Strategy What to do with pick 1 now we’ve got it - Do We Need Reid or is it Curtins

Keep pick 1, or trade it?

  • Keep pick 1, Reid is too good a prospect to pass on

    Votes: 255 64.2%

  • Trade it if there is an offer we can't refuse

    Votes: 142 35.8%
  • Total voters
    397
  • Poll closed .

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I've had enough of all of these kents already.

Nothing would satisfy me more right now than drafting H.Reid and watch him kick a bag against the tin-rattlers.


And anyone else wanting to entertain splitting the pick in this massively compromised draft needs to give themselves an uppercut as well.
 
I'd take 3 top 10 picks for Reid everyday of the week. If North get pick 3 for McKay i'd probably do 2&3 + 2nd Rnd for 1 as well.

Reid is far away in front of the pack in this draft but i don't think he's on the same level as JHF, Rowell, Daicos, Petracca etc.

5, 6, 7 from GWS Watson, Sanders, Caddy > Reid

2 & 3 + 2nd Rnd, Curtin, McKercher, Lorenz > Reid

Saying that i'm not sure the Godfather offers will be there for Reid this year. North need key position players and Curtin makes a lot of sense for them, GWS would be more likely but i'm not confident they will offer 3 top 10 picks for Reid if they get the Himmelberg compo. In that case take Reid and we still have the best player in the draft win-win scenario.
 
I'm going to leave this thread alone in the future but I just want to say this. So far for everyone to consider a swap out of pick 1/Harley Reid it's been pretty consistent on 3 high end picks which we probably won't get offered anyway.

I have talked about the tiers of quality in this draft.

But lets just for a second say its GWS and it's 6,7,8. I don't want to straight use all those picks. I would only want 2 picks in that range and then to turn the 8 into 2 picks late in the first round. Then I want to keep a couple of mid to late 30's picks.

So that would be something along the lines inclusive of bidding of 7,8,14,18,21,34,38 in the draft. I don't care if we have to delist 3 contracted players and move them to the rookie list if that's the option we get. (working on 1 bid before 8, second bid before 14 and third bid after 21)

34 and 38 are Goad and Livingstone. Raw but exceptional physically talented ruck who has the right mindset and Coen Livingstone. Again raw but future FF who has the right attitude and is very aggressive at the ball and man.
 
briztoon said:
There's either a bit of, a) revision going on here, or b) failing memories.

Bailey Smith openly said he didn't want to move interstate, especially to Gold Coast.

St Kilda tweeted that they'd be coming hard after Ben King right after he got drafted by the Suns.

And, I can't remember if it was the Port or Adelaide recruiter, but one of them said in an interview right before the draft, to leave the top SA kids alone, and if you do draft them, the SA clubs would be coming after them in two years time when their rookie contracts expired.

Brisbane originally had pick 5, and our recruiters only had two names on our list of players to draft in the top 10. Sam Walsh, a die hard Lions fan (as in had Lions posters all over his bedroom walls and home gym in the garage), and Jye Caldwell.

After Caldwell, the next name on our recruiters list was Duursma. That's how our recruiters viewed the 2018 draft after the top 9. Caldwell, then Duursma. (no idea where our recruiters rated Butters).

Our recruiters viewed all the other kids as probable flight risks.

No one was talking Butters up as a top 10 prospect on the draft boards.

Thanks to Twomey, everyone was talking about the top 8 prospects in the draft, as Twomey coined it, the elite 8. Walsh, Rankine, Lukosius, Rozee, King, King, Smith and Blakey. Then Tarryn Thomas made a late push to make it 9 elite talents in the one draft.

Two of those kids were club tied as NGA kids.

All three SA kids were spoken about as flight risks if drafted out of SA. Same with King, King and Smith out of Vic.


You're taking pot shots at Freo for exactly the same thing your club did last draft, splitting a top pick. There's no guarantee your trade works out any better.

I'm not defending Freo here, just pointing out glass houses and blinkers.
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If there was an elite 8 it makes even less sense to trade out two picks comfortably inside the top 8. I hate Port but in my opinion they dominated that trade and draft. Recruiters and clubs can say what they like about going after kids, that would have no impact on my decision to draft a kid.

When did I say my club made a great decision splitting last year? As of now I’m happy with how that trade is working out but if Ginbey and Hewitt turn out to be flops and Wardlaw stays healthy and dominates then I would also happily point out that example as a bad decision.
 

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WCE_phil said:
I'm going to leave this thread alone in the future but I just want to say this. So far for everyone to consider a swap out of pick 1/Harley Reid it's been pretty consistent on 3 high end picks which we probably won't get offered anyway.

I have talked about the tiers of quality in this draft.

But lets just for a second say its GWS and it's 6,7,8. I don't want to straight use all those picks. I would only want 2 picks in that range and then to turn the 8 into 2 picks late in the first round. Then I want to keep a couple of mid to late 30's picks.

So that would be something along the lines inclusive of bidding of 7,8,14,18,21,34,38 in the draft. I don't care if we have to delist 3 contracted players and move them to the rookie list if that's the option we get. (working on 1 bid before 8, second bid before 14 and third bid after 21)

34 and 38 are Goad and Livingstone. Raw but exceptional physically talented ruck who has the right mindset and Coen Livingstone. Again raw but future FF who has the right attitude and is very aggressive at the ball and man
Click to expand...

Any chance the AFL would let us pre-list Livingston as part of a compo package? Didn’t they do something similar with GC? Another couple of extra list spots would also be nice.
 
WCE_phil said:
I'm going to leave this thread alone in the future but I just want to say this. So far for everyone to consider a swap out of pick 1/Harley Reid it's been pretty consistent on 3 high end picks which we probably won't get offered anyway.

I have talked about the tiers of quality in this draft.

But lets just for a second say its GWS and it's 6,7,8. I don't want to straight use all those picks. I would only want 2 picks in that range and then to turn the 8 into 2 picks late in the first round. Then I want to keep a couple of mid to late 30's picks.

So that would be something along the lines inclusive of bidding of 7,8,14,18,21,34,38 in the draft. I don't care if we have to delist 3 contracted players and move them to the rookie list if that's the option we get. (working on 1 bid before 8, second bid before 14 and third bid after 21)

34 and 38 are Goad and Livingstone. Raw but exceptional physically talented ruck who has the right mindset and Coen Livingstone. Again raw but future FF who has the right attitude and is very aggressive at the ball and man.
Click to expand...
7 picks inside 40. Do it.

100% delisting contracted player and re-rookie

Love it.


On Pixel 6 Pro using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Hello, do you think that you might keep pick 1 but bid on Jed Walter? Or trade it to gold coast so they can get a player before the academy players? I realise you can't trade them pick 1 and get them to promise to not take Reid ( although I am sure some Melbourne clubs could get away with it. Daicos went pick 4 after all).
 
sydney_gws said:
Hello, do you think that you might keep pick 1 but bid on Jed Walter? Or trade it to gold coast so they can get a player before the academy players? I realise you can't trade them pick 1 and get them to promise to not take Reid ( although I am sure some Melbourne clubs could get away with it. Daicos went pick 4 after all).
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Suns would find it difficult to trade for pick 1. Doing so would wipe out the picks needed to pay for their three academy kids. Would need to involve top line players.
 
Obeanie1 said:
Would one player be an egg in a basket.

Not eggs plural?
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Its not 1 player though. Its just the notion that pick 36 needs to be as good as a pick 8. It can be if we draft correctly

Its easier to turn pick 36 into a player worthy of pick 8 then pick 8 into a player worthy of pick 1 id say so the inherent risk lies on the other end
 

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Wce17 said:
Any chance the AFL would let us pre-list Livingston as part of a compo package? Didn’t they do something similar with GC? Another couple of extra list spots would also be nice.
Click to expand...

Better chance predicting tonights Power Ball numbers, than guessing what the AFL might or might not let us do.

The AFL only help GC and the other Tin Rattler Clubs to make them more competitive and by such less financially depended upon AFL coffers for their annual subsidy.

We on the other hand are rolling in bugs bunny, so the AFL wouldn’t give a flying * how long our rebuild would take.

We will make good profits regardless of where we finish on the ladder.

Sometimes your greatest strength can also be a weakness.
 
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sydney_gws said:
Hello, do you think that you might keep pick 1 but bid on Jed Walter? Or trade it to gold coast so they can get a player before the academy players? I realise you can't trade them pick 1 and get them to promise to not take Reid ( although I am sure some Melbourne clubs could get away with it. Daicos went pick 4 after all).
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Your first point - I would definitely bid on Walters unless the Suns did a sweetheart deal with us on their R1 - currently 7. By us not bidding at pick 1, they will save on finding 386 points. (Maths : 3,000 - 2,517 x 80%)

Next - under what scenario do you think the Suns would have the picks to tempt pick 1? Within the first 2 rounds, they currently hold picks 7, 26 and 30 with a future R1 and R2. That buddle alone would not get pick 1 and then where are their points for 3 academy bids!!
 
GoEaglesGoSGIO said:
Too many eggs in one basket and is just rushing the rebuild when it needs to be slower and more measured.
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I understand you calling it rushing the rebuild but not "too many eggs in one basket" ?

Trading out pick 1 would avoid "too many eggs in one basket" - this suggestion by Phil is diversifying not concentrating the picks. The only thing it is concentrating is the age profile of our list.

The only downsides to taking 7 picks (7,8,14,18,21,34,38) in the draft is that we have not been great at development and this give us 20 players who are 21 or under in 2024 plus the ability to give the kids games in early years.

That would be offset by the fact that we currently only have 1 player of value that in 2024 will be turning 22, 23 or 24 and that would be Bailey Williams.

Whilst I love seeing the likes of Ginbey, Hewett and Long getting games this year, I would really prefer to be seeing first year players develop their craft at WAFL with the occasional game in the seniors.
 
kranky al said:
Finished this off tonight:



2016 andrew mcgrath vs ben ainsworth and sam petrovski-seaton

2017 win 6 - cameron rayner vs luke davies-uniake and jaiden stephenson

2018 sam walsh vs max king and ben king

2019 matt rowell vs kachlan ash and fischer mc asey

2020 jamarra ugle-hagan vs logan mcdonalds and denver granger -barras

2021 jhf vs nick daicos and josh rachele (daicos was a f/a touted as pick 1)

2022 aaron cadman vs harry sheezel and Elijah tsatsas



Im pretty comfortable holding on to pick 1 at this stage.
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Bolded are the ones I'd have gone 4+6 over 1. I'd also argue that talent identification has probably gotten better over the last 10 years or so.
For me, it's more a 50/50 propostion. When I factor in TI improvement, I'd probably go 4+6, draft dependant of course.

I suppose the question is just how good we thing Reid will be? (I'm also a big Watson fan)


2001 Luke hodge vs polak and sampi

2002 brendon goddard vs tim walsh and steven salopek

2003 adam cooney vs farren ray and kepler bradley

2004 brett deledio vs richard tambling and tom williams

2005 was your first win- marc murphy vs josh kennedy and beau dowler

2006 bryce gibbs vs matthew leuenberger and mitchell thorp

2007 matthew kreuzer vs cale morton and david myers

2008 win 2 - jack watts vs hamish hartlett and chris yarran

2009 tom scully vs anthony morabito and gary rohan

2010 win 3 david swallow vs andrew gaff and reece conca (very close)

2011 win 4 - Jonathan patton vs will hoskin elliot and chad wingard

2012 lachie winfield vs jimmy toumpas and jackson macrae (Macrae - This has to be a win)

2013 win 5 - tom boyd vs the bont and matthew scharenburg

2014 paddy mccartin vs jarred picket and caleb marchbank (Draw)

2015 jacob weitering vs clayton oliver and aaron francis

2016 andrew mcgrath vs ben ainsworth and sam petrovski-seaton

2017 win 6 - cameron rayner vs luke davies-uniake and jaiden stephenson

2018 sam walsh vs max king and ben king (I really like Walsh but I'd still take the twin towers)

2019 matt rowell vs kachlan ash and fischer mc asey

2020 jamarra ugle-hagan vs logan mcdonalds and denver granger -barras (Pretty close to draw)

2021 jhf vs nick daicos and josh rachele (daicos was a f/a touted as pick 1) - No chance as FS but you still have to go 4 + 6

2022 aaron cadman vs harry sheezel and Elijah tsatsas (Too early but if I had to pick right now, it'd be 4+6)
 
AsterixTheGaul said:
I understand you calling it rushing the rebuild but not "too many eggs in one basket" ?

Trading out pick 1 would avoid "too many eggs in one basket" - this suggestion by Phil is diversifying not concentrating the picks. The only thing it is concentrating is the age profile of our list.

The only downsides to taking 7 picks (7,8,14,18,21,34,38) in the draft is that we have not been great at development and this give us 20 players who are 21 or under in 2024 plus the ability to give the kids games in early years.

That would be offset by the fact that we currently only have 1 player of value that in 2024 will be turning 22, 23 or 24 and that would be Bailey Williams.

Whilst I love seeing the likes of Ginbey, Hewett and Long getting games this year, I would really prefer to be seeing first year players develop their craft at WAFL with the occasional game in the seniors.
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Too many eggs in the one draft as opposed to picks itself if that makes sense. Having 7 players off contract at the same time and tied together is going to be ugly too mind you. I just think you want to stagnate your list a bit better

3 1st round draft picks etc is why GWS and Gold Coast have the salary cap messes they do have. Hard to give 3 players 600k a year each all at the same time. Easier to give 1 Harley Reid 800k a yearl , then in 12 months time you got your next pick 1 to give 800k too
 
I recon we're going to land Naughton, to go along with Fisher and Oscar Allen.
Pretty sure we're trying to make up a team of Characters from The Lost Boys.

Fisher - Edgar Frog (Corey Feldman
Allen - David Powers (Kiefer Suttherland)
Naughton - Paul (Brook McCarter) (also Lou Gramm from Foreigner who wrote/song Lost in the Shadows from the same movie)

Who is next on our radar?
A young Tom Hawkins perhaps?
1687409814610.png
 
eaglespremiers said:
Harley's been named at Full Forward for the Pioneers game against the Northern Knights on Sunday:
View attachment 1718858
Will be there to watch in person.
Incidentally all four of the Pioneers boys listed on the Vic Country squad will be playing in this game.
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Is he being hidden forward so we don’t take him and are more likely to trade the pick?
 
ArdentEagle said:
Just watched the Freijah vids, he has that Jack Macrae hunch, similar kicking technique too. Similar height.
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Now most people are probably going to disagree with me here.

But the Jack Macrae's of the world are a dying position and role. Average speed, average kicking and more outside than in. Macrae might be the best at it still in the AFL but just look at similar big names who's career trajectory has gone down hill rapidly since the rule changes to stand and 6,6,6.

It's probably why I rate him significantly lower than a lot of others do.
 
WCE_phil said:
Now most people are probably going to disagree with me here.

But the Jack Macrae's of the world are a dying position and role. Average speed, average kicking and more outside than in. Macrae might be the best at it still in the AFL but just look at similar big names who's career trajectory has gone down hill rapidly since the rule changes to stand and 6,6,6.

It's probably why I rate him significantly lower than a lot of others do.
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Yep - It makes sense.

He's just so damn gifted at finding the ball, still a pretty good tackler too. I think and hope what might keep players like him viable is outstanding football nous. I personally believe if you have that, you can still carve out a career despite some deficiencies.

I suppose Caleb Daniel is another. A midget but great nous and nice kick. (Not the same type of player but still has made it work with deficiencies due to MENSA level footy IQ)

I've got a weakness for players like that. (I love the look of Watson from this draft, despite his size )
 
GoEaglesGoSGIO said:
Too many eggs in the one draft as opposed to picks itself if that makes sense. Having 7 players off contract at the same time and tied together is going to be ugly too mind you. I just think you want to stagnate your list a bit better

3 1st round draft picks etc is why GWS and Gold Coast have the salary cap messes they do have. Hard to give 3 players 600k a year each all at the same time. Easier to give 1 Harley Reid 800k a yearl , then in 12 months time you got your next pick 1 to give 800k too
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Why are we concerned with contract negotiations when discussing draft strategy?

I'll take superior draft picks and the associated salary cap headaches over inferior selections and a comfortable salary cap.

Really bizarre direction you've taken your thought processes in.
 
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