisbane going for proud when selwood is still there

I rate Proud higher. I love his toughness and mongrel and think that Brisbane will too.

but it would be a waste to get hampson with 34 when he is a ruckman they have more than enough of them

The Lions have tended to carry more ruckmen than most clubs and consider them important. With Keating gone they are down to Charman, Wood and the frequently injured McDonald. I think they will want a ruckman but won't want to spend an early pick on one.

Regarding the Sheldon's, I wouldn't go both of them, as there are better options. I haven't seen Tom play, but rest assured we will not pick him, or Sam, purely because of the name. I highly doubt we will take either of them.

Sam would be drafted on merit in the 50s if he nominates. Tom would be in rookie list calculations. I have not suggested either would be drafted because of their names.

WE NEED A RUCKMAN, and we will definitely take one, whether that be at 19, 35, 51, or 67. Currie at 67 would be nice, but I think we will take one of Tippett or Renouf at 19..

Strangely I think the clubs that really need a ruckman are the ones more likely to take a 20 year old in the rookie draft. No 17 year old is going to play for 2 years. I think Carlton would be better advised building their midfield and looking at the very crop of ruck talent next year - Ben McEvoy or Matt Kreuzer are likely to be at Carlton next year with the Blues likely to have another top-4 pick.

I take it you dont rate Reiwoldt all that much Weaver? If we snared him at 33, ill be doing cartwheels..

I don't rate Reiwoldt. He has a flat-footed running style that sees him carry his weight on his heals. He is slow. Guys who take short-steps like him normally have acceleration - Reiwoldt doesn't. He needs to have his running action completely retooled. He is just a tall, elusive, flanker.

I doubt essendon will use pick 68. If we did, it would not be for a ruckman..

I said at the begining that I though most of the late picks would be passed on. More interesting to pick out a few late rounders. Essendon supporters insist they don't need a ruckman but Hille only has Laycock and Ryder in support and neither of those guys is a pure ruckman. The Bombers definately need a ruckman.

I'm sure that most readers appreciate the time and effort that goes into your list. That said, your prediction of Ben Eckerman going at pick 8 a couple of years ago highlights the difficulty of such a task. He in fact went 40 + and was delisted this year.

I'm pretty confident that your top 10 will bear no resemblance to the real deal.

As I am. But then I am realistic enough to understand that it is difficult enough to pick 50 guys who will get drafted from 68 picks - let alone get the order right.

A question: do you rate Trevor Oliver at all?

Not as an AFL prospect. He is a very heavily built centreman who relies too much on his bulk around the packs. He is a junior Dean Rioli in my book and I don't think the AFL is as open to non-athletes as it once was.

There aren't many top-notch inside mids in the draft - I'd imagine that we will walk away from the draft with one of Selwood, Proud, Armitage, Hislop or Connors wearing a Collingwood jumper.

I would agree that Collingwood need an inside guy. I however think that the laws of supply and demand in AFL-draft-land see the athletic freak types (Pendelbury, Egan etc) go first. The good, allround midfield types are in less demand and go later (Swallow).

I think that pace is perhaps the most prized asset in modern football and unless a club jumps early for someone like Edwards, then they don't get a quick player.

Weaver, I think your highly underrating Bachar Houli.

Quite possibly but I think you will find that the opinions on Houli are all over the place. Sometimes you see him and think he is a star in the making and other times you leave shaking your head. Beyond all that I think his injury history is a very serious concern.

Sellar won't drop to 12.

My principal concern about Sellar is what position he will play. I see him being caught between roles. I think he is the classic 194cm junior ruckman who will struggle to find an AFL spot.

Craig has said he will target KPP, and will go tall with their first pick IMO, especially given there is a fair chance Houlihan will be available at their next pick.

I would expect the Crows have done the research and realise the poor returns from forcing a selection on a second-tier bigman with an early pick. Unless someone falls to them I would expect them to wait on a late pick on someone like Austin.

Another team who will go KPP early IMO. More likely a forward.

Swans are definately one team who are reinventing the game and realise the pointlessness of second-tier KP types. With Kenneally saying he only has 3 years left and O'Loughling getting on I think Benjamin is ideal. I'll go out on a limb and say that Benjamin at 15 is one of the guesses I am happiest with.

Simply too good to slip this far, can't see the Eagles ignoring him if he's available.

I don't rate Jetta a top-20 pick. We'll just all have to agree to disagree on that one.

Cant see us going for inside mids or a non-athletic back pocket with our first two picks, especially when we pick up kennedy f/s.

As much as that might be true, it depends a little on who is available. O'Brien might not win an athletics carnical but he would be an upgrade on Osborne and a good replacement for Smith. Kennedy will have to play midfield.

As for Hawthorn changing tack, well one year isn't enough to make that call - yet.

You have us picking up 4 midfielders and 1 tall. Thats just WAY WAY unbalanced and out of whack AND against what the AFC want to get out of this draft.

I have you picking two talls Allen and M.Brown. An inside midfielder, a running flanker and a quick small. Pretty well balanced IMO.

JFYI Weaver,CC and Smart have both said that they will be changing policy this year and wont be drafting any small mids as we have to many

with the picks we have we may have no choice though

Almost impossible to pick what a team will do when first pick is 31. I'll admit Sheringham is a favourite of mine and I may have him too high.

I do think however they will take a key position defender with one of their picks. If M Brown or Grose are there in the later rounds I think they will get a big look by the Lions.

Lions will probably be confident that the likes of Plummer, Grose, White etc could fall through and be available for the rookie-draft 'concession'. Should be a powerful tool for them this year with a record QLD contingent. They should get 2-3 'free' players this year.

I doubt Sydney will go for someone such as Renouf if your summary is correct. We just delisted 2 young ruckmen, Chambers retired and we recruited an All Australian ruckman.

It is BECAUSE you have delisted ruckmen and have a 34 year old in the number 1 job that I think you will have to use a later pick on a ruckman.

Shane Edwards at 10 is way to early IMO. He's ok, but not that good.

I agree he's only OK. However he is very quick. Clubs prize quickness and there aren't too many speedsters around. I think Edwards will be top-20.

Do you not think Dean Kelly will get picked up? I can see Freo taking him at 79 if he's available.

No. I think like Sam Mitchell he'll have to go to a State League and prove himself at a higher level before someone gives him a go.

I don't like to be critical of someone who knows more about a subject than myself, but, that would have Hawthorn drafting 4 slowish onballer types,

There is a shortage of quickish onball types. Unless you want a 174cm midget (which most clubs don't) then it is a struggle.

I think that your predictions on West Coast's draft are pretty bold. Goldstein ahead of Morton ? Hmmm! Not saying that you may not be right and your reasoning seems sound but I'm just not sure about those selections.

I don't rate Morton too highly. Clubs love those tall winger/flanker types but it is hard to get excited about them.

Sorry if this has been said but MITCHELL BROWN at pick 64!!!!! Sorry but he is a top 30 pick EASILY!

Every year we have the same debates about the big gorilla KP prospects. Every year more and more of them get overlooked. Every year we see people lamenting the state of the game. Someone like Brown could easily struggle to get drafted.

 

[Sico 17]

Great read Weaver. Good to see a different point of view from the normal BF Phantom Draft, some things I agree with (Jetta) and some things I don't but thats what makes it good.

 

[Weaver]

2) Weaver - as there is alot of idiots posting here I haven't been able to read all of the posts - but what is your theory behind Adelaide's recruiting strategy, I realise you make alot of assumptions and obviously your not an expert on every team - I just though adealide would be hitting the KF market pretty hard this year.

I think Adelaide's strength is that they field 15 midfielders. Each of whom can get 15-18 touches. Everyone in the side can run. I don't think they will abandon that and someone like Houlihan would suit them perfectly giving them another guy like Reilly, Mattner, Massie, Thompson and co.

Also with Meesan and Maric I doubt they will want another big-bodied dinosaur type.

Hentschell, Perrie, Welsh - I think they will be cautious about simply recruting more 2nd-grade big blokes just for the sake of it.

I doubt there will be a big-bloke at 14 any better than the options available in the 30s and 40s.

 

[POBT]

I rate Proud higher. I love his toughness and mongrel and think that Brisbane will too.



The Lions have tended to carry more ruckmen than most clubs and consider them important. With Keating gone they are down to Charman, Wood and the frequently injured McDonald. I think they will want a ruckman but won't want to spend an early pick on one.

Top work Weaver as usual. I'd be happy with the sort of mix you have nominated for Brisbane. I still believe Brisbane rate Jetta and if he is still there at 22, then there is absolutely no doubt we will take him. Likewise Djerrkurra at 38.

Incidentally, I agree that we will want to take a ruckman and a local one at that. But if 2 of the 3 rated Brisbane rucks are still available at pick 34, then I think we might take a punt and leave our ruck pick until 38. If all three are available, we might even wait until pick 50. The key is that we have a rookie option and if we miss out on the ruckmen we have targetted, the club seems happy to keep developing him. But that picking at the edges - your draft is well reasoned and, unlike a lot of others, actually makes sense!

 

[GRANGE_GSM]

weaver,tom shaldon played well in the allies game?surprising to hear that,i never noticed him!.only opinions,but mine is different.there were 2 or 3 better perfomers than him on the day!little kid ?tim mcintyre? played well, ?mark robinson?? was excellent i thought! i stuck around after watching a mate play in the VFL curtain raiser n they were the 2 that i noticed from a very ordinary vic side!are them 2 there draft chances?.... spot on with the reiwoldt assesment i thought!

 

[jules101]

You are a complete dud, delete this thread, this guy doesnt know what day it is

oh and you do, do ya newbie?

 

[jules101]

I said at the begining that I though most of the late picks would be passed on. More interesting to pick out a few late rounders. Essendon supporters insist they don't need a ruckman but Hille only has Laycock and Ryder in support and neither of those guys is a pure ruckman. The Bombers definately need a ruckman.

I agree with you as I see Laycock as a foward more then a ruck, but Paddy Ryder will be a fine ruckman. I dont see why we would delist cartledge who we have put 4 years into and pick up another young ruck who might not turn into anything either...
I also disagree with us picking up Schmidt. We need KPP and midfielders, we have plenty of young flankers. You have obviously seen more of him but with NLm, McPhee, Welsh, Nash, SLattery I cant see us needing him.
Anyway Weaver, top effort doing this as there is no footydraft this year.. People are just having a go at you cos its diff to every1 elses, however we wont know til draft day who is right.

 

[dave_27]

Appreciate the effort Weaver.

Top read.

 

[macca69]

I rate Proud higher. I love his toughness and mongrel and think that Brisbane will too.



The Lions have tended to carry more ruckmen than most clubs and consider them important. With Keating gone they are down to Charman, Wood and the frequently injured McDonald. I think they will want a ruckman but won't want to spend an early pick on one.



Sam would be drafted on merit in the 50s if he nominates. Tom would be in rookie list calculations. I have not suggested either would be drafted because of their names.



Strangely I think the clubs that really need a ruckman are the ones more likely to take a 20 year old in the rookie draft. No 17 year old is going to play for 2 years. I think Carlton would be better advised building their midfield and looking at the very crop of ruck talent next year - Ben McEvoy or Matt Kreuzer are likely to be at Carlton next year with the Blues likely to have another top-4 pick.



I don't rate Reiwoldt. He has a flat-footed running style that sees him carry his weight on his heals. He is slow. Guys who take short-steps like him normally have acceleration - Reiwoldt doesn't. He needs to have his running action completely retooled. He is just a tall, elusive, flanker.



I said at the begining that I though most of the late picks would be passed on. More interesting to pick out a few late rounders. Essendon supporters insist they don't need a ruckman but Hille only has Laycock and Ryder in support and neither of those guys is a pure ruckman. The Bombers definately need a ruckman.



As I am. But then I am realistic enough to understand that it is difficult enough to pick 50 guys who will get drafted from 68 picks - let alone get the order right.



Not as an AFL prospect. He is a very heavily built centreman who relies too much on his bulk around the packs. He is a junior Dean Rioli in my book and I don't think the AFL is as open to non-athletes as it once was.



I would agree that Collingwood need an inside guy. I however think that the laws of supply and demand in AFL-draft-land see the athletic freak types (Pendelbury, Egan etc) go first. The good, allround midfield types are in less demand and go later (Swallow).

I think that pace is perhaps the most prized asset in modern football and unless a club jumps early for someone like Edwards, then they don't get a quick player.



Quite possibly but I think you will find that the opinions on Houli are all over the place. Sometimes you see him and think he is a star in the making and other times you leave shaking your head. Beyond all that I think his injury history is a very serious concern.



My principal concern about Sellar is what position he will play. I see him being caught between roles. I think he is the classic 194cm junior ruckman who will struggle to find an AFL spot.



I would expect the Crows have done the research and realise the poor returns from forcing a selection on a second-tier bigman with an early pick. Unless someone falls to them I would expect them to wait on a late pick on someone like Austin.



Swans are definately one team who are reinventing the game and realise the pointlessness of second-tier KP types. With Kenneally saying he only has 3 years left and O'Loughling getting on I think Benjamin is ideal. I'll go out on a limb and say that Benjamin at 15 is one of the guesses I am happiest with.



I don't rate Jetta a top-20 pick. We'll just all have to agree to disagree on that one.



As much as that might be true, it depends a little on who is available. O'Brien might not win an athletics carnical but he would be an upgrade on Osborne and a good replacement for Smith. Kennedy will have to play midfield.

As for Hawthorn changing tack, well one year isn't enough to make that call - yet.



I have you picking two talls Allen and M.Brown. An inside midfielder, a running flanker and a quick small. Pretty well balanced IMO.



Almost impossible to pick what a team will do when first pick is 31. I'll admit Sheringham is a favourite of mine and I may have him too high.



Lions will probably be confident that the likes of Plummer, Grose, White etc could fall through and be available for the rookie-draft 'concession'. Should be a powerful tool for them this year with a record QLD contingent. They should get 2-3 'free' players this year.



It is BECAUSE you have delisted ruckmen and have a 34 year old in the number 1 job that I think you will have to use a later pick on a ruckman.



I agree he's only OK. However he is very quick. Clubs prize quickness and there aren't too many speedsters around. I think Edwards will be top-20.



No. I think like Sam Mitchell he'll have to go to a State League and prove himself at a higher level before someone gives him a go.



There is a shortage of quickish onball types. Unless you want a 174cm midget (which most clubs don't) then it is a struggle.



I don't rate Morton too highly. Clubs love those tall winger/flanker types but it is hard to get excited about them.



Every year we have the same debates about the big gorilla KP prospects. Every year more and more of them get overlooked. Every year we see people lamenting the state of the game. Someone like Brown could easily struggle to get drafted.

Thanx for taking the time to respond to all these questions, Weaver. Much appreciated

 

[Thunderstruck]

Good work Weaver, even if it is a bit different to what most ppl envisage, the real draft also throws those curvebal selections and its good to see you have the balls to make it as real as possible

For the crows, we probably need 3 KP and 2 mids. Given strength of the draft from when we have our first pick will be mids we should go with a mid with our first pick. Not too sure about Houlihan tho. We do need KP but as you say the difference between a good KP at 14 is not much to a good Kp at 32 etc.

 

[Calcium Man]

You are a complete dud, delete this thread, this guy doesnt know what day it is

Mate you are a complete tosser!!

Wheres your complete draft with explanations??

Weaver never expressed this was how it would go or even that he would be close. Its just his opinion and it is a massive effort. You dont have to agree but dont be a knob!!!