Strategy What to do with pick 1 now we’ve got it - Do We Need Reid or is it Curtins

[Dylan82]

I've had enough of all of these kents already.

Nothing would satisfy me more right now than drafting H.Reid and watch him kick a bag against the tin-rattlers.


And anyone else wanting to entertain splitting the pick in this massively compromised draft needs to give themselves an uppercut as well.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Why are we concerned with contract negotiations when discussing draft strategy?

I'll take superior draft picks and the associated salary cap headaches over inferior selections and a comfortable salary cap.

Really bizarre direction you've taken your thought processes in.

Because if the best case scenario happens, you can’t keep them all anyway....

Alternative could be to split them up with some longer term deals for the top 10 picks but then that sets a bad example.

 

[shooshka]

Yep - It makes sense.

He's just so damn gifted at finding the ball, still a pretty good tackler too. I think and hope what might keep players like him viable is outstanding football nous. I personally believe if you have that, you can still carve out a career despite some deficiencies.

I suppose Caleb Daniel is another. A midget but great nous and nice kick. (Not the same type of player but still has made it work with deficiencies due to MENSA level footy IQ)

I've got a weakness for players like that. (I love the look of Watson from this draft, despite his size )

It’s what we lack as well, natural footballers.

At some stage we really should take the ‘risk’ on an accumulator in the 2nd round. The 30 per game player that has deficiencies but can reliably win clearances and also defend. Like a Sheed who can tackle (would settle for a slightly worse kick and lesser goal sense as a trade off).

We’ve built (assuming we add Reid as well) a good cohort of players who can breakaway from the contest but maybe don’t have the natural instinct of first possession (Ginbey, Kelly, Ledwards - probably harsh or too early for Hewitt and Reid, but both look damaging as 2nd possession types). NN papered over a lot, but now it is time to recruit our (lesser as not taken as high) version of Treloar, Crouch, Taranto, Guthrie, Oliver, etc


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[darksquare]

It’s what we lack as well, natural footballers.

Long, Burgiel, Hough, Hewett, Bazzo are a good start, though. (Chesser and Ginbey were drafted higher due to athletic traits).

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

Too many eggs in the one draft as opposed to picks itself if that makes sense. Having 7 players off contract at the same time and tied together is going to be ugly too mind you. I just think you want to stagnate your list a bit better

3 1st round draft picks etc is why GWS and Gold Coast have the salary cap messes they do have. Hard to give 3 players 600k a year each all at the same time. Easier to give 1 Harley Reid 800k a year , then in 12 months time you got your next pick 1 to give 800k too

So here is the flaw in your argument:-

1. If all 7 players make a big impact from the same draft, you would be offering all a 2 year extension at modest money (unless they are burning it). Recently, it has only GWS and the Suns that have had to pay silly money to extend players in their first 2 seasons. If we have to pay silly money.

2. If we have to pay silly money to one, it means we have found a champion. How is that a problem?

3. If we cannot fit all 7 (plus last year's crop) into a salary cap, then we have players that clubs will be lining up to trade for, and we get first rounders back in 2 to 4 years time like Cerra. We then get a Serong to replace.

I suggest your numbers of $600k and $800k are not being paid for clubs in established football cities. Daicos extended and I suggest that he is nowhere near $600k pa. Similar to Sam Walsh.

I would gladly take the problem of having too much young talent any day.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

So here is the flaw in your argument:-

1. If all 7 players make a big impact from the same draft, you would be offering all a 2 year extension at modest money (unless they are burning it). Recently, it has only GWS and the Suns that have had to pay silly money to extend players in their first 2 seasons. If we have to pay silly money.

2. If we have to pay silly money to one, it means we have found a champion. How is that a problem?

3. If we cannot fit all 7 (plus last year's crop) into a salary cap, then we have players that clubs will be lining up to trade for, and we get first rounders back in 2 to 4 years time like Cerra. We then get a Serong to replace.

I suggest your numbers of $600k and $800k are not being paid for clubs in established football cities. Daicos extended and I suggest that he is nowhere near $600k pa. Similar to Sam Walsh.

I would gladly take the problem of having too much young talent any day.

GWS has this exact same problem and it didn’t work out well for them though....

 

[Jupes]

how long until tassie ****s up the drafts? that is our window to load up. especially if nt or canberra or whatever come in straight after. might be a decade of compromised drafts inbound.

 

[WCE_phil]

how long until tassie *s up the drafts? that is our window to load up. especially if nt or canberra or whatever come in straight after. might be a decade of compromised drafts inbound.

We have most likely this and 2 more completely uncompromised drafts in relation to Tassie.

 

[Jupes]

We have most likely this and 2 more completely uncompromised drafts in relation to Tassie.

wew 3 is that it? we better pick the eyes out of them.

 

[Wooshaaaa]

Too many eggs in one basket and is just rushing the rebuild when it needs to be slower and more measured.

If you haven't noticed we are getting thumped by 100poinys a game.

Our Older eggs are cooked.

Half of the rest have salmonella.

We can't speed this rebuild fast enough.

7 players inside 40 would be a phenomenal addition to the already 8 we secured in the last 2 drafts and probably another 5 next year.

That's 20kids in 4 years. That's 20 players that will form the nucleus of the next 10yrs.

On Pixel 6 Pro using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

I’m just no picturing in 5 years time

”And with the Premiership Cup is all 7 of the draftees from 2023. What a group“

Reason is it’s never happened in AFL history....

Rebuilds are slow I’m afraid. Gonna have to suck it up and that most likely means pick 1 in 2024 too

 

[Wooshaaaa]

We have most likely this and 2 more completely uncompromised drafts in relation to Tassie.

All the more reason 7 picks inside pick 40 this year gives us as much opportunity to unearth and develop some talent before we lose access to it.

On Pixel 6 Pro using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Wooshaaaa]

I’m just no picturing in 5 years time

”And with the Premiership Cup is all 7 of the draftees from 2023. What a group“

Reason is it’s never happened in AFL history....

Rebuilds are slow I’m afraid. Gonna have to suck it up and that most likely means pick 1 in 2024 too

Nucleus. Squad mentality. Not all of them will make it and not all will develop at same rate but taking 7 improves our chances that 3 or 4 of them end up premiership players.

On Pixel 6 Pro using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Godfather32]

I’m just no picturing in 5 years time

”And with the Premiership Cup is all 7 of the draftees from 2023. What a group“

Reason is it’s never happened in AFL history....

Rebuilds are slow I’m afraid. Gonna have to suck it up and that most likely means pick 1 in 2024 too

The flaw in this theory of yours is that our recruitment team are going hit on all 7 picks, more chance that I've won the powerball tonight

 

[daddy_4_eyes]

I’m just no picturing in 5 years time

”And with the Premiership Cup is all 7 of the draftees from 2023. What a group“

Reason is it’s never happened in AFL history....

Rebuilds are slow I’m afraid. Gonna have to suck it up and that most likely means pick 1 in 2024 too

So you've never heard of the Eagles "Magnificent 7"?

 

[kranky al]

Bolded are the ones I'd have gone 4+6 over 1. I'd also argue that talent identification has probably gotten better over the last 10 years or so.
For me, it's more a 50/50 propostion. When I factor in TI improvement, I'd probably go 4+6, draft dependant of course.

I suppose the question is just how good we thing Reid will be? (I'm also a big Watson fan)


2001 Luke hodge vs polak and sampi

2002 brendon goddard vs tim walsh and steven salopek

2003 adam cooney vs farren ray and kepler bradley

2004 brett deledio vs richard tambling and tom williams

2005 was your first win- marc murphy vs josh kennedy and beau dowler

2006 bryce gibbs vs matthew leuenberger and mitchell thorp

2007 matthew kreuzer vs cale morton and david myers

2008 win 2 - jack watts vs hamish hartlett and chris yarran

2009 tom scully vs anthony morabito and gary rohan

2010 win 3 david swallow vs andrew gaff and reece conca (very close)

2011 win 4 - Jonathan patton vs will hoskin elliot and chad wingard

2012 lachie winfield vs jimmy toumpas and jackson macrae (Macrae - This has to be a win)

2013 win 5 - tom boyd vs the bont and matthew scharenburg

2014 paddy mccartin vs jarred picket and caleb marchbank (Draw)

2015 jacob weitering vs clayton oliver and aaron francis

2016 andrew mcgrath vs ben ainsworth and sam petrovski-seaton

2017 win 6 - cameron rayner vs luke davies-uniake and jaiden stephenson

2018 sam walsh vs max king and ben king (I really like Walsh but I'd still take the twin towers)

2019 matt rowell vs kachlan ash and fischer mc asey

2020 jamarra ugle-hagan vs logan mcdonalds and denver granger -barras (Pretty close to draw)

2021 jhf vs nick daicos and josh rachele (daicos was a f/a touted as pick 1) - No chance as FS but you still have to go 4 + 6

2022 aaron cadman vs harry sheezel and Elijah tsatsas (Too early but if I had to pick right now, it'd be 4+6)

Daicos would have been pick one yeah?

 

[Jandamarra]

If our pick is one, draft the gun

 

[Tyberious Funk]

FWIW, in the infamous 2004 draft where Hawthorn picked up Franklin, Roughhead and Lewis.... they also picked up Simon Taylor

Simon Taylor

Age

42

Ht

200cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.0

2star

K

2.6

1star

HB

5.4

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CL

0.0

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HO

14.6

5star

No current season stats available

D

5.6

2star

K

2.6

1star

HB

3.0

3star

HO

8.0

5star

, Matt Little and Thomas Murphy. So they really only had success with their first rounders. Anything after the first round is basically a gamble.

Still... Richmond also had three first round picks that year (I'd forgottan about the third), and picked up Deledio, Tambling and Danny Myer. Yikes. Imagine being the recruiter that pulled the trigger on Tambling over Buddy? That's the stuff of nightmares. Even worse than Melbourne having picks 1 and 2 in 2009, and picking up Trengove and Scully over Dustin Martin (ouch) and rounding out their third first-rounder, by picking Jordan Gysberts

Jordan Gysberts

Age

33

Ht

191cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.1

5star

K

8.9

3star

HB

10.2

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.5

5star

No current season stats available

D

21.2

5star

K

9.4

4star

HB

11.8

5star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.6

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CL

4.4

5star

. Yikes.

It just shows you that even having a stack of first round picks doesn't guarantee anything.

I'm ok with the idea of trading Pick 1 for something substantial (like three first rounders). But jeeze, you'd want to be confident you'd be picking up quality.

 

[briztoon]

Your first point - I would definitely bid on Walters unless the Suns did a sweetheart deal with us on their R1 - currently 7. By us not bidding at pick 1, they will save on finding 386 points. (Maths : 3,000 - 2,517 x 80%)

Next - under what scenario do you think the Suns would have the picks to tempt pick 1? Within the first 2 rounds, they currently hold picks 7, 26 and 30 with a future R1 and R2. That buddle alone would not get pick 1 and then where are their points for 3 academy bids!!

I'm not sure what your maths is trying to demonstrate.

To match a bid at pick 1 requires 2400 points.

To match a bid at pick 2 requires 2014 points.

There are lots of draft spreadsheets available on google (and on the draft page).

I agree the Suns don't have the picks to trade pick 1.

But WC would still have to offer the Suns a fair deal for their first round pick, which in my opinion means more points in THIS draft, than the value of their first round pick. As I've mentioned before, I believe the threat to bid at pick 1 is somewhat hollow, as the Suns should be able to trade for the required points easy enough.

 

[briztoon]

GWS has this exact same problem and it didn’t work out well for them though....

GWS are playing 3 players $1mil each per. And a 4th $800k. That's 4 players taking up 27% of the salary cap. Whereas Geelong are paying 1 player $1m.

The problem for GWS is not players on $600k.

The problem for Gold Coast was paying players not in their best 22 $600k per.

 

[briztoon]

FWIW, in the infamous 2004 draft where Hawthorn picked up Franklin, Roughhead and Lewis.... they also picked up Simon Taylor, Matt Little and Thomas Murphy. So they really only had success with their first rounders. Anything after the first round is basically a gamble.

Still... Richmond also had three first round picks that year (I'd forgottan about the third), and picked up Deledio, Tambling and Danny Myer. Yikes. Imagine being the recruiter that pulled the trigger on Tambling over Buddy? That's the stuff of nightmares. Even worse than Melbourne having picks 1 and 2 in 2009, and picking up Trengove and Scully over Dustin Martin (ouch) and rounding out their third first-rounder, by picking Jordan Gysberts. Yikes.

It just shows you that even having a stack of first round picks doesn't guarantee anything.

I'm ok with the idea of trading Pick 1 for something substantial (like three first rounders). But jeeze, you'd want to be confident you'd be picking up quality.

My personal opinion is that all aspects of talent identification has improved in the last decade, let alone the last 20 years. What's more important is identifying tiers, how significant the gaps are between the tiers, and if possible, where to position your picks if possible.

My opinion of this draft is changing a little. I'm not sure it's going to be as deep as people say, simply because there are a lot of academy or father son prospects in the first half of the draft. Top 40 looks good, until you remove the 6 or 7 club tied kids, then all of a sudden, you're not looking at 40 kids, but 33/34 kids. That kind of sucks for teams with picks after 33/34.

 

[Obeanie1]

We have most likely this and 2 more completely uncompromised drafts in relation to Tassie.

No draft is completely uncompromised.

The period Tassie starts they should suspend or end the lop sided academy access rights of the Qld and NSW clubs.

 

[Obeanie1]

My personal opinion is that all aspects of talent identification has improved in the last decade, let alone the last 20 years. What's more important is identifying tiers, how significant the gaps are between the tiers, and if possible, where to position your picks if possible.

My opinion of this draft is changing a little. I'm not sure it's going to be as deep as people say, simply because there are a lot of academy or father son prospects in the first half of the draft. Top 40 looks good, until you remove the 6 or 7 club tied kids, then all of a 2sudden, you're not looking at 40 kids, but 33/34 kids. That kind of sucks for teams with picks after 33/34.

What happened to it doesnt matter as clubs never had access to those academy kids anyway?

And clubs still need to use draft picks and list spots to land them, just with a discount. Suns likely to draft 100% Qlders not top level Vic kids or WA talent.

 

[briztoon]

What happened to it doesnt matter as clubs never had access to those academy kids anyway?

And clubs still need to use draft picks and list spots to land them, just with a discount. Suns likely to draft 100% Qlders not top level Vic kids or WA talent.

That was a discussion about trading for picks, and how to view the picks you might potentially be trading for.

As we were talking about top 10 picks, the discussion was you remove the club tied kids from the pool, and assess the talent remaining.

In that instance, it doesn’t matter if you’re pick 4 gets pushed back to pick 6, because you’re still drafting the same kid at 4 or 6.

It was not a discussion about the drafts depth.

 

[Obeanie1]

That was a discussion about trading for picks, and how to view the picks you might potentially be trading for.

As we were talking about top 10 picks, the discussion was you remove the club tied kids from the pool, and assess the talent remaining.

In that instance, it doesn’t matter if you’re pick 4 gets pushed back to pick 6, because you’re still drafting the same kid at 4 or 6.

It was not a discussion about the drafts depth.

End of the day if an expansion club drafts an academy kid that's one less quality player removed from the Vic,SA and WA talent pool.

The more Qld and NSW players picked early would suggest the talent pool is larger not smaller.

If these academy kids weren't top 20 picks the Qldand NSW clubs would be selecting Vic, SA and WA kids. Now THAT does reduces the available talent to everyone else.

 

[Rowan18]

No draft is completely uncompromised.

The period Tassie starts they should suspend or end the lop sided academy access rights of the Qld and NSW clubs.

Or at a minimum, let Tassie take the academy kids and prevent clubs being able to match when it is Tassie selecting them.

That would also be another way to give struggling clubs a leg up without priority picks impacting the whole draft.